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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 20

Michael Dixon —  May 20, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.

Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.


Another week, another set of Dixon’s Picks. This is something of an odd week in that most of the good two-start aren’t readily available in most leagues. The bulk of the others aren’t people I’d gamble on at this point. So, we have to improvise.

The first two names you’ll read are available in most leagues. But, that only gets us to four starts. Call me crazy, but I like looking at six good matchups per week. So, that’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to look at a few other guys for one start.

Now, I will say that both of the bonus picks are actually two-start guys. But in both cases, they’re going up against an offense that you just don’t stream pitchers against. So, I’d suggest that you couple these two together and use each in his best matchup.

Now, let’s get to it.

 

  • Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves — Probable Starts: Monday vs. Minnesota Twins, Sunday at New York Mets

Here’s a prime example of where pitcher’s numbers early in the year are inconclusive. Yes, Teheran enters the week with relatively unimpressive numbers, sporting a 4.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. But while those aren’t impressive, they don’t tell the complete story.

When Teheran took the mound on April 23 against the Rockies, his ERA was 7.31. Since then, that total has been reduced by nearly three full points. Welcome to the world of pitcher’s stats in the early part of the year. They are way out of whack. Starting with that Rockies start, three of his four most recent outings were quality starts. Even the one that wasn’t a QS wasn’t terrible in the ERA department, allowing two runs over 5.1 innings.

The recipe for success has been pretty simple over that time. In those four starts, Teheran has walked a total of one hitter. In the three before that, he had seven walks. Nothing new here, but walks are ERA killers. If you don’t issue the free passes, you’re chances to survive are great.

Now, there are still some drawbacks with Julio Teheran. The main one is that he’s a contact pitcher, so he allows a lot of hits. As a matter of fact, he’s never had an outing in 2013 where he allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. Fortunately, these aren’t the teams to expose those flaws. The Mets sport one of baseball’s worst batting averages and OBP, while the Twins are decidedly average in both. Remember, that start will be in Atlanta, so the Twins will not have the DH, either.

Teheran is moving in the right direction, and these are two opponents that will allow him to keep heading that way.

Teheran’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 5 14 3 10 2-0 3.21 1.21

 

  • Josh Lindblom, Texas Rangers – Probable Starts: Monday vs. Oakland Athletics, Sunday at Seattle Mariners

This is something you won’t see in too many Dixon’s Picks — a pitcher making his first ever start in the week I’m suggesting you pick him up. But there a few reasons why Josh Lindblom is a good pick this week.

  • I won’t call the A’s a bad offense. They are a typical Billy Beane team in that they don’t hit for a high average, but do draw a lot of walks. As a result, they’re one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the league. But right now, they’re a struggling team. Even their wins are generally pretty low-scoring. 
  • Seattle is a Bottom-10 offense in most major categories.
  • While he hasn’t been particularly prolific at strikeouts this season, Lindblom has been a strikeout pitcher throughout his career. Both Seattle and Oakland are in the Top-10 in the majors in strikeouts. It’s nice to have a category that you can reliably fall back on if things go south.
  • Though the sample size is somewhat limited (100.2 innings — all relief), Lindblom’s career Major League ERA is 3.31, his WHIP is 1.262, with nearly one strikeout per inning.
  • Lindblom has been excellent in Triple-A this season, sporting a 4-0 record, 2.08 ERA, and 0.877 WHIP in 43.1 innings.

Now, the drawback is that he’s really economical with his pitches, there’s a pretty good chance that Lindblom will be limited to five, maybe six innings this week, especially in the first start. But the good news is that while he’s on the mound, there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll bring things. Remember, the Rangers are a contending team. When Alexi Ogando went down with an injury, Texas had to bring up a pitcher they were confident in. If they weren’t going anywhere in the standings, they might have gone with a more highly touted guy to get his feet wet, even if the experience was rough. This tells me that they believe in Lindblom for a few starts. So do I.

Lindblom’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
11 3 10 4 14 1-0 2.45 1.27

 

  • Scott Kazmir, Cleveland Indians – Recommended Start: Monday vs. Seattle Mariners 

We’ve already gone over why the Mariners are a good matchup for pitchers. Kazmir, in particular, can be exceptionally dangerous against them, as he enters Monday striking out more than one hitter per inning. Actually, even in Kazmir’s worst years, he still struck out hitters at a good rate.

Like Teheran, Scott Kazmir is a prime example of how stats for pitchers can be deceiving. Yes, he had a terrible opening outing against the Astros of all teams (more on that later, but remember that he issued three walks in that game). But in the 22 subsequent innings, he’s posted an ERA of 3.68, and a WHIP of 1.18. Better yet, he’s struck out 24 batters.

Now, over the weekend, Kazmir will take on the Red Sox at Fenway. The Sox haven’t been especially great over the last few weeks, and I do wonder if they’re true contenders, but I still don’t like that matchup at Fenway. There are just too many good hitters, and too many ways to get in trouble in that park.

But the Mariners are a good matchup. With their tendency to strikeout a lot, you could be looking at a double-digit strikeout day. I won’t go as far as to predict that, but you’ll see plenty from Kazmir.

Kazmir’s Projections against Seattle

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
7 2 5 1 9 1-0 2.57 0.86

 

  • Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics – Recommended Start: Sunday at Houston Astros

This is an interesting one. Colon is actually Lindblom’s scheduled opponent, but I just don’t like matchup. Not in Arlington, anyway. While I am not enamored with the matchup against the Rangers, the A’s will leave Arlington to a more pitcher-friendly part of the state, Houston. Actually, the city and ballpark aren’t particularly pitcher-friendly, but the Astros offense is, and that’s what counts here.

Not many pitchers will get into trouble against that offense. Really, when you’re facing a bad offense, the only way you get into trouble is to walk batters. Otherwise, they’re dependent on stringing two or three hits together, and that’s just not likely to happen too often. Say what you will about Bartolo Colon, but he will never beat himself on the mound. Wait, that’s awkward. Well, he doesn’t walk guys, let’s put it that way.

In 47.1 innings in 2013, Colon has issued two walks. Read that again, it is not a typo. TWO WALKS. This is where the ultimate question comes in. What is the worst that can happen? The Astros just don’t have the bats that can inflict serious damage on a pitcher who doesn’t help them out. Colon isn’t a strikeout guy, but Houston tends to bring out the inner Tom Seaver in all of its opponents. As a general rule, if you’re in need of a good start and see a guy on the waiver wire facing the Astros, sign him. Even if the guy is a contact guy who allows a lot of hits (like Colon), if he throws strikes, the outing will almost always be good, and sometimes even great.

Colon’s Projections against Houston

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
7 1 5 0 4 1-0 1.29 0.71

 

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Travis Wood

Michael Dixon —  May 16, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Those of you who read this week’s Dixon’s Picks have gotten something of a sneak preview here, but a guy who’s been one of the best pitchers throughout the early part of 2013 plays on the decidedly mediocre Chicago Cubs. Actually, four-fifths of their starting rotation has been solid, with Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Villanueva, and Scott Feldman producing solid statistics. If you’re good at math, you surely realize that I only counted three people there.

Joining that trio today is, Travis Wood, who has been the team’s best pitcher through the first month-and-a-half. Actually, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball throughout that time. Let’s take a look at what he’s done.

Date Opponent IP ER H BB K Dec.
4/4 @ Pirates 6 0 1 2 4 W
4/9 vs. Brewers 6.1 2 7 3 6 ND
4/16 vs. Rangers 7.1 2 5 3 3 L
4/22 @ Reds 6.1 2 4 2 5 ND
4/27 @ Marlins 6 2 3 1 5 W
5/2 vs. Padres 7.2 3 4 1 3 L
5/7 vs. Cardinals 6.2 1 5 2 8 W
5/13 vs. Rockies 7 0 2 3 2 W

Giving him a pretty line of this:

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
53.1  12  31  17  36  4-2  2.03  0.90 

Also, in eight outings he’s posted a perfect, league leading, eight quality starts. That’s not always indicative of a great start but if it’s done every outing, it’s a sign of consistency and the numbers will be low. But none of that matters now. If he’s available to you now, you want to know what he’s going to do, not what’s been done. So, let’s take a look.

 

What Worries Me

I like Wood, I really do. But plenty concerns me here about the rest of the season. Let’s start with this:

Entering 2013, Wood had a career ERA of 4.22. Just for the sake of argument, let’s say that he finishes the season with 200 innings pitched and a 3.60 ERA. Yes, you probably would have taken that in the beginning of the season, but that would be a 4.17 ERA from here on out.

What if his ERA is a little worse? Let’s say closer to 4.00. What if he doesn’t hit 200 innings? Between the majors and minors, he was right around that mark last year, but 200 Major League innings is quite a bit different from 156, and 41.1 in the minors. It’s going to be very hard for him to sustain this kind of run through September.

Also, remember that the weather’s been a little cool in the midwest and east throughout the 2013 season. There have been a lot of weather delays/postponements, and general cold weather in most of the Cubs’ games. 

That’s going to change pretty soon. When the weather gets hot, the balls carry better, the pitchers get tired easier, and the conditions are generally more favorable for hitters. Wrigley Field is certainly not a pitcher’s park, nor are most of the NL Central’s ballparks. So, when the conditions become good for hitters, they become really good. For a pitcher like Wood, who has even struggled with walks this year, it seems like a recipe for disaster.

On the positive end, I will say that I think an offense with Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, and Alfonso Soriano occupying the heart of it will eventually start scoring some runs and break out of the Bottom-10 of the league. But the Cubs bullpen is one of the worst in the league this year, and was last year, as well. The offense may score some more runs in support of Wood and the rest of the Cubs’ pitchers, but don’t be surprised to see plenty potential wins squandered in the late innings.

Say what you will about the win but in a standard league, it is one-quarter of the fantasy pitcher’s stats. For a guy who’s not a big strikeout guy that you’re probably expecting an ERA/WHIP drop from, not being able to pencil in a decent win total is a problem. 

 

What I like

The scenario I posted above is a bit of a concern. I won’t say that I expect this kind of production from Wood for the rest of the season, but I do expect him to stay hot for a while. Assuming there are no injuries and that Wood takes the ball every fifth game for the Cubbies, look at his remaining probable first half outings.

  • at Mets
  • at Reds
  • vs White Sox
  • at Angels
  • vs Reds
  • at Mets
  • vs Astros
  • at Brewers
  • at A’s
  • vs Angels
  • vs Cardinals

There are a few tough teams in there for sure, but Wood has already done a good job against some good offenses this year. Yes, his stats have been padded a bit by the likes of the Padres and Marlins, but he’s done just fine against the Brewers, Rangers, Reds, Cardinals, and Rockies.

When you start thinking about some of the better hitters that Wood will face, the outlook doesn’t look too bad. What do Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Ike Davis, Josh Hamilton, and Adam Dunn all have in common? Well, they’re all dangerous hitters. And no, I am not putting Dunn on the same level as Votto, but he can run into a ball on occasion. But they’re also all lefties, and lefties have hit just over .200 against Wood in his career. So, all of a sudden, even the bad matchups don’t look so bad.

 

What I think

There are no doubt some drawbacks here. Wood’s done extremely well this year, which means that you can expect things to level out at some point.

There are two questions to ask here, though?

  1. How much will they level out?
  2. How soon will it happen?

Question 1: I am expecting something around a 3.60 ERA this year from Wood. But a 4.22 ERA from this point on isn’t bad. Also, It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see him closer to 3.40, and I don’t think he’ll finish much higher than 3.80. So, I am not expecting too much of a leveling off, even if he doesn’t remain a Cy Young contender all year.

Question 2: I like the matchups for the rest of the first half. I especially like them if the Angels continue to struggle like they have.

So, what I’d advise you to do is to go out and grab him right now. He may eventually level out a little bit, but I haven’t seen any signs of that happening yet. Worrying about leveling out is fine, but don’t act on those fears until it starts to happen.

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 13

Michael Dixon —  May 13, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks! I hope that everyone had a good weekend.

This isn’t the best week when it comes to two-start guys. There aren’t many available guys out there going against two bad offenses this week. So, that means that you’ve gotta take some chances. But, that’s a big part of streaming anyway. So, let’s take a look at some guys to consider gambling on.

 

  • A.J. Griffin, Oakland Athletics — Probable Starts: Monday vs. Texas Rangers, Sunday vs. Kansas City Royals

I’ve been a fan of A.J. Griffin all year, so I guess there’s no reason that he shouldn’t be here. At first glance, his 3.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP look decent, but probably not great. But he’s taken the mound seven times, recording five quality starts, and only one really bad outing, which came against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. To show you what one bad start can do this time of the year, Griffin’s ERA in his other six outings is 2.68, while his WHIP is 1.14. That looks much better.

As far as this week goes, I get some skepticism about starting him against the Rangers. That’s certainly a lineup that can produce a bad day. But if 2012 is any indicator, Oakland isn’t exactly Texas’ happy place. They hit only .212 in the Coliseum last year, hitting only five home runs. The fewest of any of any AL West stadium (in 2012). Oakland’s big dimensions hurt a lot of bats, and the Rangers’ potent lineup hasn’t been much different. Remember that while the 2013 Rangers are a good team, their pitching is a big reason why. Texas are currently hitting .263. They did lose Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, and Mike Napoli. So, in a pitcher’s park, they can be had.

The Royals are always an interesting team for me to include here. They are one of the better hitting teams in the league in terms of average, but are in the bottom-third of the MLB in scoring runs. So, I have no reason to believe that Griffin won’t do well against them, even if a few more guys get on base than you’d normally like.

There’s also one more bonus with Griffin. While he only gets one start next week, it comes against the Astros. So, you can count on a pretty good outing there, too.

Griffin’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 5 14 3 11 1-1 3.21 1.21

 

  • Jason Vargas, Los Angeles Angels — Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Kansas City Royals, Sunday vs. Chicago White Sox

Much like Griffin, Jason Vargas is an old friend who I’ve written about more times than I care to count. You may be asking yourself a question. How in the world can I suggest throwing a guy who just had a rough outing against the Astros? Well, the two outings before were gems, and the one before that was not bad at all. Take a look, going in reverse chronological order.

Opponent IP H ER BB K
Baltimore Orioles 9 3 0 2 3
at Seattle Mariners 8 6 2 2 7
Texas Rangers 7 7 3 3 7

So yes, the outing against the Astros was bad, but I’m not giving up on a guy who came into that start really hot.The start against the Royals should be an interesting one. As we went over with Griffin, they get a lot of hits, but don’t score a lot of runs. Vargas gives up a lot of hits, but not a lot of runs. So, expect some stranded runners there.

As for the White Sox, they are a bottom two offensive team in just about every offensive category. Mind you, that’s not bottom two in the American League, but bottom two in all of baseball. Other than the Marlins, every team in the DH-free National League has scored more runs, gets on base more, etc. That’s amazing.

Heading into Angel Stadium, it’s hard to see those numbers going up too much. You have to play odds here and while the Astros defied those odds once against Vargas, don’t bet on it happening again. Make your own decision about the start against the Royals, but the White Sox are a pitcher-friendly opponent in 2013.

Vargas’ Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 5 12 5 11 1-0 3.46 1.30

 

  • Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs – Probable Starts: Monday vs. Colorado Rockies, Sunday vs. New York Mets

Do you know that Travis Wood enters this week with a WHIP under 1.00? Do you know that every one of his outings has been a quality start? This includes outings against the Brewers, Rangers, Reds (in Cincinnati), and Cardinals. Do you know that over the last two months of 2012, Wood had an ERA of 3.56, and a WHIP of 1.10?

Well, whether you knew it or not, it’s all true.

So, even though the Rockies have been pretty solid with the bats both at Coors Field and away from it, I feel alright with Wood against that lineup. Yes, they could make me eat those words, but their numbers were also aided by a really strong start to the season. Over the last few weeks, Colorado has normalized a little bit. You may not like the matchup, but I’m not scared of it.

I’m definitely not scared of the matchup against the Mets over the weekend. They have done a decent job scoring runs, but nothing more than that. Wood has done well against far better offenses this year. A red-hot pitcher should do just fine against that offense. Grab Wood and ride him until this hot streak ends. He’s still on an awful lot of waiver wires. Give him a roster spot — at least for the week.

Wood’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 4 11 4 11 2-0 2.57 1.07

 

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 6

Michael Dixon —  May 6, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks and welcome to May! Although, if you were in some parts of this country last week, you might be going out looking for Christmas trees. Here in California, it’s definitely May and baseball season is in full swing now. Actually, I’ll be heading out to my first baseball game of the season this week.

But enough about me and enough about the weather. Let’s good at some good pitching matchups for you fantasy baseball players out there looking for a bit of a short-term jolt.

Shall we? Good. Let’s do it.

 

  • Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres – Probable Starts: Monday vs. Miami Marlins, Sunday at Tampa Bay Rays

If you remember right, I recommended Andrew Cashner last week for two reasons. 

  1. The matchup with the Cubs was a good one.
  2. He’s going twice this week in favorable matchups.

Now, the Cubs may be a good matchup, but they roughed Cashner up pretty good. Still, I’m looking beyond that.

The bottom line is that the Marlins are a terrible lineup, and they won’t even have Giancarlo Stanton for a while. The Rays are starting to heat up a little bit, but they’re still statistically a middle-of-the-road offense in most categories. 

If you like to stream and play the waiver wire with pitchers, you’re just not going to find a more favorable situation than this one. Well, maybe if you subbed the Astros for the Rays, but that’s just too ideal. 

I’m looking for a strong week from a pitcher that I still have moderately high hopes for. Everyone has a rough outing now and then, and Cashner’s still finding himself as a starter. Granted, you probably won’t get more than six innings unless he’s really economical with pitches, but the innings you get should be quality. 

Cashner’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
11 4 9 3 9 1-0 3.27 1.09

 

  • Nick Tepesch, Texas Rangers – Probable Starts: Monday at Chicago Cubs, Sunday at Houston Astros

Yes, Wrigley Field and Minute Maid Park are both hitter-friendly. But the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are two pitcher-friendly lineups. The Cubs have some dangerous hitters, but are one of the worst offenses in the league in nearly every category. The Astros have been better than expected with the bats this year, but that’s not saying much. They’re still mediocre, at best, in just about every category. 

What makes Nick Tepesch such a good stream option (beyond the matchups and his availability) is that he doesn’t walk hitters. Even in the minors, he found the strike zone. When you do that and make hitters get hits to get on base, the numbers start to work in your favor as a pitcher. Remember, even good hitters get out seven out of ten times, when they don’t walk.

Granted, he doesn’t strike many out, either. But the Astros have a way of making opposing pitchers look like Nolan Ryan. They strike out nearly 10 times per game, which is awful for anyone, but especially an American League team. Even a bad DH should make contact with the ball more often than not. 

Tepesch enters the week with a solid 3.54/1.18 ERA/WHIP. There have been a few rough patches, but those game against much better offenses than either of these two, and he’s had some good outings against much better offenses, as well. 

With rookies, I tend to be careful, but that’s in a long term sense. A control pitcher in a week like this one should be just fine for your team. Throw in the fact that the Rangers are much better than either team, meaning two wins are quite possible, and this is a good addition.

Tepesch’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 3 11 2 10 2-0 2.08 1.00

 

  • Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles – Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Kansas City Royals, Sunday at Minnesota Twins

In many ways, Wei-Yin Chen reminds me a lot of his team, the Baltimore Orioles. At the beginning of the year, there was plenty of doubt as to whether this team could be contenders again. On the same note, there were questions about whether or not Chen could produce the way he did last year, when he won 12 games with a decent 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Not spectacular, but not bad, either. 

So far, both Chen and the Orioles have been just fine. Chen has thrown had four quality starts in his six outings, and only one of them was what you’d call bad. Granted, that was his last outing, but he was solid all year to that point, and solid against some good offenses. The Royals get on base well, but they don’t score runs, while the Twins are average to just flat out bad across the board. 

Chen is a little different from Tepesch in that he allows some free passes, but does a good job of getting the rest of the hitters out. As a result, they finished April with eerily similar WHIP’s (1.18 for Tepesch, 1.19 for Chen).

Like Tepesch, he’s been solid this year and looking at two favorable matchups. The track record is good enough to give him a chance for a week like this one.  

Chen’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 4 9 3 9 1-0 2.77 0.92

 

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of April 29

Michael Dixon —  April 29, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of slgckgc.

Photo courtesy of slgckgc.

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks!

This week is a little unusual in that there aren’t many great waiver wire additions with two favorable matchups. I’ll generally look for three waiver wire guys going twice that week, totaling six starts. This week, finding six starts from three guys was a little more difficult, so we’re going to have to go outside of the box for six good matchups from waiver wire guys. Still, we will get to six. Let’s get to it.

 

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox — Probable Starts: Tuesday at Texas Rangers, Sunday at Kansas City Royals

Two weeks in a row for Jose Quintana making Dixon’s Picks. Some bad weather kept him from two starts last week, but he should be good this week.

It’s not that either of these opponents are bad. The Rangers are a Top-10 offense in pretty much every category, while the Royals have plenty of talent in the order. But Quintana is throwing the ball really well right now and as I said last week, Quintana’s very good when he’s hot. Right now, he’s hot. Look at his numbers since a rough outing in his first start of the year:

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
18.2 2 10 4 17 2-0 0.96 0.750

He’ll keep it going this week. It probably won’t be that strong, but I fully expect two quality starts.

Quintana’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 4 11 5 11 1-0 2.77  1.23

—BONUS PICKS—

Again, this week is a little different. We realistically can’t predict two good outings from any more waiver wire guys, but we can look at a couple single start guys. Let’s do it.

 

Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres — Probable Start: Wednesday at Chicago Cubs

A rough-hitting Chicago Cubs lineup isn’t the only reason that Andrew Cashner makes this list, though it helps. It also helps that after starting the year in the San Diego bullpen, Cashner has turned in two good outings against the Giants, picking up a win in his last start, allowing one run over six innings.

All of that is good but realize that with a Wednesday outing will also put Cashner in position to start twice next week — against the Marlins and Rays.

Throw all of that together, and you’re looking at a pretty good pitcher to pick up. If he stays in the San Diego rotation, he’ll still get Petco Park (if you’ve watched a game there this year, you know it’s still a pitcher’s yard). So, you might consider picking him up long term, but he should be a good addition for the next two weeks. Chances are pretty good you’ll be seeing his name in next week’s Dixon’s Picks.

Cashner’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
7 2 6 1 6 1-0 2.57 1.00

 

Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies — Probable Start: Tuesday at Los Angeles Dodgers

There are a lot of good hitters in the Dodgers lineup but right now, they’re just not clicking. Similarly, I wouldn’t exactly tell you that I’m President of the Jorge De La Rosa fan club, but he’s getting it done right now. It also helps that this start is at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium and not Coors Field which is, well, decidedly not pitcher friendly.

De La Rosa has been on a role. His overall ERA/WHIP of 2.86/1.16 is solid, but take a look at what he’s done since a rough performance in his first game.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
24 5 17 8 15 2-2 1.88 1.04

He’s been a little fortunate in that only one of those outings has been at Coors Field but as we established, this one isn’t at Coors Field either. Looking forward to the rest of the season, I am not high on any Rockies’ pitchers. But for one start in Los Angeles, give him a go.

De La Rosa’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
7 2 6 3 5 1-0 2.57 1.29

 

Jeremy Hefner, New York Mets — Probable Start: Tuesday at Miami Marlins

Other than Giancarlo Stanton, there is nobody in the Miami batting order who bats where they should bat on even an average MLB team.

Hefner’s been a bit up-and-down this year, but makes this list for two reason, beyond that he’s simply facing a bad offense in a pitcher-friendly park.

  1. His last outing, which came against the Dodgers, was solid. He didn’t pick up a win, but went seven innings, allowing one earned run, three walks, three hits, and four strikeouts. 
  2. His previous outing against the Marlins was strong. In it, he went six innings, allowed one run, allowed five hits, two walks, and struck out three.

So, he’s not only facing a bad team, but one he’s done well against this year, and is coming off of a good outing. When you’re streaming, you have to look beyond the numbers, especially early in the year, and find the right matchups. Jeremy Hefner is in in right matchup on Tuesday.

Hefner’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
7 1 5 1 4 1-0 1.29 0.86

 

David Phelps, New York Yankees — Probable Start: Wednesday vs. Houston Astros

The Marlins and Astros are in the same boat. They’ll be here a lot this year because of one simple question. What is the worst that can happen? With the Marlins, you have to worry about Stanton running into one. While the likes Chris Carter and Carlos Pena can do that for the Astros, they are much easier to pitch to.

David Phelps has some rough numbers this year, mostly because he’s been throwing out of the bullpen. It’s hard to judge any pitcher’s numbers for the first month, or even two of the season, but that’s especially true with relievers.

Wednesday’s outing should bring his numbers down, though. The Astros are just a bad team, and they strike out a lot. An awful lot. That’s going to work well for Phelps, as he’s recorded more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings on the young year. As is usually the case with young guys, especially those going from reliever to start, I don’t expect a long outing. But when he’s out there, Phelps should put up some rock solid numbers.

Phelps’ Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
5 1 3 3 8 1-0 1.80 1.20

 

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of April 22

Michael Dixon —  April 22, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

In 2012, Dixon’s Picks was not only something I did every week, but I really enjoyed it. So, here we are again.

You don’t win a fantasy baseball league without taking chances. Some of those are season-long chances, other are short-term ones, like, should I pick this waiver wire pitcher up for a few starts, or not?

The simple word for all of that is streaming. It’s a practice that some people hate, but many use, which is why I write these every week.

Who’s eligible, who’s not?. Well, anyone available in more than half of ESPN leagues (ESPN is my primary fantasy baseball site) is eligible. For the most part, these are guys who are scheduled to pitch twice during the week and for the benefit of you head-to-head guys, this will run every Monday. We all know that Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw won’t be claimed on any waiver wires. These guys won’t be that good for the length of the season, but they’re in situations with favorable matchups. Now, you ultimately decide whether or not these guys come to your team, but I’d suggest giving these guys a look.

Of course, I’m dealing with probable starts. Things like weather delays and injuries sometimes change that, let’s just hope it doesn’t happen too much.

Let’s get 2013′s first Dixon’s Picks underway…

 

Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins – Probable Starts: Monday at Minnesota Twins, Sunday vs. Chicago Cubs

Obviously, if you claim a Marlins’ player, you know that the run support will be thin, so they won’t exactly be bankable for wins. But they’ve had some solid pitching performances through the year, and Ricky Nolasco has been rock solid. Take a look at what he’s done through the first four starts of the year.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
23.1 6 23 6 15 0-2 3.86 1.24

That’s two out of four quality starts, and none of the outings were particularly bad. Remember, this early in the season, it doesn’t take much more than a bad inning or two to really inflate things like ERA and WHIP. So, he’s pitching well and getting to pitch at Target Field & Marlins Park against a middle of the road offense (Twins), and a struggling one (Cubs). Thus far, he’s gone twice against a strong Nationals team, and once against the Mets and Phillies.

Now, the downfall for Nolasco is that he’s not a high strikeout guy. But pitching against these hitters in these parks, contact shouldn’t be a huge problem. Yes, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, and even Alfonso Soriano are fine hitters, but nobody else really strikes fear into any pitcher. I’d fully expect two quality starts this week from the Marlins’ top guy.

Nolasco’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 5 12 4 10 1-0 3.46 1.23

 

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox - Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Cleveland Indians, Sunday vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Do you like gambling? If you do, then Jose Quintana is a guy that you should give a really strong look at this week. Yes, the Indians and Rays have some capable hitters on their rosters but right now, those are scuffling offenses and Quintana is pitching incredibly well.

We also know that Quintana is capable of keeping runners from crossing home plate when he is on. Take a look at his first three months of 2012 (he didn’t debut until May).

  • May: 1.76 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
  • June: 2.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
  • July: 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Perhaps a bit lucky with that June ERA, but also unlucky in July.

The point of all of that is that over his last two starts, Quintana has been pretty hot. Take a look at the numbers.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13.2 0 6 2 14 1-0 0.00 0.44

One of those games was a seven-inning, one-hit, no walk performance against the Indians. Another was a similarly dominant performance against the Blue Jays.

Now, I am not projecting that Quintana will continue at this pace for the season or even the week, but he can be worse than that and still pretty dang good. Those numbers are just gaudy. Right now, I don’t see Cleveland or Tampa halting that in a serious way. But going beyond this week a little bit, Quintana is 24, was a dominant pitcher in the minors and was solid in 2012 as a rookie. He’s available in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues. If you have a scuffling pitching staff or have one of many guys who have been hurt, Quintana might be a valuable addition beyond this week.

Quintana’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 4 12 4 11 1-0 2.57 1.14

 

Carlos Villanueva, Chicago Cubs - Probable Starts: Tuesday at Cincinnati Reds, Sunday at. Miami Marlins

I’d like to show you how Carlos Villanueva has done thus far in 2013, but let’s look at this start-by-start.

Opponent IP  ER H BB K ERA WHIP Dec.
at Atlanta 6.2 1 6 2 6 1.35 1.12 ND
vs. San Francisco 7.1 0 3 1 3 0.00 0.55 ND
vs. Texas 7 2 4 1 6 2.57 0.71 W
Total 21 3 13 4 15 1.29 0.81 1-0

Okay, Major League Baseball insists that teams who qualify for the Wild Card play-in game are playoff teams, so we’re going to go with that right now. All three of those teams made the playoffs in 2012. I make that point and I showed the start-by-start totals because I’m sure many of you are looking at that first opponent, the Cincinnati Reds, as a team that doesn’t exactly jump out as a classic stream opponent. With Shin Soo-Choo, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce, they’re one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, especially at home. Under normal circumstances, this is not a team you’d stream against.

But Villanueva has had three brilliant outings against very capable lineups this year, including a scorching Atlanta lineup.

I’d also point out that if you really don’t want to gamble, you could leave Villanueva on the bench on Tuesday, and pitch him over the weekend against the Miami Giancarlo’s Marlins. Now, you may see that and realize that I also advised Nolasco for that game. Obviously, if you need two wins on Sunday, that’s not going to work. But I would expect a low-scoring affair there and would have no problem throwing opposing pitchers, even if I can’t pick up more than one win.

Like Quintana, VIllanueva has a history of getting really hot. Now, his career is a little longer and while he’s not a bad pitcher, he’s not a great one. But when he’s hot, you want him on your team. Right now, he’s hot. You’ll certainly want him on your team when he’s facing the Marlins.

Now, I think Villanueva will do fine against the Reds this week, but I do understand if many of you don’t want to start him against Cincinnati. So, instead of just a total projection, I’ll give you a start-by-start one.

Villanueva’s Projections for the Week

  IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
at Cincinnati 6  3  6  2 4 ND 4.50 1.33 
at Miami 8 0 4 1 7 W 0.00 0.63 
Total 14 3 10 3 11 1-0 1.93 0.93 

 

 

 

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Replacing Injured Stars: Look Left on the Platoon

Michael Dixon —  April 18, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

I don’t know about you, but it seems to me like 2013 has been the year of the injury so far. Johnny Cueto, Jered Weaver, Zack Greinke, all out for a bit. On Monday, you’ll see the first 2013 installment of Dixon’s Picks, waiver wire pitchers who will help you in the short term, especially for that week. You’ll actually see that every Monday for the rest of the season.

But today, we’re going to try try to find out how to replace Yoenis Cespedes, Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez, and every other bat that seems to be on the shelf now.

Now, you can try for a young gun that your whole league has missed out on. But honestly, most young players worth having are probably on a roster already, or in the minor leagues. You can try to play guys on hot streaks but honestly, that’s going to have limited success. You don’t realize most hot streaks are even happening until the middle of them, and they may be just about wrapping up at that point. You can go for high steal guys, who are a threat to maybe score a lot of runs or hit .300 (Denard Span, Juan Pierre), but that’s probably only a good idea if you see your team needing steals. At this point, the season is too young to make that call.

Right now, we’re trying to fill the stat sheet as much as possible. You can do that with platoon guys, specifically the left-handed hitters in the platoon. To start, let’s take a look at some numbers of different left-handed hitters with different skills.

We’ll start with Barry Bonds, who one way or another, has more home runs than anyone in the history of the game.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 535  .303 .458 .626
vs. LHP 227 .289 .417 .569

Obviously Bonds was never a platoon player, nor was he ever available on any fantasy baseball waiver wires. But we’ll use him as a bit of a control, if you will. The slash stats are pretty close, while just over 70 percent of his career home runs came against right-handed pitching.

Now, let’s look at Josh Hamilton. Obviously, Hamilton isn’t going to be available in any fantasy leagues, either. He’s not the kind of player Bonds was, but we’ll just consider this level two of our tier, and I promise, this is going somewhere.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 120 .313 .378 .578
vs. LHP 43 .277 .324 .475

The slash stats are a bit more lopsided than Bonds. But those 120 homers make up 74 percent of his career total.

Two more guys to show. The first will be Raul Ibanez, who’s pretty much a platoon guy now and was never at Hamilton’s level as an overall hitter. But in his best days, he was an everyday guy.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 218 .283 .348 .488
vs. LHP 55 .262 .315 .419

That is just under 80 percent of Ibanez’s career home runs against right-handed pitchers. A higher percentage than Bonds and Hamilton, for sure. Those two are everyday players and the discrepancy there can be chalked up to there being more right-handed pitchers than left-handed. With Ibanez, it’s not so simple.

With Seth Smith of the A’s, who Nash recently talked about as a potential Yoenis Cespedes replacement, it’s a little more difficult.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 59  .284 .362 .504
vs. LHP 7 .205 .277 .332

That’s 89 percent of his career total. That’s 19 percent more than Bonds, about 15 more than Hamilton, and 9 more than Ibanez.

Here’s the thing about those guys, though. If you’re looking to replace a player who’s hit the DL, you don’t need a star like Bonds or Hamilton in his prime, nor do you even Ibanez in his best years. All of those guys would probably not be available. Seth Smith, is available in nearly every league, and will absolutely do if you’ve had an outfielder go down.

Yes, I know, those AVG/OBP/SLG splits are just not close, but they don’t need to be. Yes, Smith can’t left-handed pitching, but he doesn’t face lefties that often. There are a few reasons for that.

  1. Again, there are more right-handed pitchers than left-handed counterparts. If you were to average .284 and .205, you’d get a sub-.250 hitter. But Smith is a .270 hitter. Because again, there are more right-handed pitchers than left-handed and…
  2. Smith rarely faces left-handed pitching.

The left-sided side of a platoon works so well because platoon left-handed bats generally don’t bat against lefties, so you don’t need to worry about the slash splits as much. Since they do get more at-bats, their slash stats will impact your team more than a lefty. While a 30-for-100 and 3-for-10 hitter both bat .300, the guy with more at-bats helps your team’s average much more. Simple, I know, but worth repeating.

Smith is a pretty drastic case, but certainly not the only platoon guy who can help you out short term. Todd Helton is no longer the player he once way, but can still do damage against right-handed arms, especially in Coors Field. Carlos Pena (who Will recently talked at length on) can hit lefties is another guy who can still do damage.

Something else simple but worth saying: Hitters who get more at-bats will have better counted stats. So again, you don’t want the right-handed side of the platoon, but the lefties will do well as a short-term fix.

Now, if a star guy is down for the year, a platoon guy probably won’t work too well. In that case, your best chance at remaining competitive is a trade. But in a normal 2-4 week DL stint, go with the lefties. They’re more than likely your best chance at success.

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It was a bad day for aces.

Clave Jones —  April 8, 2013 — Leave a comment
Don't panic if your ace implodes. Photo courtesy of Eric Van Dyke.

Don’t panic if your ace implodes. Photo courtesy of Eric Van Dyke.

Many fantasy owners started Dickey, Strasburg, and Hamels yesterday. These were guys who were counted on to anchor their pitching staff, so needless to say, things didn’t go as hoped. Here are the lines for these guys, plus a few others:

IP K W ERA Whip
Cole Hamels Phi 5.2 2 0 12.71 2.29
R.A. Dickey Tor 4.2 5 0 13.50 2.57
Matt Cain SF 3.2 2 0 22.09 2.45
Yovani Gallardo Mil 6.0 3 0 6.00 1.83
James Shields KC 6.0 8 1 6.00 1.67
David Price TB 5.0 3 0 14.40 2.60
Stephen Strasburg Was 5.1 5 0 10.13 2.44

The aces weren’t aces.

Shields was probably the one taken the latest in most drafts and he was the only one with a win or any significant Ks. But he still pitched a stinker that would kill your ratios. The rest were miserable and Cain didn’t even last 4 innings.

Sure, there were aces like CC Sabathia and Adam Wainwright who pitched gems yesterday, but where I’m going with this is that it’s early season and a rough outing or slow start will get the emotions going among your more impetuous league mates.

Here are a few tips if your fantasy team got shelled yesterday:

Don’t panic.

Seriously, don’t panic. Roto is a marathon, not a sprint. No one likes to see shellacking or golden sombrero at any time during the season, but it’s going to happen. Just like great hitters will ultimately put up great numbers, great pitchers will ultimately put up great stat lines. But they will toss a stinker or two. Don’t let the fact that it’s early in the season cause any sort of over-reaction.

Be patient because the aces that got knocked around yesterday are likely to string together gems in their next 3-4 starts and be right back on track, as will your fantasy team.

Take advantage of other’s panic.

Some of your league mates won’t take the above advice and they’ll panic. They will be convinced that one bad start is an omen of a bad season to come and they’ll give up on a guy too soon. I’m hesitant to tell you to take advantage of another man’s poor choices, but you need to absolutely take advantage of another man’s poor choices.

If they panic and drop a player then burn your waiver claim or blow your FAAB (well, that’s an odd phrase). If they offer you a trade where they are selling seriously low on a guy after one bad start, then accept it immediately and say “Thanks sucker!”  Actually, do accept the trade, but don’t call them a sucker. You don’t want to burn that bridge. Call them a sucker behind their back.

Ride a hot streak.

Some players are getting off to slow starts (pun intended). Meanwhile, pitchers like Jose Fernandez  pitched a gem, despite being young and over his head. If you have roster flexibility, get a few solid innings out of the fast starters. They are out there. Look for a waiver wire surprise and even if you only use him for a start or two or might be able to flip him for an asset later. I can remember picking up Sam Fuld last year, playing him for 2 games, then trading him away for a struggling pitcher who ended up putting together the great season I knew he would.

Don’t do this at the expense your guys who are struggling. Remember, be patient and don’t drop them for a player who just happens to be hot. But do consult Dixon’s Picks if you have a little roster flexibility. He’ll provide you with some solid options.

Play day-to-day.

If you love the day-to-day nature, try daily baseball. If you find you are the kind of guy that really likes chasing those day to day breakouts, then go with it. Maybe you’re naturally a sprinter and not a marathon runner. Then roto might not be for you, so give daily baseball a try.

I’m sure you’ve seen several advertised. I play StarStreet because I like that you can do a Pick Five as well as several Daily options, such as head-to-head or buy-ins. I’m a roto guy all the way, but I do like that instant gratification of daily fantasy baseball. Give Starstreet a try.

 

I realize it’s tough early in the season to see your top round pick or guy you spent a lot of auction money just totally implode. But dont panic. In fact, take advantage of those who do panic.

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Waiver Wire Players to Watch Early

Michael Dixon —  April 1, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

I hope I’m not the first or last to do so, but let me wish everyone a Happy Opening Day! This is one of my favorite days on the sport’s calender and while I love fantasy baseball, I usually try to enjoy this day as a fan of the game in general.

That’s the case for a few reasons but one of them is that it usually takes a few weeks to get a real lay of the land for a baseball season. Stats are way out of whack in the early part of the season, so I’ll wait a few weeks for a Dixon’s Picks. Having said that, a round-tripper on Opening day counts the same for your fantasy team that one on the final day of the season. So, while I am not advising that you go out and jump on these guys, I’d suggest that you keep an eye on them, because a strong early season performance could be indicative of something bigger than just going 4-4 with a homer and 3 RBI on opening day, being on pace to hit 1.000 with 162 HR and 486 RBI.

So with that, let’s take a look at some waiver wire guys to keep an eye on.

 

Juan Pierre

If you’ve been with us since the beginning, you know that stolen bases irritate me, in the fantasy game, that is. One of the places where I the fantasy player in me differs from the real baseball fan. The reason I don’t like them in fantasy is that unlike the other offensive stats, many players who excel in steals are just about useless everywhere else (I’m looking at you Rajai Davis and Everth Cabrera). That’s not necessarily the case with Juan Pierre.

Now, I know that he won’t get you any of the power numbers, but I can’t help but be drawn to what he will bring you in average and could bring you in runs. As of right now, Baseball Prospectus has Pierre leading off for the Marlins, at least against right-handed pitchers. Fortunately, they start the majority of games and the other platoon option is Austin Kearns. It’s not exactly hard to see him falling out of favor.

Pierre’s career AVG/OBP is .297/.346, which is not terrible. He showed as recently as 2012 (.307/.351 in 130 games) that he can still get on base with some frequency. So, at the very least you can rely on that not being a drain. But something else to remember about Pierre is that leading off for the Marlins, he’s going to have a chance to be driven in by Giancarlo Stanton. Granted, if it’s not Stanton it probably won’t be anyone, especially until Logan Morrison gets into the lineup. Still, with Stanton’s power, being on base in front of him can lead to runs scored.

Now, I am not saying to go out there and sign him right now. But I am saying that if he gets off to a good start, he’s worth looking at in deeper leagues, or if you have an outfielder/UT man get hurt early in the year. This will really be true if Stanton starts well, especially if just one or two other Marlin hitters show some life. Pierre’s probably not a 162-game fantasy player anymore, but if all is well, he’s worth a ride for a few months.

 

Eduardo Nunez

Let me let you in on a few little secrets.

  1. The shortstop position has no depth. If your guy gets hurt, hope it’s not long term because in a league with 10 or more people, replacing him for more than a week will not be easy.
  2. Yankees’ shortstop Derek Jeter is starting the season on the DL.
  3. Alex Rodriguez, their regular third baseman since 2004 is facing an injury that will have him out until at least the All-Star-Break. The injury combined with constant PED allegations could put his season, if not career in jeopardy.
  4. The Yankees signed Kevin Youkilis in the offseason. While he’s still a capable player, Youkilis has never played 145 games in a season and hasn’t played more than 122 in any of the last three seasons.
  5. Jeter will be 39 in June. Rodriguez will be 38 in July. Youkilis just turned 34 in March.

What? Those aren’t secrets? Everyone knows that? Dang. I thought I was on to something there. Anyway, all of that means that Eduardo Nunez is likely to see some at bats this year, especially in the early part of the year.

Now, Nunez is like Pierre in that any homers he gets you should be considered a bonus. I wouldn’t call him a prolific base-stealer, but with 38 steals in 180 career games, he won’t kill you there.

What you really want to see with Nunez is where he’s batting in the order. With guys like Rodriguez, Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson out (all but possibly Jeter for extended time), it’s not inconceivable that we’ll see Nunez batting in front of Robinson Cano, or down in the sixth spot, which is not bad for RBI. Even without much power, he can be a cheap source of fantasy production in average and steals for sure, and either RBI or runs, depending on where he ends up. Now, if he doesn’t do well enough to crack the Yankees’ Top 6 on a consistent basis, you can do better, even as a fill-in shortstop. But if he’s up at the top of the order, you’re looking at a guy who can provide sneaky production in a few categories at a bad position. Worth keeping an eye on.

 

Santiago Casilla

Now, Sergio Romo is the best reliever the Giants have, and while their bullpen is good, it’s not much of a contest. But until the postseason, Bruce Bochy was very committed to the closer by committee notion to replace Brian Wilson in 2012, and they didn’t bring in another closer in the offseason.

That tells me that while Romo will probably be the Giants’ primary closer, Bochy will likely look elsewhere for saves on occasion. Also, remember that Romo is now 30 and his primary pitch is a slider. Injuries have never been a massive concern, but that pitch does lead to injuries.

Throw all of that together and take a look at Santiago Casilla, the man who led the Giants in saves in 2012 and of all the guys in the bullpen, has the most classic closer stuff. Now, that doesn’t show in K/9 rate, especially when compared to Romo. But if Romo’s slider’s not on, he could be in trouble. Casilla can attack hitters a little better.

Now, I’ll say again that Romo should be the team’s primary closer. In 2012, the two combined for 39 saves, with Casilla notching 25 and Romo tallying 14. Don’t be surprised if those numbers are flipped. Even when Romo’s the closer, Casilla’s had a 2.22 ERA/1.18 WHIP with 8.2 strikeouts per nine as a Giant. You could do a lot worse if you’re looking for help in those areas.

Now, relief pitchers are really tricky in the early year with ERA and WHIP. They don’t throw many innings so any dent can make them look really bad. So, look at his strikeouts and if he’s got an ugly ERA or WHIP, look at his profile page to see just how that happened. While we’re on the subject of relievers.

 

Andrew Bailey & Sergio Santos

As of right now, we’re looking at Joel Hanrahan and Casey Janssen as the closers for the Red Sox and Blue Jays, respectively. I am not expecting that to change, but both Andrew Bailey and Sergio Santos have been closers in the past, and good ones. They really lost their jobs because of an injury.

Like with Casilla, monitor them in the early season. You may want to keep an eye on how Hanrahan and Janssen are doing, as well, but I’m also suggesting that these guys could possibly be moved in season if they’re healthy and pitching well. If that happens, they’ll become closers wherever they go and will get eaten up on your fantasy leagues. If they’re doing well, you can use their middle relief stats to help your team and wait to see if they’re moving, helping you get saves.

Now, Bailey is the better of the two, but Sergio Santos is a strikeout machine who can help get you some points there. Again, don’t sign them right now, but keep an eye on what they’re doing.

 

Bonus Pick

Ian Kennedy

The other guys were waiver wire guys who might be worth keeping an eye on, this is a guy who’s not on any waiver wires, but is worth keeping an eye on. Heading into the year as the Diamondbacks’ No. 1 starter, take a look at Kennedy’s likely April starts.

  1. vs. Cardinals
  2. at Brewers
  3. vs. Dodgers
  4. at Rockies
  5. at Giants (day game)
  6. vs. Giants

Normally I wouldn’t be too thrilled about that for a pitcher’s opening month. But in the case of Ian Kennedy, I am, because I want to see what kind of pitcher he’s going to be this year. In 2011, Kennedy was elite. In 2012, he was decidedly average. If he was facing teams like the Cubs, Padres, and Mets in the early going, I wouldn’t be so sure that I could trust the good results. If he’s good against these teams, you’re probably looking at a really good pitcher this season.

On the other hand, if he gets shelled in most or all of these starts, you’re looking at a 2012 repeat. That’s not to say he’ll be bad, but he won’t be that good either. Elite pitchers can handle these teams. That’s not to say that an elite pitcher would throw six gems, but they’d be solid far more  often than not. I don’t see Kennedy being one who splits the difference between elite and average. If he’s doing poorly early on and you own him, see if you can unload him to an owner attracted to the name more than the stats. If he does well and he’s not on your team, try to get him.

The overall point with Kennedy is that while the first few starts can be a little misleading with some pitchers, his history shows that they’re important, especially against these opponents.

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Dixon’s Picks: Late-Round Sleeper Pitchers

Michael Dixon —  March 12, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of slgckgc.

Photo courtesy of slgckgc.

This last weekend, we put out a bit of a request on our Facebook page. Right now is a very important time for everyone with the drafts imminent (or having already occurred), so we wanted to know what you, the reader, wanted to see. Actually, we still want to know that. If you have a request for us, let any of us know by Twitter, Facebook, email, or any other way you can think of.

Anyway, one of our readers gave us this request:

I would like to see a ranking of pitching sleepers. Pitchers who will be available in the later rounds.

For those of you new to the site, once the season’s about a month old (give or take a week), you’ll see a Dixon’s Picks from me every Monday, going over some waiver wire guys who I think would be good pickups for that week of action. So, this request seemed like a good one for me to tackle.

Obviously there’s some assumption here as to when these guys will be going. But judging by rankings and auction value projections from our Draft Kit and a few other sites’ Draft Kits, I feel pretty good calling all of these guys sleepers.

Anyway, enough rambling here, let’s get to it. Here are some sleeper arms that will be available to you late in the draft, or on the wire afterwards.

 

Josh Beckett

Sleepers don’t need to be someone that not everyone has heard of, they can be someone that everyone and his mother knows about and has already dismissed. Enter Josh Beckett. I know, the end of his time in Boston didn’t exactly put him in anyone’s good graces in Beantown. The chicken & beer, the horrible 2012, the apparently pretty poor attitude.

Beckett will be dismissed by so many people, but take a look at what he did after being moved to the Dodgers last year.

IP W-L K BB ERA WHIP
43 2-3 38 14 2.93 1.326

It would be easy to look at that WHIP to wonder how long that kind of ERA could be maintained while allowing so many runners. There’s a point there, but remember that Dodger Stadium is much better for pitchers than Fenway Park is. Also, the hitters occupying the NL West in 2013 don’t appear to be as strong as the hitters that have made their livings in the AL East in recent years.

It’s a little easier to pitch out of jams. Heck, Ryan Vogelsong‘s WHIP over the last two years has been 1.24; not exactly gaudy. But his 3.05 ERA in that span is pretty solid.

What’s really intriguing about Beckett is how much his strikeout rate went up. It did exactly what it should when a pitcher moves from the AL to the NL.

Beckett will be 33 in May and I understand the desire to write him off. But he’s out of what was a toxic situation in Boston and in a better environment for pitchers. Don’t be afraid to give him a late-round whirl. ESPN has him ranked as the 227th overall player and 64th ranked starting pitcher. We have him 206th overall and as the 54th best starter. I’d give him the benefit of the doubt. You’re gambling pretty big in that part of the draft anyway and he was stellar in 2011, which was just two years ago. Out of Boston, he’s a good late-round gamble.

 

Alex Cobb

Before getting into my own reasoning here, I’d like to show you what the ESPN profile of Alex Cobb says about the 25-year-old.

While Cobb’s spot in the rotation is not assured, there is an opening following the trade of James Shields to Kansas City and he’s the favorite to break camp with the job. And if Cobb can translate his strikeout rate (better than a batter an inning) in the minors to the majors while maintaining the control he exhibited last season, Shields may not be missed. Sometimes you need to speculate on a breakout and Cobb is as good a bet as any to do just that. Monitor his progress during the spring; if he’s missing bats, Cobb’s worth a dart throw.

Okay, let’s take a look to see what he’s doing so far in the Grapefruit League.

IP K H BB ERA WHIP
9 12 6 1 2.00 0.78

Admittedly not a huge sample size, but that’s a pretty good start. The Depth Chart on the Rays Website has him listed as the fourth starter right now and with that start to the spring, he should easily stay in the Top 5.

Remember that Cobb has already shown that he can maintain decent numbers in the majors, with a career ERA/WHIP split of 3.86/1.27 in 189 innings. As he matures, he’ll learn to walk fewer hitters. That may mean fewer strikeouts, but that gaudy K rate will still be solid, and the other numbers will all be better.

 

Marco Estrada

I’m having kind of a hard time understanding why Marco Estrada is ranked so low by ESPN (232 overall, 65th starting pitcher). Looking at his numbers over the last two years, that doesn’t seem to add up.

IP K H BB ERA WHIP
231 231 212 58 3.82 1.17

I guess you could be a little worried about the innings. Estrada should be the Brewers’ second starter and prior to 2011, he had all of two career starts. Heck, prior to 2012, he only had nine career starts. But I’m choosing to look at that as a positive.

The 2012 season was far and away the best of his career, and 2011 was second. Before the 2011 season started, Estrada was used primarily as a reliever and had a career Major League ERA of 8.04 and a WHIP of 1.66. Now those career numbers are 4.32 and 1.23. It would seem as though he’s better as a starter, would it not?

The bottom line is that there aren’t many pitchers out there who will give you an ERA under 4.00, a WHIP under 1.20, and a strikeout rate of about a hitter an inning. Estrada did all of those things last year, but looking at his ADP and leagues owned percentage, he still easily qualifies as a sleeper. The ceiling is pretty high here.

 

Erasmo Ramirez

I understand that there might be some hesitancy to look too much on past success as an indicator of what will happen in the future. But I want to show you what Erasmo Ramirez did throughout the 2012 season. Before looking at these, remember that he won’t even turn 23 until the beginning of May.

  IP ER H BB K ERA WHIP
2012 Total 136.1 54 128 30 106 3.56 1.16
2012 Minors 77.1 32 81 18 58 3.72 1.28
2012 Majors 59 22 47 12 48 3.36 1.00

No typos there, he was better in the majors than in the minors. Also consider that between 2008 and 2010, Ramirez never had a season ERA of above 3.00.

Pitching in the major leagues becomes much easier if you don’t issue free passes. His rate is solid, especially for a 22-year-old who strikes hitters out at a decent rate. Again, you gamble in the late rounds, but I have a strange feeling that Ramirez could be the steal of the 2013 drafts.

Now, shifting gears a bit….

 

Oakland Athletics Rotation

According to the depth chart on their website, the A’s will enter 2013 with a Starting 5 of Brett Anderson, Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, and A.J. Griffin, with Dan Straily waiting in the wings. In a weird way, every one of these guys can be viewed as sleepers, although a few probably won’t be drafted as such. But let’s take a quick look at all six of these guys.

  • Anderson: It’s hard to overlook the injuries here. Even seemingly minor ones like the one that caused him to leave his last Spring Training start are worrisome when you’re dealing with a guy who’s only 25 but has had four different trips to the DL in his career. Still, this is a guy capable of a sub-3.00 ERA with a WHIP under 1.20. His injury history will make him a mid-late round pick. At that time, he’s worth a gamble. He doesn’t strike out many, but Anderson is a staff ace when he’s on the mound. He may miss some time, but again, you’re not looking at an early rounder.
  • Colon: A lot of uncertainty here. The advantage to Colon is that he doesn’t walk anyone. This is why he allowed more than a hit an inning in 2012 but still had a WHIP at 1.208. The problems are obvious: You don’t know how he’ll perform coming off of the PED suspension, and he doesn’t strike a lot of hitters out. Heck, in his Cy Young Award winning season of 2005, Colon had a K/9 rate of 6.3. I like Colon as a spot-starter, maybe a full-time guy in deeper leagues, but only on the waiver wire. Don’t draft him.
  • Parker: Parker is made to pitch at the Oakland Coliseum, or whatever they call it now, I’m from the Bay Area, I’ll call it by the name I grew up with, but I digress. The 2012 home/road splits were massive, with an ERA/WHIP of 2.61/1.18 in Oakland, and 4.54/1.37 elsewhere. How valuable he is comes down to a few things: What kind of league are you in and how deep is your bench? If you’re in a roto league, don’t go crazy on those splits. Realize that he gets to make half of his starts in Oakland and that it will all balance out. In a head-to-head league, I’d roster him in deep bench leagues, starting him when he’s in a good pitcher’s yard and benching him when he’s not. In head-to-head leagues with smaller benches, I’d avoid Parker altogether. He doesn’t strike out hitters at a great rate, so a lot of his success is based on pitching to contact, which is a much safer bet in some places than in others.
  • Milone: There’s an echo here, as everything said about Parker applies here. The 2012 home/road splits were similarly huge, with an ERA/WHIP of 2.74/1.05 in Oakland, and 4.83/1.52 away from home. You do have to remember that both guys are young (Parker is 24, Milone is 26), but they still have to prove that they can pitch away from the cavernous Coliseum to carry value in all formats.
  • Griffin: There’s a risk with Griffin. The A’s organization does not lack pitching and although he’s off to a decent start in Spring Training, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Griffin start the year in the minors. Because of that, he’ll probably be available very late, or even on the wire. But Griffin has something working in his favor that neither Parker or Milone have: He can pitch away from Oakland. As a matter of fact, Griffin actually had a lower ERA (2.90) on the road than he did at home (3.21). Griffin can make hitter’s miss, striking out just under a hitter an inning in the minors, while posting a decent rate at the Major League level in 2012 (7.0 per 9 innings). It’s really nice to have something like that to bank on, while not having to constantly worry about whether the A’s are home or not. It might be wise to consider easing him into your fantasy rotation, but his overall ceiling is higher than anyone currently in the five-man rotation.
  • Straily: Straily is off to an awful start this spring, so he’d need a heck of a finish to make the Opening Day Roster. A spot could open up with Colon’s suspension, but he has only five games left there, so it wouldn’t be hard for the A’s to work around that while keeping Straily in the minors. The advantage to Straily is that he strikes out a lot of hitters, and has at every stop along the way, including a cup of coffee in the majors in 2012. He was prone to giving up the long ball in the show, coughing up 11 gopher balls in 39.1 innings, with eight of those coming in Oakland. The nice thing is that with his strikeouts, Straily is capable of pitching away from Oakland. He can challenge the plate more than you’d like, which is why he’ll likely start 2013 in Sacramento. But once he makes his way to Oakland, Straily has an exceptionally high ceiling.

 

New York Mets Rotation

Here’s another rotation I’m high on, although wins may be hard to come by with an offense boasting little more than David Wright and Ike Davis and a terrible bullpen to hold leads. The team website lists the starting five as Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, Shaun Marcum, Dillon Gee, and Matt Harvey. Let’s have a look. 

  • Santana: He showed in 2012 that he can still strike hitters out, and even managed a no-no against one of the game’s best offenses. You just have to realize that injuries and fatigue will be a factor with Johan. He hasn’t thrown 200 innings since 2008 and even if I give him an extra inning in 2010 to bump him to 200, he didn’t throw a pitch in 2011, threw only 117 frames in 2012, and will be 34 on Opening Day. He’ll be good in spurts, probably early in the year. Just don’t be patient when he starts to decline.
  • Niese: Here’s a guy I’m really excited about. In 2010 and 2011, the last month the season was not a friend to Niese. In 2012, that was not the case, as he had an ERA of 2.49 and WHIP of 1.18. He makes hitters miss at a good rate (7.5 per nine innings), while getting better with walks. Now he’s heading into 2013, his age 26 season, with the confidence that he can do it for a full year. I foresee more good things from a guy who had an already solid ERA/WHIP of 3.40/1.17 in 2012.
  • Marcum: What concerns me about Marcum is that he’s 31, but pitches like he’s seven or eight years younger, walking way too many guys. Still, a career ERA of 3.76 suggests he knows how to work out of the stretch. Marcum also strikes guys out at a good rate, giving him some strong value. His walk rate will inflate your WHIP a bit too much for him to be an every start guy, but if you’re in a league with a deep bench, keep Marcum around for some spot starts. He’s reached his ceiling, but consistency in the recent past suggests he’s probably got another decent year or two before hitting his floor.
  • Gee: Gee’s similar to Marcum in style. He’ll walk more hitters than you’d like, but will also send quite a few back to the dugout with a K. Gee probably has the lower floor, but definitely has the higher ceiling. At this point of the draft, I’d much rather gamble on the younger arm, entering his Age 27 season. His walk rate in 2012 was much better than it ever was in the past, indicating that he’s becoming more well-rounded as a pitcher.
  • Harvey: If nothing else, Harvey will get you a lot of strikeouts. Including limited time with the big club in 2012, Harvey’s never had a stop in pro ball where he failed to strike out a hitter an inning, which is a lot to be excited about. His Major League ERA/WHIP of 2.73/1.15 in 2012 is probably not sustainable in 2013, but I feel pretty good about our guess of 3.55/1.25. He’ll bring a lot of value in keeper leagues, but even in one-and-done formats, this is a valuable arm.
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