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6 Skinny Legged Shortstops

Clave Jones —  March 5, 2013 — Leave a comment
Jean Segura could be a real value on draft day.

Jean Segura could be a real value on draft day.

I’m going to give you the 2013 fantasy baseball projections for 6 shortstops, then we’ll discuss them one-by-one.

Age AB R HR RBI SB AVG
Shortstop A 26 467 65 3 42 40 .259
Shortstop B 26 591 72 5 56 34 .276
Shortstop C 23 509 72 9 60 24 .289
Stortstop D 23 524 70 5 55 29 .288
Shortstop E 24 601 96 5 54 27 .290
Shortstop F 25 376 43 0 31 29 .263

Each of these shortstops are of the skinny-legged, narrow-shouldered variety, as you can see by their poor power numbers, but great stolen base numbers. They play to type in other words. I’m not here to mock the skinny-legged shortstop, I’m here to pay homage.

Shortstop A is Everth Cabrera

Controversy is swirling around Cabrera right now, but there is no denying that he has speed. In fact, he led the National League in steals last year (44), playing in only 115 games. He was caught just 4 times. While he might not help you with the average, he’ll swipe your fantasy baseball team some bags. Currently, his ADP is around 315.

Takeaway #1: Cabrera is young and has a weakness in his game. That doesn’t mean that he isn’t a “steal” if he drops that low in your draft.

Shortstop B is Alcides Escobar

Escobar brought his A game last season with a .293 AVG and we’re projecting that to regress some. Ned Yost will have the Royals stealing bases and Escobar carries an 88% success rate, meaning he always has the green light. His current ADP is 217. 

Takeaway #2: Escobar’s average will regress, but sometimes the correction can have players fall too far in drafts.

Shortstop C is Andrelton Simmons

So far Andrelton’s speed hasn’t translated into stolen bases, but it should. He’s also a little broader in the shoulders and could have a little more power than the others over a full season. Word is that he’ll have the opportunity to bat leadoff and his run projection is way too low if he sticks in the one hole.  His current ADP is 259. 

Takeaway #3: Projections for young players are highly unreliable. Make sure you factor that into building your fantasy baseball team and draft a few reliable veterans at other positions for balance.

Shortstop D is Jean Segura

Blue Jean Segura is someone I’ve been eyeballing for a while. He’s still raw at shortstop, but he has no competition for at bats and has as much upside as anyone on this list. He simply needs refinement and work in hitting off speed stuff.  His current ADP is 287. 

Takeaway #4: These players are young and on the upswing of their careers. It’s good strategy in dynasty leagues to get them just before a potential breakout.

Shortstop E is Elvis Andrus

Elvis is the best known on this list and for good reason. Only 24, he has 4 seasons of MLB experience under his belt. His runs will be elite and his batting average is predictable and will help you.  His current ADP is 130. 

Takeaway #5: Drafting experienced players will mean you’ll have to give a higher draft pick for them.

Shortstop F is Dee Gordon

After bursting on the scene in 2011, Gordon was ineffective in 2012. He’ll probably spend time in the minors in 2013. Still, he has speed in spades and is a threat to take both second and third if he can ever get on first.  He is currently going undrafted. 

Takeaway #6: It’s important to even have an idea of who may be available on the waiver wire when you are scouring for value.

 

I’m not saying these shortstops are equal. I also realize that their stats aren’t the same, just in the “ballpark.” While a few runs or steals here or there can swing a roto season, it’s still important to have an open mind when it comes to drafting. These players are currently being drafted at entirely different times. If you head into the 2013 draft thinking you’ll draft for speed at the shortstop position, you just might find that you have a lot of flexibility on your hands.

In Drafting, Player Profiles , , , , , ,
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How to Win your League (Don’t do What I do)

Guest Poster —  February 26, 2013 — Leave a comment
Don't order this Country Breakfast in the second round. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Don’t order this Country Breakfast in the second round. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

This is a Guest Post by Colby Prough. You can follow him on Twitter @dismalfb. Read on, he’s sharing years of hard lessons with us. Others have guest posted for us: Check out Andy Young of Outlier Baseball and Bryan Curley from Baseball Professor. Here’s how you could guest post.

Up front, I love fantasy baseball.  I look forward to the next season as soon as the old one is over.  Unfortunately…I’m terrible at it.  Terrible.

But I just can’t quit.  I love doing it.  I spend hours preparing for it.  I make my own Excel sheets for it.  I would hate to guess how many dollars worth of magazines I have bought over the years and studied until they were rags.  I go into my draft supremely confident that I have it whipped.  My plans are in place and my strategy is solid. Then…the draft starts.  This article isn’t going to be so much of a how to, but more of a “what not to do”.  Hopefully, someone will read this and learn from my mistakes.

Rule One: Don’t be a Homer

I’m a huge Royals fan.  I’m eternally optimistic.  I go into every season thinking this is the year they will go all the way.  I know a lot of fans feel this way about their team, but, read again, I’m a Royals fan.  The team is finally starting to make some changes that a fan can get excited about, but, in my case, probably a little too excited. I will see a Royals player that I KNOW is going to have a huge year and draft him two rounds too early and be proud of it.  Smug, even, about the “steal” I drafted.  I haven’t done this occasionally, I do this every…single…year.  Anyone else have a Royal’s player carry their team?  Didn’t think so.  Don’t pick a player just because you’re a huge fan.

Rule Two:  Make a plan and stick with it.

I always go into a draft with a firm plan.  This plan (that I have spent weeks on)  generally lasts roughly two rounds and then out the window it goes.  I start drafting by my gut.  To my chagrin, though quite expansive, my gut isn’t very good at fantasy baseball.

I can not reiterate this enough, be flexible, but have a firm plan and stick with it.  If the draft isn’t going according to your plan, don’t panic.  Rework your plan to make it effective for you.  Think on your feet and have back-up plans to your back-up plans.

Rule three:  After your draft, don’t overtinker.

Ok, overtinker isn’t a word.  I know this because there’s a little red line under it.  It is however the word that I use for how I manipulate my lineup after a draft, especially after the season starts.  I get panicky.  I start dropping and adding players left and right.

Be patient.  I preach this to myself every year, but never follow through.  That career .300 hitter that is going through a 0 for 12 streak?  Give him a little time, he’s more than likely going to pull out of it.  You drop him and you’ll be kicking yourself a week later when he goes on a tear.

 

I have played fantasy baseball for over fifteen years and have never won a thing.  I am always the subject of ridicule on the league message boards.  The best thing about having me in your fantasy baseball league (besides easy wins) is that I never get up.  I’m still tinkering with that lineup on the last day of the season.  Now,  I can’t tell you what to do like some experts *cough* The Crackerjacks *cough* can to help you win your league, but I can sure tell you what NOT to do.

I hope someone gleaned some helpful information in this article and it helps them in their draft and in the running of their league.  I hope this helps someone do what I am unable to do.  Win.

I, however, have to go.  I’m in a mock draft right now and I’m pretty sure I can get Billy Butler in the second round.

And it starts again….

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Fantasy Baseball 2013 Player Profiles: Jacoby Ellsbury

Michael Dixon —  February 19, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Let’s get this out in the open right away. If you’re new to the site, you probably don’t know that I predicted that Jacoby Ellsbury would be the Fantasy Baseball MVP in 2012. Make fun of me if you will, but know that I wasn’t afraid to eat those words.

Actually, go ahead and mock me if you want. Sure, he had a fantastic year in 2011, but he played all of 18 games in 2010 and true to form, missed more than half of 2012.

But now’s the time that we stop looking back and begin to look forward to 2013. What can we expect from Ellsbury in 2013?

Well, the 2011 season of 119 runs, 32 home runs, 105 RBI, 39 steals, and .321 average should not be expected, and if you draft him and project him to come anywhere near that, you’re going to get crushed.

But that doesn’t mean he’s a bad fantasy player. Actually, Ellsbury is a prime example of someone who may be underrated because people overreact to overrating him last year. That’s actually a pretty common theme in fantasy sports. But just how should he be rated? Let’s look at all the important categories.

 

Runs: Here’s a gamble right off of the bat. Obviously, even if Ellsbury hits 32 homers again, he still needs to score 68 other times off of somebody else’s hit (or walk, or sacrifice) if he’s to score 100 runs. That concerns me in this lineup.

Not only is Ellsbury is a big injury risk, but Dustin Pedroia, Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, David Ortiz, and even a young Will Middlebrooks have all dealt with injuries in recent years. I don’t want to say that nobody on this list can hit the DL at all throughout the year if Ellsbury is to score a lot of runs in 2013, but we probably need about an average of 140 games played from all them, especially Ellsbury himself.

That’s just too much of a gamble for me. Especially since, (spoiler alert), you can’t count on Ellsbury driving himself in with the long ball that much.

Now, the Red Sox don’t have a bad offense, but I just can’t see Ellsbury crossing the plate 100 times this year. Not only was the 119 he had in 2011 a career high, but the only time he ever scored 100, and some of those other seasons were when he was in a pretty good lineup (Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, a healthier Kevin Youkilis, etc). He won’t be bad by any means, but don’t look for him to push the league leaders.

  • Dixon’s Prediction: 84
  • Crackerjack Prediction: 93

 

Home Runs: Ellsbury has played 145 or more games three times in his career. Look at his home run totals from those seasons and tell me which one sticks out.

  • 2008: 145 games played, 9 home runs.
  • 2009: 153 games played, 8 home runs.
  • 2011: 158 games played, 32 home runs.

Which season sticks out there?

Heck, he hit four home runs in 74 games in 2012, which translates to less than 10 homers over 162 games. You could maybe say that he’s beefed up as he’s gotten older (Ellsbury will be 30 in September), and maybe he’ll work on a more powerful stroke since he doesn’t have the talent around him that the Red Sox have had in past years.

Still, he’s just not a power hitter. Fenway is not a great park for left-handed power, as it has very deep fences to right field unless you go right down the line. Now, I am not saying that he’ll be below 10 again, but it’s hard to imagine 20 home runs let alone 30.

  • Dixon’s Prediction: 14
  • Crackerjack Prediction: 15

 

RBI: Much like runs, this is a category where you need a lot of help. Does anyone remember 2010, where Prince Fielder had 83 RBI with 32 home runs? Giancarlo Stanton‘s 2012 season was another example, as he had 37 homers with 86 RBI, whereas a guy like Josh Willingham had 35 and 110.

Now, we’ve already established that Ellsbury won’t smack many homers out in 2013, and batting at the top of the Boston order, he’s going to be relying on bottom of the order guys like Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Ross, Daniel Nava, and Pedro Ciriaco. So, just like home runs, not only can you not expect the 2011 totals to repeat themselves, but don’t think that he’ll drive in anywhere near that many runs.

  • Dixon’s Prediction: 55
  • Crackerjack Prediction: 62

 

Steals: Here’s an area where Ellsbury’s value looks really good. Now, you can’t expect him to steal the 70 he had in 2009, the 50 he had in 2008, or even the 39 he swiped in 2011.

Still, he’s one of the better stolen base guys in all of baseball, especially when you factor in that he’s not dead weight in other categories, which isn’t really the case with some other high steal guys.

Now, stolen base frequency doesn’t often increase with age, especially when we’re dealing with a person with a history of injuries. Still, this is his “Age 29″ season, and that’s far from old. In 2013, Ellsbury may try to run a little more, since he doesn’t need to worry as much about taking the bat out of a great hitter’s hands. While I still don’t see him repeating his past numbers, he’ll still be in the strong category.

  • Dixon’s Prediction: 33
  • Crackerjack Prediction: 35

 

Batting Average: This is where things get really tricky. Jacoby has deviated quite a bit here over the years. In his three full, non-injury plagued seasons, he’s hit .280 (2008), .301 (2009), and .321 (2011). That’s quite a bit of variety, and it doesn’t even look at extreme years where he debuted late (.353 in 2007), or an injury riddled campaign (.192 in 2010).

So, rather than look at individual years, I am going to look at his full body of work. Ellsbury is a .297 career hitter. If you eliminate his 2011 campaign, he’s at a .287 mark. So, I am going to split the difference there, and for the first time today, provide a perfect match with our Draft Kit.

  • Dixon’s Prediction: .292
  • Crackerjack Prediction: .292

 

Health: As is the case with guys like Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki, you have to imagine that Ellsbury will miss some games throughout the year. Of course he may play a full slate of games, but you just can’t prepare for it, as he’s missed a lot of time throughout his career.

I will grant that Ellsbury’s been a little different than the shortstops mentioned above. They’ve been the types who generally speaking miss some games every year. Ellsbury has traditionally missed at least half of the season, been right around 150, or even better than that. Still, it’s hard to see him topping that total in 2013. I’d plan on at least one DL stint. While I don’t think he’ll have the equivalent of two DL stints (30 games), I wouldn’t feel comfortable advising anyone to plan on him missing fewer than 25, so that’s what we’re going to go with.

  • Dixon’s Prediction: 137
  • Crackerjack Prediction: 149

 

Looking at my numbers vs. our collective numbers, you could maybe say that I fall into the category of people that I mentioned above. Somebody who overrated Ellsbury heading into 2012, got burned badly (though he thankfully wasn’t on any of my teams), and could now be so cautious to not overrate him again that I am underrating him.

I’ll only say that he’s had some inconsistency throughout his career, so be very, very careful that you don’t pick him based on his career high stats, or what he showed in 2011.

Once again, what I like about Ellsbury is that he steals bases and doesn’t drain other categories. If he stays healthy, I don’t see him going below any of my projections, but wouldn’t guess that he’ll do any better than the Crackerjack numbers, even in a good season. As is the case with any player with a history of injuries, just be sure to have a good backup option.

In Player Profiles
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Ask Nash: Rookie Mistakes in Auctions

Nash —  February 15, 2013 — 2 Comments
If you bid big on Ryan Braun, be sure you're bidding on this one. Photo courtesy of Jibby7.

If you bid big on Ryan Braun, be sure you’re bidding on this one.
Photo courtesy of Jibby7.

Welcome back to Ask Nash. Those of you who joined us over the offseason are probably unfamiliar with this, so let me take a second to tell you what this is. Over the course of the year, I’ll receive different emails from readers asking for my opinion on something. It could be a trade, a sleeper, whether or nor some big name will turn a cold streak around, basically anything that pertains to fantasy baseball.

Every Friday, I’ll publish a question, with my answer. I’ll show you how to reach me with an Ask Nash at the bottom because right now, I want to get right to the first Ask Nash of 2013.

 

Nash,

What is the biggest mistake new players make in an auction draft?

Eric, Minneapolis, MN

Eric,

In my experience (as both a first time auctioner a few seasons ago and one who feeds off of people’s inexperience now) I would say that the biggest mistake is not doing a few mock auction drafts before hand. It is important to know what to expect when entering any draft, especially a first auction style draft.

Some guys, like Dixon and Clave, feed off of the adrenaline that gets pumping when guys start going off the board at ridiculous amounts. If you have never experienced an auction style draft, I might equate it to exactly how guys describe being a rookie in the NFL. Year after year, every rookie is asked “What is the hardest part about transitioning into the NFL?” and undoubtedly they respond, “the speed of the game!”. What they mean is the speed in which you have to act and react to a play, because the veterans are making decisions so much faster than rookies.

The same goes for a guy stepping into an auction draft. A guy is nominated and then the bidding begins, you may have only 2-3 seconds to decide if you want to bid 9-10-12-15 auction dollars on a guy and then he is suddenly out of your budget range. After a few rounds of this you may realize that you haven’t bought a player yet, but you haven’t even placed a bid.

So then you set out to be ready to make a good bid on the next guy, take the few seconds you have to adjust the minimum bid to double digits and prepare yourself to steal the next guy on the auction block. He is nominated and you strike. You appear to have scared everyone else off and as you watch the timer count down and you prepare to celebrate your purchase of Ryan Braun, for $22, literally a third of what you thought he might go for.

You then realize that you have just purchased Ryan Braun the CLOSER in the Angels organization, who hasn’t thrown a Major League pitch since 2007. You didn’t get a $22 steal, you got taken for $22. D’oh!

You think I am joking? Well, I’m not. It has happened to guys in a couple leagues I have played in. As much as I harp about being prepared for going into a draft nothing, and I mean nothing, prepares you better for an auction than mock auctioning.

Hope this helps, Eric!

Nash

 

Do you want to Ask Nash a question? Take any of the following steps.

  • Find Nash on Twitter.
  • Email him at: Nash@fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com
  • Go to www.fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com. On the right, you’ll see Nash listed under the Crackerjacks. Click the “Ask Nash” button and go from there. 

I also realize that some of you may have a question that you want to remain private. That’s fine, just be sure to specify that. If I receive a query without that request, I consider it eligible for an Ask Nash.

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6 Players Who have the Hitting Skills to Win You a Championship

Clave Jones —  February 12, 2013 — Leave a comment
Austin Jackson: Age 26, 10.9% BB, 21.7% K Photo courtesy of Lakeland.

Austin Jackson: Age 26, 10.9% BB, 21.7% K
Photo courtesy of Lakeland.

Let’s profile 6 players who have the type of plate approach to provide you with a vote of confidence in 2013. In order to make this interesting, I thought I’d stick with the number 6. That is, here are 6 guys in their age twenty-six season.

I’ll share my bias as it will help you understand why I chose these the following parameters. I value guys with great plate discipline. I believe a guy will show a solid batting average if he knows the strike zone, makes good contact, and shows some power. I also think power develops a little earlier than the conventional wisdom of age 28. Therefore, I targeted guys who will be 26 in 2013, who walk over 8% of the time, and also strike out in less than 22% of their plate appearances.

Buster Posey C – Giants 11.3% BB / 15.7% K
It’s hard to imagine Buster Posey making a jump in 2013 because his 2012 line of 78 / 24 / 103 / .336 was so good. But Posey’s peripheral numbers suggest that you can confidently bet on a 2013 that is just as good, if not a little bit better. It’s valuable to have a little confidence that the high round draft pick you’ll have to spend on Posey, is it not? Fear not, because Posey’s approach at the plate says that you have nothing to worry about in drafting him high.

AB 2B 3B Runs HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
Buster Posey 541 38 1 80 25 101 1 62 82 0.318 0.387 0.530

 

Andrew McCutchen OF – Pirates 10.4% BB / 19.6% K
Andrew McCutchen‘s 2012 numbers were excellent, so it’d be a stretch to not prepare for some regression. But how much? He’s consistently being drafted in the first round of mock drafts, which means fantasy baseball drafters everywhere are hoping beyond hope he can repeat, and his age and plate approach says he can. His plate approach says he’s worth that first round pick.

AB 2B 3B Runs HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
Andrew McCutchen 600 36 6 103 27 95 24 79 117 .293 .375 .508

 

Austin Jackson OF – Tigers 10.9% BB / 21.7% K
Austin Jackson didn’t begin his career with the plate discipline he showed last season, but the numbers are certainly trending the right direction. He’s cut his strikeout dramatically while raising his walk totals to over 10%. Jackson had some sophomore struggles but they are long past andCountdown 13 Graphic I think going into his age-26 season we may be looking at a breakout for the young center fielder. He’s said he wants to run more and has been working on his technique. Couple that with a full season of games played and his 2013 season could be even better than his solid 2012.

AB 2B 3B Runs HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
Austin Jackson 582 33 7 104 16 59 20 63 141 .292 .361 .455

 

Desmond Jennings OF – Rays 8.2% BB / 21.3% K
Desmond Jennings just met the requirements, but I’m optimistic he can inch his walk rate up by 1% while simultaneously inching his K% down by a percent, because he’s flashed those skills before. There are some warning signs, mainly that he pops the ball up into the infield too much and those balls need to turn into line drives. It’s surprising with his speed that his batting average is as low as it is, but his young career (including the minors) as been a case study of a player everyone is just itching to see do more and do it more consistently. His age 26 season could be that year.

AB 2B 3B Runs HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
Desmond Jennings 550 28 7 85 14 59 35 52 106 .265 .329 .418

 

Jason Kipnis 2B – Indians 10.0% BB / 16.2% K
Jason Kipnis was a trendy sleeper in 2012, primarily because the second base position is devoid of fantasy baseball depth. His isolated power (ISO) is a little low for my tastes, but he has a mature approach at the plate and his age 26 season could mean a small uptick in power. 2012 wasn’t a flash in the pan.

AB 2B 3B Runs HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
Jason Kipnis 589 31 6 94 17 82 26 60 106 .268 .336 .428

 

Pablo Sandoval 3B – Giants 8.6% BB / 13.3% K
What objective value – if any – can you put on a player’s confidence, because Panda has to be riding high after both the Wold Series and Venezuelan championship MVP trophies. Panda has an aggressive hitter’s approach possible because of his freakish contact rates. His fast hands make hittable pitches out of just about anything, high fastballs, changeups low and away, you name it. Could his age 26 season be the one where he puts it all together, playing a full season? I think it might be.

AB 2B 3B Runs HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
Pablo Sandoval 562 37 2 81 26 89 1 44 71 .304 .354 .495

 

It’s not going out on a limb to say that Buster and The Dreaded One (use that for your band name) have a great approach at the plate and are fantasy baseball superstars. So in addition to a vacation of their skills, use this as a new way to evaluate hitters, going beyond simply scanning bating average. Plate discipline and isolated power are better measures of a player’s true skill.

Let’s go a little deeper as a bonus. Several other players are entering their age- 26 season but just missed the 8% walk rate and sub-22% strikeout rate.

  • Josh Reddick just missed with a 22.4% K rate, but you should let him slide because of his .221 ISO. Draft him.
  • Cameron Maybin just missed the 8% walk rate and doesn’t flash the power, but he could be a solid post-hype draft target.
  • Yonder Alonso has great plate discipline, but will need to flash more power to be valuable. Same with Gerardo Parra.

Draft the above guys with confidence. Their walk rate, strikeout rate, and isolated power tell us they have the skills to win you a fantasy baseball championship.

We’re counting down you our 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, which will be available for download on February 18th.  Here’s a quick review:

13 Dollar Players Who’ll Triple Your Money
12 Bargain Bin Outfielders
11 Pitchers You Shouldn’t Touch With a 60’6″ Pole
10 Spot Starters Who’ll Jump to the Next Level
9 Guys to Give You a Complete LIneup
8 Geezers Over 35 Who Still Have Their Giddy Up
7 Sleepers

In Player Profiles, Projections , , , , , , , ,
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7 Sleepers that will Impact your Fantasy Baseball Team in 2013

Will Meadows —  February 11, 2013 — 1 Comment
Photo Courtesy of Flickr user slgckgc.

Photo Courtesy of Flickr user slgckgc.

You can search for “sleeper picks” on the Internet and get hundreds of websites with hundreds of different reasons for why they should be chosen by you for your team.

I’m not going to waste your time with the “top twenty sleepers for 2013” or the “I’m smarter than you picks of the year.” If you want the run of the mill sleepers go out on the Internet and have a good time.

I’m going to rundown my top sleeper at each position. Keep in mind this might not be the guy who I think is going to put up the best numbers. These selections are based on value and where you can land them in your draft. On the flipside, some of these picks will put up huge numbers. Here’s looking at you, Will Middlebrooks. More about him later.

Without further adieu, let’s get started.

Catcher: Tyler Flowers – Chicago White Sox

Where’s Salvador Perez you might be wondering? He ain’t here, he’s already been taken ten rounds ahead of Tyler Flowers. With A.J. Pierzynski landing in the humid Texas heat, Flowers will take over the starring role on the South Side of Chicago.

Tyler has never received a lot of playing time in Chicago. We can’t gauge a lot from his trickle of at bats at the MLB level. Let’s take a look at his minor league numbers to gauge what we will see from 400+ at bats he will likely be receiving this year.

Year Level AB R HR RBI SB AVG
2008 A 413 88 18 88 8 .288
2009 AA 248 54 13 43 3 .302
2010 AAA 346 43 16 53 2 .220

We know he has some pop and he will hit for a fairly decent average. I’m not too optimistic on the amount of runs he will score hitting towards the bottom of the White Sox lineup.

With that said he will be drafted in the late teens and lower in your drafts. His stats project out to someone like a Ryan Doumit or Jesus Montero type of hitter. If he exceeds expectations you could see him compare closer to Miguel Montero.

Will’s 2013 Projection

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
420 58 17 68 5 .275

 

First Base: Kendrys Morales – Seattle Mariners

I was expecting great things from the underrated Cuban slugger last year. I was vastly disappointed. As many of you remember Kendrys is the guy who broke his leg in 2010 celebrating a walk off grand slam. He was a huge injury sleeper last year who quickly rose up draft boards going on to have a good season but not a great one.

He has a change of scenery with the trade sending him to Seattle. You can pencil him in for the Mariners starting DH/1B position this year. If he has a great year like he is capable of you can expect 25+ home runs with an average around .290. If he doesn’t adjust to the new surroundings he will probably have something similar to the year he had last year which was decent but nothing to write home about.

Year AB R HR RBI SB AVG
2012 484 61 22 73 0 .273

Now, in 2009 Kendrys Morales had a monster year.

Year AB R HR RBI SB AVG
2009 566 86 34 108 3 .306

Fantasy owners can hope he has something similar in 2013. I don’t think he will reach those 2009 heights playing in the Pacific Northwest because of the erratic lineup playing around him. He could still rack up big numbers that would make any owner very happy.

He is often overlooked in drafts because he is not a marquee name. Now, he will be playing on the cellar dweller Mariners without the spotlight of Los Angeles shining on him. The potential to have a huge power season could happen in Seattle with the fences being moved in at Safeco Field this year. Seattle will no longer be a pitcher’s park. He will turn 30 years old this season and he is playing on a one-year contract. A healthy Morales in a contract year spells good things to come for the upcoming season.

Will’s 2013 Projection

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
514 73 27 86 1 .290

 

Second Base: Jedd Gyorko – Padres

If you have never heard of Jedd Gyorko then you should read on, while writing his name down in huge block letters to be tucked away for your draft.

There are some if’s to the next selection. If Jedd Gyorko lives up to his enormous potential this choice will be head and shoulders above all of the others. If he wins the Padres second base job he could have a huge offensive year.

Jedd Gyorko put up Robinson Cano like numbers in the minors. There is one caveat to his huge hitting numbers. He has been playing in the Pacific Coast League for the majority of last season. A league where many hitters become vastly overrated the minute they face major league pitching. I don’t think his numbers are inflated from the PCL because of what he did in the California and Texas league in 2011.

Year Level AB R HR RBI SB AVG
2011 A-AA 576 119 25 114 12 .333
2012 AA-AAA 499 80 30 100 5 .311

As it stands right now Mr. Gyorko will audition for the second base job for the San Diego Padres as spring training begins. He played the majority of his games at third base in the minors. The Padres are trying to convert him to second base, which will cause some growing pains as the season goes on. As we all know things can change quickly in spring training so keep an eye on him to see how much playing time he is receiving.Countdown 13 Graphic

My projections are very conservative. I wanted to give him projections of 20+ homers and him hitting around .300. I believe he makes the opening day roster and his bat will find a way into the lineup. If he starts at second base he will be one of the top contenders for Rookie of the Year and a future fantasy superstar. His bat is major league ready but we will have to see if he can handle second base duties.

Regardless, you will be able to get him cheap and get some good production in a full-time or part-time capacity. He has the upside of an offensive monster at a scarce position. He should not be ignored in your draft.

Will’s 2013 Projections

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
400 55 17 65 2 .292

Continue Reading…

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Minnesota Twins Hitting-Pitching Projections

Clave Jones —  January 7, 2013 — Leave a comment
2013 will be another dreadful year for the Twins.

2013 will be another dreadful year for the Twins.

Minnesota Twins – Predicted Finish: Fifth Place, AL Central.

Let’s talk pitching. I – like everyone else who writes about Twins pitching – will be pretty harsh toward those guys. I’ll be getting my negativity out in this post because the truth hurts so much….here [points to heart]. Among the 14 teams in the American League in 2012, the Twins were last or next to last in almost every pitching category except walks issued. They were bottom of the heap in hits allowed, home runs allowed, strikeouts per 9, earned runs and wins. I could go on and on, but if you look closely, you’ll notice that each of those categories has negative consequences with your fantasy baseball team.

Now let’s talk hitting. National League pitchers hit better than the Minnesota Twins’ middle infielders in 2012 and this will continue in 2013. It’s true. No reason to even check the numbers. Just believe me.

 

Twins Offense

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Darin Mastroianni
 CF 27 R 431 76 8 45 36 .267
Jamey Carroll 2B 39 R 368 50 0 29 5 .287
Joe Mauer C 30 L 518 84 13 80 3 .322
Josh Willingham LF 34 R 552 80 30 90 2 .261
Justin Morneau 1B 31 L 509 72 23 89 0 .291
Ryan Doumit DH 31 S 444 55 17 66 0 .279
Trevor Plouffe 3B 26 R 511 69 26 68 2 .252
Chris Parmelee RF 25 L 420 54 18 57 0 .269
Pedro Florimon
 SS 26 S 247 24 2 22 7 .220

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Mauer, Willingham, Morneau

The Twins projected lineup will be thin, but that doesn’t mean that the heart of the lineup won’t yield some fantasy goodness.  We’ll get to Mauer later, but let’s talk about Morneau and Willingham for a moment.

Morneau is healthy this year. I know, I know. It’s hard to put a lot of trust in him and the MVP seasons will never be there again. But let’s not forget that he is a former MVP, and players with a good eye at the plate tend to see their skills erode more slowly. A healthy Morneau can give you a couple dozen homers and actually help you in the AVG column. The secret is that you should get him for cheap in your fantasy baseball draft. Don’t be afraid to take a late flyer, hoping that a healthy Morneau can provide you with sneaky value.

It seemed like WIllingham came out of nowhere to post his 2012 numbers, but the reality is that he’s always been a pretty good player when on the field. In early mock drafts I’ve seen him fall too far. Don’t be afraid to take him as a 3rd outfielder because he possesses the the skill to hammer home another 30+ homer season. But his fantasy baseball value – like Morneau’s – will depend on how far he is falling in the draft. Snatch them both up if you feel like you can get them for a bargain, but don’t reach for either of them.

 

Twins Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
Closer Glen Perkins 30 L 62 16 2 60 29 2.76 1.17

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: None.Seriously, I can’t believe the Twins will trot our what they’ll call a major league pitching staff and I’m not creating a table for them. This rotation has been assembled from spare parts and I don’t mean that in the movie sort of way where they bond together, realize the true potential hidden deep within, and go on to win it all in the end. I mean it in the saddest way possible.

For the sake of comprehensiveness I’ll will list their names, but it’s not worth anyone’s time to run the projections: Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Kevin Correia, Liam Hendriks, and Mike Pelfrey after he recovers from Tommy John surgery. None of those gentlemen will help your fantasy baseball team in any way, and most will actually do damage to your team if you roster them.

Glen Perkins will be solid in the closer role, but I can’t imagine more than 30 saves coming his way.

 

Fantasy Star: Mauer

Mauer gets more attention for want he doesn’t do, than for what he does. He’ll not hit more than a dozen home runs, it’s true. But there aren’t many guys in baseball who give you a better shot at hitting over .320. Plus, he scores a lot of runs hitting in the 3 hole, plus he’ll give you a solid RBI total. Remember the art of coupling your fantasy baseball players. Pair Mauer up with a big home run hitter, but poor average slugger, and you’ve got a balanced fantasy baseball core.

Plus, call it a hunch, but I think Mauer will have a pretty good season in 2013. Fewer games at catcher was just what the doctor ordered, so he should be healthy and ready to lead the Twins.

 

Fantasy Bust: None

No one is expecting much fantasy value from this team so thee isn’t much distance to fall and bust. This isn’t a team that suffers from unrealistic expectations. If anything, Twins players may come at a value in the draft as the lack of star power may leave other owners avoiding them.

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Plouffe

Few know that Trevor Plouffe was a former first round draft pick. While his path the the majors wasn’t straight and to the right, his contact skills have been slowly trending in the right direction. The Twins are so devoid of major league talent that he’s assured of at bats and – believe it or not – there is 30-homer power in there. If he can get off to a better start than he did in 2012, then Plouffe could be a waiver wire steal.

There you have it: the projected 2013 lineup for the Minnesota Twins. It’s going to be another year with close to 100 loses in the Twin Cities.

 

More American League Central Previews

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How to Understand Player Pool Penetration

Clave Jones —  December 6, 2012 — 5 Comments
Watching the baseball of yesteryear.

Watching the baseball of yesteryear. Image courtesy of the Library of Congress.

We’ve been posting player profiles of big free agent signings (B.J. Upton, Mike Napoli, Dan Haren, and others) immediately after they hit, but I want to step back from that and talk a little draft strategy with you. The inspiration is a mock draft I am currently participating in with several other industry experts, such as the Fantasy Nomad, and Chris McBrien and The Doctor from the Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

I’ve participated in so many fantasy baseball drafts in my life that I can get pretty lax with the entire process, particularly in mock drafts. My zen draft (a kind way to describe my slipshod indifference) approach will never fly with Nash, who approaches a draft with a meticulous plan.

But as I selected my 2nd Round player I figured it would be helpful to glance at the position requirements (I told you I could be a slow kid). The positions are:

 C, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UTIL, SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, Bench x5.

A 12-team mock draft with the above positional requirements brings up some interesting big-picture fantasy baseball draft strategy and I think it would be helpful to us all to take a quick look at it. (See, 200 words in and I’m getting to my point!)

In this draft you are looking at 14 position players drafted, including 2 catchers (gasp!), and you would imagine a bench spot or two would go toward hitters. This is versus just 7 pitchers, plus the remaining bench slots. So how does this mock fantasy baseball lineup overlay to the actual player penetration (Editor’s Note: No jokes yet.) among actual major league clubs? Break out your slide rule, because we’re going to do some math.

Last year the 30 major league teams carried 380 hitters on their rosters. Our mock draft has 12 teams each drafting 16 hitters (14 positions, plus est. 2 bench).

(12×16)/380= 50.5%

So our draft will penetrate (Editor’s Note: Again, no jokes.) just about half of the hitters in the league. This doesn’t factor in positional scarcity. Take catcher, for example, where our mock draft will see 24 catchers fly off the board, which is 80% of major league starters. Yikes.

Last year major league teams carried 370 pitchers on their rosters. Our mock draft has 12 teams each drafting 10 pitchers (7 positions, plus est. 3 bench).

(12×10)/370= 32.4%

So we’re only penetrating (Editor’s Note: Still no jokes.) 32.4% of the major league pitching pool. Interestingly, the pitching positions are designated starter and reliever. The two RP slots represent 80% of the league’s closers, meaning that drafting big-save closers will be imperative, while several #3 starters will actually go undrafted.

What’s the takeaway? It would be foolish to draft a pitcher in the first 10 Rounds of this mock draft! That’s the main point, but let’s break it down point by point, starting with the big picture:

  • Do a little math on the back of a napkin that takes into account your specific league settings and how deeply your league penetrates (That’s what she said!!! Editors Note: And there it is.) the actual major league player pool. This is significant and has repercussions in terms of how you approach the draft.
  • For this particular league, you need to draft a catcher a round or two before you’d typical take him. The 23rd or 24th catcher taken in this mock draft will be an absolute scrub with minimal at bats, but you should be able to scrounge up an outfielder with superior production later in the draft.
  • Likewise, you’ll want to draft your closers a couple rounds early, and fit the “don’t pay for saves” mentality that has been beaten into fantasy baseball players. In this particular draft, the limits imposed by the two RP slots means you won’t be able to draft 3 closers late and spread their saves across three slots. Get two high-saves guys that are reliable (as reliable as a closer can be!) and from wining teams.
  • Wait, wait, wait on pitching. There will be valuable starters available late and you’ll want to use the first several rounds of this draft to fill those hitting slots.

These are suggestions based upon this particular league, so you’ll want to do this simple research for each roster you draft. Count the number of slots, do some quick math, and determine some objective numbers for positional scarcity. Then adjust your draft strategy slightly to address that reality. 

As a sort of prologue, I offer some advice to league managers. There are some subtle changes occurring in baseball (Seriously! Baseball – the slow moving glacier – does slowly change over time, despite what Joe Morgan may believe.) The traditional 14/11 split with team’s 25-man roster is often not typical. In fact, several MLB clubs spend a good portion of the season with just 12 hitters, meaning that they have more pitchers than hitters! (And this trend will accelerate if Colorado’s experiment catches on. It won’t, but if it does.) Yet in fantasy baseball we’re drafting half of the hitters, but only a third of the pitchers. Perhaps it’s time we slowly change as well. It may be as simply as dropping a hitter slot while simultaneously adding a pitching slot, or to add a scoring category such as holds, which allows owners to tap into the previously forgotten middle reliever. Something to think about.

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Dan Haren Nationals: Fantasy Value of Pitcher in DC

Michael Dixon —  December 4, 2012 — 2 Comments
Dan Haren stylin'

How pretty will Dan Haren’s numbers be now that he’s a Nat? Photo courtesy of Yasky.

One of the best pitching staff’s in baseball has added a big name, as according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Nationals have signed Dan Haren to a one-year contract.

The immediate question as far as this site is concerned is simple: What does this do for his fantasy value? Personally, I think it does good things.

The first thing we need to look at is Haren’s 2012 season, which was just not that good. I actually see this is similar to what happened to Tim Lincecum last season. I know that Haren’s best days don’t quite stack up to Lincecum’s, but his 2012 wasn’t nearly as bad. But the conclusion that I drew with Timmy is more or less the same that I have with Haren. They’re both good pitchers who had bad years. It happens. But I think both will be back in strong form in 2013.

But let’s look at the actual move itself and see how it changes things.

The only immediate negative that pops into my head is the change of home venues. Angel Stadium grades out as a 92 for both pitchers and hitters by Baseball-Reference, while they rank Nationals Park at an even 100 for both hitters and pitchers. As it happens, 100 is pretty much neutral (which is about right for anyone who’s watched a game at Nationals Park), while a 92 means it’s a serious pitcher’s park.

Still, I don’t worry too much about Haren pitching in a more hitter-friendly home stadium. Chase Field is a big time hitter’s Park, coming in at 106 for hitters and 105 for pitchers on the Baseball-Reference scale, and Haren enjoyed a lot of success there while with the Diamondbacks. No, he wasn’t great for them in 2010 before getting traded to the Angels, but in the previous two full seasons he had an ERA of 3.23 and 1.064. Haren’s the kind of pitcher who can have a good year anywhere.

There are three real positives that I see here.

Perhaps the least meaningful positive is that this is only a one-year contract, even if it is for more than $13 million. So, I don’t see Haren getting complacent as a risk. He’ll be under the gun to produce a big season if he wants a good contract next year. That never hurts.

After that is the move from the American League to the National League, specifically the National League East. He’ll see a lot of the Braves and Phillies, but also a lot of the Mets and depleted Marlins. In terms of parks, Nationals Park is neutral, Citizen’s Bank Park is a live yard while Citi Field, Turner Field, and  Marlins Park are all good pitching venues.

Also, while I think people overrate this sometimes, not having to face a designated hitter won’t hurt matters, especially in the strikeout department.

The second is that while I think the Angels will be good in 2013, I like the Nationals a lot more, which means more wins. The Angels will probably score more runs, but not by a significant amount, as the Nationals are pretty solid offensively.

But perhaps more important than run support is holding the lead that a pitcher leaves with, and I just trust the Nationals bullpen a lot more than the Angels. In 2012, the Nationals were tied for ninth place in league save percentage at 75 percent, while the Angels were tied for 24th at 63 percent. The Nationals bullpen had a 3.23 ERA, while the Angels were in the bottom 10 in the league, coming in at 3.97.

Wins aren’t the greatest stat to measure a pitcher’s value but don’t kid yourself, they matter in fantasy sports. With the Nationals, I just see Haren winning more games now than he would have if he had stayed in Anaheim.

As for specific value, in our Couch Managers Mock Draft, Haren went in the 14th round, 117th overall. Obviously, that was before he signed anywhere. I now feel pretty confident sliding him somewhere around Round 10, which works out to between 90th and 100th overall. I liked Haren to have a strong bounce-back season already, and this move only makes me more confident.

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: How Valuable is Troy Tulowitzki?

Michael Dixon —  November 30, 2012 — 5 Comments
Tulo

Is sliding the source of Tulo’s woes? Image courtesy of Craig Welling.

It’s not hard to see why Troy Tulowitzki is so dang appealing to fantasy owners out there. From 2009 through 2011, these were his average numbers: 90 runs, 30 homers, 97 RBI, 13 steals, .304 batting average.

That’s not only the most productive fantasy shortstops, but just one of the best offensive players in fantasy ball. But there’s a problem with Tulo as well. He’s played more than 150 games only twice in his career, and not at all since 2009. In 2012, Tulowitzki was good when on the field, unfortunately that was only 47 games.

So, heading into the 2013 fantasy season, how should fantasy owners view the Colorado shortstop. Let’s take a look.

Pros

When you have a guy that can get you numbers expected from an outfielder or first baseman while playing shortstop, it’s not hard to see the pros. Tulowitzki is good for about one or two hot streaks a year and when he gets them, look out. This is how an under-talented Rockies team won the NL Pennant in 2007 and how they won the Wild Card in 2009. When Tulowitzki gets hot, opposing pitchers wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat with him haunting their dreams.

Another pro is something Nash touched on when he wrote about Carlos Gonzalez. When you play half of your games at Coors Field, your numbers will be inflated. Coors is an entirely unique park because it’s dimensions are seriously massive. Outfielders have to play back to cut off the gaps. This leaves plenty of room for bloopers and if a ball ever gets to the wall, a triple is quite possible. Still, the altitude makes the ball fly out of that park just as well as it does in much smaller stadiums, like Citizen’s Bank Park, Yankee Stadium, or The Great American Ballpark. There is no park like it in all of baseball.

Also, the Rockies are a pretty solid offensive team, so Tulo gets plenty of help. Of course, there’s the aforementioned Cargo, but Wilin Rosario is up and coming and I’m very high on him for 2013. Dexter Fowler is a solid top of the order guy, Todd Helton is still decent when he’s on the field, and Michael Cuddyer is made for that park.

Ultimately, the biggest pro for Tulo as far as fantasy stock is that he’s a shortstop. Alcides Escobar had 605 at bats in 2012, playing in 155 games. By the end of the year, he was owned in an overwhelming majority of fantasy leagues. He hit 5 homers. Tulowitzki had 181 at bats over 47 games games. He hit 8 homers. If a guy doesn’t even manage to play one-third of the season and still has more homers than a popular fantasy play at the same position, it tells you all you need to know about how much better he really is than anyone else.

Unfortunately, massive production from a thin position does not tell the full story.

Cons

There are two big cons to Tulowitzki. Actually, we’ll start with the less obvious one.

We established that one of Tulo’s strong points is that he gets to play at Coors Field. Great, but the drawback there is that he’s going to get a healthy dose of National League West pitching. So, when he steps into the batters box, let’s take a look at some of the starters he’ll be seeing 60 feet, 6 inches away: Clayton Kershaw, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Ian Kennedy, and Wade Miley, just to name a few. If guys like Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, Chad Billingsley, and Trevor Cahill can find their form, the list gets even deeper.

Playing in the NL West also means playing the majority of your road games at Dodger Stadium, Petco Park, and AT&T Park. But Tulo is used to those parks and the NL West has had top of the line pitching since he became a full time player.

To show the biggest problem of Tulo’s, let’s take a look at a few more numbers. After all, they are what matters in fantasy baseball, right?

Does the number 120 mean anything to you? It should, because that’s been Tulo’s games played average since 2007. That means that he’s missed an average of 42 games a year. That works out to an average of nearly three DL trips. Even if I eliminate his 47-game season of 2012 and just look at 2007-2011, he’s playing an average of 134 games, which leads to an average of 28 games on the bench, or just under two DL trips.

That’s a problem.

The injuries have been an ever-present part of Tulo’s story since 2008. Yes, he’s still managed to put up great numbers from a bad position. But in this case, the fact that he’s a shortstop works against Tulo. Yes, injuries can happen to a first baseman or outfielder too, but at least there you have a decent chance of getting a productive player on the waiver wire. That’s not going to happen at shortstop in a 10-team league, let alone 12 or more.

Let’s take a close look at 2011 numbers. 81 runs, 30 homers, 105 RBI, 9 steals, .302 average. That’s incredible, right?

Well, in a roto league, yes, those numbers are amazing and you won’t come close to that with any other shortstop in the league. But in a head-to-head format, those 19 missed games could crush your fantasy team. If they come late in the year (the fantasy playoffs), or during a critical matchup, you could well be trying to scratch through without one of your better offensive players. When you’re looking at an early draft pick, you need to know that he’ll be on the field all season.

The 47 games played in 2012 may be a little misleading. Tulo probably would have played in more games if the Rockies were a contender. They were certainly conservative with him because of how far back they were.

The problem is that 2013 doesn’t look to be any different. Yes, they have a decent looking offense, but their pitching is a mess. At this point, I’d call a 72-90 season a real success. So, if Tulo gets another nagging injury, wouldn’t the Rockies be just as cautious this year as they were last, especially as Tulo gets a little bit older?

Now, age isn’t a huge concern at this point, as Tulowitzki turned 28 in October. But the guy missed 61 games when he was 23, 40 when he was 25, 19 when he was 26, and 115 when he was 27. So, while 28 isn’t old, staying healthy was a problem when he was much younger, it stands to reason that they will become more of a problem as he gets older.

Final Verdict

In a recent Mock Draft that we all took part in, Tulowitzki was the first pick of the third round, which worked out to 21st overall. Now, we weren’t drafting based on a specific format and with Tulo, the format makes a big difference.

Numbers are the only thing that really matters in fantasy sports. So, if you can project good numbers despite missed action, you’re still in good shape. That’s especially true in a roto format. In head-to-head, the numbers matter but if time is going to be missed, when the injuries occur is quite important as well.

So, in roto, I think somewhere between 20 and 25 is about right. My suspicion is that when actual drafts take place, he’ll move up into the Top 15. In head-to-head, I couldn’t justify taking Tulo in my Top 35. I know the numbers are likely going to be very good, but I need to have a better feeling that my top picks are going to be on the field at the end of the year. With Tulo, I don’t have that confidence.

Dixon’s Early Projections for Troy Tulowitzki in 2013

AB H BB R HR RBI SB AVG
Best Case Scenario 540 168 72 91 37 105 18 .311
Worst Case Scenario 350 91 31 50 12 49 3 .260
Actual Projections 490 140 55 82 25 82 12 .286

 

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