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Monkeying around with Fantasy Baseball Projections

Clave Jones — January 12, 2013 — Leave a comment

I’ve written before about how we do our fantasy baseball projections. Being that I’m neck-deep in projections for the 2013 fantasy baseball season, I thought I’d share a few lot more thoughts on our methodology.

At the core of our projections is the Marcel system, which was developed by Tom Tango, who in my opinion has done as much for the fantasy baseball community as anyone, including BIll James or Daniel Okrent. Marcels is shorthand for “Marcels the Monkey“, a nod that it’s a fantasy baseball projection method that is so simple a monkey could do it.

There are a dozen or more baseball projection systems out there, many offered for free, many behind a paywall, and one (PECOTA) made famous because Nate Silver, the genius behind it, took his skills to the presidential election. Marcels has stood strong against them all, yet it is far simpler than it’s more complicated and proprietary prognosticating peers.

Crackerjacks uses a modified version of Marcels and I’m going to walk you through a step-by-step of how we do it. The steps are weighting, regression, and aging. We add a 4th, which is conditions.

Weighting

Some systems use comparables as their foundation, but most use multiple years of back data whenever possible. Marcels adds weights to the data, which makes sense because it allows you to place more emphasis on the player’s most recent season, yet still take account for possible random variation.

For example, let’s consider a player who has a home run per plate appearance of .037 in his most recent season, .047 the year before, and .053 the year before that. Simply averaging these gives us a .046.

But in order to look toward the years ahead it’s becomes more accurate to place more weight on the most recent season and Marcels does that. The weights are 5/4/3, with 5 going to the most recent season.

You multiply the component figure by the weights, add them, then divide the total by the weight total. Continuing our example, the weighted sum would be (.037*5) + (.047*4) + (.053*3) = .532. The sum of the weights is 5+4+3 = 12, making our weighted average .532/12 = .044.

Multiply this figure with your projected number of plate appearances and there is your number for home runs hit. .044 X 575 PA = 25.3 HRs.

Our example was Carlos Gonzalez. You might remember that Cargo had a breakout in 2010 and hit 34 homers, but had just 22 last season. We’ve given each season a weight so you might assume that we’re saying Cargo will hit 25.3 home runs next season, but not so fast. We still have 3 more steps. Continue Reading…

In Projections CarGo, Carlos Gonzalez, home runs, Marcels, projections

Friday Five: A little bit of everything.

Clave Jones — January 11, 2013 — Leave a comment

Does Homer Bailey have any upside? Photo by Keith Allison.

Just a few short months ago Friday Five was a weekly feature at Crackerjacks. Each week I’d share 5 fantasy baseball links that I thought were interesting or informative.

I got busy is the only excuse I have. I can’t guarantee I’ll be able to have a Friday Five ready to go each friday, but I have one today. Do I make you happy?

The same day I wrote a player profile for Salvador Perez, I saw one from Ray Flowers. I’m quite bullish on Perez, whereas Ray doesn’t seem to like him as a fantasy catcher to target. It’s fair to share both sides of the argument, and you can make your own decision going into the 2013 draft.
It’s past time to think about league discipline, by gosh! I ran across LeagueSafe. I haven’t used it, but thought it was interesting. Do you need a 3rd party to hold your fantasy baseball league fees, then distribute payouts? That’s what LeagueSafe does. And if you have a bitter league dispute you can send it in to the Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast because starting in March they’ll be running a segment called “Fantasy Judgment”. People can send in their league disputes and the Doctor and I will weigh in with our opinions. Then, we will ‘open the envelope’ which reveals the official decision from Michael Stein at Fantasy Judgment. His ruling will be final and can be used by the league in question. Some cool stuff to keep down the drama.
Any Cubs fane out there? Obstructed View gives their thoughts on Baseball America’s top ten prospects in the Chicago Cubs organization. I didn’t see Shawon Dunston anywhere on the list.
Fangraphs just wrote about picking your fantasy baseball projection system. I’ve written about this very thing a couple times. Read them all as the different perspectives will give you greater wisdom going into the draft.
I missed this when it was first posted, but better late than never. A profile of Homer Bailey and thoughts on if he has any upside left.

There you go. The links are all over the place, but I hope they give you a good fantasy baseball distraction this Friday.

In Friday 5

Fantasy Baseball 2013: Cleveland Indians Hitting-Pitching Projections

Clave Jones — January 8, 2013 — Leave a comment

Will 2013 be decidedly mediocre for the Indians? Photo by Cleveland Progressive.

Cleveland Indians – Predicted Finish: Fourth Place, AL Central

I was flying home this week and the teenage boy sitting next to me on the plane had on some baseball gear. I saw it as an opening and asked him if he liked baseball. He preceded to go on and on about his favorite players and his favorite teams. This was a kid who hadn’t said a single word to his family in an hour.

It’s fun to talk about baseball and your favorite team. If you are an Cleveland Indians fan you have a few new players to talk about. The Indians signed a new 10-year television contract and they got $40,000,000 of it this season. It suddenly makes sense that they could sign Swisher, Myers and Reynolds. Ones still wonders, however, if those additions are enough to bring a big improvement.

Indians Offense

Player Name		Age	Bats	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG.
Michael Brantley	LF	25	L	556	79	8	46	9	.289
Jason Kipnis	2B	25	L	589	94	17	82	26	.275
Asdrubal Cabrera	SS	27	S	596	85	18	73	10	.289
Nick Swisher	RF	32	S	550	89	26	92	3	.254
Carlos Santana	DH	26	S	541	86	27	88	2	.246
Mark Reynolds	1B	29	R	504	70	29	82	4	.229
Lonnie Chisenhall	3B	24	L	479	62	15	61	2	.257
Drew Stubbs	CF	28	R	520	66	16	46	30	.234
Yan Gomes	C	25	R	180	17	8	24	1	.217

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Santana, Swisher, Kipnis, Cabrera, and Stubbs and Reynolds to a lesser extent.

Carlos Santana suffered from high expectations. Everyone clearly expected steady and remarkable growth from the young catcher, but were rewarded with a poor average and power numbers less than they were hoping for. Yet, he’ll now be valued less in drafts and he still has the keen batting eye that set the expectations so high for him. Grab him post-hype and be pleased.

I didn’t foresee Swisher going to Cleveland, but I like to move for both Swisher and the Tribe. He’ll no longer have the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium to hit in, but he’s always been dependable fantasy performer, regardless of where he’s hitting. Draft him as a 3rd outfielder and you’ll be pleased.

Folks who were looking for Cabrera to replicate his breakout were disappointed, but he’s a solid contributor at a thin position. I fully expect him to post solid – albeit not spectacular – numbers in all categories. While he won’t dominate in any category, he’s unlikely to hurt you in any, so try to sneak him after the higher priced shortstops are off the board.

Both Reynolds and Stubbs will kill you in batting average because they both have this nasty habit of striking out in a third of their at bats. Still, Stubbs has speed if he can actually get on base and Reynolds has power if he can actually get the bat on the ball. If you’ve resolved to go ahead and punt average (although I wouldn’t recommend it), then you might as well take a look at these guys.

Fantasy Baseball 2013: Minnesota Twins Hitting-Pitching Projections

Clave Jones — January 7, 2013 — Leave a comment

2013 will be another dreadful year for the Twins.

Minnesota Twins – Predicted Finish: Fifth Place, AL Central.

Let’s talk pitching. I – like everyone else who writes about Twins pitching – will be pretty harsh toward those guys. I’ll be getting my negativity out in this post because the truth hurts so much….here [points to heart]. Among the 14 teams in the American League in 2012, the Twins were last or next to last in almost every pitching category except walks issued. They were bottom of the heap in hits allowed, home runs allowed, strikeouts per 9, earned runs and wins. I could go on and on, but if you look closely, you’ll notice that each of those categories has negative consequences with your fantasy baseball team.

Now let’s talk hitting. National League pitchers hit better than the Minnesota Twins’ middle infielders in 2012 and this will continue in 2013. It’s true. No reason to even check the numbers. Just believe me.

Twins Offense

Player Name	Pos.	Age	Hand	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG.
Darin Mastroianni	CF	27	R	431	76	8	45	36	.267
Jamey Carroll	2B	39	R	368	50	0	29	5	.287
Joe Mauer	C	30	L	518	84	13	80	3	.322
Josh Willingham	LF	34	R	552	80	30	90	2	.261
Justin Morneau	1B	31	L	509	72	23	89	0	.291
Ryan Doumit	DH	31	S	444	55	17	66	0	.279
Trevor Plouffe	3B	26	R	511	69	26	68	2	.252
Chris Parmelee	RF	25	L	420	54	18	57	0	.269
Pedro Florimon	SS	26	S	247	24	2	22	7	.220

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Mauer, Willingham, Morneau

The Twins projected lineup will be thin, but that doesn’t mean that the heart of the lineup won’t yield some fantasy goodness. We’ll get to Mauer later, but let’s talk about Morneau and Willingham for a moment.

Morneau is healthy this year. I know, I know. It’s hard to put a lot of trust in him and the MVP seasons will never be there again. But let’s not forget that he is a former MVP, and players with a good eye at the plate tend to see their skills erode more slowly. A healthy Morneau can give you a couple dozen homers and actually help you in the AVG column. The secret is that you should get him for cheap in your fantasy baseball draft. Don’t be afraid to take a late flyer, hoping that a healthy Morneau can provide you with sneaky value.

It seemed like WIllingham came out of nowhere to post his 2012 numbers, but the reality is that he’s always been a pretty good player when on the field. In early mock drafts I’ve seen him fall too far. Don’t be afraid to take him as a 3rd outfielder because he possesses the the skill to hammer home another 30+ homer season. But his fantasy baseball value – like Morneau’s – will depend on how far he is falling in the draft. Snatch them both up if you feel like you can get them for a bargain, but don’t reach for either of them.

Twins Pitching:

Role	Player	Age	Hand	IP	BB	W	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
Closer	Glen Perkins	30	L	62	16	2	60	29	2.76	1.17

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: None.Seriously, I can’t believe the Twins will trot our what they’ll call a major league pitching staff and I’m not creating a table for them. This rotation has been assembled from spare parts and I don’t mean that in the movie sort of way where they bond together, realize the true potential hidden deep within, and go on to win it all in the end. I mean it in the saddest way possible.

For the sake of comprehensiveness I’ll will list their names, but it’s not worth anyone’s time to run the projections: Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Kevin Correia, Liam Hendriks, and Mike Pelfrey after he recovers from Tommy John surgery. None of those gentlemen will help your fantasy baseball team in any way, and most will actually do damage to your team if you roster them.

Glen Perkins will be solid in the closer role, but I can’t imagine more than 30 saves coming his way.

Fantasy Star: Mauer

Mauer gets more attention for want he doesn’t do, than for what he does. He’ll not hit more than a dozen home runs, it’s true. But there aren’t many guys in baseball who give you a better shot at hitting over .320. Plus, he scores a lot of runs hitting in the 3 hole, plus he’ll give you a solid RBI total. Remember the art of coupling your fantasy baseball players. Pair Mauer up with a big home run hitter, but poor average slugger, and you’ve got a balanced fantasy baseball core.

Plus, call it a hunch, but I think Mauer will have a pretty good season in 2013. Fewer games at catcher was just what the doctor ordered, so he should be healthy and ready to lead the Twins.

Fantasy Bust: None

No one is expecting much fantasy value from this team so thee isn’t much distance to fall and bust. This isn’t a team that suffers from unrealistic expectations. If anything, Twins players may come at a value in the draft as the lack of star power may leave other owners avoiding them.

Fantasy Sleepers: Plouffe

Few know that Trevor Plouffe was a former first round draft pick. While his path the the majors wasn’t straight and to the right, his contact skills have been slowly trending in the right direction. The Twins are so devoid of major league talent that he’s assured of at bats and – believe it or not – there is 30-homer power in there. If he can get off to a better start than he did in 2012, then Plouffe could be a waiver wire steal.

There you have it: the projected 2013 lineup for the Minnesota Twins. It’s going to be another year with close to 100 loses in the Twin Cities.

More American League Central Previews

In Miscellany Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, lineup projections, projected lineup, Twins

Salvador Perez and Large, Powerful Haunches

Clave Jones — January 3, 2013 — Leave a comment

Just look at that ball go. Photo by Keith Allison.

I was at Target Field, watching a game with my wife. We had fantastic seats and I could get a great look at each player as they came up to bat.

When Salvador Perez walked up to bat, I leaned over and said, “You can just tell that there is more power in those haunches.”

That’s an odd statement out of context and perhaps a strange one even within context. I regret sharing that with you, and I regret further that I leaned the wrong direction and said that not to my wife, but to the older woman sitting next to me.

OK, I made that last part up, but it would’ve been funny to see the look on a stranger’s face if you’d begin to talk to them about how strong the 6’3″, 245 pound Sal Perez looks through his seat and thighs.

haunch |hônCH, hänCH| noun a buttock and thigh considered together, in a human or animal. • the leg and loin of an animal, such as a deer, as food: haunch of caribou meat.

Perez is a not-quite-unique hitter and we need to look at his numbers (and haunches) with different eyes. We are conditioned to target batters with a keen batting eye that we have grown to frame as a high walk rate and low strikeout totals. We’d be correct in doing so but Sal Perez and a handful of other players such as Adrian Beltre, Pablo Sandoval, Yadier Molina and – lately – Carlos Gomez, who don’t fit this mold.

Perez has an aggressive approach at the plate, not defining aggressiveness like a Bryce Harper who has a strong, violent swing, but aggressive in that jumps right into the at bat. He’s not waiting for pitches, nor taking much looking. He’s swinging at the first ‘good enough’ pitch and getting it in play. These fewer pitches per at bat means he won’t draw many walks but rarely will he see three strikes either. He’s not impatient or lost at the plate, this is his approach and it works great for him. If you are trying to squeeze him into the mold of what a prototypical hitter should be, then you won’t have confidence in his continued success. He’s an interesting hitter, so you have to look at the skills he brings.

I don’t see his walk rate climbing higher than 5%, but likewise, I don’t expect him striking out at more than a 10% clip. He gets away with this approach because he has a freakish contact percentage of 92.8%, which is not quite Marco Scutaro, but can any of us hope to make Marco-level contact, especially if we have large, full haunches? The moral of the story is that when his dad told him to keep his eye on the ball as a kid, little Sal took to that with the utmost of seriousness.

This level of contact is key in that the league average for BABIP (batting average on ball in play) hovers around .290-.300, meaning that since Perez puts so many balls in play so frequently he’s going to give your fantasy baseball team a boost in AVG. Even if his batted balls for for hits at an average rate, which they won’t (his LD% was a great 24.2%), his batting average will help you.

Now let’s get back to those powerful haunches. He’s a big, strong man. He doesn’t look like he was weened on protein shakes like Giancarlo Stanton, but you do get the sense that there is potential for him to drive even more balls out of the yard. His ISO – (2B +2*3B+3*HR)/AB – rose from .142 to .170. While Bill James is projecting an ISO regression to .152, his HR/FB has increased, which suggests more power potential. I, like the lady sitting next to me at Target Field, just look his hips and predict upwards of 17 homers this season, with potentially 25 in his prime. Remember, he’s just 22 years old.

He made the majors based upon his strong defense, but that doesn’t help your fantasy team. What does help your fantasy team will be his .300 batting average, 15+ home runs, and RBI/Run totals in the mid-70s. Buster Olney likes him as well.

In Player Profiles catchers, Player Profiles, Royasl, Salvador Perez

Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tampa Bay Rays Hitting & Pitching Projections

Clave Jones — January 3, 2013 — 1 Comment

Will the Rays really go with James Loney at 1B? Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Tampa Bay Rays – Predicted Finish: Second Place, AL East

I have to admit that I’m enamored by the Rays organization. Year in and year out they compete on a limited budget and they do it in creative ways. Andrew Friedman took over the club in 2005 at the ripe ‘ole age of 28 and the Rays have found ways to win ever since.

And it’s not just Friedman. Joe Maddon took over as manager the same year, and has since been the two-time manager of the year in part for the creative way he uses his players all over the field.

The Rays are a well run organization and they develop players well. This is fortunate for you, because they have several great options for you fantasy baseball team, on both the hitting and pitching side. Let’s take a look.

Rays Offense

		Age	Bats	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Desmond Jennings	CF	26	R	581	94	16	57	33	.253
Yunel Escobar	SS	30	R	502	65	14	67	13	.261
Ben Zobrist	LF	31	S	571	96	19	85	15	.286
Evan Longoria	3B	27	R	530	88	31	99	7	.276
Matt Joyce	DH	28	L	520	66	21	78	3	.251
Wil Myers	RF	23	R	485	69	24	73	4	.280
James Loney	1B	28	L	220	23	4	29	1	.253
Ryan Roberts	2B	32	R	415	47	10	49	10	.266
Jose Molina	C	37	R	204	19	5	29	1	.249

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Longoria, Zobrist, Jennings, Myers, Escobar

Longoria will be drafted in the 1st Round in most leagues, and with good reason. Still, injuries have kept him from putting together that stratospheric season that everyone knows he’s capable of. He turns 27 this year, so maybe 2013 will be his year.

Zobrist is an on base machine and has eligility at what feels like 9 positions. While his numbers have fluctuated since his breakout, you can bet that he’ll be valuable in multiple fantasy categories.

Injuries have hampered Jennings’ development, but he’s worth a mid-to-late round look for his speed. The return on your investment could be a 15-30 season, but his swing and miss tendencies will limit his bating average upside.

Myers is worth a flyer if just for the outside shot his ungodly minors numbers translate quickly to the minors, but temper your expectations and don’t overpay. Word is that he’ll begin the season in Triple A, but he’ll quickly get a call up.

Escobar has value only because shortstop is so dreadfully thin as a position.

Rays Pitching

Role	Player	Age	Throws	IP	BB	W	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1 Starter	David Price	27	L	219	61	16	199	0	3.12	1.14
2 Starter	Jeremy Hellickson	25	R	188	65	13	144	0	3.48	1.22
3 Starter	Matt Moore	23	L	190	74	14	219	0	3.03	1.20
4 Starter	Alex Cobb	25	R	162	57	10	149	0	3.81	1.35
5 Starter	Jeff Niemann	30	R	174	47	9	136	0	4.06	1.24
Closer	Fernando Rodney	36	R	70	34	4	56	37	3.09	1.37

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: All, plus a couple names waiting in the wings.

Even with trading James Shields away, the Rays are loaded at pitching. David Price is the reigning Cy Young winner, so you know what you’d be getting there. He’s absolutely elite.

This is the year that Matt Moore puts together a full season of what he teased in the second half of 2012. He’ll strike out 10 per 9 and if his walks come down, he could take the step to elite as well.

Hellickson’s peripherals suggest his 3.00 ERA isn’t sustainable but he’s done it for two seasons now, so why not gamble on a third. Cobb is young with loads of upside and Niemann has the talent to make him worth a fantasy spot start or two. Jake Odorizzi from the KC trade is waiting in the wings, but it’s Chris Archer who throws fire and could be the first to work his way into the rotation.

So, yeah, a lot to like about the Rays’ pitching staff for your fantasy baseball team.

Fantasy Star: Longoria

Longoria and Jaime Edmondson – his playmate model girlfriend – are expecting a baby, due Spring Training ’13. I don’t know why I told you about Little Longo, but there you go. Let’s talk about his skill on the field now.

One of the gazillion things I like about Baseball Reference is the 162-game average they give you. Longo’s numbers over 162 games are 97-33-116-9-.276, numbers he shouldn’t have trouble achieving if he stays on the field. The skill is there.

So is the work ethic. It’s too early, in my opinion, to lump Longo with Tulo in the injury prone category. Draft Longo confidently as a late first round/early second round selection.

Fantasy Bust: Joyce

Matt Joyce isn’t a “bust”, per se, it’s just that the fantasy baseball world has attributed more skill to him than he actually possesses. His 19 homer, 13 steal, .277 season in 2011 is the outlier. Low 20s homers could be there with regular at bats, but the steals or average won’t be. That type of production can be found on the waiver wire.

Fantasy Sleeper: Myers

I’ve written about Wil Myers before, so I’ll point you there. He’ll join Tampa Bay shortly into the season because they just don’t have enough bats right now. He’s probably already gone in dynasty leagues, but he’ll have value in redraft leagues as well, depending upon your tolerance for young players. He’ll be a middle-of-the-order bat in a couple of years.

I certainly expect Tampa to add at least one more bat as the bottom of their lineup is weak. Rest assured, they’ll do it creatively. What you you think about the fantasy baseball potential of the Rays? Let us know in the comments.

More American League East Previews

In Miscellany David Price, evan longoria, lineup projections, Matt Moore, Rays, Tampa Bay, Wil Myers

Fantasy Baseball 2013: Baltimore Orioles Hitting-Pitching Projections

Clave Jones — January 2, 2013 — Leave a comment

Adam Jones is Baltimore’s fantasy star. Photo by Keith Allison.

Baltimore Orioles – Predicted Finish: Third Place, AL East

The 2012 Orioles made the playoffs for the first time in [Quick internet search…] …15 years! You’d have to think that they’ll be chomping at the bit for another playoff run, and you’d have to think they’ll have at least a fighting chance with Buck Showalter at the helm. Dude’s legit. We think the good luck holds and they go from being a lucky team in 2012 to a good team in 2013.

But we’re more interested in how their players will perform on our fantasy baseball teams, and the good news is that there is a lot to like, if we’re talking about their offense.

Orioles Offense

		Age	Bats	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG.
Nate McLouth	LF	31	L	433	60	13	43	13	.250
Manny Machado	3B	20	R	502	65	14	67	13	.261
Nick Markakis	RF	29	L	570	79	18	85	5	.299
Adam Jones	CF	27	R	530	88	31	99	12	.277
Matt Wieters	C	26	S	520	66	21	78	1	.267
Chris Davis	1B	27	L	545	76	28	87	4	.260
J.J. Hardy	SS	30	R	527	76	20	70	1	.262
Nolan Reimold	DH	29	R	367	47	15	51	6	.270
Brian Roberts	2B	35	S	109	21	2	13	4	.285

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Jones, Weiters, Machado, Davis, Markakis, and Hardy have fantasy baseball value.

One thing to note about this lineup though, is that you’ll have some platoon situations, plus some shuffling in who hits second. Roberts won’t stay healthy, but was one of the game’s best lead-off hitters 5 years ago and may hit there occasionally. Reimold will fight for (and lose) outfield at bats. Hardy will hit second to begin the season, but Machado has the upside and talent to stick there by season’s end.

I share this because you want to draft guys for your fantasy team that hit in the top spots of the lineup, because they get more at bats and their counting stats trend higher. Pay attention to where guys hit in the lineup.

Orioles Pitching Continue Reading…

In Miscellany Adam Jones, Balitmore, Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, Orioles, projected lineup

Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks: Looking Ahead to 2013

Clave Jones — January 1, 2013 — 2 Comments

We had a blast in our first year as a fantasy baseball website and we appreciate you reading. While we had loads of fun with it, we also feel like we learned a thing or two and have set some goals for 2013, our second full year. Bigger and better and all that. I want to share 5 of those goals with you and give you an idea of where you can come in.

We’ve committed to posting daily in 2013. We want to be able to produce timeless strategy pieces that you’ll enjoy reading no matter what the date is, plus we want to be able to give you timely fantasy baseball insight on any significant moves in baseball. We need writers to make this happen. We’ve added Mims, who has been a fantastic addition, and we’re looking for more. Click here if you are interested. If you love fantasy baseball, have talent for writing, and want to jump into the pool of fantasy baseball writers, then I encourage you to give it some thought.
We’re looking to expand our partnerships in 2013. One of my favorite lines from LOST was when Jack said, “We live together, or we die alone.” In order to be successful on the internet you need to network and make friends. We’ve loved our partnership with the Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast as it allows us to point you to a great podcast while saving our time for writing. In 2013 we’ll be looking to branch out more and form partnerships in new areas. Contact us if you have a thought on a potential partnership. We’re listening.
We’re going to experiment with a few new ideas in 2013. We have some ideas to add increased functionality to the site, perhaps spin off some companions to the website, or to offer additional resources like ebooks. The key word is experiment and while we have tons of ideas in the hopper, we aren’t ready to commit to just one yet. But rest assured that 2103 will see some new things from the Crackerjacks.
We commit to not only keeping the quality high, but to make it even better in 2013. We don’t want you to ever be reading this site and think to yourselves, “Remember when we actually enjoyed reading the stuff at Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks?” We want you to not only enjoy reading this site, but to feel like you learn new things about fantasy baseball and become a better player because of it. W’re going to step up our game and consistently look for ways to improve upon what we are already doing.

If we can achieve this goal, then we trust you’ll tell your friends about us. That’s where you come in. If you’ve enjoyed reading Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks, then please share us on social media and refer us to friends. Our final goal for 2013 is to reach 5X the unique readers per month. Note that this is 5 times the page views because we don’t want to resort to tricks just to increase our advertisers. We’re talking about expanding our regular readership base 5 times what it currently is. We’ll need help with that. So please do us a solid, well, two.

Share us often on your social networks, and we promise that we’ll share tons of great fantasy baseball content in return.
Tell us what you want from us. If there’s something that you’d like to see more of, let us know. If there’s something that you really like from us, let us know. We can look at the numbers as a barometer to tell what’s working and what’s not, but nothing beats hearing it straight from our readers.

In Miscellany Fantasy Baseball 2013

Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks: 2012 in Review

Clave Jones — December 31, 2012 — Leave a comment

This website is barely over a year old, so if we do a “year in review” we’re really picking up the story from the beginning.

Nash and I have been buddies for years, spending a lot of time working with teenagers back in the day. Nash and Dixon were friends from growing up, but Dixon and I hadn’t (and still haven’t) met face-to-face. I share this because we’d both consider one another great friends now and it’s a story of how a simple fantasy baseball website can build friendships.

We’ve certainly made many friendships in 2012. We’ve connected with other fantasy baseball writers via Twitter and Facebook, many of which have gone from professional acquaintances to legitimate friendships, if not of the face-to-face variety. I think many of you understand what I’m talking about if you spend a lot of time on Twitter.

We’ve also become acquainted with many of our readers, as several of them had a question to “Ask Nash” or shared their thoughts in the comments. Thank you, readers, and your numbers are growing by the day! Look out, 2013.

We’ve given you plenty of fantasy baseball words to read in 2012. We’re coming up on 450 posts, which met our goal [Achievement unlocked!] of posting at least once daily, even if we often take it easy on the weekends.

Many of those posts were player profiles, fantasy baseball rankings or projections, but many of them were strategy pieces, and we hope you felt like they made you a better fantasy baseball player. Remember, we’re writing for you so please know that you can give your suggestions for future topics any time.

We also released our Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit in 2012 and plan to do so again in 2013. It was downloaded over 1700 times and we’re pretty stoked about that, considering we had just barely turned the key on the site. Again, let us know what you’d like to see moving forward.

There isn’t really a “middle class” in the world baseball blogging. You have the upper class giants. Everyone knows those sites and there is no competing in that space. Then you have literally tens of thousands of sites that are updated about once a month, if that.

To build an audience in the middle class in the baseball blogging world you have to make friends. We did that with the guys from the Dear Mr. Fantasy Baseball Podcast. We’re excited to be partnering with them. It’s a great show and we’re happy to point our listeners to it. We also joined the Yardbarker Network. Yardbarker let’s you play among the giants, without feeling like you have to give up too much of who you are or else you’ll get stepped on. These partnerships have helped us jump into the middle class of baseball websites and we’re thankful for that.

Finally, we added a contributing writer in 2012. Mims has been cranking out great stuff for us and we’re glad to have him on board. It’s been a great first year for us and we’re thankful for each and every reader. We get to write about fantasy baseball, which is something that love to do. Look out, year two.

In Miscellany

Predicting the Future of Fantasy Baseball

Clave Jones — December 27, 2012 — 4 Comments

Baseball is a game of traditions, yet change is slowly coming.

Playing fantasy baseball means that you’re attempting to predict the future. We’re trying to predict a player’s future performance, are we not? Sure, we are using past performance to predict future results, but c’mon, this is time traveling, future teller stuff we’re playing with!

I say we take prediction to another level. I don’t want to just predict player performance, I want to predict where the game of fantasy baseball itself will go. I’m talking big time prognostication. We’ll do this for play styles, strategies, trends, and everything big and small in between. Here are 5 predictions for the future of fantasy baseball, in no particular order or category:

Future Shift #1: Play styles will change, BIG time. We’ll begin to see more “pick ‘em” type games and less Roto. There’s a sadistic beauty to the long grind that is rotisserie baseball, but it doesn’t capture the daily nature of baseball. Head-to-Head isn’t the answer as it merely tries to jam the oval peg of football into the round hole of baseball.

And we’ve already seen the rapid rise of daily baseball and the not-quite-gambling sites that are all the rage. I’ll buy into the rage as I’ve found the daily nature to be a lot of fun (and it doesn’t hurt that I’ve made some money off the sites). Look for this fantasy baseball trend to continue into the future and push into the mobile sphere as well. (Disclosure: I have the development of some fantasy baseball iOS games in the hopper.)

Future Shift #2: We’ll see more use of stats and more understanding of advanced stats. WHIP was created specifically for the game of fantasy baseball, yet we see it on Major League scoreboards now. Advanced statistics are seeing rapid understanding and adoption for the utility they bring. While 5×5 will continue to be the standard, advanced players are beginning to flock to points leagues like Fangraph’s Ottoneu that are based on linear weights. Is it time for your league to shift from AVG to OBP? Maybe, if you want to be ahead of the curve.

Future Shift #3: ERA and WHIP are trending lower league-wide, which will subtly influence future draft strategies. Sometimes the trends in real baseball heavily influence fantasy baseball. The long ball era is long gone and baseball is seeing more and more pitchers sport healthy ERAs by fantasy baseball standards. Why draft a pitcher early when you can now wait an extra round or two? Plus, those 1.40 WHIP baselines just won’t cut it anymore if you want to win your fantasy baseball league. This will require you to notice trends in real baseball and how you can exploit those in your fantasy baseball league.

Future Shift #4: Norms of positional scarcity will feel uncertain for the foreseeable future. Remember in 2009 when first base was absolutely dominate? Remember in 2011 when we thought third base was the most shallow position? Well, second is thinner than ever but catcher is on the rise. And on and on it goes.

How will position scarcity play in 2013? Well, it looks like the only thing that is certain is that it certainly won’t play the same in 2014. Major League tradition said corner infielders and corner outfielders had to look a certain way, but modern realities are dictating that teams are being more creative in this. The takeaway is that you can’t use last year’s data in regards to this year’s positional scarcity. Positional depth is a shifting thing and it looks like this will continue in the future.

Future Shift #5: We’ll see more rookies make a greater impact. Mike Trout shook up fantasy baseball when at age 20 he was the fantasy baseball’s MVP. Let’s not forget that Bryce Harper was no fantasy slouch at age 19. I think the future of baseball will have players peaking earlier. We’ll say that players will hit “baseball puberty” a little younger, if you want to. It used to be the age 28 season that everyone worked their strategies around, but age 26 is looking closer to the breakout norm, with many players like Andrew McCutchen or Giancarlo Stanton catching stride earlier than that.

Maybe it’s because greater skill and financial resources trickling down into high school game, in addition to better training methods. If 16-year-old kids are being surrounded with coaching and training that was previously only available to 19-year-olds, then you have to think that players could hit their peak a little earlier. Plus, I think something is in America’s water (in more ways than one).

I’m curious to know everyone’s thoughts on this. What are your predictions or the the game of fantasy baseball’s future? Or what do you think about the 5 predictions listed above? Let me know in the comments.

In Rules, Strategy Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, roto

Role	Player	Age	Hand	IP	BB	W	K	SV	ERA	WHIP
1 Starter	Ubaldo Jimenez	29	R	188	87	10	165	0	4.68	1.46
2 Starter	Justin Masterson	28	R	216	71	11	155	0	4.23	1.47
3 Starter	Brett Myers	32	R	179	46	11	129	1	3.63	1.23
4 Starter	Zach McAllister	25	R	186	50	11	135	0	3.71	1.36
5 Starter	Carlos Carrasco	26	R	125	35	6	89	0	3.87	1.31
Closer	Chris Perez	27	R	57	21	1	49	36	3.93	1.23

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