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The Numbers You Need to Win Your League

Clave Jones —  March 20, 2013 — 2 Comments
Alex Rios gives balanced roto production. Photo by Keith Allison.

Alex Rios gives balanced roto production. Photo by Keith Allison.

The first thing you do when preparing for your fantasy baseball draft is to find your baseline numbers. Seriously it’s the first thing you need to do. I’ve written about it before, but it bears repeating: you must determine a baseline goal before you draft. These are the stat totals you need to win your fantasy baseball league. Knowing these allow you to draft a balanced team that gives you a shot to finish in the money. After that, it’s all in season management my friends.

I’ve gone back and forth in my decision to even share these numbers, because the only truly accurate numbers are those that you calculate yourself based upon the actual settings of your own league. Disclaimer aside, I decided that we’ll get in the ballpark for the fantasy baseball drafter on the go, and after using these set numbers once you may begin to understand their significance and calculate your own next season. Disclaimer disclaimed, here are the parameters:

  1. These are based upon 5 years of back data in my own leagues and standardized for a 12-team league. (10 team leagues are too small. Here’s how to understand Player Pool Penetration.)
  2. These are based upon 5 outfielders and one Utility player, splitting the difference between lean leagues playing just 10 positions and those with CI and MI slots. If your league rosters run larger or smaller then add an average player. It won’t be exact, but you’ll be surprised at how close it comes in each category.
  3. Average is 6.5 points in a 12 team league. Remember, last place gets 1 point, not zero.

So here’s what it takes to win a 12 team 5×5 roto fantasy baseball league:

Runs HR RBI SB AVG K W SV ERA WHIP
Average Team 870 229 953 165 0.264 1204 89 102 3.40 1.24
Average Player 71 19 79 14 0.264 131 10 11 3.40 1.24
1st Place Team 1040 281 1103 192 0.285 1380 99 140 3.19 1.16
1st Place Avg. Player 81 24 84 17 0.285 144 11 16 3.19 1.16
3rd Place Team 990 275 1037 179 0.279 1356 94 133 3.29 1.22
3rd Place Avg. Player 77 22 81 15 0.279 139 11 15 3.29 1.22

Several takeaways from the above table:

  1. Team average and player average for batting average, ERA and WHIP are identical because a player needs to average the average to get that number. Obvious, I know, but worth pointing out. 
  2. Some categories like home runs and saves can tend to be more competitive and the 1st – 3rd teams can cluster near the top. Notice trends like this in your own leagues.
  3. To get 6.5 roto points your team needs 870 runs with each player chipping in 71 on average. To win that category and get the full 12 roto points you need 1040 runs. Hopefully that explains the table.
  4. You aren’t going to find 10 exact “average” players. You’ll draft some guys for high home run totals, some for high steal totals, and yes, some for their balance. While the player average give you a picture of what your target average players will be for those point totals, the figures you need to focus on are the team totals.

Set your draft targets for at least 3rd place. Again, you should really do this for your own league settings (Here’s a How To), but if you’re looking for the easy road, here’s some solid draft targets, noticing that I eeked most numbers up a titch to provide a cushion:

Runs HR RBI SB AVG K W SV ERA WHIP
1000 280 1050 180 0.280 1300 95 130 3.28 1.20

Alright, now go dominate your draft!

 

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Fantasy Baseball Call Up Report: Aaron Hicks

Clave Jones —  March 19, 2013 — Leave a comment
What can we expect out of Aaron Hicks in 2013?

What can we expect out of Aaron Hicks in 2013?

We have a regular column called the “Call Up Report” where we take a good look at a rookie about to get his shot in The Show. Usually these are clustered around June, but it’s looking likely that Aaron Hicks will be the starting center fielder for the Minnesota Twins when they head north.

The odds of the Twins sending a decent pitching staff out to the hill is 5,123,801 to 1, so we’re going to have to cheer real loud, you guys. Let’s turn those cheers toward Aaron Hicks, in part because I have his Topps Heritage Rookie card. It’s sweet like Hicks’ game.

Hicks a 6’2″, 185 lb, switch-hitter was a 1st round pick in 2008, a fact I learned from the back of my rookie card.

He’s an incredible athlete, dripping with raw talent. He’ll steal plenty of bases, but mainly because he’s wicked fast, something that he commonly turns into extra bases. He hasn’t learned to take good jumps or be efficient on the base paths, but that’s something he he’ll learn in time or over a bowl of cereal with Coco Crisp.
Call Up Report
His plate discipline is incredibly polished, but has bordered on passive at times. While the high on-base percentage is always welcome, he has also learned that in addition to taking the walk he can also spot a pitch to drive. And drive pitches he’s done this Spring, knocking in 3 home runs in a split-squad game. That, dear readers, is how you win a position battle.

What should we expect in 2013?

First, it should not be assumed that he doesn’t doesn’t start the season in the minors. The Twins are notoriously slow promoting and there are financial reasons to wait until June to give him the call. But while Darin Mastroianni is making him work for it, it pretty destroys this post to talk about Hicks being sent to the minors. So, our first assumption is that he begins 2013 as the starting CF for the Twins.

  1. First, expect a walk rate above 10%, even considering he’ll be facing tougher pitching. Hicks has a mature approach at the plate and it involves getting on base. From there he’ll maybe swipe a bag, then score a run.
  2. Second, expect his strikeout rate to hit 25%, then level off to around 20%. Striking out in a quarter of his at bats might be a consequence of an adjustment to MLB pitching, but expect it to quickly level off around 20%, his minor league rate.
  3. Don’t expect 30 steals. While fast, he’s not necessarily experienced with his jumps. 32 steals his his Double-A number, but I don’t think he cranks 20 his first MLB season.
  4. Do expect double digit power. While Hicks as been passive in the past, he’s learning to turn the ball back with authority now. Couple that with a frame that is adding muscle and he’ll crack 10 home runs.

I like the upside on Hicks to be 18-22 home runs in his prime, coupled with 25 steals. Given that he should hit at least .285 with a stellar walk rate puts him as a great future leadoff or #2 hitter, meaning lots and lots of runs. All this could lead to Hicks patrolling Target Field friendly CF confines for the next 6-7 years.

But his prime will not be 2013. Temper your expectations this fantasy season and don’t overpay for a lot of ifs. Here’s what I project for 2013:

AB Runs HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Aaron Hicks 502 70 11 46 18 .269 .342 .376

 

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How To Assemble a $40 Rotation

Clave Jones —  March 19, 2013 — 2 Comments
I bet you didn't realize Jason Grilli was the key to your fantasy success. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

I bet you didn’t realize Jason Grilli was the key to your fantasy success.
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

I don’t like leagues that use Quality Starts as a category, which is a purely selfish reason, being that I’ve won 5 fantasy baseball leagues while barely rostering any starting pitchers. The strategy is called Maximizing Relief Innings (MRI) and I’ll explain step-by-step how to use it this season. It’s unconventional, so if you’re a touch hesitant, I’d suggest you give it a spin in your second or third league where you have more freedom to experiment.

Utilizing cheap middle relievers allows you to drive down ERA and WHIP, while saving draft resources for hitters.

I’ve encouraged fantasy baseball players to use the MRI strategy several times now. I’ve used the $3 Kershaw Method so often that I should name a fantasy team the 3 Dollar Kershaw. But I want to give it one more go because I truly think this can give you the edge you need to win consistently. I give you the “$40 Rotation“, which oddly consist of just 3 starting pitchers as you’ll soon see. (Granted, “$40 Rotation” is a really poor name for a fantasy baseball strategy, but good names are hard to come by, you know?)

Here’s a step-by-step:

  1. Understand that you are trying to line up approximately 1200 innings for a typical fantasy baseball team. Most leagues have some sort of an innings cap anyway, but 1200 innings is typically the sweet spot you are aiming for (Trivia: An average MLB team needs to throw about 1450 innings per season).
  2. Draft 3 starting pitchers and pay only about $25 for them total. You are hoping for about 180 innings each from these 3 guys, giving you 560 innings so far. These three starting pitchers will break into 2 types, but you are looking for the same qualities. You want insanely high K/9 guys, you want them to be command pitchers (meaning they don’t walk many guys), and you don’t want them to give up more than a home run a game (look for high GB%).
    • Spend $15-20 on an “Ace.” Obviously, $20 bucks won’t get you Justin Verlander but you aren’t looking to pay big money for pitchers. You are looking to get a good deal on a guy that meets the above criteria. (Think Madison Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, Chris Sale, Kris Medlen or Jordan Zimmermann, taking the one you can get at your $15-20 price.)
    • Spend $2-3 each on two more starters. These are guys that fit into the old LIMA mold. To keep this post under book length I’ll let you read more about LIMA here. (Lance Lynn, Matt Harvey, Marco Estrada, or Shelby Miller might be a fit.) It takes constitutional fortitude to be this patient in waiting on pitching, but choke back the urge to splurge. Be confident that you’ve researched high-K, low walk guys.
  3. Draft 2-3 closers. You’re only going to pay $12-13 bucks for these guys and you’ll want approximately 50 innings each from them. 3 x 50 = 150 + 560 = 710 innings thus far.
    • Spend $10 of your closer budget on one solid guy. Make sure he’s high K and generally healthy. (Sergio Romo or J.J. Putz are good here if you’re willing to gamble in the injury risk column.)
    • Spend $2-3 and take a flyer on a high upside closer. Get him late in the draft and look for potential. (Jason Grilli, Glen Perkins, Ernesto Frieri, and Greg Holland will work.)
    • You won’t pay a dime for your 3rd closer. There are always saves on the waiver wire during the season. Jump on a guy early and you have a source of saves for free.
  4. Notice you’ve only spent about $37 on pitching and that’s all you’ll spend. The bulk of your remaining innings will come from middle relievers.
    Over the course of the season you’ll want to grab about 4 middle relievers and count on them for about 50 innings each. These extra 200 innings take you to 710.The beauty of middle relievers is that they are free, over abundant, and they have insanely low ERAs and WHIPs. You’ll win the league in those categories (I’ve finished leagues with a sub-3 ERA, which can’t be touched). They’ll also grab you an occasional vulture WIN, but you’ll trail in this category most likely. Keep your middle relievers in a pitching slot and only remove them if you have to replace them with one of your starters, and only replace them on the day that your starter is starting. This is how you maximize your innings. (Last year I used guys like Vinnie Pestano and Edward Mujica in this role.) Read the $3 Kershaw if you don’t trust me on the numbers.
  5. Finish off your innings with spot starters by streaming in pitchers under ideal circumstances. These pitchers are also from the waiver wire and free. If you stream well you are collecting WINS and racking up Ks.Best of all, by spending less than $40 on pitching you have a mint to spend on hitters.
I can say that you can absolutely win your fantasy baseball league with this strategy. Not only will have a pitching staff that will get you maximum roto points for ERA and WHIP, but you’ll do very well in the other pitching categories. But the biggest benefit is how cheaply you can put together this fantasy baseball pitching staff, meaning you have money to burn on hitters and will dominate that side of the roto equation as well.
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Stressed over your First Round pick? You can relax.

Clave Jones —  March 18, 2013 — 2 Comments
Matt Kemp was a trendy #1 overall selection last year, but it was actually Mike Trout who returned fantasy best value. Photo courtesy of Sam Galvez.

Matt Kemp was a trendy #1 overall selection last year, but it was actually Mike Trout who returned fantasy best value. Photo courtesy of Sam Galvez.

My grammie would always say, “If I’ve heard that once, I’ve heard that a 100 times.” And you’re going to trust the truth of something you’ve heard a hundred times, am I right?

Well, I’ve heard a hundred times that fantasy baseball leagues are won or lost in the first round. But that’s nonsense.

Don’t get me wrong, you don’t want to intentionally tank your first round pick by drafting Yunel Escobar, but there isn’t reason to lose sleep over the pick either. I drafted Troy Tulowitzski in the first round last year and went on to win my very competitive league. You grab a quick substitute that helps you in a category that’s close, you maybe make a quick trade, you speculate on who may be on the upswing, you move a guy or two around, and – voila! – you’re back in the saddle. I’m not saying it’s fun to piece together a position when you lose someone that you’re expecting to be such a big cog, but it’s a fact of fantasy baseball that it can be done.

And you may need to do it more than you realize. Take this sample 1st Round from 2012:

Overall Pick Player
1 Albert Pujols, LAA, 1B
2 Miguel Cabrera, Det, 1B
3 Matt Kemp, LAD, OF
4 Jose Bautista, Tor, 3B, OF
5 Troy Tulowitzki, Col, SS
6 Ryan Braun, Mil, OF
7 Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos, OF
8 Justin Upton, Ari, OF
9 Robinson Cano, NYY, 2B
10 Joey Votto, Cin, 1B
11 Adrian Gonzalez, Bos, 1B
12 Ian Kinsler, Tex, 2B

Some might pick nits on a player here and there, but considering this was a real National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft, we can all agree that’s it’s pretty a pretty fair representation.

And if you look closely you’ll see that only Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, and Robinson Cano returned true first round value, a whopping 25% success rate. A shocking number placed into context of all the fantasy baseball writing that tells you the sole function of your first round pick is to minimize risk. Do fantasy baseball drafters simply love risky picks or are we simply in a risky business?

Taking this further, 7 years of research has shown that we get our first round selections correct roughly only 40% of the time, which isn’t surprising because between 44% and 51% of MLB players lose time due to injuries, suspensions, demotions, etc. over the course of a season. It’s a tough business folks.

A few other fun tidbits the research has shown:

  • Over the last decade or so, two thirds of Top 15 players weren’t in the Top 15 the next year. 
  • As stated above, there is a great deal of turnover in the first round, year-over-year.
  • First time first rounders only repeat 15% of the time.
  • Even established superstars are not guaranteed to repeat.

Wow, that’s all very depressing and started by saying you could relax over your first round pick!

Just do your homework, make a reasoned choice, but know that there are no guarantees. Nash gave a good primer on this year’s first round and it won’t be free of risk either. Give it a read and peek at our Draft Kit where share a little risk assessment tool.

But relax. A $40 player can slam into a wall like a $4 player, but is ten times harder to replace. But replace him you can. I wrote this to let you know that – YES – your first rounder is important, but don’t let it tie you in knots. Things don’t always pan out the way you’d hope, but that won’t mean your season is lost.

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Simple Sabermetrics: OBP and SLG

Clave Jones —  March 15, 2013 — Leave a comment
Country Breakfast will spend a lot of time on base the this year.

Country Breakfast will spend a lot of time on base the this year.

Sometimes it’s OK to talk about the basics. I’m playing in a league this year with the a few of the writers from ESPN and in lieu of home runs and batting average as scoring categories, both on base percentage and slugging percentage are used. Let’s use this as an opportunity to talk about both on base (OBP) and slugging (SLG) percentages, and how understanding these two statistics can help you build better fantasy baseball teams.

OBP

OBP has been an official MLB statistic since 1984, so it’s odd to talk about it in context of sabermetrics, but again, we’re keeping things simple and you’d be surprised at how many people haven’t really thought about how it’s calculated or why it’s useful to understand. (I promise in the future we’ll graduate up to wOBP, a great statistic focus on linear weights).

On-base percentage is calculated using this formula:

OBP = H + BB + HBP  /  AB + BB + HBP + SF

  • H = Hits
  • BB = Bases on Balls (Walks)
  • HBP = times Hit By a Pitch
  • AB = At bats
  • SF = Sacrifice Flies

This is how often a player gets on base, not counting errors, a fielder’s choice, or anything like that. A team only gets 27 outs in a game, so needless to say, getting on base is vitally important, and the reason that this may be used in your league as a scoring category.

I’m a fan of back of the napkin math, so don’t hesitate to assign a simple constant for sacrifice flies or the number of times a player is hit by a pitch. Sure it’s not exact, but it’s gets you in the ballpark so to speak, and allows you to quickly scan walks to get an idea of the leagues best performers.

The league average has fluctuated over the years. It’s gone from a dead ball .300 to around .340 in our modern area. (The Simple SabermetricsSplendid Splinter Ted Williams is the all time career leader at .482, meaning for his career he made an out barely half the time, while the single season best was Barry Bonds‘ 2004 season, which ended with him having a .610 OBP. Let that sink in.)

So guys adept at getting on base will come in above .340, while your no walk knuckleheads will often time be below .300 even.  Set your fantasy baseline at the .340 league average, knowing that drafting guys above that gives your best chance to compete in the category.

Joey Votto will lead the Majors in 2013 at or around a .420 and it really won’t be close, but Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer and Buster Posey will give you a strong showing. Billy Butler, A.J. Ellis, Shin-Soo Choo, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Santana, Miguel Montero, and Alex Gordon are some lesser names that will also give you a strong showing in the category.

SLG

Slugging is a measure of hitting the crap out of the ball. Slap bunting singles hitters need not apply. It’s calculated by:

SLG = (1 x 1B) + (2 x 2B) + (3 x 3B) + (4 x HR) / AB

Walks are excluded and you can see that a player is rewarded for their total bases. In fact, it can be simplified to TB (total bases) / AB.

Babe Ruth retired with a .6898 slugging percentage. Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig followed with a .6338 and .6324, respectively. The highest active career SLG is Albert Pujols at .6079, which barely nudges Barry Bonds‘ career .6069.

Miguel Cabrera is likely to lead the Majors in 2013, but Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, and Josh Hamilton will be near the top of the leader board. Sneaky good with be Mike Napoli, Ike Davis, Josh Willingham, and Allen Craig. Again, these aren’t singles hitters. They hit the ball over the fences or drive it into the gaps, meaning there is a strong correlation with RBI as well.

On day we’ll talk about ISO, which pulls singles out of the equation and is a even better measure of a player’s true power, but I hope this basis primer was helpful for those who may play in a SLG league.

 

Here are other some other posts in the Simple Sabermetrics series: Command Ratio, FIP

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Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast: March 12, 2013

Clave Jones —  March 12, 2013 — Leave a comment

The Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast has worked its way around the infield (The other episodes are here: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B) and have moved to shagging flies in the outfield. Chris and the Doctor are joined by Mike Gianella from Baseball Prospectus as they preview fantasy baseball outfielders for 2013.

A regular feature is “Who’d You Rather?” where they pick between players for listeners based on tweets, emails and Facebook posts. In this week’s episode they choose between two outfielders and suggest who might be the best fantasy option in 2013.

2013 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Sleepers include Starling Marte (PIT), Norichika Aoki (MIL) and Adam Eaton (ARI).

Fantasy baseball rookie outfielders for 2013 include Wil Myers (TB), Oscar Taveras (STL) and my favorite, Billy Hamilton (CIN).

A good outfield discussion is had by all and the guys close by reading tweets and email feedback from listeners.

Listen to the outfield episode HERE or subscribe in iTunes.

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Who’d you rather? Chris Sale or Kris Medlen?

Clave Jones —  March 10, 2013 — 3 Comments

Kris Medlen can anchor your pitching staff, but is Chris Sale a better option?

Who’d you rather target for your pitching staff, Chris Sale or Kris Medlen? We’ll profile both players, comparing and contrasting, then determine which is the better bet for your fantasy baseball pitching staff.

Kris Medlen

First, let’s get to know him. He’s a barely 5’10″ righty who played shortstop in college and was drafted as a reliever in 2006′s 10th round. His wife’s name is Nicole and his drink of choice is Coors Light.

Returning from TJ surgery the Atlanta Braves started him in the bullpen in order to ease him into action. He got his first start on July 31 and ended that second half with a 0.94 ERA, 0.82 Whip, 9 Wins, and 95 Ks to only 14 walks. That half of pitching has been matched only by the likes of Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Bob Gibson. Had that been stretched over a full season, they would have been forced to rename the Cy Young award after him. It can not be overstated how unhittable he was in 2012.

Can he stretch it over a full season in 2013?

Medlen throws four pitches. First, a two-seam or four-seam fastball in the 89–92 mph range. Second, a curveball used against righties that sits between 77–80.  An insanely good changeup (80–83), which is used primarily against left-handers (Hitters hit just .098 vs. this pitch and, in fact, whiff against it an astounding 44% of the time). Lastly, Medlen will throw a handful of sliders just to keep hitters guessing.

It’s this type of pitch mix mixed with impeccable control that allows him to be so dominate despite his being a diminutive righty, and it’s also what will keep him effective in 2013 and beyond.

But will he be more effective than Chris Sale?

Chris Sale

Sale is a 6’6″ hard-throwing lefty, the rock to Medlen’s roll. In 2012 he led the NCAA in strikeouts. He also jumped from relief to the rotation, but he was stretched out early and got a full slate of innings in 2012, which ended with a 9.0 K/9, 3.05 ERA, and 1.13 Whip.

Sale also throws four pitches. A fastball that can clock in at 95 mph and a second two-seam fastball at about 90. Third, a 81-85 mph changeup to righties and finally a wicked slider that serves as his out pitch.

Sale will give you plenty of K’s, which are great for fantasy. He also doesn’t walk a ton and keeps the home runs allowed to a minimum, all the things you are looking for in a successful pitcher. He’ll be a stud for years and the White Sox agree, signing him to an extension.

Who’d you rather?

Medlen has been a poster child for what coming back successfully from Tommy John surgery can look like. There are no injury concerns with him. Additionally, his pinpoint control coupled with his ability to change speeds bring comparisons to Greg Maddux. No one places those types of lofty expectations upon him, but for him to be in the same ballpark of that skill-set makes him a fantastic fantasy baseball option.

Sale has been a poster child for what a successful shift to the rotation can look like. He has all the skills you are looking for in a successful pitcher, plus he misses bats, which makes him a fantastic fantasy baseball option as well.

I’m calling this a wash.

We have Medlen as our #16 starting pitcher off the board and Sale as the #18 in our Draft Kit. It really comes down to value with these two, meaning which of the two you can get at a bargain on draft day. If either one slides even a spot or two, don’t hesitate to draft him.

Our 2013 fantasy baseball projections:

Age IP K BB W ERA Whip K/9 K/BB
Kris Medlen $17 Atl 27 180 157 39 14 2.95 1.09 7.9 4.0
Chris Sale $17 CWS 24 198 202 53 16 2.91 1.13 9.2 3.8
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Aroldis Chapman Likes it Fast!

Clave Jones —  March 7, 2013 — 2 Comments
Will Aroldis Chapman be a starter or reliever in 2013?

Will Aroldis Chapman be a starter or reliever in 2013?

When Aroldis Chapman got his 6th speeding ticket for going 93 mph, it was after his Kentucky driver’s license had already been taken away. The judge let it slide I’m assuming because he realized that 93 miles per hour is simply a changeup for Chapman.

It’s his fastball that’s really fast. I was watching him pitch on TV and I personally clocked it at 123 mph. Don’t bother fact checking that. Just believe me. The speed you can fact check is 105.1 mph, which was the fastest pitch ever recorded by Major League Baseball and thrown by Chapman in 2010. While he commonly bumps up over 100, his four seamer sits at 98, and has a 33% whiff rate, which is just ridiculous.

While I joked about a changeup for Chapman, he really doesn’t have one. His second pitch is a wicked slider that comes in between 87 and 90 mph. Again, Chapman likes it fast.

But in order to transition from relief to a starter his fastball has been slowed down to 93 mph in order to stretch him out and to increase his control. With just two pitches – both now clocked between 87-93 – there isn’t much of a speed discrepancy to disrupt hitters’ timing. Conventional wisdom says the development of a third pitch (typically a changeup) is the key to Chapman’s success in the rotation. While Nolan Ryan survived with two pitches – a fastball and a curve – but it’s certainly the exception not to have a 3 pitch repertoire.

In a handful of innings this spring Chapman has thrown a couple changeups and one splitter, mixed into his usual fastballs and sliders. He already has great movement on those pitches and a splitter would drop heavy and late, which would give him a possible 3rd pitch and movement along another plane, which would allow him to just eliminate the changeup idea all together.

Why did I talk so much about the speed and movement of Chapman’s pitches? Because it’s key to his success in moving from a reliever to a starter, which has serious repercussions on his fantasy baseball value.

From the beginning I have been strongly against his move into the rotation. The Reds don’t need him there and he’s ridiculously good in the closer role. Don’t fix something that isn’t broken, and all that. And while I still think his move to the rotation is a bad idea, I have warmed to the idea that he might have success there, for a couple reasons:

  1. After really researching the data above I’m more confident he’ll find that third pitch. Remember, his fastball and slider are so wicked good, he just needs to have an adequate third pitch that will keep hitters in their toes.
  2. I think that’s he’s growing up as a person and putting seem off-the-field issues behind him. A Cuban defector, he has struggled to find a community that he can trust and can surround himself with, but things are better on this front. Sometimes we forget that these players are real humans and that clear headspace correlates with on-the-field success.

Last year I compared Chris Sale to C.J. Wilson (and his transition to the rotation) and predicted that Sale would be aces in the rotation. While I got that one right, there are just as many cases where being stretched out doesn’t yield favorable results. So it’s something to watch this spring.

I’m becoming more and more optimistic and will draft Chapman if he’s not being overvalued (I’d take him around the 100th player off the board). His downside is that he won’t pitch more than 140 innings or so even if stretched out, but the upside will be that he will still give you 150+ strikeouts in those 140 innings.

IP K W ERA Whip
Aroldis Chapman 136 152 9 3.24 1.26

If you can get him after 100 players have gone off the board you wouldn’t need to be nervous that your 2 or 3rd fantasy pitcher is limited in innings, and you could feel real good if he indeed stays as closer, because there’s no concerns about his performance there. Just don’t be too fast yourself as you draft him, thinking that his heater will translate into fantasy baseball ace his first year as a starter.

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Annual Shareholder Meeting Video

Clave Jones —  March 5, 2013 — 1 Comment

The IRS insists that we have an Annual Shareholders Meeting. Our 2013 meeting was held in San Juan, Puerto Rico. All Crackerjack readers will want to watch the video below for an update in less than 1 minute.

In Miscellany
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Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast: March 5, 2013

Clave Jones —  March 5, 2013 — Leave a comment

For this week’s podcast, Chris and the Doctor are joined by Wall St. Jesus as they preview fantasy baseball shortstops for 2013. Yes, you read that correctly: Wall St. Jesus is talking shortstops.

That’s not all, because our very own E. Rolf Pleiss gets a shout-out during the show and we’ve highlighted 6 shortstops here to start you off.

 

The show comes in under an hour and is packed with fantasy baseball analysis. They play “Who’d You Rather?” to start things off, and pick between 2 players for listeners based on tweets, emails and Facebook posts.

The Doctor provides injury updates for Starlin Castro (CHC) and Rafael Furcal (STL).

Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Shortstops 2013 include: Andrelton Simmons (ATL), Alcides Escobar (KC) and Jean Segura (MIL).

Fantasy baseball rookie shortstops for 2013 include: Jurickson Profar(TEX), Javier Baez (CHC) and Xander Bogaerts (BOS).

 

The guys pass “Fantasy Judgment” on a listener’s fantasy league problem and to close it out, the guys read tweets and email feedback from listeners.

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Click HERE to listen to this week’s show, or better yet, click through and subscribe via iTunes.

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