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Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles 2013: Matt Moore

Steve Mims —  March 26, 2013 — 1 Comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Is it me, or is there less buzz about Matt Moore this season than there was last year?

It’s a crazy thought if true, but fantasy owners seemed so disappointed in his slow start in 2012 that they have forgotten how well he was during the second half of the season.

Moore is a 23-year-old lefty considered the best pitching prospect in baseball a couple years ago and nothing he has done in the last two seasons should have changed anyone’s mind.

Lets look at his brief big-league history.

Pros

After the All-Star-Game last year, Moore had a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts with more than a strikeout an inning. Even if you include his slow start, Moore had 11 wins and a 3.81 ERA in his first full season in the majors at age 22, striking out 175 in just over 177 innings.

Moore will get better in his second season and it could be considerably better because the 3.81 ERA was his worst in six pro seasons. In full minor league seasons, he had ERA’s of 1.66, 3.15, 3.36, and 1.92. He had 50 more strikeouts than innings pitched in three of his seasons in the minors.

Moore has been pretty consistent between home and road with a 3.55 ERA at home and 4.14 on the road. You would expect a young pitcher in a dome to have more dramatic difference in those splits.

Cons

Every fantasy owner seemed to target Moore last year and he started out with a 4.68 ERA in April and 4.83 in May and suddenly fantasy players were wondering if he could pitch in the bigs. Those who remained patient were rewarded the rest of the season until he had a rough September.

His early struggles were often a result of giving up homers as he gave up 18 on the year. But again, 13 of those came before the All-Star break.

Taking a pitcher in the American League East has always been a concern, but while Toronto should be improved, Boston and New York aren’t what they used to be on offense and Baltimore will not likely repeat last year’s numbers.

Wins may be the biggest concern for Moore, who had just 11 in a pretty good season. His overall stats could have easily resulted in 16 wins and that leads to concerns that Tampa Bay could have a tough time getting Moore to that number even if he shows improvement this year.

Overall

I see Matt Moore as one of the top pitching options in the American League and one of the safest bets you can take at pitcher.

It is hard to imagine him having an ERA over 3.75, less than 200 strikeouts, or fewer than 14 wins and the upside is great. This is a guy who could post a 3.10 ERA with 220 strikeouts and 18 wins.

If the buzz has worn off Moore in your league, grab him and enjoy.

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Player Profile: Starling Marte

Steve Mims —  March 13, 2013 — Leave a comment
There are some ifs, but Marte could bring a nice power/speed combo. Photo courtesy of Michael Baron.

There are some ifs, but Marte could bring a nice power/speed combo.
Photo courtesy of Michael Baron.

Starling Marte was one of those guys last year that you may have taken a flier on late in an auction or draft with the hope that he might get a late-season call-up to provide a speed-power combination that is hard to find. If you did that, you were thrilled that the Pirates called him up on July 26, more than a month before the September call-ups when most were projecting that Marte would arrive.

Marte was immediately inserted into the starting line-up and provided the power and speed that was promised with five homers and 12 stolen bases in 47 games.
This spring, he is sure to go in every draft and earlier than you might expect in some as he seems to have a starting spot locked down for the Pirates.
Let’s see what to expect from Marte.
PROS
As I said, he has speed and power and the ability to be at least a 20-20 guy and maybe 20-40. His stats would not have translated to that last year over a full season, but improvement should be expected in his first full year in the bigs that could get him near those numbers.
The power has arrived gradually for Marte but it has improved to the point he hit 17 homers last year in the majors and minors combined. Quite frankly, looking at his track record, five homers in 182 at-bats is probably a bit more than expected during his first trip around the bigs. He hit 1, 9, 3, 2, and 12 homers in his first five professional seasons so the power is coming. I wouldn’t expect him to hit much more than 20 homers any time soon, but 20 is within reach.
Speed is his best tool as he stole at least 16 bases in each pro season culminating with 37 combined in AAA and Pittsburgh last year. His 12 stolen bases for the Pirates would translate to about 40 for a 162-game season and that is a fantastic benchmark for a young player considering he should only get better as he gets more comfortable on the bases in the majors.
His .300 on-base percentage in Pittsburgh wasn’t great, but he has always been over .340 in the minors so that is another area where he should quickly improve.
CONS
Marte batted just .257 in Pittsburgh and combined with his .300 on-base percentage, he needs to improve to stay near the top of the order where you want him to maximize his speed.
His batting average improved each year in the minors until he made the final step and fell from .332 in AA to .282 in AAA. Then it dropped another 25 points once he made it to the majors. His track record shows he can hit for average, but he hasn’t shown he can do that at the highest level yet and I don’t think it is realistic to expect a major improvement this year although he should eventually be a .280 hitter in the majors.
Not surprisingly, his strikeout rate also increased when he got to the majors with 50 strikeouts in 47 games, but that is an area where he should improve his second year around.
One thing to note about Marte is that he isn’t as young as you might think. He’s now 24, which is a bit old for a top prospect. He spent parts of six seasons in the minors. Many top prospects who post his solid minor-league numbers reach the majors earlier than Marte did, but the Pirates moved him slowly through the system. So don’t expect the kind of rapid improvement we often see from 20- and 21-year olds who break into the bigs, but there is still plenty of time for Marte to add to his skills.
OUTLOOK
Marte should be better across the board in his first full season in the bigs, which makes you hope for a .280 average with 17 or 18 homers and near 40 stolen bases. That’s not out of the question and would make him a valuable fantasy player.
If you have a guy in your league who likes to go early on top prospects hoping for immense upside, let Marte go, but if you are in a league with guys who tend to take proven performers, grab him if he falls in the middle or later in drafts. Marte should be a solid No. 3 outfielder this year with the ability to be a difference-maker in stolen bases.
AB Runs HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Starlin Marte 532 79 16 68 26 .270 .326 .460
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2013 Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles: Paul Goldschmidt

Steve Mims —  March 8, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of MudflapDC.

Photo courtesy of MudflapDC.

There always seem to be doubts surrounding Paul Goldschmidt.

When he was drafted in the eighth round in 2009 out of unheralded Texas State, he was not immediately considered much of a prospect.

When he drilled 83 homers in his first three minor-league seasons, he was seen as a guy taking advantage of lower-level pitching in hitters-leagues like the California League.

He never played a game at Triple-A before being promoted to Arizona late in 2011, when he hit eight homers in 48 games with the Diamondbacks.

Yet he still wasn’t considered a top-flight fantasy first baseman entering last season. In 2012, he went .286 with 20 homers and 82 RBI while stealing 18 bases.

Those are pretty solid all-around numbers for a first baseman, yet entering this season it seems everyone is questioning if he can repeat those numbers.

So, can he?

 

Pros

Goldschmidt’s power can’t be denied, he has 111 homers in four pro seasons, connecting at every stop along the way, including the majors. He already has 28 homers in 193 Major League games and didn’t turn 25 until the end of the 2012 season.

The upside there is obvious as the power should increase as he gains experience. He could well get to 40 homers in a season soon.

The 18 steals are what really grabs fantasy owners attention as that puts him in a rare class among first baseman. Not many first basemen steal anywhere near that many bases, and even fewer do so while still providing good pop.

His average in two major-league seasons is .278, certainly acceptable for a guy with his power/speed combo and another statistic that looks likely to rise as he begins just his second full season in the bigs.

His .359 on-base percentage and 82 RBI also give him a strong foundation for the future.

He was also consistent last year, 10 homers against lefties, 10 against righties. Ten homers at home, 10 on the road.

 

Cons

The biggest concern with Goldschmidt is that his numbers tailed off at the end of last year.

He had just five homers after July and batted .232 in August. Other than that, it is hard to find fault in any of his statistics.

He struck out 130 times, but that is now too far off base for a power-hitting first baseman and his strikeout rate went down from 2011 to 2012.

His 18 stolen bases last year look fluky after just 22 in his first three pro seasons, but hard to imagine he can’t keep that up. When statistics rise against better competition in the big-leagues, that’s a sign a player is progressing, not that he can’t continue the pace.

 

Outlook

Don’t put me among the doubters.

Goldschmidt has hit for average and power in every pro stop. He hit at least .306 each year in the minors and then hit .250 after a late-season call-up in 2011, which isn’t bad for a guy making his first trip around the majors. He was hitting near .300 much of last year before tailing off at the end, and again that is solid for a first full season in the majors.

I see no reason to think that Goldschmidt won’t improve in every area this year so if you don’t want to grab a first baseman early, he’s a solid pick after the first few rounds who should provide the power you want from a first baseman with above-average speed and batting average.

 

Mims’ 2013 Projection Range

 Projections AB Runs HR RBI SB Avg
Best Case 575 91 32 101 23 .303
Actual 550 84 24 91 14 .290
Worst Case 500 71 16 66 10 .258
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2013 Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles: Pedro Alvarez

Steve Mims —  March 6, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Jon Dawson.

Photo courtesy of Jon Dawson.

Just for a bit of background, I am in one of those auction leagues where you can keep a guy at his original price for three years, or extend him for $5 per year after the second season.

After Pedro Alvarez had 16 homers and 64 RBIs in just 95 games in 2010, his owner extended him two years. After Alvarez hit .191 with four homers in 2011, that same owner cut Alvarez before the end of his contract despite a penalty that cost him both in his auction budget and league fees. He decided the quick demise of Alvarez was worth whatever it cost to get him off his roster.

So Alvarez went for $3 last year in our auction, and at the end of the season I made a trade for him in our keeper league. So as of now, he is slated to be my starting third baseman.

Good move or bad? We will find out soon, as Alvarez has put together three different seasons, making him unpredictable.

His 2010 season was a nice debut for a No. 2 overall pick in 2008. His second season was a disaster that resulted in him getting sent back to the minors. Then 2012 was a nice bounce-back season as he hit .244 with 30 home runs, but still left plenty of potential for the former top prospect in the minors.

 

Pros

Alvarez seems like a lock to hit 30 home runs each season. He would have done it in his first season if he had played the whole year and he reached 30 homers last year when he was finally an everyday third baseman.

He hit nearly 40 homers in less than 200 games in the minors before his arrival in Pittsburgh, so there is no reason to doubt the power.

For the first time in his career, Alvarez enters this season as a lock to be the everyday third baseman in Pittsburgh. That should result in 30-35 homers and 75-80 RBI whether he improves his average or not, and those numbers could be even better if he ever hits for a decent average.

 

Cons

The batting average is a concern.

Alvarez hit .256 in his first trip around the majors, .191 the second time, and .244 in year three. You would like to see him at least get back to that 2010 average, but that seems unlikely considering what he has done the last two years.

If you draft him for his power potential, you need to be prepared to have a .240 hitter on your roster all season. At age 26, Alvarez is a legit home-run hitter, but one with too many strikeouts and not enough base hits.

Alvarez had 180 strikeouts last year, bringing his three-year total to 379 in 1,107 career at-bats. So again, if you are drafting him for his power, realize that you are also getting a guy likely to strikeout once in every three at-bats.

 

Overall Outlook

This should be the most comfortable Alvarez has been entering a season. He bounced back from his disaster of 2011 so the pressure would seem to be off. Nobody expects him to do much more than he did last year, but the talent is there for his average to rise and boost the rest of his statistics as well.

I think last year is the floor for Alvarez, who should be able to at least repeat those numbers and possibly begin to make his move into the upper class of third basemen.

Hopefully, he does well enough to reward me for picking him up as a cheap keeper.

 

Mims’ 2013 Projections for Pedro Alvarez 

Projections AB Runs HR RBI SB Avg
Best Case 575 78 38 106 2 .265
Actual 525 69 32 89 1 .251
Worst Case 425 49 19 66 0 .228
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Will Cameron Maybin ever put together a complete season?

Steve Mims —  February 21, 2013 — 1 Comment
Maybin's career could split two directions. Image courtesy of Flickr.

Maybin’s career could split two directions. Image courtesy of Flickr.

Consider me a doubter.

Maybin has shown signs he can provide a combination of speed and power that led him to be drafted 10th overall in 2005. In 2007, he was a hot enough prospect to be the key player dealt by the Tigers to the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera deal. Three years later, his stock had fallen enough that the Marlins got just a couple of relievers when trading him to San Diego.

His debut with the Padres was impressive enough to earn him a five-year, $25-million deal, but then he slumped again and battled injuries last season.

So will the real Cameron Maybin please stand up.

PROS

Maybin will turn 26 during the 2013 MLB season, younger than you may remember for a guy who has been on top prospect lists for eight years and made his major-league debut in 2007.

He showed in 2011 with the Padres that he could hit for a decent average at .264, be an elite base-stealer with 40 swipes, and added a career-high nine home runs. The question is whether or not that is his ceiling.

It should not be as he showed he could hit for average in the minors, but has yet to carry that over to the bigs. Maybin batted .304, .316, .319, and .340 in four of his minor-league seasons, and while that is obviously the minors, you would think he should be able to get closer than he has to those marks in the majors.

His 40 steals and nine homers in 137 games in 2011 give hope that he could steal 50 bases and hit 15 homers if he was ever consistent and healthy enough to stay in the everyday line-up for the Padres.

Maybin showed he can have improved power when he hit one of the longest homers in baseball last year and he made a swing change late last season that gives fantasy owners hope that he is doing something different to try and improve his offense.

Finally, he is a lock to get plenty of playing time as he has center field to himself and heading into the second year of a five-year deal, the Padres are going to be willing to stick through the tough times in hopes that they can turn him into a productive part of the line-up.

CONS

It’s tough to look at Maybin’s career stat line and project much of an uptick in any category other than batting average and even that is not a small sample size as he has batted .251 in 1,739 plate appearances in the majors. He has been below that average in three of the past four seasons with the .264 in 2011 pulling his career average up.

Maybin hit eight homers in 82 games in 2010, but had just nine homers and eight in the last two seasons with nearly twice as many at-bats in those years. After stealing 40 bases in 2011, he fell off to 26 last year.

One problem with Maybin in fantasy is that he cannot get on base enough to be the lead-off hitter that you hoped for as his career on-base percentage is .314 and he has at least 110 strikeouts in each of the past two years. That forces him to the bottom of the order where his speed results in less runs scored and stolen bases.

OUTLOOK

It seems like every year, Maybin has one of those hot streaks that makes you think he could become a .280 hitter with 20 homers and 60 stolen bases, but that is followed by slumps that leave you disappointed with his final numbers.

It is hard to imagine Maybin being consistent enough throughout an entire season to produce the stat line you want from him. However, he is a nice risk to take late in drafts as a guy guaranteed to get you 20 steals with the upside for much more.

 Projections AB Runs HR RBI SB Avg
Best Case 575 88 18 57 55 .280
Actual 524 74 12 64 31 .263
Worst Case 425 48 7 31 22 .226

 

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12 Bargain Basement Outfielders

Steve Mims —  February 4, 2013 — 2 Comments
Nate McLouth slides into second. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Nate McLouth slides into second. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

An underrated bargain bin for fantasy baseball can be reserve outfielders.

I find that guys who figure to platoon at one spot or serve as a fill-in throughout the outfield often provide nice production at a reduced price, particularly in leagues when you can change your line-up daily. If you get a couple part-timers cheap and check major-league lineups before games start, you can juggle a couple of those guys and get the production of a full-time starter.

Many fantasy baseball players are scared off from these players because they feel like they have to get a guy with a regular starting job. So you can swoop in and get some productive hitters late in a draft or cheap auction. In particular, there are a lot of guys who can provide cheap steals or power.

Another benefit of this strategy is that often these guys work their way into a regular spot in the line-up either due to an injury, or outperforming one of the guys ahead of them on the depth chart. So for $1 in an auction or the final round of a draft, you may find a guy who earns an unexpected 500 at-bats this year.

Here are some outfielders to watch entering spring training who could be in a time-share, but will still produce for your fantasy team.

1. Nolan Reimold and Nate McLouth, Baltimore Orioles:

This looks like a straight platoon and both Nolan Reimold and Nate McLouth can help you.

McLouth came off the scrap heap late last year to provide fantasy value down the stretch with five homers in September. As the lefty in the platoon, he will get the most playing time and could provide 15 homers and 20 stolen bases. Reimold got off to a great start last year with five homers in 16 games, but missed the rest of the season with a neck injury. He’s never played a full major-league season, but has always provided fantasy value when healthy, including 15 homers in 2009 and 13 in 2011.

2. Rajai Davis, Toronto Blue Jays:

Strictly a guy who can boost you in steals. Don’t look for Rajai Davis to start much in Toronto’s loaded outfield, but he’s averaged nearly 40 steals in the last four years and will find a way to do that again through pinch-hitting, pinch-running, and an occasional start.Countdown 13 Graphic

3. Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels:

The outfield is loaded so playing time will be sporadic at best, but Wells hit 11 homers in 243 at-bats last year so he will provide power in whatever at-bats he gets.

4. Chris Young, Oakland: Continue Reading…

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Cardinals Hitting & Pitching Projections

Steve Mims —  February 1, 2013 — 1 Comment
The Cardinals will have as much fantasy talent as any team in baseball in 2013. Photo by Keith Allison

The Cardinals will have as much fantasy talent as any team in baseball in 2013.
Photo by Keith Allison

St. Louis Cardinals — Predicted Finish: First Place, NL Central

The Cardinals have about as many fantasy options as any team in baseball. You have to love the middle of their order with a rising star in Allen Craig, established bats like Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, and Yadier Molina, and plenty of upside at the bottom from David Freese and Jon Jay. It is an offense that looks like it should score plenty of runs.

The pitching staff will be solid as usual, but there are questions just how it will shake out. Chris Carpenter should be good to go, but at age 37 he could slow down a bit. Adam Wainwright should bounce back from a down year for him while Jaime Garcia may not be back from injury right away. Lance Lynn and Jake Westbrook are potential starters, but Shelby Miller should battle them in the spring.

 

Cardinals Offense:

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Rafael Furcal SS 35 S 500 75 6 45 15 .259
Allen Craig 1B 28 R 550 87 25 94 4 .302
Matt Holliday LF 33 R 600 98 29 106 6 .292
Carlos Beltran RF 35 S 550 80 28 98 14 .274
Yadier Molina C 30 R 505 62 21 75 9 .303
David Freese 3B 29 R 525 73 23 90 5 .295
Jon Jay CF 27 L 475 62 9 51 23 .299
Daniel Descalso 2B 26 L 450 43 7 38 10 .249

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Furcal,Craig, Holliday, Beltran, Molina, Freese

Furcal is getting older and has played more than 140 games only once in the last six years, but anyone at the top of this order is going to score a lot of runs and he will steal bases too.

Craig should finally get a full season in the line-up at first base and his numbers could go through the roof with Holliday, Beltran, and Molina behind him. Beltran and Molina are coming off monster years that will be tough to repeat, but both can be counted on in fantasy. Holliday is as consistent as any outfielder in baseball so you know what you are going to get and it is always good. Freese could be in line for a career year with so much firepower in front of him.

 

Cardinals Pitching

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Adam Wainwright 31 R 210 59 18 195 0 3.45 1.23
2 Starter Chris Carpenter 37 R 200 49 13 175 0 3.86 1.18
3 Starter Jaime Garcia 26 L 175 38 10 155 0 4.08 1.33
4 Starter Jake Westbrook 35 R 175 58 8 105 0 4.22 1.44
5 Starter Shelby Miller 22 R 150 32 8 135 0 3.95 1.20
Closer Jason Motte 30 R 75 20 5 90 45 2.54 1.02

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Wainright, Carpenter, Garcia.

Wainwright struggled at times last year returning from injury, but his final numbers were fine and should improve this year. Carpenter returned late last year after missing the season due to injury, so there is no doubt he will be ready for Opening Day, but at age 37 he could be on a downward slide. Great if you can get him cheap, but don’t take him counting on the 2009 version. Garcia is coming off an injury so pay attention during spring training to see if he is ready to start the year. If healthy, he is an underrated starter. .

 

Fantasy Star: Holliday

In nine seasons, he has never hit below .286. He has hit at least 20 homers in his last seven seasons and at least 100 RBI in five of those years. He has averaged 143 games played during his career. His consistency ranks among the best at his position and at just 33 years old, there is no reason to expect a dropoff any time soon. Hitting in the middle of St. Louis’ loaded line-up should produce another .290-25-100 line for Holliday.

 

Fantasy Bust: Westbrook

His ERA dipped below 4.00 for the first time in three years, but his WHIP is always high and he doesn’t strike out many batters. There will be competition throughout the year for spots in the rotation. If Wainwright, Garcia, and Carpenter are healthy all year, they have the top three spots locked down. Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller, and Lance Lynn will all compete for the final two spots and any struggles by Westbrook could send him out of the rotation.

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Jay, Miller, Kolten Wong, Oscar Taveras

Jay is hitting in a great spot to drive in a lot of runs if he can boost his power a bit. If he doesn’t, he could get replaced by Oscar Taveras, arguably the best hitting prospect in the minors who should start the season at Triple A, but could get the call if needed.

Shelby Miller has been one of the top pitching prospects in the minors the past few years and got a late-season call-up last year when he struck out more than one batter per inning in limited work. If he locks down a spot in the rotation, he has tremendous upside.

Wong is another top prospect slated to begin the year in Triple A, but if Descalso gets off to a slow start, Kolten Wong could get the call to the bigs.

 

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Phillies Hitting & Pitching Projections

Steve Mims —  January 23, 2013 — Leave a comment
Unlike 2012, Utley and Howard are both slated to start the season in the lineup.Photo Courtesy of Flickr user Matthew Straubmiller

Unlike 2012, Utley and Howard are both slated to start the season in the lineup.
Photo Courtesy of Flickr user Matthew Straubmiller

Philadelphia Phillies – Predicted Finish: Third Place, National League East

Remember when the Phillies had as many fantasy players as any team in baseball? Not any more. Their line-up used to be filled with early-round picks like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Shane Victorino, and Hunter Pence, but those players are either gone or fading in fantasy value. The Phillies now feature former prospects who haven’t produced like Domonic Brown and John Mayberry., along with some arrivals from the American League with limited upside like Ben Revere and Michael Young.

The pitching staff is still stacked at the top with Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee, but Philadelphia shifted into rebuild mode last year when it made a series of deadline salary dumps so it may be tough for those aces to get their usual win totals.

 

Phillies Offense

Player Name Pos. Age Bats AB R HR RBI SB AVG
Jimmy Rollins SS 34 S 600 100 19 64 30 .265
Ben Revere CF 24 L 525 81 1 40 45 .289
Chase Utley 2B 34 L 600 96 24 94 18 .270
Ryan Howard 1B 33 L 575 88 31 98 0 .268
Michael Young 3B 36 R 600 78 13 88 3 .289
Delmon Young RF 27 R 550 51 16 65 0 .265
Carlos Ruiz C 33 R 450 63 11 75 2 .308
Domonic Brown LF 25 L 350 45 12 50 2 .242

BONUS!!

Player Name Pos. Age Bats AB R HR RBI SB AVG
John Mayberry LF 29 R 300 37 10 32 3 .260

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Rollins, Howard, and Utley are still fantasy relevant, but all should be going a few rounds later than you got them in recent years. Young, Revere, and Ruiz are the only other hitters you can count on this year.

At least Utley and Howard aren’t facing the injury concerns that left their start date for last season uncertain and forced fantasy owners to guess when they would finally take the field. Those two stalwarts combined to play less than 162 games last year, but should be healthy this season. Utley’s batting average has dropped in each of the past five seasons and his power is nowhere near where it was in 2008 either. There is upside he could regain his old form at a cheaper price this year, but more regression is more likely. Howard never found his hitting stroke last year while hitting just .219, but should bounce back to his usual .270 with 30 homers and 90 RBI.

Revere will get you runs and stolen bases with a decent average while Michael Young will bring a solid average, but his power is beginning to fade and a late-career switch to the National League for the first time could be a tough adjustment.

More on Ruiz later, but if you do grab him, just remember to grab a solid back-up because he is suspended the first 25 games.

 

Phillies Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Roy Halladay 36 R 225 36 17 218 0 3.10 1.05
2 Starter Cole Hamels
 29 L 215 48 19 211 0 2.92 1.07
3 Starter Cliff Lee
 34 L 225 30 15 210 0 3.08 1.08
4 Starter Kyle Kendrick
 28 R 165 52 10 120 0 4.12 1.28
5 Starter John Lannan
 28 L 175 75 9 108 0 3.92 1.42
Closer Jonathan Papelbon
 32 R  75 21 6 98 36 2.58 1.01

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: The Big Three are still The Big Three even if many of the top hitters around them have been traded or faded.

Halladay, Hamels, and Lee are all Top-20 pitching options still in the prime of their career even if there were some struggles last season. Focus on their career numbers and their age and grab them if you can. Hope others in your league focus on Halladay’s ERA and Lee’s win total from last year and let them fall farther than they should in drafts.

Kendrick and Lannan bring solid upside late in drafts and auctions.

Papelbon is as solid in the closer position as anyone and it is nice to have a guy who isn’t worried about keeping his job at that position.

 

Fantasy Star: Hamels

Halladay is still considered the ace of the staff by most, but Hamels is the true star of the rotation.

He’s not even 30 yet and he’s posted an ERA under 3.10 in three straight seasons with an average of over 200 strikeouts while making at least 30 starts in each season. He’s getting close to being a top-five fantasy pitcher and if you have your choice of any Philadelphia starter, Hamels is now your top option.

There is some concern about his shoulder, which hurt him late last year and delayed his workouts in the offseason, but the word out of Philadelphia is that he’s fine. Just be sure to pay attention for updates in the spring.

 

Fantasy Bust: Ruiz

First off, he is suspended for the first 25 games after testing positive for amphetamines. Secondly, he is coming off a career year at age 32 that will be tough to repeat, especially given that the offense in front of him will be worse with Victorino and Pence gone.

He never hit double digits in homers before hitting 16 last year and he will not hit that mark again and the same for his 68 RBI. His average seems to vary wildly from year to year, but it is always solid, especially for a catcher. Just don’t look for another .325 season.

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Brown, Lannan

The classic post-hype sleeper, Brown was expected by many to be an All-Star by now but is instead entering his first season as a starter, although he will likely platoon with John Mayberry Jr. after the addition of Delmon Young. The Phillies want to finally see what they have in a guy who was at the top of most prospect lists in recent years. It’s tough to see him hitting much better than about .270 with 15 homers in a part-time role, but there is the potential he finally blossoms into the star he was supposed to be and gets closer to .300 with 30 homers and locks down a full-time job in the outfield.

Lannan felt he was good enough to be in the Nationals rotation last year, but the team did not so he spent much of the year in the minors. He’s better than that and he could have a chip on his shoulder to show the National League that he’s a legitimate starter. His career ERA is just over 4.00 and it was 3.70 during his last full season as a starter, so if he can come through with a career year, it could result in a 3.30 ERA with 12 or 15 wins.

 

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: KC Royals Hitting & Pitching Projections

Steve Mims —  January 10, 2013 — 3 Comments
Billy Butler is coming off of a career year in 2012.Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Billy Butler is coming off of a career year in 2012.
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Kansas City Royals – Predicted Finish: Second Place, AL Central

The Royals have been waiting for next year since 1985, which was not only the last World Series title for the team but the last playoff appearance. Younger fans may not realize this, but the Royals used to be relevant. They went to the playoffs seven times from 1976-85, but have had only one winning season since 1994 to go with four 100-loss seasons during that span.

Well, the Royals are relevant once again. By making arguably the most discussed deal (at least of the deals not including the Miami Marlins) of the hot-stove seasons when they dealt one of the game’s brightest prospects, Wil Myers, for one of its top pitchers, James Shields, Kansas City made it clear that it is no longer playing for the future. The Royals went all-in for 2013 and look to be contender into September for the first time in nearly a decade.

 

Royals Offense

Player Name   Age Bats AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Lorenzo Cain CF 27 R 500 65 16 70 24 .275
Alcides Escobar SS 26 R 600 73 5 60 38 .289
Alex Gordon LF 29 L 625 96 18 75 8 .299
Billy Butler DH 27 R 600 77 26 98 3 .302
Mike Moustakas 3B 24 L 575 71 24 82 8 .263
Salvador Perez C 23 R 500 75 18 82 1 .289
Eric Hosmer 1B 23 L 600 73 22 85 21 .266
Jeff Francoeur RF 29 R 400 46 12 46 3 .228
Chris Getz 2B 29 L 300 42 2 24 15 .255

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Gordon, Butler, Moustakas, Hosmer, and Perez are all young and provide power, so they could feed off each other in the middle of the line-up while Cain and Escobar will provide speed and average along with runs at a cheaper price.

Gordon had a career year in 2011 and Butler is coming off his career year and while both may not match their best totals, if the line-up behind them improves they should settle in nicely for good seasons. Gordon averaged 48 doubles over the last two seasons to go with nearly 20 homers and a .300 average and he should be right around those numbers again. Butler will have a hard time repeating .313-29-107, but he shouldn’t be too far off from that line.

Kansas City needs improvement from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer and should get it from both guys who are under 25 years old. Moustakas dropped nearly 20 points off his average in his first full season in the bigs, but will bounce back to bring a decent average with solid power numbers. Hosmer fell off a cliff as his average dropped 60 points in his first full season, but his tools make him a likely bounce-back candidate and if the average gets anywhere near decent, the other stats will improve as well.

Perez was a sleeper for many entering last year, but then was injured to start the season. At age 22, he hit over .300 with 11 homers in less than 300 at-bats. He’s the guy you think you can get later in fantasy drafts, but will go earlier than you expect.

Cain and Escobar can both hit just under .300 with about 30 stolen bases and if the heart of the order is as strong as it can be, those numbers will rise along with their run total.

 

Royals Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter James Shields 31 R 230 62 17 225 0 3.40 1.10
2 Starter Jeremy Guthrie 34 R 205 59 13 125 0 4.10 1.25
3 Starter Ervin Santana 30 R 200 67 12 150 0 4.27 1.31
4 Starter Wade Davis 27 R 160 69 8 145 0 4.02 1.28
5 Starter Bruce Chen 36 L 200 51 12 147 0 4.28 1.35
Closer Aaron Crow 26 R 78 27 4 81 17 3.33 1.12

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Shields is a top fantasy pitcher while Guthrie, Santana, Davis, and Chen could all be valuable late-draft additions.

Shields has thrown at least 200 innings, struck out 160, and won at least 11 games in each of the past six seasons. That’s about as solid of a track record in those categories as you will find and he will exceed each of those numbers once again. His ERA has been less consistent with one year below 3.00, and three seasons between 3.00 and 4.00 with one season above 4.00 and one above 5.00 during that stretch.

Guthrie is on his third team in less than two seasons, but looks to have found a home in KC with a 3.16 ERA in 14 starts last year. He’s hard to trust, but could be a late-draft steal. It’s the same for Santana and Chen, who have a solid upside, but struggle with consistency.

Davis is making the move from the bullpen to a starter and could be limited in his innings as he makes that jump. His stats were solid as a reliever, but expect some struggles as he puts in more innings.

Crow has the stuff to be a solid closer, but if he struggles then Greg Holland and Tim Collins are both closer candidates to replace him.

 

Fantasy Star: Butler

Because he plays in Kansas City, rarely plays in the field, and doesn’t look like an athlete, he is one of the more underrated players in fantasy. Did anyone realize he hit .313 with 29 homers and 107 RBI last year? He ranked in the Top-10 in the AL in batting and RBI, while placing 16th in home runs last year.

He’s only 26, but already has three .300 seasons in the majors, three seasons with at least 90 RBI and two with at least 20 homers. He’s got solid on-base guys ahead of him in the order to give him a solid shot at another 100 RBI and if Moustakas and Hosmer can hit behind him, he could creep close to 85 or 90 runs scored.

 

Fantasy Bust: Francoeur

He looked like a star for the Braves in 2006-07, but then struggled for three seasons as he was shipped between Atlanta, Texas, and the Mets. He had a revival in 2011 with the Royals before struggling again last season.

With a .235 average and .287 OBP and just 16 homers in 148 games, he wasn’t worthy of being a full-time outfielder last season, but the Royals had no choice but to stick with him. If Kansas City is truly a contender this year, expect them to go shopping for a right fielder around the All-Star break and Francouer will head to the bench where he belongs.

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Hosmer, Cain

Hosmer should have the season in 2013 that you expected in 2012, but will go later in drafts. If you plan to draft him at the spot you would have taken him last year, you should get him and reap the rewards of a comeback season.

Cain has yet to have a full season in the majors, but if he can keep his spot in the line-up he has the potential to be an undervalued speed and power guy. He could get close to 20 homers and 40 steals. There aren’t many of those guys around and Cain will last longer than any of them in a draft.

 

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Drew Stubbs: What Move to Cleveland will do

Steve Mims —  December 18, 2012 — Leave a comment
Get your Drew Stubbs autographed baseball while they're hot. Photo by Westchester.

Get your Drew Stubbs autographed baseball while they’re hot. Photo by Westchester.

As Drew Stubbs sped through the minor leagues averaging nearly 30 stolen bases per year while increasing his steals each season, the Reds thought they were getting a guy to put at the top of the order.

Yet when he got to the majors in 2009, he suddenly had more power than he had showed in the majors. So, Cincy thought they were getting a Mike Trout type of a player before anyone knew who Mike Trout was.

Cincinnati  wanted to keep him at the top of the order to take advantage of his steals and get some bonus pop into the line-up, but the increase in power quickly led to a decrease in his ability to get on base. Quickly, Stubbs was no longer a fit at the top of the order.

By the end of last season, the Reds moved him to the bottom third of the order and then he was recently traded to Cleveland so the Reds could get a more reliable lead-off hitter in Shin-Soo Choo.

Stubbs is more valuable than a No. 7 hitter, but not a good fit in the lead-off spot, so lets hope Cleveland can find a comfortable spot for Stubbs to exploit his skills.

He has a valuable skill set as he’s hit 20 homers and stolen 40 bases in a major-league season, but along with his batting average, those numbers have decreased in recent seasons. But let’s take a closer look to see what he might do in Cleveland.

 

The Good

Stubbs has stolen at least 30 bases in each of the past three seasons and finished in the top-10 in the National League in that category each year.

He averaged 18.5 homers in 2010-11 and was on pace to be there again if only his batting average had been good enough to avoid being benched at times by the Reds. He hit .267 with a .323 on-base percentage in 42 games after getting called up in 2009,  but those numbers have dropped off each season.

That drop-off was surprising considering his minor league success when he hit at least .268 with an on-base percentage of .353 in all three full seasons.

So he has shown the ability, in both the minors and majors, to hit for power, steal bases, and get on base, but hasn’t done that consistently in the last few years.

Sounds like a guy in need of a new team and a new league to get a jolt of confidence and that is just what Stubbs got this offseason.

 

The Bad

Stubbs’ batting average dropped exactly 12 percentage points in each of his first three seasons, from .267 to .255 to .243. Then it went off a cliff last year when he hit .213.

His on-base percentage was in the .320s during his first three years before falling to .277. His slugging percentage fell from .444 to .333 in just two years which helped his OPS fall from .773 to .610.

One thing that has remained consistent his his strikeouts, as he has 588 whiffs in 486 major-league games, a scary stat that it is hard to imagine gets much better.

 

The Final Verdict

At just age 28, Stubbs should be able to improve his stats across the board in all categories but strikeouts, which are probably destined to hover around 200 in a full season.

The trade to Cleveland seems to come at the perfect time for Stubbs, who has the skills to be a 20-homer, 40-steal guy.

Cleveland won’t need Stubbs at the top of the order because it has Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera and he’s probably best fit to bat fifth or sixth. That could cut down on his steals, but he should still steal at least 30 bases wherever he falls in the line-up and batting fifth or sixth should boost his RBI total.

The middle of Cleveland’s order isn’t exactly imposing with Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, and possibly Nick Swisher, so it is possible the Indians could try hitting him third and that would be a boost for his fantasy stock if he can hit well enough to stay there.

 

Mims’ Projection Range for Drew Stubbs

AB H BB R HR RBI SB AVG
Best Case Scenario 600 169 66 90 23 88 48 .282
Worst Case Scenario 400 84 45 63 11 41 22 .210
Actual Projections 500 126 53 79 20 69 37 .252

 

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