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How Good Can Nolan Arenado be at Coors Field?

Michael Dixon —  April 28, 2013 — Leave a comment
The dimensions of Coors Field will be friendly to Nolan Arenado. Photo courtesy of Max and Dee Stark.

The dimensions of Coors Field will be friendly to Nolan Arenado.
Photo courtesy of Max and Dee Stark.

The Colorado Rockies made a move over the weekend that has some nice fantasy implications. They Designated Chris Nelson for Assignment, and called up prospect Nolan Arenado.

I was trying to find the right words for this when I stumbled across what Andy Behrens of Yahoo Sports said.

You want this guy. Arenado’s promotion is without question an actionable event for fantasy owners.

I’m going to go ahead and co-sign that one.

In his debut with the Rockies, Arenado hit seventh, went 0-for-3 with a walk. But his body of work in the minor leagues is pretty exceptional. Take a look for yourself (all stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, page linked above).

Year Team  Level GP R HR RBI SB AVG/OBP/SLG
2009 Casper Ghosts Rk 54 28 2 22 5 .300/.351/.404
2010 Asheville Tourists A 92 45 12 65 1 .308/.338/.520
2011 Modesto Nuts A+ 134 82 20 122 2 .298/.349/.487
2012 Tulsa Drillers AA 134 55 12 56 0 .285/.337/.428
2013 Colorado Springs Sky Sox AAA 18 14 3 21 0 .364/.392/.667

That’s pretty dang good, and it doesn’t stop just at the good numbers. The numbers are also pretty consistent. Yes, he’s been phenomenal in 2013 but even if he was going to level out to his previous Minor League numbers, what was he going to level out to? At worst, probably a .285 hitter with power.

There’s something else that needs to be mentioned here, and it’s not shown in the numbers above. While he strike out increasingly more each year in the minors, Arenado never struck out more than 60 times. He struck out 58 times in 134 games in 2012. That rate translates to about 70 strikeouts over 162 games.

Now, you have to expect that rate to increase when he’s facing Major League pitching, but it would have to increase an awful lot for him to be at 100 strikeouts.

Now, I’m of two minds about strikeouts. At times, I think they’re a little overrated. I understand that with men on base, you don’t want to strike out, but remember that even the best hitters make an out three out of 10 times. So, if you take 600 at-bats in a given year and hit .300, you’ll record 180 hits, meaning you’ll get out 420 times. Does it really matter how all of the outs are recorded?

Reggie Jackson struck out 2,597 times in his career. Over 162 games, he averaged 567 at-bats. So, he struck out for more than the equivalent of four-and-a-half seasons worth of at-bats. Is anyone really going to sit back and nitpick his career? Heck even Mickey Mantle, a former batting champ, struck out for more than three season’s worth of at-bats, and that’s even rounding up all of his seasons to 162 (remember, his early career came in 154 game seasons). Again, are we really going to pick The Commerce Comet apart?

That’s all true, but there are a few problems with my own argument. One, not everyone is Mickey Mantle or Reggie Jackson. Two, when you play your home games at Coors Field, making contact is awfully important.

Year in and year out, Coors Field is the best hitter’s park in the league. It’s not even close. Other parks are favorable to hitters because of small dimensions, notably in the gaps. Coors is tough because the ball carries so well, despite the fact that it’s one of the biggest stadiums in the league. The altitude helps the ball fly out and outfielders are left with a choice. Either play back to cut off the big gaps, therefore being vulnerable to bloop hits. Or, play in to cut the cheap hits off, and make the gaps vulnerable. Throw in the fact that the field is usually trimmed low, so the ball gets through the infield quicker, and the dirt is generally compacted, so the ball bounces hard, and you have a very difficult park to pitch in.

Okay, if you’ve been following baseball since 1995, you know that. I didn’t say anything in the above paragraph that’s never been said hundreds of times.

But more than any stadium in the league, if you’re hitting at Coors Field, making contact is a huge deal. If you hit the ball, you have a lot of things working in your favor that will make the ball find a hole in the defense. To show the advantages of Coors Field, I’d like to show you who the Rockies’ leading hitter has been every year since Coors Field opened in 1995, and contrast it with the Yankees’ leading hitter. Just a reminder, the Yankees are almost always one of the best offensive teams in the league, and have made the playoffs every year in this window, with the exception of 2008.

Year Rockies Leading Hitter AVG Yankees Leading Hitter AVG
1995 Dante Bichette .340 Wade Boggs .324
1996 Ellis Burks .344 Mariano Duncan .340
1997 Larry Walker .366 Bernie Williams .328
1998 Larry Walker .363 Bernie Williams .339
1999 Larry Walker .379 Derek Jeter .349
2000 Todd Helton .372 Derek Jeter .339
2001 Larry Walker .350 Derek Jeter .311
2002 Larry Walker .338 Bernie Williams .333
2003 Todd Helton .358 Derek Jeter .324
2004 Todd Helton .347 Hideki Matsui .298
2005 Todd Helton .320 Alex Rodriguez .321
2006 Garrett Atkins .329 Derek Jeter .343
2007 Matt Holliday .340 Jorge Posada .338
2008 Matt Holliday .321 Johnny Damon .303
2009 Todd Helton .325 Derek Jeter .334
2010 Carlos Gonzalez .336 Robinson Cano .319
2011 Troy Tulowitzki .302 Robinson Cano .302
2012 Carlos Gonzalez .303 Derek Jeter .316


So even though the Yankees are generally much better than the Rockies, Colorado’s leading hitter generally hits for a far higher average than New York’s.

Getting back to Arenado, what does this all mean? It means that he doesn’t strike out a lot, he’s a good hitter, and in a good hitting environment.

I’d get out there and grab him on your fantasy team. Even if you have an elite third baseman and don’t need utility/corner infield help, him being on your team will keep him from someone else. In keeper/dynasty leagues, there is always a push for young players, so Arenado will have a lot of trade value.

There are plenty of things you can do with him, but they all start with adding Arenado to your roster. I wouldn’t waste time in doing just that.

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Fantasy Baseball Slumpers: Josh Reddick

Michael Dixon —  April 24, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Whether your focus is on fantasy baseball or baseball, you’re going to hear something like this an awful lot: It’s a long season. It’s not a sprint. Don’t react too strongly to what happens in April.

If you’re an A’s fan, you’ve seen a few of the top players struggle or get injured in the season’s first month. Still, you can be encouraged, as despite all of that, the A’s have had a fine month and remain well within striking distance of the Rangers in the AL West. But if you’re a fantasy player and were hoping on some big production from Josh Reddick, you’re probably sitting a little uneasy right now.

Why? Well, take a look at his numbers (through Tuesday, April 23).

PA AB H BB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP
70 61 10 7 8 1 12 5 .164 .257

Ironically, the five steals is well above anything he’s ever done before, as his career high is 11, which came in 2012. But aside from those steals, that’s a pretty ugly statline. It gets even worse when you look at his second half from last season.

PA AB H BB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP
316 297 64 17 33 12 42 3 .215 .256 

Now, combining the second half of last year with 2013 so far:

PA AB H BB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP
386 358 74 24 41 13 54 8 .207  .257 

You can dismiss 2013′s struggles as being early in the season. But when you add that with the second half of 2012, you’re looking at 90 games, which is not a terribly small sample size. It doesn’t stop there. Remember, even in a strong first half of 2012, Reddick’s slash stats were.268/.348/.532. Heck, even in the minors, Reddick’s slash stats were .278/.332/.500. At this point of his career, his offensive skills revolve largely around power. So, when he’s struggling, the slash stats are really ugly.

Unfortunately, it gets a little worse as now, the A’s have added yet another outfielder in Casper Wells.

So, not even counting Brandon Moss, the Oakland outfield currently has Reddick, Chris Young, Seth Smith, Coco Crisp, and Casper Wells vying for three spots in the batting order — four counting the designated hitter. When Yoenis Cespedes returns, that will be six guys vying for four spots, and Cespedes will be in the order every day when he’s healthy.

Now, this isn’t to say that Reddick will fall into a straight platoon situation. He’s arguably the best right fielder in the game and Oakland is a team that relies a lot on it’s pitching and defense. But with that many outfielders on the roster, the A’s had no reason to acquire Casper Wells. It’s not like Cespedes’ injury is long term as according to Jane Lee of MLB.com, he could be back as early as this weekend. Granted, he’s been a little injury prone in his career so Wells could be an insurance policy, but I can’t think that the A’s would have acquired him unless they were planning on getting him some at-bats.

Many of those at-bats will come at the expense of Reddick. While Reddick may be the best right field glove in the game, Wells is not a slouch in that department. Obviously if Reddick loses at-bats, his counted stats will go down.

Again, I’m not predicting a straight platoon, but this will hurt his at-bats. Reddick’s already been dropped in the Oakland order, which will hurt pretty much all stats. If I was an owner of Reddick, I’d give him until Cespedes returns to the lineup at the latest. If he hasn’t turned it around in that time, look for another outfielder, as the numbers won’t be getting any better.

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of April 22

Michael Dixon —  April 22, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

In 2012, Dixon’s Picks was not only something I did every week, but I really enjoyed it. So, here we are again.

You don’t win a fantasy baseball league without taking chances. Some of those are season-long chances, other are short-term ones, like, should I pick this waiver wire pitcher up for a few starts, or not?

The simple word for all of that is streaming. It’s a practice that some people hate, but many use, which is why I write these every week.

Who’s eligible, who’s not?. Well, anyone available in more than half of ESPN leagues (ESPN is my primary fantasy baseball site) is eligible. For the most part, these are guys who are scheduled to pitch twice during the week and for the benefit of you head-to-head guys, this will run every Monday. We all know that Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw won’t be claimed on any waiver wires. These guys won’t be that good for the length of the season, but they’re in situations with favorable matchups. Now, you ultimately decide whether or not these guys come to your team, but I’d suggest giving these guys a look.

Of course, I’m dealing with probable starts. Things like weather delays and injuries sometimes change that, let’s just hope it doesn’t happen too much.

Let’s get 2013′s first Dixon’s Picks underway…

 

Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins – Probable Starts: Monday at Minnesota Twins, Sunday vs. Chicago Cubs

Obviously, if you claim a Marlins’ player, you know that the run support will be thin, so they won’t exactly be bankable for wins. But they’ve had some solid pitching performances through the year, and Ricky Nolasco has been rock solid. Take a look at what he’s done through the first four starts of the year.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
23.1 6 23 6 15 0-2 3.86 1.24

That’s two out of four quality starts, and none of the outings were particularly bad. Remember, this early in the season, it doesn’t take much more than a bad inning or two to really inflate things like ERA and WHIP. So, he’s pitching well and getting to pitch at Target Field & Marlins Park against a middle of the road offense (Twins), and a struggling one (Cubs). Thus far, he’s gone twice against a strong Nationals team, and once against the Mets and Phillies.

Now, the downfall for Nolasco is that he’s not a high strikeout guy. But pitching against these hitters in these parks, contact shouldn’t be a huge problem. Yes, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, and even Alfonso Soriano are fine hitters, but nobody else really strikes fear into any pitcher. I’d fully expect two quality starts this week from the Marlins’ top guy.

Nolasco’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 5 12 4 10 1-0 3.46 1.23

 

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox - Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Cleveland Indians, Sunday vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Do you like gambling? If you do, then Jose Quintana is a guy that you should give a really strong look at this week. Yes, the Indians and Rays have some capable hitters on their rosters but right now, those are scuffling offenses and Quintana is pitching incredibly well.

We also know that Quintana is capable of keeping runners from crossing home plate when he is on. Take a look at his first three months of 2012 (he didn’t debut until May).

  • May: 1.76 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
  • June: 2.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
  • July: 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Perhaps a bit lucky with that June ERA, but also unlucky in July.

The point of all of that is that over his last two starts, Quintana has been pretty hot. Take a look at the numbers.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13.2 0 6 2 14 1-0 0.00 0.44

One of those games was a seven-inning, one-hit, no walk performance against the Indians. Another was a similarly dominant performance against the Blue Jays.

Now, I am not projecting that Quintana will continue at this pace for the season or even the week, but he can be worse than that and still pretty dang good. Those numbers are just gaudy. Right now, I don’t see Cleveland or Tampa halting that in a serious way. But going beyond this week a little bit, Quintana is 24, was a dominant pitcher in the minors and was solid in 2012 as a rookie. He’s available in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues. If you have a scuffling pitching staff or have one of many guys who have been hurt, Quintana might be a valuable addition beyond this week.

Quintana’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 4 12 4 11 1-0 2.57 1.14

 

Carlos Villanueva, Chicago Cubs - Probable Starts: Tuesday at Cincinnati Reds, Sunday at. Miami Marlins

I’d like to show you how Carlos Villanueva has done thus far in 2013, but let’s look at this start-by-start.

Opponent IP  ER H BB K ERA WHIP Dec.
at Atlanta 6.2 1 6 2 6 1.35 1.12 ND
vs. San Francisco 7.1 0 3 1 3 0.00 0.55 ND
vs. Texas 7 2 4 1 6 2.57 0.71 W
Total 21 3 13 4 15 1.29 0.81 1-0

Okay, Major League Baseball insists that teams who qualify for the Wild Card play-in game are playoff teams, so we’re going to go with that right now. All three of those teams made the playoffs in 2012. I make that point and I showed the start-by-start totals because I’m sure many of you are looking at that first opponent, the Cincinnati Reds, as a team that doesn’t exactly jump out as a classic stream opponent. With Shin Soo-Choo, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce, they’re one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, especially at home. Under normal circumstances, this is not a team you’d stream against.

But Villanueva has had three brilliant outings against very capable lineups this year, including a scorching Atlanta lineup.

I’d also point out that if you really don’t want to gamble, you could leave Villanueva on the bench on Tuesday, and pitch him over the weekend against the Miami Giancarlo’s Marlins. Now, you may see that and realize that I also advised Nolasco for that game. Obviously, if you need two wins on Sunday, that’s not going to work. But I would expect a low-scoring affair there and would have no problem throwing opposing pitchers, even if I can’t pick up more than one win.

Like Quintana, VIllanueva has a history of getting really hot. Now, his career is a little longer and while he’s not a bad pitcher, he’s not a great one. But when he’s hot, you want him on your team. Right now, he’s hot. You’ll certainly want him on your team when he’s facing the Marlins.

Now, I think Villanueva will do fine against the Reds this week, but I do understand if many of you don’t want to start him against Cincinnati. So, instead of just a total projection, I’ll give you a start-by-start one.

Villanueva’s Projections for the Week

  IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
at Cincinnati 6  3  6  2 4 ND 4.50 1.33 
at Miami 8 0 4 1 7 W 0.00 0.63 
Total 14 3 10 3 11 1-0 1.93 0.93 

 

 

 

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Replacing Injured Stars: Look Left on the Platoon

Michael Dixon —  April 18, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

I don’t know about you, but it seems to me like 2013 has been the year of the injury so far. Johnny Cueto, Jered Weaver, Zack Greinke, all out for a bit. On Monday, you’ll see the first 2013 installment of Dixon’s Picks, waiver wire pitchers who will help you in the short term, especially for that week. You’ll actually see that every Monday for the rest of the season.

But today, we’re going to try try to find out how to replace Yoenis Cespedes, Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez, and every other bat that seems to be on the shelf now.

Now, you can try for a young gun that your whole league has missed out on. But honestly, most young players worth having are probably on a roster already, or in the minor leagues. You can try to play guys on hot streaks but honestly, that’s going to have limited success. You don’t realize most hot streaks are even happening until the middle of them, and they may be just about wrapping up at that point. You can go for high steal guys, who are a threat to maybe score a lot of runs or hit .300 (Denard Span, Juan Pierre), but that’s probably only a good idea if you see your team needing steals. At this point, the season is too young to make that call.

Right now, we’re trying to fill the stat sheet as much as possible. You can do that with platoon guys, specifically the left-handed hitters in the platoon. To start, let’s take a look at some numbers of different left-handed hitters with different skills.

We’ll start with Barry Bonds, who one way or another, has more home runs than anyone in the history of the game.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 535  .303 .458 .626
vs. LHP 227 .289 .417 .569

Obviously Bonds was never a platoon player, nor was he ever available on any fantasy baseball waiver wires. But we’ll use him as a bit of a control, if you will. The slash stats are pretty close, while just over 70 percent of his career home runs came against right-handed pitching.

Now, let’s look at Josh Hamilton. Obviously, Hamilton isn’t going to be available in any fantasy leagues, either. He’s not the kind of player Bonds was, but we’ll just consider this level two of our tier, and I promise, this is going somewhere.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 120 .313 .378 .578
vs. LHP 43 .277 .324 .475

The slash stats are a bit more lopsided than Bonds. But those 120 homers make up 74 percent of his career total.

Two more guys to show. The first will be Raul Ibanez, who’s pretty much a platoon guy now and was never at Hamilton’s level as an overall hitter. But in his best days, he was an everyday guy.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 218 .283 .348 .488
vs. LHP 55 .262 .315 .419

That is just under 80 percent of Ibanez’s career home runs against right-handed pitchers. A higher percentage than Bonds and Hamilton, for sure. Those two are everyday players and the discrepancy there can be chalked up to there being more right-handed pitchers than left-handed. With Ibanez, it’s not so simple.

With Seth Smith of the A’s, who Nash recently talked about as a potential Yoenis Cespedes replacement, it’s a little more difficult.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 59  .284 .362 .504
vs. LHP 7 .205 .277 .332

That’s 89 percent of his career total. That’s 19 percent more than Bonds, about 15 more than Hamilton, and 9 more than Ibanez.

Here’s the thing about those guys, though. If you’re looking to replace a player who’s hit the DL, you don’t need a star like Bonds or Hamilton in his prime, nor do you even Ibanez in his best years. All of those guys would probably not be available. Seth Smith, is available in nearly every league, and will absolutely do if you’ve had an outfielder go down.

Yes, I know, those AVG/OBP/SLG splits are just not close, but they don’t need to be. Yes, Smith can’t left-handed pitching, but he doesn’t face lefties that often. There are a few reasons for that.

  1. Again, there are more right-handed pitchers than left-handed counterparts. If you were to average .284 and .205, you’d get a sub-.250 hitter. But Smith is a .270 hitter. Because again, there are more right-handed pitchers than left-handed and…
  2. Smith rarely faces left-handed pitching.

The left-sided side of a platoon works so well because platoon left-handed bats generally don’t bat against lefties, so you don’t need to worry about the slash splits as much. Since they do get more at-bats, their slash stats will impact your team more than a lefty. While a 30-for-100 and 3-for-10 hitter both bat .300, the guy with more at-bats helps your team’s average much more. Simple, I know, but worth repeating.

Smith is a pretty drastic case, but certainly not the only platoon guy who can help you out short term. Todd Helton is no longer the player he once way, but can still do damage against right-handed arms, especially in Coors Field. Carlos Pena (who Will recently talked at length on) can hit lefties is another guy who can still do damage.

Something else simple but worth saying: Hitters who get more at-bats will have better counted stats. So again, you don’t want the right-handed side of the platoon, but the lefties will do well as a short-term fix.

Now, if a star guy is down for the year, a platoon guy probably won’t work too well. In that case, your best chance at remaining competitive is a trade. But in a normal 2-4 week DL stint, go with the lefties. They’re more than likely your best chance at success.

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Fantasy Baseball: What to do with Struggling Aces

Michael Dixon —  April 17, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.

Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.

I can’t imagine that many (if any) fantasy baseball players haven’t been a little frustrated with pitching so far. Jered Weaver and Zack Greinke are both out for a few months, and some of the game’s best pitchers have some pretty ugly numbers in the early going.

But I’m not worried about all of them. Matt Cain has had only one bad outing, and Cole Hamels is just too good to pitch this poorly. They’ll be some of the league’s best pitchers by season’s end.

But these four guys have all experienced some struggles this year. In some cases, there was a warning. In others, it’s been pretty surprising. But in all cases, the numbers have been bad. So let’s take a look at some big name, top of the rotation guys who have struggled early in 2013 and figure out just what to do with them.

 

R.A. Dickey

Fans of R.A. Dickey would probably point out his strong game over the weekend against the Royals and say that he’s turned a corner. From my standpoint, I almost would have rather that he had a bad game in Kansas City, because it again brings one question to my mind. How well will the knuckleball work in a dome?

I have made this point before, but when you think of some of the most successful knuckleball pitchers in the game’s history, nearly all of them made their home in outdoor stadiums. Joe Niekro spent much of his prime with the Astros, but the Astrodome was one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball history and he was a contact pitcher who used that to his advantage.

Dickey had two rough outings at Rogers Centre before having a good game at Kauffman Stadium. But I still wonder how well the knuckleball is going to work against hitters who know it’s coming and know it won’t dance around in the wind. I’ll be keeping a close eye on his start on Thursday in Toronto against the White Sox. A bad outing there will be hard to ignore.

Even if Dickey can’t pitch well at home, I’d still keep him on your roster, I’d just be very careful about starting him all the time. Also, if you can work a trade out with a guy who favors big names, look into that.

 

Roy Halladay

Here’s another guy who showed some signs of coming out of a slump, throwing eight strong innings on Sunday. But as is the case with Dickey, I can’t exactly say that the old Roy Halladay is back based on Sunday alone.

Halladay’s performance came against the Marlins, who are perhaps the worst offensive team in the league and by the time the season is over, may be one of the worst in baseball history. Oh, and Giancarlo Stanton wasn’t in the lineup. The 3-5 hitters on Sunday were Placido Polanco, Greg Dobbs, and Justin Ruggiano.

Having looked at Halladay’s first two starts of the year, he just doesn’t look healthy. Doc is an old school guy and doesn’t strike me as the type who will tell anyone that he’s hurt, and Charlie Manuel doesn’t come off as a guy who will press the issue with a veteran like Halladay, but it doesn’t look like all is well with Halladay.

We can pretty well say that Doc can handle the weaker teams, especially in pitcher’s parks like Miami. If you have him and he has one of those outings, I’d pitch him confidently. But against a team with some pop, I’d be really careful until he shows that he can handle those lineups. Again, like Dickey, don’t be afraid to look for a trade with guys who favor the big names and will wait for 2011′s Halladay to show up, because that’s not going to happen.

 

Tim Lincecum

I don’t want to be accused of being a homer here, but I still believe in Tim Lincecum, though my faith is dwindling a bit. After a really rough but ultimately successful first start of the season against the Dodgers, Lincecum had a rough game against both the Rockies and Cubs, allowing 10 earned runs over 11 combined innings. Here’s the thing about that, though. One inning did him in in each start, and it was an early inning both times.

So what does that mean? Well, it means progress is being made from 2012, but he’s still got some serious work to do to be a valuable fantasy arm.

We’ll know a lot more after his next start, which is a home game against the Padres. The Padres are a very poor lineup, and will be without Carlos Quentin. Also, it’s a 6:05 local time start, which will make the early innings very hard on hitters with the shadows. Incidentally, his next start after that will also be against the Padres, but in San Diego, another pitcher’s park. Quentin will be back by then, but the Padres have little else to offer.

If Lincecum hasn’t shown that he can be pretty much dominant against bad offenses, I’d look to move him. But if he has, I’d also point out that Lincecum has a habit of pitching much better after the first month of the year. Even last year, he had a much better second half. I wouldn’t be too patient, but I’d let him get through two starts against the Padres before considering moving him.

 

Jarrod Parker

It’s hard to be positive here, and fantasy owners agree. Parker was at one time owned in nearly every league and now, just over two weeks into the season, he’s owned in less than half.

Unlike the other three, Jarrod Parker doesn’t have much of a track record. He had a good 2012, but that’s it. His career prior to 2012 consisted of one outing. What’s happening to Parker right now screams of a sophomore slump

The road doesn’t get any easier for Parker. His next outing is against the Rays in Tampa, which could go either way. Tampa is a very talented team, but they’re struggling. At the very least, I’d make Parker a spot starter. Realistically, I’d cut him (teammate A.J. Griffin is off to a sparkling start and is still available in most leagues).

With Dickey, Halladay, and Lincecum, if you cut them now and they turn around, chances are that you won’t get them back. With Parker, it’s much more realistic. The A’s are a small market team and people aren’t going to race out to snatch him from free agency. So, I’d cut him. If you have a deep bench, I might just leave him on the bench, but sophomore slumps are a big part of baseball, and Parker seems to be suffering through one in a big way right now.

 

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Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Dealing With Elite Players

Michael Dixon —  April 16, 2013 — 7 Comments

Writer’s Note: Monday was obviously a really strange and sad day for everyone. What happened in Boston was an absolute tragedy, and our thoughts and prayers are with everyone there. Certainly they go out to those who had loved ones killed or wounded, but everyone who experienced that is in our thoughts and prayers. On a personal note, some very good friends of mine live in Boston and while I didn’t know this at the time, my uncle’s wife was actually running in the Boston Marathon. Fortunately for me, everyone that I know there came away physically unscathed. If anyone who wasn’t so fortunate is reading this (unlikely, I know), please know that everyone involved with this site is sending you and your loved ones nothing but our best wishes. 

Having said that, different people deal with tragedies in different ways. Some people block things like sports (and fantasy sports) from their lives, and I completely understand and respect that. As much as we all love sports, they do need to be placed in their proper perspective at times, and this is certainly one of them.

But personally, I’ve always tried to get through days like this by allowing myself to focus on other things. We at the site know that there are a lot of people out there who do things similarly. So we’re going to keep writing and posting stuff for you, today even more than most.

If today is your first exposure to our site, welcome aboard. Likewise, if you’re familiar with us, welcome back. As always, feel free to comment in any way that you see fit and please look back at some of our posts from previous days.

Again, everyone in Boston is in our thoughts and prayers. It’s not only one of the best sport’s towns in the country, but also one of the best cities period. I’ve had the chance to visit my friends there a few times since they moved there a few years ago, and seeing how well Bostonians rushed to help one another was incredible, but not at all surprising. 

Thank you from all of us.

 

 

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Nash, Clave, and I are all in a league together. A few of us are pretty experienced, while most of the players started fantasy baseball in 2011 or 2012. One guy who started in 2012 had a phenomenal year a season ago, finishing in fourth place, beating some pretty experienced players along the way, including one of us — I won’t say who, but his name rhymes with Cash. Anyway, this guy was in realistic contention for the title until the season’s last few weeks. The three of us were impressed.

Well, that same guy let some of his inexperience show and made a really bad trade over the weekend. The kind of trade that once he made it, he instantly regretted it (saying so himself), and probably hoped it would get vetoed. No such luck. Take a look for yourself.

The intricacies of that league actually make that trade a little worse than it looks (hard to believe, I know). But this does bring up something that happens a lot.

If you removed Kendrick, Middlebrooks, Cabrera, and Wilson from that trade, I still would not have taken that move. Hosmer, Kipnis, Sandoval, and Darvish are good players, but they’re not Fielder. Fielder is an elite player, and those aren’t replaced by spare parts, even if they are very good.

Let’s detour a little bit and talk about the NBA. Think about some of the recent NBA champions.While it takes more than one great player for a team to win a championship, how many championship teams have their been who won without a Top-10 (or better) player? Not many. You probably have to go back to the 2004 Pistons to find the last one, and more than 20 years before that. It’s not a common occurrence  You need a good team, but you also need a star to make up for a lot of the team’s shortcomings. 

Fantasy baseball is the exact same way. With pitchers, you can focus a little bit more on quantity, although Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw make up for a lot, you can win a fantasy championship without an elite arm, you just have to have several good ones. But winning a championship, especially in a roto league, without an elite hitter? I don’t like your chances. Head-to-head is a little different, especially if you’re good at streaming, but the overall point doesn’t change much.

Now, there are some players who are genuine contributors in all categories, like Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Andrew McCutchen. But using some 2012 stats, I want to show you guys something using Miguel Cabrera as an example. Just a reminder, I’d like to show all of you guys what Miggy did in the five standard offensive categories used in fantasy baseball.

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
205/622  109 44 139 4 .330

In 2012, Clave, Nash, and I decided to run a standard league with us and seven readers. For those of you unfamiliar, a standard league uses runs, home runs, RBI, SB, and batting average, with 13 active offensive spots (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT). These were the total numbers of the league leaders in each of the five categories.

R HR RBI SB AVG
1127 324 1139 244 .277

Now, we talk a lot about setting goals and generally speaking, trying to be third in each category is a goal. But for a moment, let’s say you were shooting for the top spot in each offensive category. These are the average numbers that you would need from each player to do that in 2012 (rounding up in every case):

R HR RBI SB AVG
87 25 88 19 .277

Now, go back and look at Cabrera’s numbers. You are well ahead of pace in four of the five categories. Now, let’s have a gander at the 2012 numbers of Rajai Davis who is generally speaking, pretty poor in all categories other than stolen bases.

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
115/447 64 8 43 46 .257

And because I want to be a nice guy, I am going to go ahead and combine those numbers for you.

Total:

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
320/1069 173 52 182 50 .299

On average

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
320/1069 87 26 91 25 .299

So, if you were starting with those two alone in 2012, you would be on (or above) pace to win every single offensive category. Now, remember that Davis is at best a late-round pick, so you could have filled your roster with much better players before drafting or signing Davis for the steals.

That’s what a superstar player does. And while it’s true that a lot of good players minus Miggy can put up good numbers, you can’t depend on them like you can with Cabrera. If you’re going with good players, you’re going to have one or two that disappoint every year, even if only slightly. Miggy’s an elite player and would anyone be remotely surprised if he repeated his 2012 stats in 2013? Even if he didn’t, how much of a drop is he going to have? With elite hitters, you have an elite worst case scenario, and that’s just hard to overcome.

Now, if you have an elite hitter, he’s going to be coveted. You’ve probably received trade offers for them and if not, you’re going to throughout the year. So, here’s the question. Who are the elite hitters, and what do you do if you receive an offer for them? Well, here’s part one of that question.

Dixon’s Elite Hitters for 2013

  1. Ryan Braun
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Mike Trout
  4. Robinson Cano
  5. Andrew McCutchen
  6. Matt Kemp
  7. Albert Pujols
  8. Carlos Gonzalez
  9. Joey Votto
  10. Prince Fielder

With some arm twisting, I might move that order around a little bit and on a good day, I could probably be talked in to Justin Upton and Buster Posey, but that’s it. I can’t count on a full season of dominant production from any other hitter in the league.

So then, here’s part 2. What do you do if you receive a trade offer for them?

The answer is really quite simple. If you have one of those players and the trade would not involve you receiving another in return, it’s a very easy decline. Those guys will make up for a lot of deficiencies on your team and will do so reliably.

The Heat wouldn’t trade LeBron James for two very good players and the same logic applies in fantasy baseball. Yes, you need a balanced team to win a championship, but you won’t find that balance without at least one elite hitter. If you get one, don’t let him go unless you get one back, you will lose the trade and in turn, someone else will win the league.

In Drafting, Miscellany, Trades , , , ,
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Early Season Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: A.J. Griffin

Michael Dixon —  April 15, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

If your understanding of the A’s organization under Billy Beane goes beyond the movie Moneyball, you know that they consistently field excellent pitching rotations. Even in some of the team’s bad years over the last decade, their pitching rotations have been as deep as any in the American League, no exceptions. One pitcher who’s still available to most fantasy players is A.J. Griffin and if he’s available to you, get out there and grab him.

Obviously, fantasy baseball is all about the numbers, so take a look at what Griffin has done thus far in 2013.

IP W-L ER H BB K ERA WHIP
14 2-0 3 12 3 5 1.93 1.07

Pretty good start. Now, I want to hit the one thing would probably look at as a negative first, that being the lack of strikeouts.

The two starts were against the Mariners and Angels. That means he was facing a Michael Morse, who was off to a torrid start, and then the likes of Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton (I know he’s struggling, but still a dangerous hitter). If you want to say that the lack of strikeouts indicates luck, go ahead, but I’d actually suggest great maturity.

Griffin is 25, and his Minor League Track record suggests that he’s more than capable of striking hitters out with regularity. But, do you know what happens when you strike a lot of hitters out? You generally throw a lot of pitches (at least three per K), and frequently walk a lot of hitters. That leads to a line that looks something like this.

  • 5 innings pitched, 1 earned run, 4 hits, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts, 110 pitches thrown. 

That’s an ugly WHIP (1.60), going only five innings means it’s hard to pick up a win, and that one earned run can easily turn into three or four. Three or four runs allowed looks a lot uglier on the ERA over five innings than six or seven.

It takes most 25 year-olds with strikeout stuff to learn that lesson. The fact that in two starts, Griffin has put up solid numbers while striking out very few hitters tells me that he knows how to use the park. Granted, his two starts have been in pitcher’s parks (Oakland and Anaheim), but the aforementioned Minor League Track Record tells me that he’ll be fine when the A’s go to some more hitter-friendly surroundings. When he’s facing good hitters and they’re hitting the ball but still not doing anything of note, it tells me that you’re looking at a good pitcher.

But that’s not the only thing that I like about Griffin and his fantasy prospects this year. Let’s take a look at those things.

 

His Home Stadium

In 2012, the A’s had 10 pitchers start games for them, with eight of them finishing the season with an ERA under 4.00. Including relievers, 16 pitchers threw 35 or more innings for the Athletics in 2012, and 15 had an ERA under 4.00. A part of the reason is that they’re good pitchers, as the A’s scout incredibly well. But playing in one of the best pitcher’s parks in Major League Baseball contributes greatly to their success.

When half of your starts are in Oakland, you can get away with an awful lot. Part of the reason is that there are no cheap homers in Oakland’s park. Another reason is that aside from a few select day games, the Bay Area teams almost never play home games in hot weather. When pitchers don’t have to experience a pounding heat through the summer, they’re able to stay fresh longer. The Oakland Coliseum has always been good for pitchers, so is AT&T Park, and so was Candlestick. Yes, those are all bigger parks, but the Bay Area weather and wind contributes a lot to that.

While it may not work out exactly this way, Griffin will get half of his starts in Oakland this year. With that, it’s hard to see him not maintaining good numbers all year. Granted, he probably won’t win every start with a 1.93/1.07 ERA/WHIP, but if nothing else, Oakland will numbers will be pretty steady.

 

His Team

I’ll be conservative here and say that the A’s have a top-five bullpen in the game. In reality, it may well be the best when you go person for person. So, when their starters leave a game with the lead, there’s a pretty good chance they’ll finish said game with a win.

Additionally, the A’s were one of baseball’s best teams in 2012 and are off to a good start in 2013. Yes, the injury to Yoenis Cespedes may slow their roll a little bit, but I can’t imagine that this won’t be a winning team with room to spare by season’s end. What does that mean? Well, again, he’ll have a chance to win plenty of games.

 

Overall

Get out there and sign Griffin right now. I’d understand if you weren’t confident enough with him to start him against some of the American League’s best lineups, but there are only a few that I’d think about benching him against.

Griffin has been a strong pitcher throughout his professional career, and had good overall numbers last year with the A’s. In Spring Training, Griffin was involved in a battle for his spot in the rotation, but he’s firmly entrenched as a starter now, even in a pitching-rich organization. Not only did he win a spot, but he’s pitching great at the beginning of the year, showing that he’s overcome the struggles he had at the end of last season.

Look for more strong performances from Griffin going forward.

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What to Make of R.A. Dickey’s Struggles

Michael Dixon —  April 10, 2013 — Leave a comment
The R.A. Dickey we've seen in 2013 hasn't resembled the Cy Young award winner seen here in 2012. Photo courtesy of Paul Hadsall

The R.A. Dickey we’ve seen in 2013 hasn’t resembled the Cy Young award winner seen here in 2012.
Photo courtesy of Paul Hadsall.

I think it’s safe to say that this was not the start to his Blue Jays’ career that R.A. Dickey had in mind. In addition to being 0-2, take a look at his stats through the season’s first two starts.

IP H BB ER K ERA WHIP
vs. Indians 6 5 4 3 4 4.50 1.50
vs. Red Sox 4.2 10 2 7 5 13.5 2.57
Total 10.2 15 6 10 9 8.44 1.97

Now, as Clave pointed out, Dickey was not the only ace to struggle this season. Indeed, Dickey joined Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, and Jered Weaver as No. 1 starters to put up some ugly numbers in their second start of the year.

Still, with the possible exception of Weaver, who was actually injured in his bad outing, Dickey’s stands out a little bit more than the others. There are a few reasons why, and most of them deal with the knuckleball. So, let’s start with the few that don’t.

 

Age

Father time is undefeated. At some point, everyone realizes that they just physically can’t do what they used to do with no problem. There’s no place where this is on display more than in sports, where just about everyone over 30 is either on the downhill slide, or rapidly approaching it. Well, Dickey is 38.

Granted, between 2010 and 2012, he put up an ERA/WHIP of 2.95/1.15, but his numbers before that were 5.43/1.57. He certainly found a nice groove in his last few years with the Mets, but age hits fast sometimes. So, his early season struggles give you more of a reason to be concerned.

Expectations

Throughout his entire career, Dickey has played on one team that made the playoffs, the 2009 Twins. He was primarily a reliever on that team and in 64.1 innings, had an ERA of 4.62 with a WHIP if 1.62.

Not only is that the only playoff team he’s ever played on, that’s the only team he’s ever been a part of that had any expectations. None of the Rangers teams that he played on were realistic contenders, nor were the Mariners his one year there. While pitching in New York always brings a heavy spotlight, the Mets were not even close to a contender in any of his three years there.

Now, while the Blue Jays haven’t made the playoffs since 1993, their offseason is certainly indicative of a team that has high expectations. The American League East isn’t as strong at the top as it has been in the past, and the Blue Jays loaded up with high priced, big name stars. Dickey, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, certainly qualifies.

Big expectations can take some getting used to. It’s certainly possible that Dickey is a bit more nervous, knowing that this is a team and fanbase that is realistically expecting to be playing ball into October.

 

Now, let’s take a look at everything that centers around Dickey’s bread and butter, the knuckleball.

  • One-Trick Pony

This isn’t anything that nobody knows about, but knuckleball pitchers tend to rely exclusively on that pitch. Most other top of the line starting pitchers have at least three pitches that they can count on. So, if they’re missing spots with the curveball, they’ll throw a change, or a fastball.

But if a knuckleball is off, the starter isn’t left with much. Sure, they have a “fastball,” but it’s nothing more than a batting practice pitch.

So, if he’s not hitting his spots with the knuckleball and the pitch isn’t sharp, there isn’t a player in Major League Baseball that won’t rope him. If a knuckleballer is off with that pitch, the best he can hope for is that the line drives go right defenders. That may work for an inning, it may even work for a start, but it won’t work for anything more than that.

The knuckleball isn’t necessarily a pitch that makes a lot of bats miss, but the contact shouldn’t be loud. Through two starts, it’s been loud.

  • New Catcher

I know that Dickey and J.P. Arencibia worked together in the offseason and at the WBC. But if you’re not used to catching the knuckleball, there’s nothing like it. This is why catchers use bigger gloves when catching it. It’s also why knuckleballers tend to throw to backup catchers (ie: Doug Mirabelli, not Jason Varitek, generally caught Tim Wakefield). Dickey threw to Arencibia in the opener, then to Henry Blanco in his secon start. Neither went especially well.

Now, both Arencibia and Blanco’s are professionals and I fully expect them to work hard with Dickey to understand the pitch, and the pitcher. But I am expecting a little bit more of an adjustment. Heck, regular pitchers often struggle early when they’re dealing with a new catcher. The struggles are going to be magnified with a knuckleballer.

  • Domed Stadium

This is something I didn’t hear too much talk about in the offseason, but it’s worth mentioning. A good knuckleball will have virtually no spin on it. From the time it leaves the pitcher’s hand to the time it hits the plate, it will have next to no rotation on it.

So, if you get even a little bit of wind, the ball will blow around like a feather. As you can probably figure out, that’s not exactly easy for a hitter to get a bat on.

Well, if Dickey’s in Toronto for half of his starts, the wind isn’t going to help him at all. This may not seem like a lot, but think about this. The spot on the bat that the ball hits for a home run is not even inches away from the spot it hits for a popup to the second baseman, or a weak groundout, or even a complete miss. Even a little bit of wind assistance can make a huge difference.

When you think about some of the most accomplished knuckleball pitchers of all-time, not many played in a domed stadium. Joe Niekro spent most of his prime in the Houston Astrodome, but struck out fewer than five hitters per nine innings as an Astro. He was relying on contact, and hoping his park helped him. The Astrodome was perhaps the most pitcher-friendly park of the modern era, so he had some success in doing that. Rogers Centre is significantly more live, I don’t like Dickey’s chances anywhere near as much there if he can’t miss bats.

 

What are we looking forward to?

Assuming he takes the ball every fifth day for the Blue Jays, let’s take a look at Dickey’s remaining starts in April.

  • at Kansas City Royals
  • vs. Chicago White Sox
  • at Baltimore Orioles
  • vs. Boston Red Sox

Two outdoors, two domes. Four opponents that can do some serious damage to pitchers. We’ll learn a lot from his outing against the Royals. They’re not a bargain, but that’s probably the most manageable lineup of that group. I also do like the fact that it’s outdoors, as we may learn how much (or little) of a factor the dome could be, as Dickey’s first two starts were indoors.

 

Overall outlook

I have Dickey in one of my leagues, and I really can’t say I’m that optimistic right now. The start I’m really looking at is the one against the White Sox. They’re a dangerous offense, but can be pitched to. If he does well against the Royals but poorly against the White Sox, what does that tell you? A pitcher whose home park is a dome needs to be able to pitch there. If Dickey is going to struggle all year there, I’m pretty concerned.

Ultimately, I’m with Clave about not overreacting. People do that all the time in fantasy baseball, forgetting just how long the season is. But if I don’t see some signs that Dickey has adapted to his environment by the end of the month, I’m looking at other options. Maybe move him into a spot starter role, maybe look to trade him, maybe even just cutting him.

Again, I wouldn’t do much until the end of the month, but I wouldn’t let my patience extend beyond that point.

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Fantasy Baseball Reaction: Tim Lincecum’s First Start

Michael Dixon —  April 9, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Art Siegel

Photo courtesy of Art Siegel

The season’s barely a week old, but 2013 has already been an interesting season for aces, or at least one time aces. Clayton Kershaw has been unhittable. Yu Darvish has been pretty spectacular himself, while Jon Lester (of all people) has been a rock. But as Clave pointed out, Sunday produced ugly starts for Cole Hamels, R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain, Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, David Price, Stephen Strasburg, and an injured Jered Weaver.

Roy Halladay was shaky in his first start, and followed it up with a similarly bad second start. But today, let’s take a look at another former Cy Young Award winner’s first start, Tim Lincecum.

Anyone who saw Timmy’s first start of 2013 probably came away describing it with any of all of these words: Ugly, lucky, gutty, clutch.

Having watched every pitch, I’ll say that every one of those words is accurate. Take a look at his line:

  • 5 innings, 0 earned runs (2 unearned), 3 hits, 7 walks, 4 strikeouts.

It certainly wasn’t perennial Cy Young contender (or winner) that we saw from 2007-2011. It wasn’t even the dominant “Freak” that we saw in the 2012 Postseason as a mid-long reliever.

But it was also a far cry from the guy that we saw all too often during the regular season in 2012. The guy who frequently lost hitters when ahead in the count, who had the worst ERA in the league, the guy who just looked lost in big spots. The Tim Lincecum we saw on Wednesday wasn’t that guy.

So, is there anything we can learn from that outing when looking ahead to the rest of 2013? Well, let’s take a look.

Before offering any predictions, let’s take a deeper look at the numbers from Wednesday:

  • Of the 11 outs not recorded by strikeout, 8 were flyouts, 3 were groundouts.
  • Lincecum threw 91 pitches — 46 strikes, 45 balls
  • While the 2 runs were unearned, he had a lot to do with both being scored.
  • 4 of the 7 walks came after the Giants opened a 4-1 lead.
  • Three of Lincecum’s walks came against Juan Uribe, A.J. Ellis, and Josh Beckett, the 7-9 hitters of the L.A. order.
  • While it’s not the best stat for measuring how well someone pitched, Lincecum did pick up a win.

It wasn’t pretty. Walking guys is always risky, but when you’re up by three runs, there’s no excuse for not challenging the hitters. Walking Juan Uribe (who sports a .296 career OBP) is never easy, and while Josh Beckett is a capable hitting pitcher, it’s never okay to put your opposite number on base for free.

But despite all of that negativity, I am encouraged by his outing and think it bodes well for the rest of 2013.

Look, I don’t think we’re ever going to see the Cy Young Award winner again. But Lincecum doesn’t need to have his 2007-2011 form to be a valuable fantasy arm. As a matter of fact, when you factor in his strikeouts, he still carried some value in 2012, despite a dismal season.

So, why am I encouraged? Well, let me walk you through a scenario that I saw an awful lot of in 2012.

  • Two outs, men on second and third, Lincecum facing a hitter towards the bottom of the lineup, jumps ahead in the count 0-2. And proceeds to allow a hit. Not a blooper, a scalded line drive to the outfield, possibly to the gap or even over the fence.

If you followed the Giants closely in 2012, you saw a lot of that scenario, or something pretty similar to it.

There was none of that on Wednesday. Yes, he did allow a few loud outs on long fly outs to center, but I look at that as him using the biggest part of a pitcher’s yard. Sure, there’s some luck there, but where the ball is located by the pitcher has a lot to do with where it goes once hit.

Lincecum didn’t have his best stuff on Wednesday, but still limited the damage and allowed his team to win the game without a massive offensive output. That’s something we didn’t even see a lot of from Lincecum when he was at his best. Yes, he was on more often than not, but he’d still have a start or two where his stuff was off and when that happened, the numbers were horrible across the board, even in the Cy Young years.

There was a certain toughness that we saw on Wednesday that makes me think Lincecum has turned a corner from last year. A good sign of a strong pitcher is that he’s able to limit damage when his stuff isn’t at its best. Even if you say the two runs allowed were on him, two runs in five innings isn’t terrible when someone’s not on his game. Heck, if that’s his average start, you’re looking at a 3.60 ERA. Not great, but respectable, especially for a guy with Timmy’s strikeout rates.

Lincecum takes the mound tonight against the Rockies. With Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer, and Carlos Gonzalez healthy, they are still a very capable hitting team with young talent. But they’re a much better offensive team at Coors Field, and until Monday had yet to play a game in a pitcher’s park (3 in Milwaukee, 3 in Colorado). But my hope for Lincecum also looks at his next two outings, assuming he takes the hill every fifth Giants game.

Over the weekend, he’ll take the hill in Chicago against the Cubs, and then it’s back home against the Padres. There are some decent hitters in both lineup, but neither appears to be particularly daunting. My optimism believes that Timmy will find a good groove early in the year something he didn’t have a great chance to do in 2012, when he started the year with starts in Arizona and Colorado.

While I don’t think he’ll be the Cy Young Award winner again, I do expect him to be closer to that form than the struggling pitcher that we saw in 2012.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: The Value of Jose Fernandez

Michael Dixon —  April 3, 2013 — 2 Comments
Photo courtesy of JonDigital

Photo courtesy of JonDigital

The value of interacting with readers is that even if they don’t ask for anything terribly in depth, your answers to their questions cause you to do a bit of research. Case in point: A recent Facebook conversation about Jose Fernandez of the Marlins:

Original Comment: Jose Fernandez might be worth an add. What do you think?

My Response: Not Yet.

After a slight diversion, we had Clave chime in with what is currently the last word said on the matter.

Clave: Only Jeremy Bonderman and Rick Porcello have jumped from A ball at age 20. Fernandez in the majors is a gamble, but not surprising considering the Marlins.

That last little bit got me to thinking a little bit. With such a small sample size, let’s take a look at what Jeremy Bonderman, Rick Porcello, and Fernandez did in their Age-19 seasons in the minors.

  IP ER H BB SO K/9 H/9 BB/9 W-L ERA WHIP
Bonderman (2002) 156.2 66 140 59 170 9.8 8.0 3.4 9-9 3.79 1.270 
Porcello (2008) 125 37 116 33 72 5.2 8.4 2.4 8-6 2.66 1.192 
Fernandez (2012) 134 26 89 35 158 10.6 6.0 2.4 14-1 1.75 0.925

Before we look into Fernandez, let’s take a look at how Bonderman and Porcello fared as rookies.

  IP ER H BB SO K/9 H/9 BB/9 W-L ERA WHIP
Bonderman (2003) 162 100 193 58 108 6.0 10.7 3.2 6-19 5.56 1.549 
Porcello (2009) 170.2 75 176 52 89 4.7 9.3 2.7 14-9 3.96 1.336

From a real baseball perspective, I’d actually say that Porcello’s 2009 season was pretty good. From a fantasy perspective, it was nothing to write home about. He’s not a strikeout guy so even though his ERA was under 4.00 and he won 14 games, the rest of the season was rather ordinary.

Now, I’ll grant that Fernandez as a 19-year-old was better than Bonderman and Porcello in nearly every category, but in case you didn’t know this, Major League hitters are a lot better than A-ball guys. If you’re not even 21, you haven’t learned your craft at all. Now, you can point to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper if you’d like, but I’d think about a few things before drawing the comparison with Fernandez.

  1. Hitting is much different than pitching. Good hitters fail seven out of ten times. Pitchers are expected to succeed a lot more. 
  2. Both Trout and Harper played at higher Minor League levels, with Trout even being a September call-up in 2011.
  3. Hitters or pitchers, you may not see rookies like Trout or Harper for quite some time.

There’s something else to consider about Fernandez, a pitch count that’s likely to be pretty strict (per ESPN).

He will make his MLB debut next Sunday against the Mets. Marlins president Larry Beinfest indicated that Fernandez is expected to throw 150-170 innings this season, all with the major league club.

That’s not something you want to see. It’s going to be hard enough to win games for the Marlins this year, but if they’re putting him on a tight innings watch, then he’s not going to be getting deep in games often enough to win many of them. Throw in the fact that the Marlins are an awful team, so any injuries, even if minor, will likely be treated very cautiously.

I agree with Clave and Mark Townsend of Yahoo Sports, this is a hard move to justify. There’s going to be a serious learning curve. Again, I know that Fernandez has a better track record than Bonderman and Porcello. I also know that Porcello has been okay as a major leaguer. Personally, I’d attribute that more to his style of pitching, which makes adjustments easier. But if we’re being really kind Bonderman had an average career, and a disastrous rookie season. Fernandez may be better than Bonderman was, but he’ll have to be much better to have a rookie season that’s considered good.

As bright as Fernandez’s future seems to be, I’d avoid him in 2013, at least for a while. Think back to when you were in school. Every year, there was an adjustment period, which was usually countered by teachers lightening the load in the first few weeks. Jumping from A-ball to Triple-A is about the equivalent of going from fifth grade to your senior year in high school, only with that irritating teacher who gives you three hours worth of homework on the first day of school.

The only advice I have for fantasy owners on Fernandez is to wait, probably five starts. See what he gives the Marlins then, and how rough his adjustment is. See how well he’s striking guys out, or if his walk rates are dramatically increasing. If he’s transitioning smoothly, I’d say he’s worth a spot on deeper rosters, at least on a spot start basis.

But I’m not expecting that. Fernandez has an incredibly bright future, but I think the earliest the bright part starts is late-2013, but I’m looking more at 2014 or even 2015.

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