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Should you buy low on Gio?

Clave Jones —  May 22, 2013 — 2 Comments
Gio is listening to Kenny Chesney. He's a big fan. Image courtesy of flickr.

Gio is listening to Kenny Chesney. He’s a big fan. Image courtesy of flickr.

Some players have had a rough start to the season. And, since Crackerjacks has a minimum word limit, I’ll even tell you who!

Gio Gonzalez had an ERA of 5 after his first seven trips on the mound. His last two starts have been solid (with the latest being superb), so he’s managed to bring his numbers closer in line to what we have come to expect.

What’s disappointing is that we saw what he was capable of last year, and so far we haven’t seen the Gio we’ve come to know and love.

Reasons for Worry

Gio has been stingy with the long ball over his career. In fact, he gave up just 9 over nearly 200 innings of work last year to lead the National League. If you keep the ball in the yard, you keep runs off the board. Sometimes it’s not complicated.

But what’s complicating things is that he’s given up 5 already, just 50 innings into the season. Last season he had cut his HR/9 in half, so it was due for some regression, but if home runs allowed stay at this high rate his ERA will suffer.

Say your prayers, sprinkle some pixie dust, or offer up whatever voodoo you do, because Gio owners have to hold on to hope that these early home runs are a fluke and not a portent to come. Considering buying low on him if you think his HR levels will bounce back to his career levels. (They will. Just trust me.)

Reasons for Optimism

Gio is struggling with his control. So why is that optimism, you ask? Gio has always struggled with his control. There’s nothing to see here.

From ’09-’11 he walked 4.3 per 9. He is carrying a 4.2 mark this season, which looks like an outlier only because of his 3.4 career best last year. Even walking over 4 batters a game in the past Gio has kept an ERA just over 3. His walks aren’t cause for concern…

…because he’s still striking out over 9 batters per 9. His walk and K numbers don’t indicate at all that Gio is in trouble.

Moving Forward

As I write this Gio has had two solid starts. The window for buying low is closing quickly. While it looks like Gio won’t have the career year he enjoyed last year, there isn’t anything to indicate that he won’t continue to lower his ERA moving forward. Couple that with elite strikeout rates and a fantastic offense behind him that should lead to plenty of WINS, and you have a fantastic fantasy baseball pitcher.

If you have a panicky owner in one of your leagues, then give him a solid offer for Gio. He’s a good buy low candidate. If you are a Gio owner, then sit tight and make sure you don’t give up on him too quickly. You’ll want his K’s later.

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Fantasy Baseball Time Travel: 2014′s First Round Draft Picks

Clave Jones —  May 21, 2013 — Leave a comment
Could Bryce Harper go #1 overall next year?

Could Bryce Harper go #1 overall next year?

I’m in one league where less than an month into the season and a couple of owners blew up their teams. I guess they couldn’t take the poor performance of their top draft picks.

Well, if those owners are already looking ahead to next’s year’s draft, then let’s look with them.  Based upon the play of this April, who would be the first round picks next year?

Now before some joker with poor reading comprehension comments on how it’s only April and much too early to think about next year’s draft, we all realize this is for fun, right? Just like those owners shouldn’t have blown up their teams after just one month, it’s silly to be thinking about next year’s draft after just one month.

Let’s do it anyway!

Realizing that drafts were different, I’ll just list 15 guys who were the odd’s on bets to be a first round pick in most leagues. We’ll give them a pass / fail grade, then jump forward to the 15 guys whose present performance is laying claim to a first round draft pick in 2014.

Miguel Cabrera gets a passing grade for certain. He went #1 overall in lots of drafts and is proving why in that he’s following up a Triple Crown season with even stronger numbers this season.

Ryan Braun isn’t having a career year, but owners should hardly be disappointed with much, unless they are fixated on his having just two stolen bases.

Mike Trout got off to a slow start and those who love to say ‘told you so’ were more than happy to decry a sophomore slump. Well, he warmed up quickly and proved that the critics spoke too soon.

Robinson Cano has once again been unspectacularly spectacular. He’s proven that he was worthy of a top pick by once again hitting for power and average.

Andrew McCutchen has seen his average free fall this year, while his homers and steals have been respectable. Owners who drafted him high hoping for an increase on his 2012 success may be wishing they took another pick.

Matt Kemp has been horrible. His average is slowly climbing as are his steals but a single home run is not first round material, particularly not for someone who has 40/40 potential.

Joey Votto loves to take long walks, something I’ve written about before. His average is superb and he’s starting to swing away a bit, but you hope for more homers and RBI from a first round pick.

Albert Pujols has seen his slow starts last longer and longer. At some point they will simply last all season. I think he’s already showing that he doesn’t belong in first round conversation much longer.

Carlos Gonzalez already has 30 runs, is hitting for power and stealing bases, while doing everything else that you hope a first round pick will do. I have to imagine his owners are pleased thus far.

Prince Fielder was probably drafted late in round one if he didn’t slide into the early second. Well, he’s performed like a late first round pick, so I can’t imagine anyone is displeased.

Troy Tulowitzki has been on the field all season and played like we all know he can play. He’s a first round pick if healthy.

Justin Verlander was most likely a second round pick, but I did hear of a few guys going against the grain to grab a pitcher first. I’m sure they are pleased with his performance thus far.

Buster Posey was likewise a probably second round pick, although his slow start would be hard=pressed to justify even that thus far. But he’s thawing out.

David Wright was snatched up by some guys who like to grab thin positions early. He’s rewarded them with solid all-around play.

Giancarlo Stanton has 50 homer potential so he snuck into the first round in a lot of drafts. So far it’s been an absolutely wasted pick.

Shockingly, the first round has held up quite well, considering that on average a full 40% of first rounders fail to return first round value. Maybe this is a year that we see that number dip and see owners rewarded for their early pick. With that in mind, let’s list out 14 for 2014, just for fun.

  1. Miguel Cabrera: Based upon his history and early season numbers, there is little reason not to look at him early in 2014.
  2. Ryan Braun: While it looks like his steals will tumble somewhat, he’s still got that track record you like in the first round.
  3. Justin Upton: He’s flashed MVP before and it looks like his age plus potential will rocket him up draft charts.
  4. Bryce Harper: He’s showing insane power at a freakishly early age. Why wouldn’t you draft him early in 2014?
  5. Mike Trout: Maybe his slow start will give drafters pause. But it looks like there is little doubt that he’ll be drafted high in 2014.
  6. Carlos Gonzalez: While he is hitting for average while flashing power and speed, he’ll be a solid #1 again.
  7. Robinson Cano: There will be so much contract chatter that folks will grow sick off hearing about him. Still, they’d be nuts not to draft him.
  8. Paul Goldschmidt: Why not? He’s now had plenty at bats to prove he’s for real. He takes the spot Pujols used to occupy as an elite first baseman.
  9. Evan Longoria: He’s right now putting together the season that folks knew he could. It’s not unimaginable he’ll be the second third baseman off the board.
  10. David Wright: One more year before his speed goes in decline and Manny Machado is making him look like yesterday’s news. But never underestimate the masses drafting a solid track record in the first round.
  11. Adam Jones: He goes a little under the radar, but he’s following up a break-out season with another gem. His stock will rise.
  12. Matt Kemp: His horrible start will scare off many, but the wise will realize that he’ll be a steal in this slot.
  13. Andrew McCutchen: Many will say his 2012 was a career year. Others will draft for a repeat in 2014.
  14. Troy Tulowitzki: It was hard not putting Joey Votto in this spot (or even Anthony Rizzo), but if Votto hits under 25 homers, folks will go for the thin SS position, provided Tulo stays on the field.

It’s obviously too early to tell, but is there anyone I missed that you think will be a first rounder in 2014? Let us know via Twitter or in the comments.

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A Royal Mess of an Outfield

Clave Jones —  May 20, 2013 — 1 Comment
Frenchie was soooo close on this one.

Frenchie was soooo close on this one.

I’ve enjoyed watching the Kansas City Royals have a strong start to the season, as I was prepared to never witness it again. It’s like I was holding out hope that Bo Jackson would somehow return the Royals to glory.

While they don’t have Bo, the Royals do now have some talent in the outfield, although things are a little bit of a mess right now. Let’s start with the good news, shift quickly to the bad, then spend the remaining 200 words talking about how I simply adore Jeff Francoeur.

The Good News

Alex Gordon has really settled into his role hitting third, showing that he’s quite the run producer. With almost 30 Runs and 30 RBI, he has been a great fantasy baseball performer thus far. His 6 homers have been nice, but it’s his .330 average that has helped fantasy owners keep a high team average.

Batting average shouldn’t be overlooked as a category. With players striking out more and more, averages will continue to drop. With .300 hitters becoming a scarce commodity, it’s important to have a couple on your team, particularly if they offer the runs scored of Gordon.

So left field is better than just stable for the Royals, it’s one of the best in baseball.

Lorenzo Cain has transitioned successfully to right field (more on this later) and he’s been a great surprise early in the fantasy season. OK, perhaps he hasn’t been a total surprise – as he was a trendy sleeper – but it’s nice to see him step into his potential after injuries have derailed him for so long.

While I don’t think his .320+ batting average is sustainable, he has been nice on the base paths with 6 steals already. The one homer is disappointing, but I think he has 10-12 homers in him for the season. I’ve written about him before, so cruise over there if you are interested in a deeper look at Cain.

The Bad News

While Cain’s move to right was successful, it hasn’t lasted long. Jarrod Dyson had taken over the center field job, only to injure his ankle trying to take away a homer from Mike Trout. Mike Trout is the only player who can leap over the wall to take away a homer from Mike Trout.

Dyson is a light hitter, but he has plenty of speed. If his ankle injury isn’t serious, he would be a nice candidate to stash as a source of cheap steals. Additionally, he’ll score some runs if he sticks at the top of the Royal’s lineup.

Injury or not, he plays best as a fourth outfielder, but Jeff Francoeur is physically incapable of laying off a pitch. I swear he’d swing at a pitch thrown to the cutoff man. That means he’s back starting in right field and flashing with rocket arm and winning style. Do not place him on your fantasy team. I repeat, do not place him on your fantasy team.

Now can I tell you why I love Francoeur?

First, don’t you? He’s well know as being once of the nicest guys in baseball, routinely going above and beyond for fans, even giving them bacon, pizza and beer money. He’s well-known to be compassionate and generous.

Beyond that, he’s a strong leader and clubhouse guy, going so far as taking batting practice nude, wearing only pink cleats to loosen up the team (no GIF of this fortunately). He’ll even tag the nuggets of his coaches if it will bring a smile.

I love Francoeur. I just wish he could hit the darned baseball and provided even a modicum of fantasy baseball value. I’d roster that in a second if he did!

For now, let’s smile at Francoeur, while we wish Dyson a quick recovery.

franc-tap1

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Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast: May 13, 2013

Clave Jones —  May 15, 2013 — Leave a comment

Chris and the Doctor are joined by their guest Gina Muscato this week for an hour of fantasy baseball talk. Click HERE to listen.

As always, they play a game of “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players based on tweets and emails from listeners. Click here to submit your “Who’d You Rather?”

Then they discuss hot and cold players. Players on a hot streak are: Kelly Johnson (TB), Juan Pierre (MIA) and Mitch Moreland (TEX). Players on a cold streak are: Jed Lowrie (OAK) and David Freese (STL).

Waiver Wire pitchers discussed are: Kevin Slowey (MIA), Zach McAllister (CLE) and Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE).

They close the show by responding to emails.

 

As always, it’s a great show and while it’s stuffed full of fantasy baseball analysis, it’s clocks in at just about an hour. Twitter even likes it:

Click here to catch up on last week’s show or HERE to subscribe in iTunes so you never miss a week.

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Mythical Rookies and the Magical Hype Machine

Clave Jones —  May 14, 2013 — Leave a comment

Jose Fernandez

At the risk of sounding like a grandpa, today’s fantasy baseball’s expectations just aren’t as reasonable as they used to be. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have done mythical things on the baseball field at an absurdly early age. A side effect has been that they have perhaps skewed the expectations of what should be expected for a rookie on your fantasy baseball team.

The hype machine raises the roof on what a rookie can accomplish, meaning the ceilings we’re placing on several rookies are entirely unrealistic. For the next 450 words I’ll talk about 2 highly hyped rookies of myth and legend, one pitcher and one hitter, but give you are realistic comparison for the production of the rookie in their prime.

Jackie Bradley

Let’s start with Jackie Bradley, the 20-year-old outfielder for the Boston Red Sox who hit the cover off the ball in Spring Training, only to struggle in the Majors and get shipped back to Triple A. He was a trendy pickup to begin the season and I heard for gaudy expectations thrown around. But what can we expect from Bradley when he rights the ship and is eventually called back to The Show for good.

The first comp that pops to mind is Norichika Aoki. Despite his slow start, I’m a fan of Aoki and have written about him before. He’ll strike about right around the same rate that he walks which is something we’ll ultimately see out of Bradley. That’s makes them great for OBP leagues.

Second, Aoki will swipe 20+ bases, which is a fair over/under for Bradley. Not blazers, but smart on the basepaths. Bradley might have a bit more upside in the power department, but is you bank on 12 you won’t be disappointed.

Over a full season of at bats from the leadoff position and you are looking at a 80 12 50 22 .280 line. Both player’s best seasons will see an uptick in a couple of the categories, but on average you are looking at a fine 3rd or 4th fantasy outfielder, also known as Denard Span. Helpful, but nothing to build a team around, so reset those expectations accordingly.

Jose Fernandez

Jose Fernandez is a 20-year-old Cuban defector who once jumped off a raft to save his mom from drowning is being hyped and compared to Doc Gooden. I should be clear that the comparison is not Cuban raft hopping, but the fact that Doc pitched a 24 W / 3 L, 1.53 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 268 K line in 276 innings as a 20-year-old. Dear Lord, I really sound like a grandpa, but they simply don’t make pitchers like they used to.

Step back from Doc Gooden comparison as it won’t happen this year for Fernandez. But what is a reasonable expectation in Jose’s prime? First, no pitcher in baseball will get 276 innings this season, much less the Miami Marlins youngster. But other 20-year-olds have pitched nearly 200, including CC Sabathia, Fernando Valenzuela, Felix Hernandez, Rick Ankiel (remember that, kids?), and Rick Porcello. Drop to around 150 innings and you get Bret Saberhagen and Zack Greinke, lofty company.

A quick peek at that list and you can see why Jose Fernandez is as hyped as he is! Well, he’ll be better than Rick Porcello even this season. Based upon strikeout and walk rates and I think Fernandez will put up numbers similar to Sabathia, minus the Wins. But that’s two years from now, assuming he doesn’t develop Sabathia’s body type (he won’t). Fernandez is a star in the making.

 

So there you have a realistic comparable for two hyped rookies. One is a player to stash because his prime years could make him one of fantasy baseball’s best pitchers, while the other could make a fine 3rd outfielder. Sorry neither will reach mythic status this season.

Are you interested in comparables for other rookies? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter.

 

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Who is baseball’s next superstar closer?

Clave Jones —  April 30, 2013 — Leave a comment
Vinnie celebrates another Hold.

Vinnie celebrates another Hold.

Just like the guy who picked up 100 Gregg Jefferies rookie cards because he thought they’d be worth something some day, I like to speculate as well. I speculate on future MLB closers.

I like to have a pulse future closer candidates so I can be ready to stake my waiver claim and rack up cheap saves for my fantasy baseball team. Previously, I wrote about the qualities I look for when scouting future closers: a dominate a fastball, a second pitch that’s just as filthy, and a little pinch of something else that sells me on the idea that the guy can hold on to the job.

Ultimately, it all comes down to opportunity and an open path to a 9th inning job, so I keep a list. Once a month or so I’ll run down this list of potential closers, researching if there have been any organizational changes that might give give him a clearly path toward the job. I’m also double-checking his skill set to double-check my initial assessment.

Closer speculation is serious business for the fantasy baseball obsessed.

Stock up on these guys’ rookies cards, because without further adieu, here’s a look into the future of the closer position:

Arodys Vizcaino

The Cubs are rebuilding their bullpen, this much is clear. Carlos Marmol has been in the doghouse his entire career in Chicago, so there is no chance he’s there in the future. Kyuji Fujikawa closed out games in Japan and looked minted as the heir apparent before injury hit. Kevin Gregg (what’s up with the double-G Greggs?!?!) might get a short term shot because they sure rushed him up, but he’s no long-term solution.

I have my eye on Arodys Vizcaino. Coming over from the Braves, he’s still recovering from TJ surgery, having missed all of 2012.

His fastball has clocked at 101 mph. He also has a nice fastball that the old schoolers might call a slurve. Obviously, the orginal thinking was the starting rotation, but with his injury history and arsenal well suited for relief, it just might be the case that Vizcaino is the future closer for the Cubbies.

Carter Capps

Carter Capps is already throwing heat for the Mariners. Early in his career Capps threw about 99.9% fastballs, which was fine and dandy, considering he could easily blow his 97 mph fastball by just about anyone.

Now he’s down to about 80% fastballs as he’s added a slider to his arsenal, making him even more of a strikeout pitcher. The fact that he was a college closer gives him a reference on his resumé. The only thing in his way is Tom Wilhelmsen a capable and underrated ninth inning arm.

Vinnie Pestano

I always think of My Cousin Vinnie when I think of Vinnie Pestano. I’m a simple-minded man.

For a moment it was near certain that Pestano would take over from Chris Perez, until Perez shockingly decided to stop being so horrible at pitching. Now Pestano’s biological clock is ticking, ticking as he may have missed his window during a slight velocity decrease.

Still, Pestano is crazy hard to hit, which keeps his WHIP low, making him golden in Holds leagues.

Andrew Cashner

Andrew Cashner throws absurdly hard, registering triple digits on a regular basis. Currently he’s stretched out for middle relief and makes spot starts for the Padres. They want him to work his way into the rotation, but his best role might be the ninth inning.

Whether he ultimately lands in the rotation or racks up saves, watch him closely. His 100 mph fastball truly is a thing of beauty. AS he gains command, he’s going to be great.

Marcus Stroman

Marcus Stroman was closer for Team USA so why is he not already closing for the Blue Jays, our Canadian friends and neighbors? Well, he’s missing a bit of time for a failed drug test (stimulant).

Just 5’9″, Stroman can still generate a ton of velocity on his fastball, reaching the upper 90′s. He’s also known to have the best slider in the Jays organization. That’s closer stuff.

Jake McGee

I was a year too early on Jake McGee. I thought he’d be the Rays closer in 2012, but then Fernando Rodney went out and auditioned for the best pitcher in the world award, nearly winning it. Still in shock from the Rodney resurgence, it’s worth noting McGee’s game because he’s the future.

McGee throws in the 92-94 range, but it’s a fastball with a lot of life to it that both cuts and sinks, making it one of baseball’s best. He also throws a changeup and sliding curve, although neither are as effective.

He’s shown a lack of “it”, that hard to define extra something that would give him an edge. But he’s young yet, and still could pitch his way into the ninth.

Kelvin Herrera

Greg Holland never gives up home runs. Like, never ever. So despite the cries for him to lose KC’s closing duties, he brings a lot to the table.  Also, Tim Collins and Aaron Crow are crazy talented. Actually, what Kansas City has put together for a bullpen is the envy of the league. How often has that been said about anything the Royals have done?

But it’s hard not to imagine Kelvin Herrera in the closer role, considering that Herrera throws the fastest fastball in baseball. In addition, Herrera is learning to harness his 102 mph heater more and more each passing season, making it look even more enticing for him in the 9th innings of ballgames.

Honorable Mentions:

That’s all for now, although Vic Black and Heath Hembree almost made the list. But as I said, I revisit this list often, taking a fresh look at opportunity and skills changes. Who knows who will occupy this list in just a couple months…

 

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Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast: April 29, 2013

Clave Jones —  April 30, 2013 — Leave a comment

Click HERE to listen to this week’s installment of the Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast. The show notes are below.

Chris and the Doctor are joined by their guest Jonathan Mitchell from MLB Dirt.

They play a game of “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players based on tweets and emails from listeners.

Players on a hot streak are: Nate McLouth (BAL), Yuniesky Betancourt (MIL) and Chris Young (OAK). Players  on a cold streak are: Michael Morse (SEA) and Victor Martinez (DET).

The guys pass “Fantasy Judgment” on an issue in a listener’s fantasy league.

Waiver Wire pitchers are: Jose Quintana (CWS), Bartolo Colon (OAK) and Jorge De La Rosa (COL).

They guys also respond to emails and read a review from iTunes.

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Why I was nervous about Joey Votto

Clave Jones —  April 24, 2013 — Leave a comment
Votto. Photo courtesy of Getty Images.

Votto. Photo courtesy of Getty Images.

Joey Votto has begun the season with an on base percentage above .500. To get on base over half the time and for Votto to maintain that pace over a full season would put him on a short list of players that includes Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle. For context, among active players, Votto is the career OBP leader at .419.

So why would I be scared as a fantasy owner if I had a player on my roster who was putting up truly remarkable numbers?

Hold on, I’m about the lay the horror on you. AAAAIIIIEEEEE!!

As an aside, did anyone really fall for my fake scream of terror? No? OK, I didn’t imagine so.  You shouldn’t, of course, because as a fantasy owned I’m obviously tickled pink to have Joey Votto.

But yet I bought low on Ike Davis so I could have him serve as a UTIL complement to Votto. Why?  Because I wanted a guy who actually swung the bat from time to time, that’s why.

Home runs and RBI are two of the most common fantasy categories and to hit the ball over the fence you need to take a swing at a pitch. And while Votto could certainly draw a bases loaded walk to “drive” in a run, I’d certainly prefer he cleared the bases from time to time and got his RBI the old fashioned way.

I won’t even try to lay on any more fake cries of agony, because we all know that Votto’s plate discipline and patience is what makes him the remarkable hitter that he is, and I wouldn’t ask him to change. As if I could! Do these guys even have fan clubs or a place to write letters anymore? Honestly, I don’t even think I own any stamps. If I could find one do you think I could get Votto to sign my card?!!? I’d keep it with my signed Mark Grace card. I have one of those.

As a Twins fan I have watched Joe Mauer border on the painfully passive at times. Game after game I’ve watched Joe come up to bat with a runner on base and instead of driving the ball into the gap, he’d work the count and emotionlessly take his place on first base. Being a hard out is what makes Joe Mauer a great player, but I’m not going to lie and say that I haven’t hoped he’d unload on a pitch from time to time.

I worried the same of Votto so I grabbed Ike on the cheap, knowing that he’ll strike out 130 times this season, but he’ll also add generously to my fantasy team’s home run and RBI totals. I like a slugger like Ike as complement to Votto.

Plus, even as this post sat unfinished as a draft for a few days, Votto came out and hit a couple bombs. Of course, his early season walk pace wasn’t sustainable and it was such a small sample size.

Come to think of it, I don’t know what I was so worried about.

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Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast: April 22, 2013

Clave Jones —  April 23, 2013 — Leave a comment

This week Chris and the Doctor are joined by Crackerjack’s very own Eric Pleiss.  Besides being a must follow on Twitter, Eric writes about the Minnesota Twins at Knuckleballs Blog and BaseballTwins.com. Give the podcast a listen while you are reading Eric’s stuff on Crackerjacks. Multi-task!

Click HERE to listen.

As always, they play a game of “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players based on tweets and emails from listeners. This is extrememly for for those fantasy baseball players who get caught with that either/or decision.

Players on a hot streak who are discussed: Brandon Crawford (SF), Chris Carter (HOU) and Zack Cozart (CIN). Players on a cold streak are: Ike Davis (NYM) and Jose Bautista (TOR).

The podcast lands by discussing the following Waiver Wire pitchers: Tony Cingrani (CIN), Carlos Villanueva (CHC) and Patrick Corbin (ARI).

Tons of fantasy baseball advice and analysis in under an hour.

..

Contact the podcast via the contact info below. Submit your own “Who’d you rather”, submit a league dispute for resolution, or just offer feedback or suggestions.

Twitter – @cmcbrien or @TheFantasyDR

Email – cmcbrien@dmfantasybaseball.com

Facebook – Dear Mr. Fantasy Page

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A MLB Closer: The Measure of a Man

Clave Jones —  April 23, 2013 — Leave a comment
Kelvin Herrera, a 102 mph high-five. Image courtesy of Minda Haas.

Kelvin Herrera, a 102 mph high-five. Image courtesy of Minda Haas.

I just traded away a closer, which is something I most likely will do at least once more this season. While I’m not entirely of the “never pay for saves” crowd (you have to pay something for saves), I do treat saves as a fungible commodity. My working mindset is that there’s a good shot I can find the next 9th inning guy, making my current closers perfect trade chips if I need to upgrade elsewhere. So I spin a closer off, only to then find another.

There’s my lede, written to give a nugget of fantasy baseball advice, before I shift toward looking at the qualities that make a closer. Remember, closers aren’t made in the minors. Rarely is there any type of correlation at all between the number of saves a player has in the minors and the numbers of saves he’ll get in the Majors.

Closers are rarely groomed, it’s usually a role stumbling into based upon a a skill set. So when scouting potential closers you are looking for a skill set, not experience.

Again, I’m just talking scouting the minors. Rarely will the Triple A guy with 30 saves be a dominant MLB closer, because a closer in the minors is not given the same value and it’s rarely a pitcher with upside. A closer in the minors is often the team’s 29-year-old journeyman while the young guy with more upside to his skillset is being given looks in different roles (the the starting rotation).

But often they’ll flash certain skills, make the MLB roster as a bullpen arm, show success in getting out major leagues batters, then finally get opportunities in the 9th inning when an opportunity arrises due to injuries or ineffectiveness of the incumbent.

So what’s the measure of a closure?  What’s the kind of skills you’re scouting if you want to have a deep list of possible future closer candidates?

Makeup

We’ve heard a million times from managers something to the effect of “closer experience.” They are looking for a certain amount of confidence and emotional discipline in their closer. Swagger. Machismo.

While not something that can be measured, nor it is often rational, it’s still a fact of the game. In order to get the opportunity a potential closer typically has to exhibit that he has at least a little bit of “it.” What “it” is.

Cheese

A second rule of thumb is that a potential closer candidate needs to throw the heat. A quality fastball that hits the mid-90′s certainly looks good on the resumé. If the candidate can write a killer cover letter that displays his make up, then he might just get an interview.

Obviously, every closer can’t throw 100 mph like Aroldis Chapman, not does every pitcher that throws the ball hard make a good closer. Andrew Cashner throws just as fast, but let’s look instead at Kelvin Herrera. Herrera actually had the highest average fastball velocity in 2012, but his strikeout rate wasn’t nearly as high as Aroldis Chapman’s. That’s because it’s not just speed, it’s also location and movement and a host of 100 other things. Speed alone won’t generate a swing and miss, as Herrera found out. His lack of fastball movement simply generated weak contact. But 2013 is already flashing a little more life in Herrera’s fastball, meaning that the movement coupled with the speed should pay dividends on the strikeout rate and raise his chances of a future job as closer.

Out Pitch

But it’s not always the fastball that leads to all the swings and misses. Often times it’s the secondary pitch that will serve as a closer’s out pitch, anyone who has seen Craig Kimbrel‘s filthy 87 mph curveball.

The takeaway here is that you should scout relievers whose second pitch is just as good as their first. That’s a player who is a future closer in the making, as that second pitch keeps hitters scared and leads to the quick outs needed by a closer.

 

So there is how I scout my future closers. I’m looking for a skillset that consists of a dominate fastball and equally effective second pitch, wrapped up in a player that has “it.” That’s how you measure a man with a chance to get you saves. In Part 2 later this week, I’ll share with you several guys who have made the list.

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