I have Edwin Encarnacion on my team. I get three keepers. The only player on my team that I know for sure is a keeper is Matt Holliday. Other candidates would be Curtis Granderson and Paul Konerko, with the possibility of Elvis Andrus and Brandon Phillips. Encarnacion’s 2012 numbers are keeper worthy but he’ll likely only have first base eligibility next year. He’ll also be 30 on Opening Day next year and hasn’t had a year anything close to this in the past. Is he a keeper to build on? Should I go with some of the other proven options? Should I take the extra picks and take my chances on the rest of the non-keeper pool? (we sacrifice are first 3 rounds of picking to keep 3 players.) Oh and I am probably going to be picking 11th overall out of 12.
Phillip in Idaho
Gosh, Phillip, this is tough. I really liked Eddy coming into this year because he had third base eligibility AND was going after round nine in most drafts. In a snake draft scenario where you’d lose one of your first 3 rounds to keep him I might pass and roll the dice that you land a better player. If you are for sure keeping Matt Holiday then you are losing your first round pick, pick 11. In a typical snake draft, you will be picking again at 22 and then every 11 picks after that…until the non-keeper rounds start up. It’s hard to say right now how guys are going to fall in 2013. Remember, the 2012 season hasn’t even wrapped up yet.
What I encourage you to do is to table this decision until you have a good idea of preseason rankings. Maybe have seen or participated in a few mock drafts. If not, do so well before the keeper deadline comes around. The reason being is that you will have a pretty good idea who will be at you 22, 33, and 44.
It is going to come down to what your options are. In round two, pick 22, if think that you can draft a guy like Albert Pujols, laugh, but where would you draft him at? Then you need to decide if Albert is going to bounce back to elite form after 2 years of really slow starts. Maybe Curtis Granderson is a viable option in that spot (I only wish he stole bases still). I certainly would not Keep Eddy in round 2, so if you are not going to keep Granderson, I say only keep Holliday and re-draft.
Now if you like Granderson, and are keeping Holliday you are now trying to figure out who is going to be the 33rd overall guy. I would guess that the first base talent at 33 and beyond is going to be MUCH better than a position like shortstop. So I may very well consider keeping Andrus. Know that I am not sold on him as a third rounder because I think better players might just be available. You have to think with the emergence of guys like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Jason Kipnis to the higher ranks, and with struggling or aging stars such as Pujols, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira that the first few rounds of next years drafts might be pretty wild.
Ultimately it is hard to figure out who is going to be ranked where in September. Try us at the end of October when our early rankings will be out!
Thanks for the question Phillip and here is to 36 more Ask Nash’s next year!