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Jose Fernandez

At the risk of sounding like a grandpa, today’s fantasy baseball’s expectations just aren’t as reasonable as they used to be. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper have done mythical things on the baseball field at an absurdly early age. A side effect has been that they have perhaps skewed the expectations of what should be expected for a rookie on your fantasy baseball team.

The hype machine raises the roof on what a rookie can accomplish, meaning the ceilings we’re placing on several rookies are entirely unrealistic. For the next 450 words I’ll talk about 2 highly hyped rookies of myth and legend, one pitcher and one hitter, but give you are realistic comparison for the production of the rookie in their prime.

Jackie Bradley

Let’s start with Jackie Bradley, the 20-year-old outfielder for the Boston Red Sox who hit the cover off the ball in Spring Training, only to struggle in the Majors and get shipped back to Triple A. He was a trendy pickup to begin the season and I heard for gaudy expectations thrown around. But what can we expect from Bradley when he rights the ship and is eventually called back to The Show for good.

The first comp that pops to mind is Norichika Aoki. Despite his slow start, I’m a fan of Aoki and have written about him before. He’ll strike about right around the same rate that he walks which is something we’ll ultimately see out of Bradley. That’s makes them great for OBP leagues.

Second, Aoki will swipe 20+ bases, which is a fair over/under for Bradley. Not blazers, but smart on the basepaths. Bradley might have a bit more upside in the power department, but is you bank on 12 you won’t be disappointed.

Over a full season of at bats from the leadoff position and you are looking at a 80 12 50 22 .280 line. Both player’s best seasons will see an uptick in a couple of the categories, but on average you are looking at a fine 3rd or 4th fantasy outfielder, also known as Denard Span. Helpful, but nothing to build a team around, so reset those expectations accordingly.

Jose Fernandez

Jose Fernandez is a 20-year-old Cuban defector who once jumped off a raft to save his mom from drowning is being hyped and compared to Doc Gooden. I should be clear that the comparison is not Cuban raft hopping, but the fact that Doc pitched a 24 W / 3 L, 1.53 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 268 K line in 276 innings as a 20-year-old. Dear Lord, I really sound like a grandpa, but they simply don’t make pitchers like they used to.

Step back from Doc Gooden comparison as it won’t happen this year for Fernandez. But what is a reasonable expectation in Jose’s prime? First, no pitcher in baseball will get 276 innings this season, much less the Miami Marlins youngster. But other 20-year-olds have pitched nearly 200, including CC Sabathia, Fernando Valenzuela, Felix Hernandez, Rick Ankiel (remember that, kids?), and Rick Porcello. Drop to around 150 innings and you get Bret Saberhagen and Zack Greinke, lofty company.

A quick peek at that list and you can see why Jose Fernandez is as hyped as he is! Well, he’ll be better than Rick Porcello even this season. Based upon strikeout and walk rates and I think Fernandez will put up numbers similar to Sabathia, minus the Wins. But that’s two years from now, assuming he doesn’t develop Sabathia’s body type (he won’t). Fernandez is a star in the making.

 

So there you have a realistic comparable for two hyped rookies. One is a player to stash because his prime years could make him one of fantasy baseball’s best pitchers, while the other could make a fine 3rd outfielder. Sorry neither will reach mythic status this season.

Are you interested in comparables for other rookies? Let us know in the comments or on Twitter.

 

Vinnie celebrates another Hold.

Vinnie celebrates another Hold.

Just like the guy who picked up 100 Gregg Jefferies rookie cards because he thought they’d be worth something some day, I like to speculate as well. I speculate on future MLB closers.

I like to have a pulse future closer candidates so I can be ready to stake my waiver claim and rack up cheap saves for my fantasy baseball team. Previously, I wrote about the qualities I look for when scouting future closers: a dominate a fastball, a second pitch that’s just as filthy, and a little pinch of something else that sells me on the idea that the guy can hold on to the job.

Ultimately, it all comes down to opportunity and an open path to a 9th inning job, so I keep a list. Once a month or so I’ll run down this list of potential closers, researching if there have been any organizational changes that might give give him a clearly path toward the job. I’m also double-checking his skill set to double-check my initial assessment.

Closer speculation is serious business for the fantasy baseball obsessed.

Stock up on these guys’ rookies cards, because without further adieu, here’s a look into the future of the closer position:

Arodys Vizcaino

The Cubs are rebuilding their bullpen, this much is clear. Carlos Marmol has been in the doghouse his entire career in Chicago, so there is no chance he’s there in the future. Kyuji Fujikawa closed out games in Japan and looked minted as the heir apparent before injury hit. Kevin Gregg (what’s up with the double-G Greggs?!?!) might get a short term shot because they sure rushed him up, but he’s no long-term solution.

I have my eye on Arodys Vizcaino. Coming over from the Braves, he’s still recovering from TJ surgery, having missed all of 2012.

His fastball has clocked at 101 mph. He also has a nice fastball that the old schoolers might call a slurve. Obviously, the orginal thinking was the starting rotation, but with his injury history and arsenal well suited for relief, it just might be the case that Vizcaino is the future closer for the Cubbies.

Carter Capps

Carter Capps is already throwing heat for the Mariners. Early in his career Capps threw about 99.9% fastballs, which was fine and dandy, considering he could easily blow his 97 mph fastball by just about anyone.

Now he’s down to about 80% fastballs as he’s added a slider to his arsenal, making him even more of a strikeout pitcher. The fact that he was a college closer gives him a reference on his resumé. The only thing in his way is Tom Wilhelmsen a capable and underrated ninth inning arm.

Vinnie Pestano

I always think of My Cousin Vinnie when I think of Vinnie Pestano. I’m a simple-minded man.

For a moment it was near certain that Pestano would take over from Chris Perez, until Perez shockingly decided to stop being so horrible at pitching. Now Pestano’s biological clock is ticking, ticking as he may have missed his window during a slight velocity decrease.

Still, Pestano is crazy hard to hit, which keeps his WHIP low, making him golden in Holds leagues.

Andrew Cashner

Andrew Cashner throws absurdly hard, registering triple digits on a regular basis. Currently he’s stretched out for middle relief and makes spot starts for the Padres. They want him to work his way into the rotation, but his best role might be the ninth inning.

Whether he ultimately lands in the rotation or racks up saves, watch him closely. His 100 mph fastball truly is a thing of beauty. AS he gains command, he’s going to be great.

Marcus Stroman

Marcus Stroman was closer for Team USA so why is he not already closing for the Blue Jays, our Canadian friends and neighbors? Well, he’s missing a bit of time for a failed drug test (stimulant).

Just 5’9″, Stroman can still generate a ton of velocity on his fastball, reaching the upper 90′s. He’s also known to have the best slider in the Jays organization. That’s closer stuff.

Jake McGee

I was a year too early on Jake McGee. I thought he’d be the Rays closer in 2012, but then Fernando Rodney went out and auditioned for the best pitcher in the world award, nearly winning it. Still in shock from the Rodney resurgence, it’s worth noting McGee’s game because he’s the future.

McGee throws in the 92-94 range, but it’s a fastball with a lot of life to it that both cuts and sinks, making it one of baseball’s best. He also throws a changeup and sliding curve, although neither are as effective.

He’s shown a lack of “it”, that hard to define extra something that would give him an edge. But he’s young yet, and still could pitch his way into the ninth.

Kelvin Herrera

Greg Holland never gives up home runs. Like, never ever. So despite the cries for him to lose KC’s closing duties, he brings a lot to the table.  Also, Tim Collins and Aaron Crow are crazy talented. Actually, what Kansas City has put together for a bullpen is the envy of the league. How often has that been said about anything the Royals have done?

But it’s hard not to imagine Kelvin Herrera in the closer role, considering that Herrera throws the fastest fastball in baseball. In addition, Herrera is learning to harness his 102 mph heater more and more each passing season, making it look even more enticing for him in the 9th innings of ballgames.

Honorable Mentions:

That’s all for now, although Vic Black and Heath Hembree almost made the list. But as I said, I revisit this list often, taking a fresh look at opportunity and skills changes. Who knows who will occupy this list in just a couple months…

 

Click HERE to listen to this week’s installment of the Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast. The show notes are below.

Chris and the Doctor are joined by their guest Jonathan Mitchell from MLB Dirt.

They play a game of “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players based on tweets and emails from listeners.

Players on a hot streak are: Nate McLouth (BAL), Yuniesky Betancourt (MIL) and Chris Young (OAK). Players  on a cold streak are: Michael Morse (SEA) and Victor Martinez (DET).

The guys pass “Fantasy Judgment” on an issue in a listener’s fantasy league.

Waiver Wire pitchers are: Jose Quintana (CWS), Bartolo Colon (OAK) and Jorge De La Rosa (COL).

They guys also respond to emails and read a review from iTunes.

Why I was nervous about Joey Votto

Clave Jones —  April 24, 2013 — Leave a comment
Votto. Photo courtesy of Getty Images.

Votto. Photo courtesy of Getty Images.

Joey Votto has begun the season with an on base percentage above .500. To get on base over half the time and for Votto to maintain that pace over a full season would put him on a short list of players that includes Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle. For context, among active players, Votto is the career OBP leader at .419.

So why would I be scared as a fantasy owner if I had a player on my roster who was putting up truly remarkable numbers?

Hold on, I’m about the lay the horror on you. AAAAIIIIEEEEE!!

As an aside, did anyone really fall for my fake scream of terror? No? OK, I didn’t imagine so.  You shouldn’t, of course, because as a fantasy owned I’m obviously tickled pink to have Joey Votto.

But yet I bought low on Ike Davis so I could have him serve as a UTIL complement to Votto. Why?  Because I wanted a guy who actually swung the bat from time to time, that’s why.

Home runs and RBI are two of the most common fantasy categories and to hit the ball over the fence you need to take a swing at a pitch. And while Votto could certainly draw a bases loaded walk to “drive” in a run, I’d certainly prefer he cleared the bases from time to time and got his RBI the old fashioned way.

I won’t even try to lay on any more fake cries of agony, because we all know that Votto’s plate discipline and patience is what makes him the remarkable hitter that he is, and I wouldn’t ask him to change. As if I could! Do these guys even have fan clubs or a place to write letters anymore? Honestly, I don’t even think I own any stamps. If I could find one do you think I could get Votto to sign my card?!!? I’d keep it with my signed Mark Grace card. I have one of those.

As a Twins fan I have watched Joe Mauer border on the painfully passive at times. Game after game I’ve watched Joe come up to bat with a runner on base and instead of driving the ball into the gap, he’d work the count and emotionlessly take his place on first base. Being a hard out is what makes Joe Mauer a great player, but I’m not going to lie and say that I haven’t hoped he’d unload on a pitch from time to time.

I worried the same of Votto so I grabbed Ike on the cheap, knowing that he’ll strike out 130 times this season, but he’ll also add generously to my fantasy team’s home run and RBI totals. I like a slugger like Ike as complement to Votto.

Plus, even as this post sat unfinished as a draft for a few days, Votto came out and hit a couple bombs. Of course, his early season walk pace wasn’t sustainable and it was such a small sample size.

Come to think of it, I don’t know what I was so worried about.

This week Chris and the Doctor are joined by Crackerjack’s very own Eric Pleiss.  Besides being a must follow on Twitter, Eric writes about the Minnesota Twins at Knuckleballs Blog and BaseballTwins.com. Give the podcast a listen while you are reading Eric’s stuff on Crackerjacks. Multi-task!

Click HERE to listen.

As always, they play a game of “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players based on tweets and emails from listeners. This is extrememly for for those fantasy baseball players who get caught with that either/or decision.

Players on a hot streak who are discussed: Brandon Crawford (SF), Chris Carter (HOU) and Zack Cozart (CIN). Players on a cold streak are: Ike Davis (NYM) and Jose Bautista (TOR).

The podcast lands by discussing the following Waiver Wire pitchers: Tony Cingrani (CIN), Carlos Villanueva (CHC) and Patrick Corbin (ARI).

Tons of fantasy baseball advice and analysis in under an hour.

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Contact the podcast via the contact info below. Submit your own “Who’d you rather”, submit a league dispute for resolution, or just offer feedback or suggestions.

Twitter – @cmcbrien or @TheFantasyDR

Email – cmcbrien@dmfantasybaseball.com

Facebook – Dear Mr. Fantasy Page

A MLB Closer: The Measure of a Man

Clave Jones —  April 23, 2013 — Leave a comment
Kelvin Herrera, a 102 mph high-five. Image courtesy of Minda Haas.

Kelvin Herrera, a 102 mph high-five. Image courtesy of Minda Haas.

I just traded away a closer, which is something I most likely will do at least once more this season. While I’m not entirely of the “never pay for saves” crowd (you have to pay something for saves), I do treat saves as a fungible commodity. My working mindset is that there’s a good shot I can find the next 9th inning guy, making my current closers perfect trade chips if I need to upgrade elsewhere. So I spin a closer off, only to then find another.

There’s my lede, written to give a nugget of fantasy baseball advice, before I shift toward looking at the qualities that make a closer. Remember, closers aren’t made in the minors. Rarely is there any type of correlation at all between the number of saves a player has in the minors and the numbers of saves he’ll get in the Majors.

Closers are rarely groomed, it’s usually a role stumbling into based upon a a skill set. So when scouting potential closers you are looking for a skill set, not experience.

Again, I’m just talking scouting the minors. Rarely will the Triple A guy with 30 saves be a dominant MLB closer, because a closer in the minors is not given the same value and it’s rarely a pitcher with upside. A closer in the minors is often the team’s 29-year-old journeyman while the young guy with more upside to his skillset is being given looks in different roles (the the starting rotation).

But often they’ll flash certain skills, make the MLB roster as a bullpen arm, show success in getting out major leagues batters, then finally get opportunities in the 9th inning when an opportunity arrises due to injuries or ineffectiveness of the incumbent.

So what’s the measure of a closure?  What’s the kind of skills you’re scouting if you want to have a deep list of possible future closer candidates?

Makeup

We’ve heard a million times from managers something to the effect of “closer experience.” They are looking for a certain amount of confidence and emotional discipline in their closer. Swagger. Machismo.

While not something that can be measured, nor it is often rational, it’s still a fact of the game. In order to get the opportunity a potential closer typically has to exhibit that he has at least a little bit of “it.” What “it” is.

Cheese

A second rule of thumb is that a potential closer candidate needs to throw the heat. A quality fastball that hits the mid-90′s certainly looks good on the resumé. If the candidate can write a killer cover letter that displays his make up, then he might just get an interview.

Obviously, every closer can’t throw 100 mph like Aroldis Chapman, not does every pitcher that throws the ball hard make a good closer. Andrew Cashner throws just as fast, but let’s look instead at Kelvin Herrera. Herrera actually had the highest average fastball velocity in 2012, but his strikeout rate wasn’t nearly as high as Aroldis Chapman’s. That’s because it’s not just speed, it’s also location and movement and a host of 100 other things. Speed alone won’t generate a swing and miss, as Herrera found out. His lack of fastball movement simply generated weak contact. But 2013 is already flashing a little more life in Herrera’s fastball, meaning that the movement coupled with the speed should pay dividends on the strikeout rate and raise his chances of a future job as closer.

Out Pitch

But it’s not always the fastball that leads to all the swings and misses. Often times it’s the secondary pitch that will serve as a closer’s out pitch, anyone who has seen Craig Kimbrel‘s filthy 87 mph curveball.

The takeaway here is that you should scout relievers whose second pitch is just as good as their first. That’s a player who is a future closer in the making, as that second pitch keeps hitters scared and leads to the quick outs needed by a closer.

 

So there is how I scout my future closers. I’m looking for a skillset that consists of a dominate fastball and equally effective second pitch, wrapped up in a player that has “it.” That’s how you measure a man with a chance to get you saves. In Part 2 later this week, I’ll share with you several guys who have made the list.

For this week’s podcast, Chris and the Doctor are joined by guest Bryan Curley from Baseball Professor. Bryan has written for Crackerjacks before and we’re big big fan of his work.

Click HERE to give the show a listen.

Each week they play a game of “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players based on tweets and emails from listeners.

Players on a hot streak to start the season are: Franklin Gutierrez (SEA), Brandon Moss (OAK) and Evan Gattis (ATL), a player I grabbed off waivers and have already flipped. Players on a cold streak to start the year are: Roy Halladay (PHI), David Price (TB) and R.A. Dickey (TOR). It’s been a tough start of the season for elite pitchers.

The guys pass “Fantasy Judgment” on an issue in a listener’s fantasy league. Contact Chris if your league is full of drama and you need a judge to make a ruling.

Waiver Wire pitchers are: Ervin Santana (KC), J.A. Happ (TOR) and Jeremy Guthrie (KC).

They guys also respond to emails and read a review from iTunes.

Arcia will get 3 days to hit. Photo courtesy of Priddy.

Arcia will get 3 days to hit. Photo courtesy of Priddy.

A regular feature on Crackerjacks is our Call Up Report where we look at a rookie and his fantasy baseball impact. The practical fantasy impact of most of these rookies is slim to none, considering that they are just getting their feet wet in the Majors and aren’t close to their full potential.

So our Call Up Report of one half scouting with the other half being like speed dating to get to know the players that will be on your fantasy team of the future. Well, slim impact certainly fits in this instance because the Minnesota Twins went and did something odd today:

 

The 21-year-old Oswaldo Arcia getting his first Major League action is odd because it’s clear it will be for just a couple days until Wilkin Ramirez is back from paternity leave. It’s not odd in any sense that Arcia feels rushed. His bat is absolutely Major League ready (more so than Aaron Hicks).

But he’ll get a quick taste of The Show, then drop back to Triple A for a little more seasoning, only to compete for a starting corner outfield gig next season (unless the Twins flip Josh Willingham at this season’s trade deadline, freeing up a spot for Arcia this year).

So let’s look at his game. Signed out of Venezuela, Arcia has hit at every step. Although he Ks a little too often and doesn’t walk often enough, he’s flat-out hit at every level, nearly winning the Triple Crown in the Appy League. Call Up Report

There is power in his bat, although he is a lefty and his power will be sapped somewhat by Target Field. The good news is that he sprays the ball to all fields and is great at finding a gap to hit the ball into. He’ll be good for 20+ homers in his prime, plus his strong contact ability could have him as a .300+ hitter as well.

Long term he’s not a cleanup hitter, but he could possibly hit out of the 3 spot, or certainly #5 or 6. Any of these would play nicely for his RBI and Run totals. His speed is average only but it will stretch to some doubles, plus add a handful of steals for fantasy purposes.

A fair comp could be former Twin Jason Kubel, Cody Ross or Nick Swisher, although Arcia’s bat control should see him hit for a higher average than all those guys.

While I like this move for the Twins (Mix it up you old fogies!), it does nothing for your fantasy baseball team right now. By the time you’d get him in your roster, he’ll be heading back to Triple A. But keep an eye on him, two if you can spare them. He’s long gone in our Dynasty League, but you might be able to stash him in yours if the other owners were napping.

Click HERE to listen to this week’s episode of the Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

Chris and The Fantasy Doctor by Graham Womack from Baseball Past and Present.

As usual, they play “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players based on tweets and emails from listeners.

Next they move to hot and cold players, where they discuss: John Buck (NYM), Gerardo Parra (ARI) and Mark Reynolds (CLE), Adam Lind (TOR) and B.J. Upton (ATL).

Waiver Wire pitchers are: Jose Valverde (DET), Travis Wood (CHC) and Eric Stults (SD).

They guys also respond to emails and read a review from iTunes.  Remember to contact Chris if your league is having an issue or disagreement. They could make a “Fantasy Judgement” and settle the score once and for all.

As a look ahead, Crackerjack’s very own Eric Pleiss is coming on the show April 22nd. In addition to that, they’ll be welcoming the one and only Steve Gardner (USA Today Editor) on May 20th. The podcast will have their first female guest in Gina Muscato joining them on May 13th. Perhaps best of all, Paul Sporer (from the “Towers of Power” podcast with Jason Collette… and recent guest on the Fantasy Focus with Nate Ravitz & Matthew Berry) is coming on the show June 17th. Lots of great fantasy baseball ahead for the podcast.

It was a bad day for aces.

Clave Jones —  April 8, 2013 — Leave a comment
Don't panic if your ace implodes. Photo courtesy of Eric Van Dyke.

Don’t panic if your ace implodes. Photo courtesy of Eric Van Dyke.

Many fantasy owners started Dickey, Strasburg, and Hamels yesterday. These were guys who were counted on to anchor their pitching staff, so needless to say, things didn’t go as hoped. Here are the lines for these guys, plus a few others:

IP K W ERA Whip
Cole Hamels Phi 5.2 2 0 12.71 2.29
R.A. Dickey Tor 4.2 5 0 13.50 2.57
Matt Cain SF 3.2 2 0 22.09 2.45
Yovani Gallardo Mil 6.0 3 0 6.00 1.83
James Shields KC 6.0 8 1 6.00 1.67
David Price TB 5.0 3 0 14.40 2.60
Stephen Strasburg Was 5.1 5 0 10.13 2.44

The aces weren’t aces.

Shields was probably the one taken the latest in most drafts and he was the only one with a win or any significant Ks. But he still pitched a stinker that would kill your ratios. The rest were miserable and Cain didn’t even last 4 innings.

Sure, there were aces like CC Sabathia and Adam Wainwright who pitched gems yesterday, but where I’m going with this is that it’s early season and a rough outing or slow start will get the emotions going among your more impetuous league mates.

Here are a few tips if your fantasy team got shelled yesterday:

Don’t panic.

Seriously, don’t panic. Roto is a marathon, not a sprint. No one likes to see shellacking or golden sombrero at any time during the season, but it’s going to happen. Just like great hitters will ultimately put up great numbers, great pitchers will ultimately put up great stat lines. But they will toss a stinker or two. Don’t let the fact that it’s early in the season cause any sort of over-reaction.

Be patient because the aces that got knocked around yesterday are likely to string together gems in their next 3-4 starts and be right back on track, as will your fantasy team.

Take advantage of other’s panic.

Some of your league mates won’t take the above advice and they’ll panic. They will be convinced that one bad start is an omen of a bad season to come and they’ll give up on a guy too soon. I’m hesitant to tell you to take advantage of another man’s poor choices, but you need to absolutely take advantage of another man’s poor choices.

If they panic and drop a player then burn your waiver claim or blow your FAAB (well, that’s an odd phrase). If they offer you a trade where they are selling seriously low on a guy after one bad start, then accept it immediately and say “Thanks sucker!”  Actually, do accept the trade, but don’t call them a sucker. You don’t want to burn that bridge. Call them a sucker behind their back.

Ride a hot streak.

Some players are getting off to slow starts (pun intended). Meanwhile, pitchers like Jose Fernandez  pitched a gem, despite being young and over his head. If you have roster flexibility, get a few solid innings out of the fast starters. They are out there. Look for a waiver wire surprise and even if you only use him for a start or two or might be able to flip him for an asset later. I can remember picking up Sam Fuld last year, playing him for 2 games, then trading him away for a struggling pitcher who ended up putting together the great season I knew he would.

Don’t do this at the expense your guys who are struggling. Remember, be patient and don’t drop them for a player who just happens to be hot. But do consult Dixon’s Picks if you have a little roster flexibility. He’ll provide you with some solid options.

Play day-to-day.

If you love the day-to-day nature, try daily baseball. If you find you are the kind of guy that really likes chasing those day to day breakouts, then go with it. Maybe you’re naturally a sprinter and not a marathon runner. Then roto might not be for you, so give daily baseball a try.

I’m sure you’ve seen several advertised. I play StarStreet because I like that you can do a Pick Five as well as several Daily options, such as head-to-head or buy-ins. I’m a roto guy all the way, but I do like that instant gratification of daily fantasy baseball. Give Starstreet a try.

 

I realize it’s tough early in the season to see your top round pick or guy you spent a lot of auction money just totally implode. But dont panic. In fact, take advantage of those who do panic.