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Fantasy Baseball Strategy: To Stream or not to Stream?

Michael Dixon —  May 23, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

A.J. Griffin has been a good streaming candidate throughout 2013.
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Since this site’s inception, we’ve written a lot about streaming. It’s one of the most heavily used, and also heavily debated on topics in fantasy baseball. So, we’re going to continue to write about it. 

Actually, I devote a column to it every week — Dixon’s Picks.

So, how successful am I? Well, I’m not including the most recent Dixon’s Picks (results have been mixed early, but it’s not complete until the week is over), but take a look at the stats of pitchers I’ve recommended. Just so you know, we’re looking at 21 total starts here.

IP ER H BB K QS W-L ERA WHIP
132.2 53 121 40 95 12 10-5 3.60 1.21

Ironically, the man pictured above, A.J. Griffin has a similar ERA, WHIP, and K/9 ratio so far in 2013. He was also in last week’s Dixon’s Picks and depending on his availability, could well be there more throughout the season.

With that out there…

Do I consider that a successful stat-line?

This answer will tell you a lot about streaming. Because in a competitive roto league that I’m in right now, the ERA and WHIP are decidedly average. Not bad, but not good, either. I also don’t think anyone reading this site strives to be average.

But despite all of that, I do consider that to be a successful line.

The strikeout totals could be better, but I tend to recommend guys who don’t walk many hitters. Those guys are around the plate and because of that, their strikeout totals aren’t great. Conversely, the win-loss record looks pretty good but remember that most of the time, I’m suggesting guys who are going against average to bad opponents. So, a good W-L record  is to be expected.

When I say that I consider those numbers successful despite being average numbers for a fantasy team, remember one thing. I am not specifically advising that you to go out and pick up the pitchers mentioned at any costs. No, what I am saying is that if your team’s pitching needs a bit of a kick, you should give these guys a look for the week.

I am not suggesting that you build a fantasy rotation by streaming waiver wire guys in and out. If you do that and have average pitching numbers by year’s end, throw a parade, because you have seriously overachieved.

You need rotational strongholds. I’m not a huge fan of drafting guys like Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw in the first few rounds, but you do need some solid starters taken in the first half of the draft. If you’re looking for 2013 examples, I’m talking about guys who went in the area of Madison Bumgarner, Yu Darvish, C.C. Sabathia, Johnny Cueto, Matt Moore, etc. Some of those guys may overdo expectations while others may fall short but generally speaking, you’re looking at solid arms to anchor your rotation. If you have a few of these guys, then maybe 2-3 good closers, you’re in a position to stream a little bit to make up for lost numbers.

So…

Do I think you should stream?

It’s not a bad strategy if you know what you’re doing and you have solid pitchers to bank on. You can’t be in a position where a bad start will kill your ERA and/or WHIP. In a head-to-head league, it’s not a great idea unless your league has an extra stat from the standard five (wins, strikeouts, saves, ERA, WHIP), and that extra stat benefits starters.

For example, if your league counts quality starts, then you can stream, throw a lot of innings and make yourself very hard to beat in wins, strikeouts, and quality starts. If you have good closers, then you’re hard to beat in four out of six categories.

But, if it’s a standard league, or you have categories that make extra innings thrown disadvantageous, it’s not such a good idea. In those spots, you can’t punt ERA and WHIP, which is an inherited risk when you stream. The numbers just don’t make it worth it.

Now, in a roto league, I’d say that it depends on how good your base starters are. If they’re good, then a bad start is not going to kill your staff, just like a bad start won’t kill a pitcher’s ERA and WHIP when the season is over. It’s a long year, and things tend to even out. You just have to be sure the pitchers on your team are good enough to even them out.

Now…

Where’s the advantage to streaming?

If you do it well, it can help you across the board. But simply put, streaming will help you get cheap wins and strikeouts.

The Astros and Marlins are on pace to win fewer than 50 games and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if both kept that pace, or even fell off of it over the next four (plus) months. Other teams like the Cubs and Twins appear likely to lose 90 or more games. If you’re streaming against those kinds of teams, you can pick up a lot of cheap wins and strikeouts. Not only are those teams losing, but they aren’t exactly losing games 10-9.

Again, you have to have the rotation that can afford a bad start in roto. Or, in head-to-head, you need to have at least four of six categories pretty well on lock before the week even starts.

Which brings us to this…

Who shouldn’t stream?

We’ve already covered the advantages and disadvantages of different formats. But regardless of format, if you want to stream successfully and make it work consistently, you can’t be this type of owner.

  • Read about a few two-start pitchers for the week.
  • Sign one or two of them.
  • Set your lineup on Sunday night or Monday morning.
  • Don’t pay too much attention until next Saturday night or Monday morning. 

If you’re a good drafter, you can be competitive with that strategy. Heck, you might even be able to win a league with that strategy if you’re a good enough drafter and the league isn’t that deep with good owners. But if you want to stream every, that strategy will kill you in the long haul. You have to know not only your own team’s strengths and weaknesses, and what they can/can’t overcome, but you need to know the same about the other teams in the league — at least the ones closest to you in the standings. Semi-active owners don’t do that, not in an every day sport like baseball.

I’ve won with streaming, and been burned with it before. As is always the case in fantasy baseball, there are no guarantees with streaming. But if you’re an active owner and in a league with the right format, it’s a strategy that you can use to help bring a championship.

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 20

Michael Dixon —  May 20, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.

Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.


Another week, another set of Dixon’s Picks. This is something of an odd week in that most of the good two-start aren’t readily available in most leagues. The bulk of the others aren’t people I’d gamble on at this point. So, we have to improvise.

The first two names you’ll read are available in most leagues. But, that only gets us to four starts. Call me crazy, but I like looking at six good matchups per week. So, that’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to look at a few other guys for one start.

Now, I will say that both of the bonus picks are actually two-start guys. But in both cases, they’re going up against an offense that you just don’t stream pitchers against. So, I’d suggest that you couple these two together and use each in his best matchup.

Now, let’s get to it.

 

  • Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves — Probable Starts: Monday vs. Minnesota Twins, Sunday at New York Mets

Here’s a prime example of where pitcher’s numbers early in the year are inconclusive. Yes, Teheran enters the week with relatively unimpressive numbers, sporting a 4.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. But while those aren’t impressive, they don’t tell the complete story.

When Teheran took the mound on April 23 against the Rockies, his ERA was 7.31. Since then, that total has been reduced by nearly three full points. Welcome to the world of pitcher’s stats in the early part of the year. They are way out of whack. Starting with that Rockies start, three of his four most recent outings were quality starts. Even the one that wasn’t a QS wasn’t terrible in the ERA department, allowing two runs over 5.1 innings.

The recipe for success has been pretty simple over that time. In those four starts, Teheran has walked a total of one hitter. In the three before that, he had seven walks. Nothing new here, but walks are ERA killers. If you don’t issue the free passes, you’re chances to survive are great.

Now, there are still some drawbacks with Julio Teheran. The main one is that he’s a contact pitcher, so he allows a lot of hits. As a matter of fact, he’s never had an outing in 2013 where he allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. Fortunately, these aren’t the teams to expose those flaws. The Mets sport one of baseball’s worst batting averages and OBP, while the Twins are decidedly average in both. Remember, that start will be in Atlanta, so the Twins will not have the DH, either.

Teheran is moving in the right direction, and these are two opponents that will allow him to keep heading that way.

Teheran’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 5 14 3 10 2-0 3.21 1.21

 

  • Josh Lindblom, Texas Rangers – Probable Starts: Monday vs. Oakland Athletics, Sunday at Seattle Mariners

This is something you won’t see in too many Dixon’s Picks — a pitcher making his first ever start in the week I’m suggesting you pick him up. But there a few reasons why Josh Lindblom is a good pick this week.

  • I won’t call the A’s a bad offense. They are a typical Billy Beane team in that they don’t hit for a high average, but do draw a lot of walks. As a result, they’re one of the most prolific scoring offenses in the league. But right now, they’re a struggling team. Even their wins are generally pretty low-scoring. 
  • Seattle is a Bottom-10 offense in most major categories.
  • While he hasn’t been particularly prolific at strikeouts this season, Lindblom has been a strikeout pitcher throughout his career. Both Seattle and Oakland are in the Top-10 in the majors in strikeouts. It’s nice to have a category that you can reliably fall back on if things go south.
  • Though the sample size is somewhat limited (100.2 innings — all relief), Lindblom’s career Major League ERA is 3.31, his WHIP is 1.262, with nearly one strikeout per inning.
  • Lindblom has been excellent in Triple-A this season, sporting a 4-0 record, 2.08 ERA, and 0.877 WHIP in 43.1 innings.

Now, the drawback is that he’s really economical with his pitches, there’s a pretty good chance that Lindblom will be limited to five, maybe six innings this week, especially in the first start. But the good news is that while he’s on the mound, there’s plenty of reason to believe he’ll bring things. Remember, the Rangers are a contending team. When Alexi Ogando went down with an injury, Texas had to bring up a pitcher they were confident in. If they weren’t going anywhere in the standings, they might have gone with a more highly touted guy to get his feet wet, even if the experience was rough. This tells me that they believe in Lindblom for a few starts. So do I.

Lindblom’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
11 3 10 4 14 1-0 2.45 1.27

 

  • Scott Kazmir, Cleveland Indians – Recommended Start: Monday vs. Seattle Mariners 

We’ve already gone over why the Mariners are a good matchup for pitchers. Kazmir, in particular, can be exceptionally dangerous against them, as he enters Monday striking out more than one hitter per inning. Actually, even in Kazmir’s worst years, he still struck out hitters at a good rate.

Like Teheran, Scott Kazmir is a prime example of how stats for pitchers can be deceiving. Yes, he had a terrible opening outing against the Astros of all teams (more on that later, but remember that he issued three walks in that game). But in the 22 subsequent innings, he’s posted an ERA of 3.68, and a WHIP of 1.18. Better yet, he’s struck out 24 batters.

Now, over the weekend, Kazmir will take on the Red Sox at Fenway. The Sox haven’t been especially great over the last few weeks, and I do wonder if they’re true contenders, but I still don’t like that matchup at Fenway. There are just too many good hitters, and too many ways to get in trouble in that park.

But the Mariners are a good matchup. With their tendency to strikeout a lot, you could be looking at a double-digit strikeout day. I won’t go as far as to predict that, but you’ll see plenty from Kazmir.

Kazmir’s Projections against Seattle

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
7 2 5 1 9 1-0 2.57 0.86

 

  • Bartolo Colon, Oakland Athletics – Recommended Start: Sunday at Houston Astros

This is an interesting one. Colon is actually Lindblom’s scheduled opponent, but I just don’t like matchup. Not in Arlington, anyway. While I am not enamored with the matchup against the Rangers, the A’s will leave Arlington to a more pitcher-friendly part of the state, Houston. Actually, the city and ballpark aren’t particularly pitcher-friendly, but the Astros offense is, and that’s what counts here.

Not many pitchers will get into trouble against that offense. Really, when you’re facing a bad offense, the only way you get into trouble is to walk batters. Otherwise, they’re dependent on stringing two or three hits together, and that’s just not likely to happen too often. Say what you will about Bartolo Colon, but he will never beat himself on the mound. Wait, that’s awkward. Well, he doesn’t walk guys, let’s put it that way.

In 47.1 innings in 2013, Colon has issued two walks. Read that again, it is not a typo. TWO WALKS. This is where the ultimate question comes in. What is the worst that can happen? The Astros just don’t have the bats that can inflict serious damage on a pitcher who doesn’t help them out. Colon isn’t a strikeout guy, but Houston tends to bring out the inner Tom Seaver in all of its opponents. As a general rule, if you’re in need of a good start and see a guy on the waiver wire facing the Astros, sign him. Even if the guy is a contact guy who allows a lot of hits (like Colon), if he throws strikes, the outing will almost always be good, and sometimes even great.

Colon’s Projections against Houston

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
7 1 5 0 4 1-0 1.29 0.71

 

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Travis Wood

Michael Dixon —  May 16, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Those of you who read this week’s Dixon’s Picks have gotten something of a sneak preview here, but a guy who’s been one of the best pitchers throughout the early part of 2013 plays on the decidedly mediocre Chicago Cubs. Actually, four-fifths of their starting rotation has been solid, with Jeff Samardzija, Carlos Villanueva, and Scott Feldman producing solid statistics. If you’re good at math, you surely realize that I only counted three people there.

Joining that trio today is, Travis Wood, who has been the team’s best pitcher through the first month-and-a-half. Actually, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball throughout that time. Let’s take a look at what he’s done.

Date Opponent IP ER H BB K Dec.
4/4 @ Pirates 6 0 1 2 4 W
4/9 vs. Brewers 6.1 2 7 3 6 ND
4/16 vs. Rangers 7.1 2 5 3 3 L
4/22 @ Reds 6.1 2 4 2 5 ND
4/27 @ Marlins 6 2 3 1 5 W
5/2 vs. Padres 7.2 3 4 1 3 L
5/7 vs. Cardinals 6.2 1 5 2 8 W
5/13 vs. Rockies 7 0 2 3 2 W

Giving him a pretty line of this:

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
53.1  12  31  17  36  4-2  2.03  0.90 

Also, in eight outings he’s posted a perfect, league leading, eight quality starts. That’s not always indicative of a great start but if it’s done every outing, it’s a sign of consistency and the numbers will be low. But none of that matters now. If he’s available to you now, you want to know what he’s going to do, not what’s been done. So, let’s take a look.

 

What Worries Me

I like Wood, I really do. But plenty concerns me here about the rest of the season. Let’s start with this:

Entering 2013, Wood had a career ERA of 4.22. Just for the sake of argument, let’s say that he finishes the season with 200 innings pitched and a 3.60 ERA. Yes, you probably would have taken that in the beginning of the season, but that would be a 4.17 ERA from here on out.

What if his ERA is a little worse? Let’s say closer to 4.00. What if he doesn’t hit 200 innings? Between the majors and minors, he was right around that mark last year, but 200 Major League innings is quite a bit different from 156, and 41.1 in the minors. It’s going to be very hard for him to sustain this kind of run through September.

Also, remember that the weather’s been a little cool in the midwest and east throughout the 2013 season. There have been a lot of weather delays/postponements, and general cold weather in most of the Cubs’ games. 

That’s going to change pretty soon. When the weather gets hot, the balls carry better, the pitchers get tired easier, and the conditions are generally more favorable for hitters. Wrigley Field is certainly not a pitcher’s park, nor are most of the NL Central’s ballparks. So, when the conditions become good for hitters, they become really good. For a pitcher like Wood, who has even struggled with walks this year, it seems like a recipe for disaster.

On the positive end, I will say that I think an offense with Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, and Alfonso Soriano occupying the heart of it will eventually start scoring some runs and break out of the Bottom-10 of the league. But the Cubs bullpen is one of the worst in the league this year, and was last year, as well. The offense may score some more runs in support of Wood and the rest of the Cubs’ pitchers, but don’t be surprised to see plenty potential wins squandered in the late innings.

Say what you will about the win but in a standard league, it is one-quarter of the fantasy pitcher’s stats. For a guy who’s not a big strikeout guy that you’re probably expecting an ERA/WHIP drop from, not being able to pencil in a decent win total is a problem. 

 

What I like

The scenario I posted above is a bit of a concern. I won’t say that I expect this kind of production from Wood for the rest of the season, but I do expect him to stay hot for a while. Assuming there are no injuries and that Wood takes the ball every fifth game for the Cubbies, look at his remaining probable first half outings.

  • at Mets
  • at Reds
  • vs White Sox
  • at Angels
  • vs Reds
  • at Mets
  • vs Astros
  • at Brewers
  • at A’s
  • vs Angels
  • vs Cardinals

There are a few tough teams in there for sure, but Wood has already done a good job against some good offenses this year. Yes, his stats have been padded a bit by the likes of the Padres and Marlins, but he’s done just fine against the Brewers, Rangers, Reds, Cardinals, and Rockies.

When you start thinking about some of the better hitters that Wood will face, the outlook doesn’t look too bad. What do Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Ike Davis, Josh Hamilton, and Adam Dunn all have in common? Well, they’re all dangerous hitters. And no, I am not putting Dunn on the same level as Votto, but he can run into a ball on occasion. But they’re also all lefties, and lefties have hit just over .200 against Wood in his career. So, all of a sudden, even the bad matchups don’t look so bad.

 

What I think

There are no doubt some drawbacks here. Wood’s done extremely well this year, which means that you can expect things to level out at some point.

There are two questions to ask here, though?

  1. How much will they level out?
  2. How soon will it happen?

Question 1: I am expecting something around a 3.60 ERA this year from Wood. But a 4.22 ERA from this point on isn’t bad. Also, It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see him closer to 3.40, and I don’t think he’ll finish much higher than 3.80. So, I am not expecting too much of a leveling off, even if he doesn’t remain a Cy Young contender all year.

Question 2: I like the matchups for the rest of the first half. I especially like them if the Angels continue to struggle like they have.

So, what I’d advise you to do is to go out and grab him right now. He may eventually level out a little bit, but I haven’t seen any signs of that happening yet. Worrying about leveling out is fine, but don’t act on those fears until it starts to happen.

In Miscellany, Waiver Wire , ,
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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 13

Michael Dixon —  May 13, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Photo courtesy of Mike LaChance.

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks! I hope that everyone had a good weekend.

This isn’t the best week when it comes to two-start guys. There aren’t many available guys out there going against two bad offenses this week. So, that means that you’ve gotta take some chances. But, that’s a big part of streaming anyway. So, let’s take a look at some guys to consider gambling on.

 

  • A.J. Griffin, Oakland Athletics — Probable Starts: Monday vs. Texas Rangers, Sunday vs. Kansas City Royals

I’ve been a fan of A.J. Griffin all year, so I guess there’s no reason that he shouldn’t be here. At first glance, his 3.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP look decent, but probably not great. But he’s taken the mound seven times, recording five quality starts, and only one really bad outing, which came against the Red Sox at Fenway Park. To show you what one bad start can do this time of the year, Griffin’s ERA in his other six outings is 2.68, while his WHIP is 1.14. That looks much better.

As far as this week goes, I get some skepticism about starting him against the Rangers. That’s certainly a lineup that can produce a bad day. But if 2012 is any indicator, Oakland isn’t exactly Texas’ happy place. They hit only .212 in the Coliseum last year, hitting only five home runs. The fewest of any of any AL West stadium (in 2012). Oakland’s big dimensions hurt a lot of bats, and the Rangers’ potent lineup hasn’t been much different. Remember that while the 2013 Rangers are a good team, their pitching is a big reason why. Texas are currently hitting .263. They did lose Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, and Mike Napoli. So, in a pitcher’s park, they can be had.

The Royals are always an interesting team for me to include here. They are one of the better hitting teams in the league in terms of average, but are in the bottom-third of the MLB in scoring runs. So, I have no reason to believe that Griffin won’t do well against them, even if a few more guys get on base than you’d normally like.

There’s also one more bonus with Griffin. While he only gets one start next week, it comes against the Astros. So, you can count on a pretty good outing there, too.

Griffin’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 5 14 3 11 1-1 3.21 1.21

 

  • Jason Vargas, Los Angeles Angels — Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Kansas City Royals, Sunday vs. Chicago White Sox

Much like Griffin, Jason Vargas is an old friend who I’ve written about more times than I care to count. You may be asking yourself a question. How in the world can I suggest throwing a guy who just had a rough outing against the Astros? Well, the two outings before were gems, and the one before that was not bad at all. Take a look, going in reverse chronological order.

Opponent IP H ER BB K
Baltimore Orioles 9 3 0 2 3
at Seattle Mariners 8 6 2 2 7
Texas Rangers 7 7 3 3 7

So yes, the outing against the Astros was bad, but I’m not giving up on a guy who came into that start really hot.The start against the Royals should be an interesting one. As we went over with Griffin, they get a lot of hits, but don’t score a lot of runs. Vargas gives up a lot of hits, but not a lot of runs. So, expect some stranded runners there.

As for the White Sox, they are a bottom two offensive team in just about every offensive category. Mind you, that’s not bottom two in the American League, but bottom two in all of baseball. Other than the Marlins, every team in the DH-free National League has scored more runs, gets on base more, etc. That’s amazing.

Heading into Angel Stadium, it’s hard to see those numbers going up too much. You have to play odds here and while the Astros defied those odds once against Vargas, don’t bet on it happening again. Make your own decision about the start against the Royals, but the White Sox are a pitcher-friendly opponent in 2013.

Vargas’ Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 5 12 5 11 1-0 3.46 1.30

 

  • Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs – Probable Starts: Monday vs. Colorado Rockies, Sunday vs. New York Mets

Do you know that Travis Wood enters this week with a WHIP under 1.00? Do you know that every one of his outings has been a quality start? This includes outings against the Brewers, Rangers, Reds (in Cincinnati), and Cardinals. Do you know that over the last two months of 2012, Wood had an ERA of 3.56, and a WHIP of 1.10?

Well, whether you knew it or not, it’s all true.

So, even though the Rockies have been pretty solid with the bats both at Coors Field and away from it, I feel alright with Wood against that lineup. Yes, they could make me eat those words, but their numbers were also aided by a really strong start to the season. Over the last few weeks, Colorado has normalized a little bit. You may not like the matchup, but I’m not scared of it.

I’m definitely not scared of the matchup against the Mets over the weekend. They have done a decent job scoring runs, but nothing more than that. Wood has done well against far better offenses this year. A red-hot pitcher should do just fine against that offense. Grab Wood and ride him until this hot streak ends. He’s still on an awful lot of waiver wires. Give him a roster spot — at least for the week.

Wood’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 4 11 4 11 2-0 2.57 1.07

 

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Fantasy Baseball 2013 Waiver Wire: Kyle Kendrick

Michael Dixon —  May 11, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of ElCapitanBSC.

Photo courtesy of ElCapitanBSC.

I know that everyone likes putting labels on things. Well, I like putting labels on things and since I’m writing this, I’m going to go ahead and assume that the entire human race likes the same things I do.

So, with that being said, what do we call Kyle Kendrick? Being owned in 54 percent of Yahoo leagues and 86 percent of ESPN leagues, he’s not a true sleeper. By the way, don’t ask me if I can explain why there’s such a discrepancy. I can not. Still, it’s quite possible that if you’re reading this, he’s available in your league. That’s pretty amazing when you look at his numbers over his last 17 starts, dating back to last season. Take a look, going start-by-start.

Date Opponent IP H BB ER K Decision
8/14/12 at Miami Marlins 7 5 0 0 6 Win
8/19/12 at Milwaukee Brewers 8 3 1 0 7 Win
8/24/12 Washington Nationals 6.2 4 2 2 3 Win
8/30/12 New York Mets 7.2 7 0 2 6 Win
9/4/12 at Cincinnati Reds 6 6 1 2 3 Loss
9/10/12 Miami Marlins 7 2 3 1 8 Win
9/15/12 at Houston Astros 5 7 0 4 4 Loss
9/21/12 Atlanta Braves 6.2 5 1 2 6 Win
9/26/12 Washington Nationals 2 5 2 4 1 Loss
10/1/12 at Washingotn Nationals 7 4 1 0 4 Win
4/5/13 Kansas City Royals 5.2 8 2 5 3 Loss
4/10/13 New York Mets 6 8 2 2 6 Win
4/16/13 at Cincinnati Reds 7 2 2 0 4 ND
4/21/13 St. Louis Cardinals 6 8 1 2 6 ND
4/26/13 at New York Mets 9 3 1 0 5 Win
5/2/13 vs. Miami Marlins 7 7 2 2 5 Win
5/7/13 at San Francisco Giants 7 6 0 2 6 Win

Which gives us these totals over those 17 starts:

IP H BB ER K QS W-L ERA WHIP
110 90 21 30 83 14 11-4 2.34 1.01

Now, consider that 17 starts is roughly half of a season. So, multiply this by two and you’re looking at a real Cy Young contender. Given his previous seasons, this is certainly surprising. The question is: how surprising?

The run at the end of 2012 made that season look a lot better. Before that August 14 gem against the Marlins, his ERA stood at 4.86. Now, at the end of that start, it was 4.53. A drop that big can be attributed to lack of innings. But still, by the end of the year, his ERA was 3.90. So, in a month-and-a-half, he dropped nearly a full point of of his ERA. That’s solid, but on it’s own, not necessarily indicative of anything more than a nice hot streak, even when you factor in this season’s success.

What is indicative of a good pitcher is a cool 3.22 ERA he recorded in 2011. Yes, Kendrick had his struggles through 2010 but since the start of the 2011 season, he’s got a 3.44 ERA and 1.228 WHIP. So, how is this season different?

Well, Kendrick’s throwing the ball over the plate. In 2010 and 2011, he walked 2.4 hitters per nine innings. In 2012, that number was up to 2.8. Thus far in 2013, he’s walking fewer than two hitters per nine inning, which is a strong rate for just about anyone. Kendrick is also allowing fewer than eight hits per nine innings for the first time in his career, which can be directly attributed to not walking guys.

When you’re not walking hitters, you’re not falling behind in the count much. That’s a big thing because when you fall behind in the count, you’re forced to challenge hitters with pitches over the middle of the plate. Naturally, that makes you more susceptible to allowing hits.

Conversely, when you jump ahead in the count, you can throw more off-speed stuff, nibbling the corners more. When hitters are down in the count, they have to protect the plate and swing at those pitches. Now, Kendrick’s not a big strikeout guy. He’s currently striking hitters out at a rate of 6.6 per nine innings, the same as it was in 2012. While that number is up from his previous career total (4.1 K’s per 9 innings), it’s still not dangerously high.

But when hitters are swinging at breaking pitches on the corner, or even out of the zone, the contact they make is not going to be especially loud. So, you get great runs like the one Kendrick has had over the last 17 starts. I’m not going to predict that Kendrick will literally stay at this rate all throughout 2013. But if he keeps throwing strikes, don’t expect that much of a drop.

It’s good to know that I’m not the only one who feels so. On Twitter, I posed a simple question to our followers. What do people feel about Kendrick? Is he for real or not? We got this response from Bryce Liesmer, one of our readers.

True as that it, it actually goes a little beyond that. The Marlins lineup that he started this run against last year included both Jose Reyes and Giancarlo Stanton. Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez had great offensive seasons in 2012. In this run, he’s recorded at least one quality start against the Nationals, Reds, Giants, Cardinals, and Braves, who were the National League’s five playoff teams in 2012.

While the Nats did rough him up once in 2012, the other two failed quality starts came against struggling teams. This year’s Royals have a real hit-or-miss offense, and they roughed Kendrick up. Last year’s Astros lost 107 games, but roughed him up. Without those two bad starts, the numbers are even better.

What that all says is that I don’t worry about Kendrick when a tough opponent comes up. He’s turned a corner in his career and while I do expect him to normalize a bit throughout this season, he needs to be swiped up. If Kendrick’s available in your league, get out there and keep your rivals from grabbing him. I don’t want to say that Kendrick’s success has been a complete secret, but too many fantasy owners don’t seem aware of it. Don’t make that mistake.

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Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles: Another Look at R.A. Dickey

Michael Dixon —  May 9, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Friends, I have something that I need to tell you all. I hope you’re all sitting down. Are you ready for this?

Something is wrong with R.A. Dickey. In 2012, he was a bright spot on a dismal Mets team. Now in 2013, he’s one of many big name Blue Jays that’s just not getting the job done.

Okay, not exactly a big scoop.

Now, here’s the problem. I have no idea what the problem is. It could be any number of things.

  • Maybe Dickey is having a rough time adjusting to the American League. You wouldn’t think the DH would lead to such a drastic turnaround, but never underestimate the mental element here. In the National League, you know that the pitcher going to bat. So, if you’re in the bottom half of the lineup, you know that a virtually automatic out is coming. 
  • Maybe he’s having a hard time adjusting to a better hitter’s yard in Rogers Centre. Toronto’s park is spacious, but it tends to be significantly more live than Citi Field.
  • Maybe the knuckleball is a bad pitch in a dome. It makes some sense, as the wind can blow a pitch like that around more than any other pitch.
  • Maybe Dickey is just 38 and had one great but final hurrah in 2012.
  • Maybe the league has figured out Dickey’s timing with the knuckleball.
  • Maybe he’s having having a hard time with the Toronto catchers, as knuckleballs are more difficult to catch.
  • Maybe Dickey isn’t feeling 100 percent. Actually, he definitely isn’t but maybe it’s hurting more than we realize.

It could be any or all of the things listed above. It could be something different. It could just be that the season is still really early and Dickey will eventually find a groove and return to the form we saw in 2012. After all, he’s not the only ace to have a rough go of things early. Matt Cain and David Price have both struggled, but aren’t warranting too much panic. So, should Dickey?

In a word, yes. See, in the case of Cain, Price, or any other struggling arms, they have other pitches they can rely on. They can mix speeds and avoid pitches that they’re struggling with until they work their way out of the jam. 

When Dickey’s struggling, he’s got one pitch to fall back on. Worse, there’s not much you can really do with a knuckleball. While it could be anything listed above that’s bothering Dickey, the knuckleball is a factor, and it’s also going to make coming out of his struggles very difficult.

Worse off, the American League East is much more difficult than anyone here expected. We were thinking that the traditional big market powers, the Yankees and the Red Sox, would have down years. So far, that hasn’t happened. Additionally, Baltimore hasn’t collapsed, as was somewhat expected. Tampa’s having a bad year, especially with the bats, but one struggling opponent out of the four you face most often still makes for a rough recovery from Dickey.

At this point, Dickey’s fantasy owners (author included) have to be almost hoping that something is wrong with him physically. Of course, nothing serious, but he’s like Roy Halladay. If the problem isn’t an injury, than it’s hard to say anything other than he’s just a pitcher in his 30′s who’s lost his touch.

So, here’s the question. What should you do with Dickey? Well, let’s take a look at his next five probable starts (starting tonight) before answering that question.

  • Thursday, 5/9: at Tampa Bay
  • Wedneday, 5/15: vs. San Francisco
  • Tuesday, 5/21: vs. Tampa Bay
  • Sunday, 5/26: vs. Baltimore
  • Sunday, 5/31: at San Diego

So, again, what should you do? Well, right now, you need to be shopping him. Hopefully someone in your league likes big names and will give you a pile of talent for the reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner. Big name hunters do exist in fantasy baseball, some of them are even good owners. They’re also generally the last to realize when a big name player takes a step in the wrong direction.

If you can’t get that, then hold on to Dickey, probably leaving him on the bench for start against the Orioles, and possibly for the outing against the Giants. Generally speaking, even when the Giants and Rays are winning, they’re doing so with good pitching. The Giants haven’t had that in a big way this year, but are still winning. So, the bats are there. Just evaluate your team when deciding on that outing, and Baltimore’s.

But the starts against the Rays and Padres should be good for him. If he hasn’t turned a corner by the end of May, it’s time to make a clean break from Dickey. That would be a rough third of the season for a knuckleball guy. If it’s not turned around by then, I wouldn’t hold my breath that it will in the summer months, when the weather is warmer and the hitters tend to be a bit more dominant.

So, in the end. Look for a trade right now. If you can’t find one, give him until the end of the month. You should be panicked and looking for other ways to get strong pitching.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Brandon Crawford

Michael Dixon —  May 8, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of rocor.

Photo courtesy of rocor.

There are many keys to contending in a fantasy baseball league. One of them is this: When you’re weak at a position and see a waiver wire at that position guy on a hot streak, grab him. But that’s only part of the equation. When said player is cooling down, realize that he was on the waiver wire to begin with and send him back there. When a star slumps, you can be confident that he’ll climb out of it. When a waiver wire guy slumps, you shouldn’t have such confidence.

Now, shortstop is one of the weakest fantasy positions. One of the bright performers there through April was Brandon Crawford of the San Francisco Giants. The question is — was Crawford just a waiver wire guy, or is he a viable option at shortstop? Let’s take a look.

First, May hasn’t been especially kind to Crawford, but the month is still early. So, let’s just take a look at what he did in April, and what those numbers would look like if he repeated April’s numbers every month.

  PA/AB H BB-HBP K R HR RBI SB AVG/OBP/SLG
April 105/92 25 11 17 16 5 14 0 .272/.346/.511
Pace 630/552 150 66 102 96 30 84 0 .272/.346/.511

So, is that sustainable? Some of it? All of it? None of it? Let’s take a look.

 

What I like

The power numbers are phenomenal, but that’s not what I am going to focus on because (SPOILER ALERT), they’re not sustainable. But I love that Crawford also had five doubles in April. Those are sustainable, and how lefties not named Barry Bonds need to hit at AT&T Park. It’s not a power park for anyone but if you’re a lefty and swing for the fences, you’re going to become very frustrated very fast. Conversely, if you swing for the gaps and use the park’s size to your advantage, good things can happen. So, Crawford being on about a 30-double pace in 2013 is a really positive sign.

Overall, I like the average and while he’s slumped through the early part of May, it’s sustainable. Actually, he can improve quite a bit on it, at least if 2012 is an indicator. In the final two months of the season in 2012, Crawford hit a solid .284, doing so most of the time from the bottom of the Giants batting order. Eight hitters don’t usually get great pitches to hit so batting over .280 over two months is nothing to sneeze at.

Also adding to Crawford’s value is that the Giants lineup is in more a state of flux than it was probably thought to be at the beginning of the year. The primary lineup that won the world series was (in order), Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco, Crawford, then the pitcher. That lineup returned in 2013, with the only tweak being Andres Torres, who now platoons with Blanco. Barring injury, there wasn’t much that would happen with Crawford, except for possibly jumping the Blanco/Torres platoon. Either way, a 7/8 hitter in a National League lineup is a fantasy dead zone.

But Belt didn’t have a good April, nor did Scutaro. Heck, neither did Posey, but he’s not moving in the order. Those struggles moved Crawford around the order, into more fantasy friendly spots. Whether that stays or not remains to be seen but if nothing else, realize that Bruce Bochy may look to get his older veterans (namely Scutaro) a few extra days off.

Something else that’s nice is Crawford’s glove. No, that doesn’t help your fantasy team one bit, but you’d better believe that Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, Ryan Vogelsong, Sergio Romo, and the rest of the Giants pitchers appreciate having him out there. That basically means that even if he slumps, his glove will still get him quality playing time. That’s really significant when you’re dealing with waiver wire hitters. That will give Crawford more chances to get his average up to around .280, and even improve the counted stats.

 

What I don’t like

Again, the power numbers aren’t sustainable. No lefty other than Bonds has hit 30 home runs for the Giants since AT&T Park opened. The prevailing winds push the ball away from the short right-field foul pole and into the power alley, which is headlined by a right-center field wall 421 feet away from home plate. So, while five homers in a month is a good start, don’t look for the pace of 30 to hold. Remember, he entered 2013 with seven homers in 631 career at-bats. Realistically, if he gets to 15, you should be pretty encouraged.

Also, while the lineup has been in more flux than probably expected, don’t look for Crawford to get above the six-hole. That will provide some RBI chances when Sandoval, Posey, and Pence reach base, but it’s not exactly a place you want your fantasy players hitting. To really succeed in fantasy baseball, you need at-bats and the further down you bat, the less you’ll see the plate.

Also, while hitting sixth could help his RBI totals, it will probably hurt his runs scored. Batting eighth isn’t what you want, but at least you have a chance of having the lineup turn over when you reach base. The only reason Belt would consistently bat behind Crawford is if he’s scuffling, and the Blanco/Torres platoon isn’t exactly a run producing duo. So, don’t look for Crawford to make his away around the diamond batting sixth in that order.

 

What I think

Crawford’s a better real player than a fantasy guy. Now, his bat has shown steady improvement since his MLB debut in 2011 so I don’t doubt that he’s a player on the rise, but he’s in the wrong part of the wrong order to carry great fantasy value.

Having said that, if he’s riding a hot streak and you need a SS, don’t be afraid to sweep him up. But from a fantasy perspective, I wouldn’t expect  anything more than hot streak production until the All-Star-Break. We can take at his numbers then to see if he’s a guy who should be permanently rostered. Right now, he hasn’t done enough to deserve that ownership rate.

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Fantasy Baseball: Reevaluating Jose Fernandez

Michael Dixon —  May 7, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Paul Hadsall.

Photo courtesy of Paul Hadsall.

At the beginning of the season, I took a question from a reader and turned it into a piece on Miami Marlins’ rookie phenom Jose Fernandez. The question was simple: What kind of fantasy value does Jose Fernandez have in 2013?

I thought that my answer was pretty simple. Generally speaking, I like to stay away from rookie pitchers. But especially since he was jumping from Single-A to the show, I advised players to wait five starts, not two.

On Saturday, Fernandez made his sixth start of the year. So, we’re at the threshold where it’s time to do some evaluating. Before we do that, let’s look at what he’s done over those six starts.

Start No. Opponent IP Pitch Count ER H BB K Decision
1 @ Mets 5 80 1 3 1 8 ND
2 Phillies 6 85 0 2 2 5 ND
3 @ Reds 4 79 5 6 3 4 L
4 @ Twins 5 79 4 6 2 2 L
5 Mets 4 81 2 3 3 4 ND
6 @ Phillies 7 82 0 1 1 9 W

All of that leads us to a total stat-line of:

IP ER H BB K ERA WHIP Record
31 12 21 12 32 3.48 1.06 1-2

Let’s take a little bit of a deeper look here:

What I like

Well, it’s pretty simple. Jose Fernandez has fantastic stuff, and it’s showing in the numbers.

Now, he’s still at a point of the season where one outing really changes the overall numbers. For example, in the start against the Phillies, his ERA dropped from 4.50. Still, it’s hard to look past those strikeout totals, which have been consistently strong through six outings.

What’s really positive is the last start. Granted, the Phillies aren’t the same vaunted lineup that they were when they won the NL East every year between 2007 and 2011, but they still have dangerous hitters, and Fernandez doesn’t seem to have any fear against them. Citizens Bank Park is a good hitter’s yard, and you can’t help but be impressed but seven one-hit innings, especially against a lineup that’s seen you before. It’s one thing to have electric stuff and dominate a lineup that’s never faced you, but it’s really impressive to be better in your second outing against a team than you were in a very good first start.

I also like the fact that he pitches in a good stadium to pitch. The outfields at Marlins Park are about as spacious as any in the league. So not only is his stuff electric, but whenever Fernandez is pitching at home, any time hitters do get a bat on the ball, it will be tough for them to do much damage against him.

 

What I don’t like

Fair warning. This section’s going to be a lot longer than the previous one. As a result, it will probably come off as though I’m really down on Fernandez. But truthfully, most of what works against Fernandez is out of his control. But, we’ll start with the one thing that he can control — his control.

The walks need to come down in a big way. The one walk over seven innings he had against Philly is really good, but 12 walks in 31 innings is just too high. Now, this isn’t exactly an uncommon trait for young pitchers, especially power pitchers, but it does need to change.

Getting roughed up by the Reds is one thing, though it wouldn’t have been as bad had he walked fewer hitters. But even mediocre offenses like the Twins and Mets can be rough for you when you’re walking hitters consistently. I do believe that in time Fernandez will gain better control, but until that happens, you can expect some rough starts.

Now, for everything else that isn’t in his control…

We’ll start with the obvious. The Marlins are abysmal. Right now, they’d need to up their pace to win even 50 games this year and if I was a betting man, I wouldn’t bet anything more than the change under the couch cushion that they’ll do that. Especially if Giancarlo Stanton misses substantial time, this could be the worst team in baseball history.

Obviously, if the team isn’t winning any games, then the pitchers on it won’t win games either. The worst team in recent memory, the 2003 Tigers, were led in wins by Mike Maroth, who pulled down nine victories. Lucas Harrell won 11 for the 55-107 Astros in 2012, so you get the point.

Also, the problem with the Marlins is that they don’t score runs. Without Stanton, that’s going to get better before it gets worse. So, their pitchers have zero margin for error. Even in the one win Fernandez had, the Marlins scored two runs. If he made even one bad pitch when one of the two men were on base, he’s looking at another no decision, or even a loss.

This is why someone like Jason Marquis has an ERA nearly a full point higher than Fernandez, but has two more wins. Remember, Marquis is on the Padres, not exactly a World Series contender in their own right. That kind of stuff is not going to change as the season gets deeper.

What scares me about young pitchers in general is that they’re on pitch counts, and Fernandez is no different. Look at what Juan C. Rodriguez, Marlins Beat Writer with the Sun Sentinel said at the beginning of the season.

That’s not likely to go up. I know comparing organization’s decisions is tricky, but remember that the Nationals put Stephen Strasburg on a similar watch in 2012, and kept it.

I know it’s not exactly an apples to apples comparison, as Strasburg did have Tommy John surgery in 2010. But the Nationals were a World Series contender in 2012, and shut down their ace pitcher. Raise your hand if you think the Marlins are a World Series contender in 2013. Anyone? Anyone? Nope. A team out of contention isn’t going to extend one of their few MLB-proven bright spots to win 45 games instead of 43.

Look at the innings in those six starts, even the good ones. He’s only gotten through six innings twice, and past the sixth once. Even in his last start, he only threw 82 pitches. Mike Redmond could have easily given him the ball for the eighth inning, but didn’t. Actually, I included pitch count in the start-by-start breakdown for a reason. Look at all of those starts. He’s never thrown more than 85 pitches. When you’re on such a tight pitch count AND walk a lot of guys, you’re not going to throw many innings.

When you’re generally limited to fewer than six innings, you’re not going to win many games, even on a good team. Remember, you need to go five innings to even qualify for a win. Even if the team ends up winning the game, they need to winning at the time you’re pulled and never blow the lead for you to get a win as the starter.

It’s not just the wins. When you’re on an innings watch, your bad outings show up more on the ERA and WHIP. And if he throws 150 innings and strikes out hitters at the same rate he did in the minors (10.7 per nine innings), that’s still fewer than 180 strikeouts. That’s not a bad total, but pitchers who aren’t exactly strikeout guys are around that mark when they hit 200 or more innings, and they generally don’t walk as many guys. Yes, Fernandez has a phenomenal WHIP right now, but entered that second Philadelphia start with a 1.29 mark. Another few rough, or even so-so outings, will bring that WHIP back up to above 1.25.

So, that’s all to say this. Tight innings for a starting pitcher is bad.

Again, nothing but the walks can really be blamed on Fernandez. But regardless of whose fault those things are, his 2013 fantasy value takes a hit because of it.

 

What I think the future holds

Beyond 2013, I like Fernandez an awful lot. But for the rest of 2013, I’m still seeing limited value.

Again, other than his walks, none of this is really Fernandez’s fault, but the innings/pitch count is really going to hurt the fantasy value. Now, if he does strike out 180 guys this year, that’s still a good total.

I’d give you one of the following advice: Bring him in, but be careful when you start him. Maybe roster him, but only start him in better matchups. He’ll have plenty of strong outings this year, but you have to account for the rough ones. Hopefully he’s not active for you when that happens. The strikeout total will still be good and maybe he can pick up more wins than expected. Just keep the innings watch in mind and remember how quickly things can go south.

Fernandez has a great future. In a keeper league, I like him, especially in an auction setting. If I had to guess, I’d say that he’ll be quite the bargain in 2014 based on set value, but overpriced if he actually reaches an auction.

Don’t be afraid to put him on your roster. Just be careful when you do it. There are a lot of risks, and most are the worst kind. Risks that have nothing to do with Fernandez.

In Miscellany, Player Profiles, Waiver Wire , ,
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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 6

Michael Dixon —  May 6, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks and welcome to May! Although, if you were in some parts of this country last week, you might be going out looking for Christmas trees. Here in California, it’s definitely May and baseball season is in full swing now. Actually, I’ll be heading out to my first baseball game of the season this week.

But enough about me and enough about the weather. Let’s good at some good pitching matchups for you fantasy baseball players out there looking for a bit of a short-term jolt.

Shall we? Good. Let’s do it.

 

  • Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres – Probable Starts: Monday vs. Miami Marlins, Sunday at Tampa Bay Rays

If you remember right, I recommended Andrew Cashner last week for two reasons. 

  1. The matchup with the Cubs was a good one.
  2. He’s going twice this week in favorable matchups.

Now, the Cubs may be a good matchup, but they roughed Cashner up pretty good. Still, I’m looking beyond that.

The bottom line is that the Marlins are a terrible lineup, and they won’t even have Giancarlo Stanton for a while. The Rays are starting to heat up a little bit, but they’re still statistically a middle-of-the-road offense in most categories. 

If you like to stream and play the waiver wire with pitchers, you’re just not going to find a more favorable situation than this one. Well, maybe if you subbed the Astros for the Rays, but that’s just too ideal. 

I’m looking for a strong week from a pitcher that I still have moderately high hopes for. Everyone has a rough outing now and then, and Cashner’s still finding himself as a starter. Granted, you probably won’t get more than six innings unless he’s really economical with pitches, but the innings you get should be quality. 

Cashner’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
11 4 9 3 9 1-0 3.27 1.09

 

  • Nick Tepesch, Texas Rangers – Probable Starts: Monday at Chicago Cubs, Sunday at Houston Astros

Yes, Wrigley Field and Minute Maid Park are both hitter-friendly. But the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are two pitcher-friendly lineups. The Cubs have some dangerous hitters, but are one of the worst offenses in the league in nearly every category. The Astros have been better than expected with the bats this year, but that’s not saying much. They’re still mediocre, at best, in just about every category. 

What makes Nick Tepesch such a good stream option (beyond the matchups and his availability) is that he doesn’t walk hitters. Even in the minors, he found the strike zone. When you do that and make hitters get hits to get on base, the numbers start to work in your favor as a pitcher. Remember, even good hitters get out seven out of ten times, when they don’t walk.

Granted, he doesn’t strike many out, either. But the Astros have a way of making opposing pitchers look like Nolan Ryan. They strike out nearly 10 times per game, which is awful for anyone, but especially an American League team. Even a bad DH should make contact with the ball more often than not. 

Tepesch enters the week with a solid 3.54/1.18 ERA/WHIP. There have been a few rough patches, but those game against much better offenses than either of these two, and he’s had some good outings against much better offenses, as well. 

With rookies, I tend to be careful, but that’s in a long term sense. A control pitcher in a week like this one should be just fine for your team. Throw in the fact that the Rangers are much better than either team, meaning two wins are quite possible, and this is a good addition.

Tepesch’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 3 11 2 10 2-0 2.08 1.00

 

  • Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore Orioles – Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Kansas City Royals, Sunday at Minnesota Twins

In many ways, Wei-Yin Chen reminds me a lot of his team, the Baltimore Orioles. At the beginning of the year, there was plenty of doubt as to whether this team could be contenders again. On the same note, there were questions about whether or not Chen could produce the way he did last year, when he won 12 games with a decent 4.02 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Not spectacular, but not bad, either. 

So far, both Chen and the Orioles have been just fine. Chen has thrown had four quality starts in his six outings, and only one of them was what you’d call bad. Granted, that was his last outing, but he was solid all year to that point, and solid against some good offenses. The Royals get on base well, but they don’t score runs, while the Twins are average to just flat out bad across the board. 

Chen is a little different from Tepesch in that he allows some free passes, but does a good job of getting the rest of the hitters out. As a result, they finished April with eerily similar WHIP’s (1.18 for Tepesch, 1.19 for Chen).

Like Tepesch, he’s been solid this year and looking at two favorable matchups. The track record is good enough to give him a chance for a week like this one.  

Chen’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 4 9 3 9 1-0 2.77 0.92

 

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Fantasy Baseball: Replacing Giancarlo Stanton

Michael Dixon —  April 30, 2013 — 2 Comments
Photo courtesy of d-deee.

Photo courtesy of d-deee.

A dismal Miami Marlins season just got worse. The team has placed Giancarlo Stanton on the disabled list and according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, Stanton will likely miss the better part of a month, if not more. To be honest, I’m not sure things can get much worse for the Marlins, though we’re about to find out. But for fantasy owners who already have missed Stanton’s services for an extended time, losing him just as he was beginning to find his power is pretty bad.

So, can you replace him? Well, let’s take a look at some outfielders likely available to you.

 

Chris Carter –  Houston Astros

The Good

Carter’s gotten off to a nice start this year, at least when it comes to hitting home runs. Given the better part of a full season, there is no reason to believe that Chris Carter can’t be around 30 home runs. That’s been his rate throughout his minor league career, and even briefly while in the majors. At pretty much every level, Carter’s hit home runs at a rate that would put him at about 30 for a Major League season. 

This year, he’s hit five homers in the first month of the year. Well, a season is six months long so five homers a month is…30 homers. Minute Maid Park is definitely a good environment for a guy like Carter. The Crawford Boxes scream out and beg right-handed mashers to flip balls over that wall. Focusing on home runs alone, I’m not sure that Carter would be a significant drop compared to Stanton, even if Giancarlo played a full year. Stanton’s a more well-rounded player, but Carter is close to his equal with power.

 

The Bad

There are a few things to look at here.

  1. If you’re in a league that uses individual outfield positions, Carter isn’t an option. He carries left field eligibility, while Stanton is exclusively a right fielder. So, you’d need to plug someone else into the RF spot if you go this route. 
  2. Much like Stanton, Carter will get almost no help from his teammates in runs or RBI. The Marlins and Astros will be in a season-long race for the league’s worst record, and their respective offenses are a big reason why.
  3. Even if he’s decent in runs and RBI, Carter is an absolute drain on the average and doesn’t steal any bases. He’s a .216 career Major League hitter, with one career steal. So, you’d better have room to spare in those categories if you go with Carter, as even Stanton is good for a few steals a year and hits for a much higher average.

 

Gerardo Parra – Arizona Diamondbacks

The Good

If you go with Gerardo Parra, you’ll be set even if your league uses individual positions, as he’s got eligibility in left, center, and right. This looked  like a problem early in the year, as Arizona’s got a very clustered outfield situation, but early season injuries to Adam Eaton, Cody Ross, and Jason Kubel have certainly opened the doors for Parra, who’s performed well in the first month of the year.

What’s really nice about Parra is that he’s a decent contributor in all categories, although I wouldn’t go this way if your team lacks power. Still, Parra won’t kill you in any area. At Chase Field, he’ll get you a few homers. The Diamondbacks lineup is good enough to help him, and he’s a .282 career hitter who can steal a base. Again, he won’t stand out in a category like Carter, but he won’t be a drain anywhere.

 

The Bad

Parra may not be available to you. He’s available in just under half of the leagues out there.

Also, the situation in Arizona is crowded. Right now, there are at-bats for him in Arizona but as they return to health, look for that to change a little bit. Parra’s never played more than 141 games in a season, and there’s generally a reason for that. His defensive skills make Parra a good baseball player, but they do little to help fantasy teams.

If Stanton is out a month and you don’t need the power, Parra should be fine. But if you need someone to step in through the summer, you might need to look elsewhere.

 

Cody Ross – Arizona Diamondbacks

The Good

Ross missed some of the early part of the season, but has been a mainstay in the Arizona lineup since returning. He’s yet to find his power stroke, but that will eventually come. Remember, Cody Ross is one of baseball’s ultimate streak hitters. When the power comes, it will likely come in bunches.

But even without power, Ross has done a good job getting hits and driving in runs in the early part of the year. If Stanton’s injury is relatively short term and Ross gets hot in that period, you may not miss a thing. He’s not going to produce like Giancarlo all year, but Ross can get hot with the best of them.

 

The Bad

All of the negatives about Arizona’s outfield situation apply to Ross, too. They signed him in the offseason and it’s hard to imagine they did that without thinking about getting him significant at-bats, but there will come a time when Ross will be competing with other capable players. Unlike last year in Boston, there is no DH to fall back on.

Also, being a streak hitter is a wild card. If he’s hot while Stanton’s out, you may not miss much. But if he’s cold while Stanton’s out, you’d almost be better off leaving the position empty.

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