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Fear and Loathing of Justin Upton

Guest Poster —  April 13, 2013 — Leave a comment

Braves

This is a Guest Post from Josh Kruk. When Josh isn’t at his daytime gig as a digital marketer, he’s that guy at the bar staring at his phone like it’s a 3D magic eye painting.  He is a Buffalo, NY native and sports fan, so he is fluent in sports related heartbreak and despair.  The Red Sox fandom was an attempt at balancing out the misery, so far with mixed results.  He and a college friend just started a baseball blog over at StripesAndSox.comHere’s how you could guest post on Crackerjacks.

Nerd confession time: last year I won my fantasy baseball league and it felt great.  After 6 years in the league I finally took home a championship and some extra cash.  Plus, of course, the invaluable commodity of bragging rights among my college friends.  There aren’t many better feelings in the world than when a league mate and chucks a snark ball your way and you take a cricket bat to it with “Well guess what? I won the league!”

I am currently 1-0 in my league, but all that glory seems like a distant, faded memory. It’s a phantom limb. It’s a hazy dream.  It’s something that Don Draper would evoke in an off-the-cuff monologue to sell shoes.

This is all thanks to Justin Upton.  I owned him in Fantasy for two straight years.  One amazing year and one year that took a toll on my soul.  Then I let him go.  Of course, the team I played against the first week had him in the line up.

Watching Justin Upton highlights the first week felt like staring at an ex’s Facebook page.  She’s happy.  She’s got that smile you knew she had but only showed you in glimpses.  You shouldn’t look, but you do.  You grab the nearest bottle of bourbon, throw on some Elliot Smith and keep looking.

You don’t need my help anymore
Its all now to you, there ain’t no before
Now that you’re big enough to run your own show
You’re just somebody that I used to know

(Yes, Elliot Smith wrote a song called “Somebody That I Used To know” too and it’s way better than that Gotye song)

I won the battle this week, but can I win the war?  Upton’s line is currently insane (.407/.433/.1581 with 6 HR in 27 AB). Obviously not sustainable, but he’s always been one of those “if he could  just put it together…” types of players.  Well he’s in a new situation on a contender, he’s still only 25 and so far,  he is putting it together.  And I’m left to sit on the curb, head in hands, wondering what could have been.

Anyone who’s owned Justin Upton, they’ll tell you it’s like a tumultuous relationship:  when it’s good you’re sipping champagne on the balcony, when it’s bad you’re dodging vases being thrown at your head.

In 2011 Upton was in the MVP conversation: .289/.369/.898.  6.1 WAR.  When you owned him then you had “owner smugness.”  You’d find ways to shoehorn the fact that you owned him into fantasy baseball conversations.

2012 not 2011.  His WAR plummeted to 2.3  He took a hit in pretty much every statistical category.  I made 4 trade offers including him, only to have owners guffaw and run to their computers to hit “reject trade,” leaving a cartoon style cloud of dust in their wake.

So I cut bait.  When it was time to submit keepers, I let Justin Upton go.  I took a few days to grow a beard, rearrange my room, throw out some sentimental items and get ready to move on.  This was the right move, I told myself.

And then I saw his line.  Yes it’s only the first week, but even the most savvy fantasy GMs sometimes have trouble thinking big picture; playing the long game if you will.  ”Just gotta focus on my team and look forward,” I say to myself in the mirror every time I set my line up.

If you’ve never played fantasy sports you think this sounds ridiculous, I know.  Those that have played can tell you we do it mostly because it’s fun and a good way to stay connected with your friends.  But when you play poker against your friends, you don’t show up looking to lose.  You want to have fun, but you’ll be damned if you’re going to lay up.  You put your money down, and you aim to win.

Friendship and competition are a natural bond, forged through years of profanity laden video game battles and races to call “shotgun” when you see the car.  Right now, my friend who owns Justin Upton is calling blitz and I’m watching it happen.

I’ll be okay.  I like my fantasy team, I may do well again.  However, the trials and tribulations of fantasy sports would cause even a monk to slam a lap top in disgust.  I’m gonna keep checking on my phone, at least that has insurance on it.

Don't order this Country Breakfast in the second round. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Don’t order this Country Breakfast in the second round. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

This is a Guest Post by Colby Prough. You can follow him on Twitter @dismalfb. Read on, he’s sharing years of hard lessons with us. Others have guest posted for us: Check out Andy Young of Outlier Baseball and Bryan Curley from Baseball Professor. Here’s how you could guest post.

Up front, I love fantasy baseball.  I look forward to the next season as soon as the old one is over.  Unfortunately…I’m terrible at it.  Terrible.

But I just can’t quit.  I love doing it.  I spend hours preparing for it.  I make my own Excel sheets for it.  I would hate to guess how many dollars worth of magazines I have bought over the years and studied until they were rags.  I go into my draft supremely confident that I have it whipped.  My plans are in place and my strategy is solid. Then…the draft starts.  This article isn’t going to be so much of a how to, but more of a “what not to do”.  Hopefully, someone will read this and learn from my mistakes.

Rule One: Don’t be a Homer

I’m a huge Royals fan.  I’m eternally optimistic.  I go into every season thinking this is the year they will go all the way.  I know a lot of fans feel this way about their team, but, read again, I’m a Royals fan.  The team is finally starting to make some changes that a fan can get excited about, but, in my case, probably a little too excited. I will see a Royals player that I KNOW is going to have a huge year and draft him two rounds too early and be proud of it.  Smug, even, about the “steal” I drafted.  I haven’t done this occasionally, I do this every…single…year.  Anyone else have a Royal’s player carry their team?  Didn’t think so.  Don’t pick a player just because you’re a huge fan.

Rule Two:  Make a plan and stick with it.

I always go into a draft with a firm plan.  This plan (that I have spent weeks on)  generally lasts roughly two rounds and then out the window it goes.  I start drafting by my gut.  To my chagrin, though quite expansive, my gut isn’t very good at fantasy baseball.

I can not reiterate this enough, be flexible, but have a firm plan and stick with it.  If the draft isn’t going according to your plan, don’t panic.  Rework your plan to make it effective for you.  Think on your feet and have back-up plans to your back-up plans.

Rule three:  After your draft, don’t overtinker.

Ok, overtinker isn’t a word.  I know this because there’s a little red line under it.  It is however the word that I use for how I manipulate my lineup after a draft, especially after the season starts.  I get panicky.  I start dropping and adding players left and right.

Be patient.  I preach this to myself every year, but never follow through.  That career .300 hitter that is going through a 0 for 12 streak?  Give him a little time, he’s more than likely going to pull out of it.  You drop him and you’ll be kicking yourself a week later when he goes on a tear.

 

I have played fantasy baseball for over fifteen years and have never won a thing.  I am always the subject of ridicule on the league message boards.  The best thing about having me in your fantasy baseball league (besides easy wins) is that I never get up.  I’m still tinkering with that lineup on the last day of the season.  Now,  I can’t tell you what to do like some experts *cough* The Crackerjacks *cough* can to help you win your league, but I can sure tell you what NOT to do.

I hope someone gleaned some helpful information in this article and it helps them in their draft and in the running of their league.  I hope this helps someone do what I am unable to do.  Win.

I, however, have to go.  I’m in a mock draft right now and I’m pretty sure I can get Billy Butler in the second round.

And it starts again….

You Should Let Someone Else Draft Jered Weaver

Guest Poster —  December 22, 2012 — 3 Comments
Should you draft Jered Weaver in 2013? mage courtesy of Keith Allison.

Should you draft Jered Weaver in 2013? mage courtesy of Keith Allison.

This is a Guest Post by Bryan Curley. Bryan is the founder of BaseballProf.com. Clave was a guest poster on Baseball Professor last week, and this week Bryan returns the favor. For links to his work feel free to visit Baseball Professor at baseballprof.com or check them out on Facebook.

Saber-skeptics (as well as fans who don the Angels “A”) might not like what I’m about to say – let someone else draft Jered Weaver this year.

Last season Weaver spun 220 spectacular innings, fooling opponents to the tune of a 2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .213 opponents’ batting average all while racking up 17 wins for the Angels. It was his second straight sub-3.00 ERA season and his third straight year with a WHIP of 1.07 or better. While those superficial stats are undoubtedly impressive, the more enlightened among us see troublesome trends that could signal Weaver’s impending fall from the ranks of the elite.

In 2010 Weaver struck out 25.8% of the batters he faced. In 2011 that rate fell to 21.4%. Last year it fell again to 19.2%. That rate — 19.2% — was his lowest since 2007 but not much lower than his 2009 rate of 19.7%. That year his ERA was 3.75.

Of course, Weaver’s walk rate has slightly improved since that 2009 season, down to 6.1% from 7.5%, so his command rate (K:BB ratio) in 2012 was actually better than that 2009 season. Still, his 3.16 K:BB ratio from last year represents a second straight year of decline.

But that’s OK, right? I mean, Weaver has consistently posted BABIPs well below the league average because he has an uncanny ability to generate weak contact. Even if his strikeout rate is in decline, he can make up for it by inducing soft grounders and lazy fly balls. It’s not easy quantifying how much “weak contact” a pitcher actually induces, but there are two measures readily available for us: infield fly rate and line drive rate.

From a pitcher’s perspective, infield flies are good and line drives are bad. Last season Weaver induced infield flies 9.4% of the time. For comparison, the league average was 10.0%. Weaver’s previous career low was 11.5% (2007), and he’d been north of 14.0% in three of the last four years. Also last season, Weaver allowed line drives 21.1% of the time. For comparison, the league average was 20.9%, and in only one other season did Weaver’s line drive rate exceed 19.0% (2008).

And I haven’t even mentioned Weaver’s FIP last year. FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, is essentially a measure of how well a pitcher pitched regardless of how well his fielders fielded. One could make a very strong argument that Weaver’s two best seasons were 2010 and 2011, and not coincidentally Weaver posted his two best FIPs in those seasons, 3.06 and 3.20, respectively. Last season Weaver’s FIP was 3.75, so despite pitching to a 2.81 ERA in 2012, Weaver’s peripheral stats indicate he pitched more like Homer Bailey (3.68 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.23 K:BB ratio) than Johnny Cueto (2.78 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.47 ERA). (And no, I did not intentionally pick two Cincinnati Reds. I just liked the comparisons.)

Last year there were 99 pitchers who tossed at least 150 innings, and 10 of them had peripherals similar to Weaver (line drive rate of 20.0% or higher, infield fly rate of 10.0% or lower, and a K:BB ratio of at least 3.00). Those players are listed below.

IP ERA FIP WHIP LD% IFFB% K/BB
Jered Weaver 188.2 2.81 3.75 1.02 21.1 9.4 3.16
Kyle Lohse 211 2.86 3.51 1.09 23.9 9.9 3.76
Jordan Zimmermann 195.2 2.94 3.51 1.17 23.2 9.7 3.56
Stephen Strasburg 159.1 3.16 2.82 1.15 22.7 9.2 4.10
Wade Miley 194.2 3.33 3.15 1.18 23.0 6.4 3.89
Zack Greinke 212.1 3.48 3.10 1.20 21.7 9.1 3.70
Mark Buehrle 202.1 3.74 4.18 1.17 22.4 7.4 3.13
Jeff Samardzija 174.2 3.81 3.55 1.22 22.3 3.8 3.21
Adam Wainwright 198.2 3.94 3.10 1.25 23.0 6.6 3.54
Ian Kennedy 208.1 4.02 4.04 1.30 20.6 10.0 3.40
Joe Blanton 191 4.71 3.91 1.26 23.4 7.4 4.88
Average: 194.1 3.43 3.41 1.15 21.8 7.8 3.56

Among this group of analogous players (as far as peripherals are concerned), Weaver had the best season. He had the lowest ERA with only Kyle Lohse and Jordan Zimmermann also checking in under 3.15, and his 1.02 WHIP was really only rivaled by Lohse’s 1.09. These players averaged a 3.43 ERA (very close to their 3.41 FIP) and a 1.15 WHIP. If Weaver were to post numbers even remotely close to those marks, especially with his strikeout rate merely league average, he’d probably need to win 25 games to remain an elite fantasy option. I’ll say the odds of that happening are rather slim.

Maybe you don’t agree with all this mumbo jumbo. Maybe you’ve seen Weaver pitch once or twice and you think he just has “good stuff” or “it” or some other intangible that the stats don’t quantify. Maybe you’re right. But fantasy baseball is a numbers game, and I choose to use numbers to project which players could break out and which are headed for decline. Weaver very well could replicate the success he’s had over the last three years, but I think there’s a significant chance he regresses and falls into to the second tier of starting pitchers. That’s still very good, and I’d still like to have Weaver on my fantasy team, but I don’t want to draft him like an ace.

I’ll let someone else do that.

First Place Value on Last Place Teams

Guest Poster —  December 15, 2012 — Leave a comment
Anthony Rizzo looks collected at the plate. Image courtesy of the Iowa Cubs.

Anthony Rizzo looks collected at the plate. Image courtesy of the Iowa Cubs.

Fantasy baseball is unlike any other pretend sport in the world. There are 30 teams with eight or nine offensive players on a team, five (or more) starting pitchers, one closer per team and some tantalizing bench players and middle relievers.

But like those fantasy games, the question in this game…where can I find value?  Well I’m here to give you some good off-brand talent.

So here are some good players from bad teams. These teams all had losing records in 2012 and the players are non-obvious options on these bad teams (David Wright on the Mets is not an amazing find). The key here is to find value that others may overlook in the draft. These aren’t necessarily sleepers, but guys who could come at a good price on draft day.

Today, I’ll be taking a look at corner infielders.

 

FIRST BASEMEN

Michael Cuddyer played in only 101 games last season, hitting 260 with 16 HR, 58 RBI, 53 R and 8 SB. Spread that out over 150 games, and you conservatively have 24 HR, 87 RBI, 79 R and 16 SB. That’s pretty solid output. Now, first base is stacked and most of the studs at the position play for good teams. In fact, first basemen generally dominate the rankings of top offensive players. But this is about value. While others chase a big name first baseman like Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, you can go after premier guys at shallower positions and still get good production from someone of Cuddyer’s ilk.  He also qualifies as an OF, and may spend time there with Todd Helton at first.

And playing for the Rockies, he’ll be overlooked by others in your draft room but will still get the benefits of playing in Coors Field. It’s a double-whammy. Look for another strong season of 20+ HR, 80+ RBI, 75+ R and 10+ SB.

Anthony Rizzo of the Cubs is another good value candidate. In half of a season with Chicago last year he hit 287 with 15 HR, 48 RBI and 44 R.  He was good enough to push the Cubs All Star Bryan LaHair into right field, and eventually to Japan. If you assume that adjustments will be made in his first full season then it’s fair to think you could see 270+ with 20-25 HR, 90 RBI and 80 R. He’ll get gobbled up quickly in dynasty and keeper leagues, but may last a bit longer in regular leagues.

Digging a little deeper, you can always park Justin Smoak in a utility spot or even keep him as injury insurance on your bench. He’s kind of a one trick pony, but not many people would turn their noses up at an extra 20 HR from a backup.

And if you are looking for a true sleeper, I’d suggest Brett Wallace of the Astros. Injuries limited him to 66 games last year, but he hit 253 with 9 HR and 24 RBI and R in that time. Over a full season that’s another 20 HR with 60+ RBI and R. The Astros won’t be great, but if he’s figuring it out he could be a true diamond in the rough.

 

THIRD BASEMEN

Chase Headley had a coming out party in San Diego last year. As the NL RBI leader, he’s someone that everyone in your league should now be pretty aware of. So he won’t come as cheaply as others on this list, but the team brand name could make him more affordable and more profitable than lower achievers from better teams.

Last season, he hit 286 with 31 HR, 115 RBI, 95 R and 17 SB. That makes him a five-category contributor. And he did that on a terrible team in a stadium that kills offense. So the good news is that he has the ability to do it again, no matter the location or abysmal talent around him. And while teams will pitch him more carefully, as the Padres young guys get better he may get more opportunities, so it could equal out. I doubt he is the RBI leader again, and may not break 100.  But I think a  .270 average with 20 homers, 80, runs and RBI, with 10 steals is a fairly conservative estimate, and not bad output from a weak position.

Another option at the hot corner is Brett Lawrie, but he’s a classic overpay trap. He’s an exciting young player who hit .273 with 11 homers, 48 RBI, 73 runs, and 13 steals in 125 games last year. But the Toronto Blue Jays ain’t flying under the radar anymore. Lawrie makes this list based on what the Blue Jays did last year, but certainly won’t be around in keeper or dynasty leagues.

His potential may even push his stock up in conventional leagues. But if he should fall to an affordable level, he’s worth the draft pick as he can contribute in all 5 categories, and is now playing on a team loaded with talent that would have been fairly potent last season if not for injury.

For true value, perhaps you should look at Will Middlebrooks of the Red Sox, who was .288 with 15 homers, 54 RBI, and 34 runs in just 75 games. That’s around a 30 homer, 100 RBI, and 70 run year if he plays all 162.

Again, the Red Sox brand name may sell him for more than he’s worth, but with their struggles last season, he’s a good candidate for this list.  In addition, the weakness of this position really shines through as all the guys who are good enough to make this list truly aren’t sleepers.

But Middlebrooks played well enough to push Youkilis out the door, so that job is his to lose. He’ll hit in the middle of a solid Red Sox lineup and should contribute at least 20 HR and 75+ RBI while hopefully helping in AVG and R. You’re not going to get him very late, but he’s a solid candidate to eye in the middle rounds as you chase someone else with that early pick.

Check back next time for some help up the middle.

Gump and Ruf Watch the Rain Come In

Gump and Ruf Watch the Rain Come In, Image courtesy of flickr user BeGreen.

This is a Guest Post by Andy Young. Check out his blog at outliarbaseball.com or follow him on Twitter @outliarbaseball. Outliar Baseball seeks to raise and answer questions in an unbiased fashion, using only the statistics. You will find general statistical research, player profiles, and downloadable leader boards.

Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Yonder Alonso and Todd Frazier were impact first-year position players in 2012. They may not all have qualified as rookies, but 2012 was the year they all seem to have graduated from the minors.

Trout and Harper snagged ROY honors. Goldschmidt almost went 20-20 as a first baseman. The other two were very rosterable. Trout had an ADP of 260 (read: was largely undrafted) in ESPN leagues. Harper went at 215. Goldy went at 190.

First year players are largely overlooked in drafts, and are cheap in auctions. So, the obvious question is who are the impact first-year position players going to be in 2013?

I used the following criteria to answer that question; all players listed must:

  • Have had excellent Minor League seasons in 2012
  • Generally have had success at each stop in their Minor League career
  • Be mostly unblocked by incumbent Major Leaguers

This criteria is not flawless. Each player really needs to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Folks who stuck hard and fast to these rules missed out on Trout last year. He was blocked by Peter Bourjos, Vernon Wells, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Mark Trumbo in the Angels’ outfield. They may also have been distracted by his awful 2011 MLB line of .220 / .281 / .390 with 4 SB in 40 games. And you probably know how that turned out.

Let’s get on with it. Players are listed with their ages and career Minor League stat line. All counting stats are converted to a 150-game pace. Continue Reading…

Ricky Romero

Ricky Romero stretches before his start.

Last year, the Jays had 12 different pitchers start for them. Injuries were part of the problem, but general ineffectiveness was also to blame. Only Ricky Romero and Henderson Alvarez broke the 30-start barrier for the Blue Jays last year, and Alvarez is now a Marlin. So for that reason this trade immediately upgrades their starting rotation by adding a quality veteran in Mark Buehrle and a potential stud in Josh Johnson.  So let’s take at look at their potential rotation and see if any of them could feasibly help your fantasy teams.

  1. Ricky Romero Still number one on the depth chart despite a bad season last year. Lest we forget, he is only one season removed from a 15-win campaign in which he sported a 2.92 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 178 Ks in 225 IP. Last year was obviously a step back as he went 9-14 with a 5.77 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and only 124 Ks in 181 IP. Something went wrong in that he set a career high in walks while pitching fewer innings. He also set career highs in H/9 and HR/9 while seeing his K/9 rate drop nearly one whole point. It’s hard to say what happened to Romero. The good news is that, there hasn’t been much talk that I’ve heard about a loss of velocity or control. Sometimes guys just have a bad year. It’s important to remember that he had two very good seasons prior to this one where he had over 200 IP, winning records and an improving ERA each season. And, he’s a bulldog out there who has stayed healthy each and every season. Expect somewhere between his 2011 and 2012, probably similar to his 2010 season.
    Reasonable Projection: 12-10, 3.68, 192 IP, 166 Ks, 1.21 WHIP.
  2. Josh Johnson The true ace of this staff now. After being injured for most of 2011, he hoped 2012 would see him return to excellence after winning the ERA title in 2010. However he was back to being a mere mortal, going 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 165 Ks in 191 IP.  The numbers aren’t terrible, but they weren’t what anyone who drafted Johnson early was expecting. But his BB rate was higher than normal and he played for a stinker of a team in Miami. Perhaps he was overthrowing and that led to some of his issues. A move to the AL East will give him better teammates, but also a tougher group of hitters to pitch against. I suspect we’ll see an improvement over last season, though I don’t think he’ll win the ERA title again. He can hopefully give you wins this year while helping in the WHIP and ERA departments. A strikeout pitcher he is not, but he’ll throw a few of those your way too.  Probably a little better than Romero, but still an injury risk as he’s only reached 30 starts twice in 5 years.
    Reasonable Projection: 14-9, 3.54, 177 IP, 164 Ks, 1.16 WHIP.
  3. Mark Buehrle The new number 3 man in Toronto.  With Buehrle you pay for consistency. It’s not exciting, but it’s dependable and that’s worth a lot in this crazy game. He’s given teams over 200 IP every season since 2001. He’s kept his ERA under 5 every season, with a career ERA of 3.82. He throws one of the slowest fastballs in the major leagues and doesn’t put many men on. He won’t strikeout a lot of guys, with his career high being 165 in 2004. He’s an innings eater who won’t let things get out of control. That’s what he did last year going 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 125 Ks in 202 IP. He wins ball games. He’s had double digit wins every year since 01 with only one losing season in there, going 12-13 in ’06.  His dependability makes him one of the most boring pitchers in baseball, which also makes him one of the most sought after. You get what you pay for. People like that.
    Reasonable Projection: 12-11, 3.79, 210 IP, 128 Ks, 1.31 WHIP.
  4. Brandon Morrow Toronto’s best pitcher last year. He led the club with 10 Wins, despite only starting 21 games. He also had a sparkling 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Brandon Morrow took a big leap forward dropping his ERA from the 4.40 region to under 3. He also saw fewer walks than ever before. It came at the expense of Ks, but if that’s the tradeoff then the Blue Jays and fantasy owners should be happy. If the improvements Morrow made last season are going to last, he could become this team’s ace. He can certainly bring fantasy players Wins, help in the ERA and WHIP departments, while giving you Ks. I’m a big Morrow fan and think you should be to.
    Reasonable Projection: 15-7, 3.19, 188 IP, 180 Ks, 1.14 WHIP.
  5. J.A. Happ There is no reason to draft J.A. Happ.

Some of you may be asking, who is this person talking about the re-vamped pitching staff in Toronto?

My name is Tom Alsip and I’m the newest Crackerjack Contributor. I’m excited to be writing for this great site, in addition to writing my own baseball blog the Payoff Pitch). I’m a fantasy baseball veteran of almost a decade with plenty of thoughts that I’d love to pass on to all of you.

A lot has been made of the trade between the Blue Jays and Marlins that officially went through last week. If you want to know what I think about the real world implications, I’ve written previously on what this trade could mean. I think I cover it in pretty good detail but for more about the way the Marlins do business you could check out this article by Jeff Passan. It covers things pretty well; touching on the outrage, shame and disgust that anyone other than Blue Jays fans should feel about this trade.

Ryan Braun Hates America

Guest Poster —  March 17, 2012 — Leave a comment
Steve Gansen, who for some reason chooses to use his real name, began writing and editing professionally in 1993. He started as a newspaper editor before becoming an editor for the magazines “Yard & Garden,” “PRO” and “Farm Equipment.” He worked from 2002-11 as acquisitions editor for book publisher Zenith Press. Gansen holds a Bachelor of Arts in English from Iowa State University, is earning a paralegal certificate from Hamline University, and is now available for paralegal services that have nothing to do with baseball, fantasy or otherwise.

 

The question that haunts us today is not whether or not Ryan Braun, the so-called “Hebrew Hammer,” that most valuable of professional players in the mighty National League of Major League Baseball in the year of our Lord two thousand and eleven, took steroids. We leave that question for others to decide. No, today we ask a bigger question, and that is this:

Does Ryan Braun hate America?

Now, to you, the jury of Crackerjack readers, who am I, when I am not being a fantasy baseball manager, but a lowly paralegal? I am not even a lawyer. I freely admit this. I am not one who wishes to commit unauthorized practice of the law. Nor am I one to decide the legal questions of this case. That is the role of the judge. I am no different than you, the jury. I—nay, we—want facts. Just the facts.

And the fact is, as lovers of fantasy baseball, we are lovers of that most precious commodity, that most vulnerable and ethereal of things: the baseball statistic. As true and patriotic Americans and fantasy baseball managers, we understand that a baseball statistic that becomes corrupted by malevolent forces is not only a danger to our latest roster move; it is a danger to our beloved country!

Mr. Braun has told his story. It involved a misplaced urine sample, and unmentionable sins upon the daughters of the Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha metropolitan area. And because this is a family website about a family sport, we will only stick to those substances (hopefully they won’t stick to us) with names that are suitable for reading by those literate American children who frequent the Intertubes when they aren’t playing their WarCrafters or Space Invading on their Nintendo 64s or Macintosh Apple computing machines.

And we won’t dwell on how convenient it was for Mr. Braun that his alleged sins would provide the legal technicality for the grievance committee to ignore the sample that would prove him to be a chronic steroid abuser. We will leave such tortured ironies where they belong—as lyrical fodder for Canadian songstresses.

But Mr. Braun was not just an abuser of steroids. He abused our cherished baseball statistics. Granted, he has yet to eclipse the ridiculous stats of the Canseco/McGwire/Palmeiro/Sosa/Bonds/Clemens era. I recall how baseball announcers would attribute the strange physical specimens and bizarre statistical feats viewers were witnessing to “modern training methods.” Turns out, the methods they were using weren’t so modern. They’ve been around since the nineteenth century, when a European physiologist injected himself with testosterone extracted from a rooster’s naughty bits to increase his (ahem) virility. But baseball remained immune from this foreign fad. When Babe Ruth played, modern training methods meant showing up sober for a Saturday double-header and to refrain from smoking in the dugout.

Then, sometime in the late 1980s, that European rooster extraction made its way to our sacred pastime. The stats became ridiculous. Second basemen started hitting double-figure home runs, for goodness sakes! It got worse at the turn of the millennium. On what planet does a single-season home run record that lasted for 37 years get eclipsed six times in four years? On the same planet where a Canadian runs a 100-meter dash in 9.79 seconds (no, not the songstress) and a golden-boy cyclist wins five consecutive Tour de France championships when most bodies would be in physical decline.

What to do about these inflated statistics, which smear and corrupt and discredit a professional sport that traces its history back to the Civil War years? There are those who compare the so-called Steroid Era and its corruption of statistics to the disgraceful decades before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier. It is a compelling argument, so let’s assume we can have a civil discussion about such matters in a country where someone who proposes such solutions as dumpster-diving as a meal plan for poor children–without a hint of true satirical wit–merits a bronze statue.

Or, not. Let’s just say it is painful enough to look back at the segregation era without comparing it to baseball’s more recent self-inflicted wounds. We hoped the steroid matter was put to rest during those notorious hearings a few years back, when Mark McGwire tearfully bared his soul, but not the whole truth, and Palmeiro wagged one finger at Congress while failing to notice three fingers pointing back at himself. Certain Hall-of-Fame hopes were dashed quicker than a Ben Johnson sprint.

But the matter has not rested, as evidenced by Mr. Braun’s tainted urine. Perhaps he thought that Milwaukee’s connection to the masterfully wimpy owners’ toady Bud Selig would offer a shield to protect his use of so-called modern training methods. At first, he appeared to be wrong. His sample showed record levels of human-growth hormones. Then came the appeal, and his legal team cooked up that ingenious herpes defense, lowering the enforcement bar to historic new depths, and a precedent was born for defending the abuse of baseball statistics. And America will have to live with this mortal wound to its pastime until her plug is pulled.

It is not difficult to see Mr. Braun’s motive here, so we will not dwell on it. Suffice it to say, capitalism is what it is, and to argue otherwise makes you a socialist. We don’t want to seem like Mr. Braun, i.e., America haters. But in legal terms, we have established a chain of causation: grotesque amounts of money => pressure to excel => win at all costs => modern training methods => Rookie of the Year => mo’ money, mo’ money => mo’ modern training methods => MVP season => happy baseball capitalists => Ryan Braun, abuser of baseball => Ryan Braun, America hater.

There are those who would counter-argue that we hurt those we love most. Just as Wall-of-Sound record producer Phil Spector once wrote for his much-abused future ex-wife wife Ronnie as lead singer of the groundbreaking girl group, the Ronettes: “He hit me/It felt like a kiss.” Needless to say, it didn’t get as much airplay as their song “Be My Baby,” nor was it featured in Patrick Swayze’s second greatest movie, but Courtney Love – America’s sweetheart – thought enough of the sentiment to do a cover version. Anyway, if you believe the reasoning inferred therein, that we hurt the ones we love most, then you believe Ryan Braun loves baseball statistics, ergo Ryan Braun loves baseball, ipso facto Ryan Braun loves America.

Come to think of it, that is a very persuasive counter-argument. How can anyone with a heart ignore the passionate plea of Courtney Love? Therefore, on appeal, I must concur that Ryan Braun loves America. As a couple, they deserve each other, much like Rihanna and Chris Brown. They’re both such cute couples. I’m ashamed to have even doubted their sincere mutual affection.

And Patrick Swayze’s greatest movie? Who am I to judge?

 

This is a Guest Post by Brad Berreman. Brad has contributed to multiple websites, mostly with a fantasy sports angle, since 2004. His current work can be found at Rotowire.com (college football/basketball), Bruno Boys Fantasy Football (fantasy football/NFL Draft), Football Nation.com (NFL, CFB and fantasy football) and Fantasy Daddy.com (fantasy football/fantasy baseball). For links to his work feel free to visit his blog at bbsportswriting.blogspot.com and follow him on Twitter @bradberreman24.

 

The offseason brought some big changes to the Chicago Cubs’ franchise, as former Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein was brought aboard as president of baseball operations. Some changes are coming to the roster as well, as veterans Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena were allowed to leave via free agency, opening up starting jobs at third base and first base respectively.

I will take a look at the three most notable candidates for those vacated starting jobs, and what fantasy baseball owners can expect from each in 2012.

Ian Stewart–3B
2011 can be considered a lost season for Ian Stewart, as injuries to his knee and hamstring in spring training kept him getting on track. He was demoted to Triple-A by the Colorado Rockies in April, and flashed power there (14 home runs in just 171 at-bats) before returning to the big leagues and being sidelined late in the season by a wrist injury. He will get a fresh start after being traded to the Chicago Cubs this offseason, and has a clear path to a starting job.

Stewart will turn 27 on April 5, so he still has time to turn his career around as long as he is healthy. He definitely has power potential, as evidenced by 18 home runs in 386 at-bats with the Rockies in 2010 and 25 homers in 2009 over 425 at-bats, so the likelihood of full-time at-bats in the Windy City makes Stewart an intriguing fantasy option.

Stewart is not likely to provide a sudden boost in batting average to fantasy owners, as he has a just a .236 career batting average during his time in the big leagues, and his struggles against left-handers (.223 career average) could lead to a platoon at some point. That said, new Cubs manager Dale Sveum has suggested he has no platoon partner in mind for Stewart at this point and the option that looks most likely right now (Jeff Baker) should not be considered a threat to take away significant playing time.

There is some risk involved if Stewart can’t shake the injury bug that plagued him in 2011, but given how shallow third base is for fantasy baseball owners he makes for a nice buy-low target with upside for mixed league owners on draft day.

2012 Projection: 400 AB, .255 BA, 19 HR, 63 RBI, 5 SB

 

Bryan LaHair–1B
Bryan LaHair put together an MVP season in the Pacific Coast League last season, as he hit .331 with 38 home runs and 109 RBI at Triple-A Iowa before looking solid in 59 major league at-bats (.288, 2 HR, 6 RBI). He has hit 89 home runs over the last three season at Triple-A, and is now expected to start the season as the Cubs starting first baseman.

LaHair further bolstered his status as a power hitter with a strong showing during winter ball in Venezuela (15 home runs in 169 at-bats), but the fact he has just 195 major league at-bats at age 29 is cause for concern he can maintain this 2011 level long-term. The Cubs acquired young first baseman Anthony Rizzo from the San Diego Padres this offseason, and even though Rizzo is currently slated to start the season at Triple-A LaHair may need a nice start to keep the starting gig.

LaHair could easily be very productive if he can secure significant playing time with the Cubs this season, though a fortunate BABIP of .369 last season between Triple-A and the majors and fairly low contact rate (75 percent) makes his batting average unlikely to be repeated this season. At this point, I feel like he is only worth consideration in NL-only leagues on draft day but LaHair could hold some mixed league value as the season goes on.

2012 Projection: 340 AB, .270 BA, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 1 SB

 

Anthony Rizzo–1B
Anthony Rizzo was acquired by the Cubs from the San Diego Padres this offseason, and he has now been traded in back-to-back offseason after going to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez trade prior to 2011.

Rizzo had a very good season at Triple-A last season, hitting .331 with 26 home runs and 101 RBI over 356 at-bats, but he struggled during his first taste of big league action (.141, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 21 strikeouts in 128 at-bats) and may need further minor league seasoning.

Moving out of pitcher-friendly PETCO Park stands to help Rizzo’s offensive production, even though he is expected to start the season at Triple-A. But it may only be a matter of time before he is called up, particularly if Bryan LaHair struggles out of the gate, and the opportunity for regular at-bats could yield solid production. It is worth remembering Rizzo is just 22 years old, which enhances his value in keeper leagues even if he does not see much time with the Cubs in 2012. He is not worthy of anything more than a late-round flier in mixed league drafts.

2012 Projection: 350 AB, .260 BA, 14 HR, 55 RBI, 4 SB