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Ask Nash: How Much is too Much for Matt Kemp?

Nash —  May 17, 2013 — 1 Comment
Photo courtesy of Matt Kemp

Photo courtesy of Matt Kemp

Nash,

Looking for some trade advice.

I just traded Nelson Cruz and Shelby Miller for Craig Kimbrel and Zack Greinke which I feel is a great trade for me.

I had someone knocking on my door, offering Matt Kemp for Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller. But since I just traded Shelby Miller, who would you include in that trade?

My pitching staff now looks like this: Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Max Scherzer, Hyun-jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Jhoulys Chacin, Justin Masterson.

Well, you’re right! As good as Shelby Miller and Nelson Cruz are, Craig Kimbrel gives you an ELITE closer that will bolster you in Ks as well. Actually, it’s a great trade if Zack Greinke performs at the top of his game rest of season!

Regarding Matt Kemp, I believe I speak with all the Crackerjacks when I say that you ALWAYS want to add ELITE talent to your team. This is a very good rule of thumb, and it goes along with another rule of thumb, always get the best player in the trade. Unless you play in a VERY deep league, there is always talent in free agency to fill your roster out with.

Kemp was a first round pick for a reason. He possesses 40/40 potential. Now he may be getting further away from his 40 steal potential so maybe 40/30 is more accurate. Also people are talking about his slow start, saying that he may not be be the MVP candidate any longer, and such.

However, elite guys find ways to get their numbers, so if he does make good he is in for a heck of a rest of 2013. Much like owners who are waiting on Josh Hamilton and David Price, you do not want to be the guy that trades away a struggling star to then watch him go on a tear.

I am not saying that guys never come through, Carl Crawford and Tim Lincecum are recent examples of guys that did not make good on their numbers. So it is in fact a risk. However when someone is not asking too much for an elite guy, I think you should always pull the trigger.

Jason Heyward is a fine player when he is healthy and confident, however his career has not been without it’s ups and downs so if the asking price is him and a middle-tier pitcher, you must make the move, no questions asked. It’s really that simple.

As for the other the pitchers you have — any of these arms would be okay to offer: Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Max Scherzer, Hyun-jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Jhoulys Chacin, and Justin Masterson.

That’s to say that I would part with anyone other than the newly-acquired and freshly returned Greinke, Yu Darvish, or Matt Moore. Actually, I’d give up Moore or Darvish, as well. But it would be tougher to give them up, so I’d try to part with the others first. If you can give up one of the other arms you possess, this move should have already been made!

In my opinion pitchers are the best deal sweeteners because you can almost always recoup the loss of stats in free agency, especially if you like to stream.

You can get great streaming tips from Dixon Picks. You can read Will’s past pieces about sleepers. You can read Pleiss I’d Roster That column. Or you can get in touch with any of us for advice on a specific player, or couple of players.

But this trade is a must make. If that’s all you’re giving up, you have to take a chance that you’ll get the best of a struggling star for the rest of the year.

– Nash

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Ask Nash: Trading for Pitching Upgrades

Nash —  May 10, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Richard Fahey.

Photo courtesy of Richard Fahey.

Nash,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question.

My pitching is a mess right now. I have Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada, John Lackey, and a bunch of bums after that. I do have Jered Weaver coming off the DL soon.

My offense is pretty stacked as of right now and as a result, I’m looking to deal an OF for some starting pitching. Right now, I’m looking at these potential deals.

  1. Shin-Soo Choo for Jaime Garcia and Tony Cingrani or Jeremy Hellickson.
  2. Shin-Soo Choo for Clay Buchholz and an undetermined player.
  3. Shane Victorino for Jaime Garcia.

I am willing to deal these guys because I have Nate McLouth to take their spot, and Mark Teixeira coming off of the DL soon.

I am leaning towards the first trade because I need pitching depth. Am I nuts to make this trade? I am not sure what the Reds plan is for Cingrani once Johnny Cueto comes off of the DL, so I am having reservations about it.

Thank you,

Pete

Pete,

The good news is that I would always rather be set on offense and needing help in pitching because it’s usually easier to bolster pitching, and any of these trades will do the trick. I would also be intrigued by the opportunity to grab Cingrani, as he has come on about as hot as anyone could have hoped.

However, I believe Choo is far and away better. So, the opportunity to obtain Garcia and only give up “The Flyin’ Hawaiian might be your best bet. If this were a dynasty league where you would now have Cingrani locked up until he’s 45, then I’d take that trade. BUT, if this is a win now move, you are in a far better situation only losing Victorino.

Regarding Cingrani, he should not be at risk of losing starts once Cueto returns. His danger is more facing an innings limit, as most highly-touted rookies do. Then again, he plays for Dusty Baker, who is about as old school as it gets and may not put Tony C on any sort of innings cap.

Homer Bailey is probably in the most danger in regards to losing some starts when the rotation gets crowded. So, Tony should be safe. Although, one does have to wonder if he can possibly keep this current stat-line up.

IP H ER BB K W ERA WHIP
24  15 7 5 33 2 2.63 0.83

It’s highly unlikely and if he levels off to finish with even solid numbers (3.00-3.25 ERA/1.15-1.35 WHIP) by season’s end, then his best starts are almost assuredly behind him.

With all of that being said, I firmly stand behind my preference to take Garcia for Victorino. You give up a little to upgrade your pitching just enough. With the return of Weaver, your pitching mess will hopefully get cleaned up.

Nash

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Ask Nash: A Second Base Blockbuster

Nash —  May 3, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

NASH!  I have a potential huge trade, I get Robinson Cano for Dustin Pedroia and Matt Moore, I have plenty of pitching, but is this too much for Cano?  

 

The quick response:

I am the biggest Pedroia fan out there, just ask Clave and Dixon, However if you can spare the pitching, then I say pull the trigger, especially if you’re in a keeper league. I think Cano is that much better than Pedroia rest of season, as Robbie should put up MVP-caliber numbers this season.

Nash

The explanation:

Much like last week’s question when the reader was giving up Josh Hamilton for Matt Holliday and Shelby Miller, I am still on the side of wanting the best player in the trade. However Robinson Cano for Dustin Pedroia and Matt Moore is a MUCH tougher trigger to pull than holding onto Hamilton at the sake of netting Holliday and Miller.

Matt Moore is the real deal, right behind guys like Madison Bumgarner and probably in front of Jordan Zimmermann. So if this guy did not specify that he has plenty of pitching I would have asked for his pitching situation. For me, any pitcher is the perfect deal sweetener, whether it be a starter, closer or middle relief guy. Most of the time those stats can be found in free agency or made up by streaming, even with a rising elite pitcher like Matt Moore.

Now if the trade would have been Dustin and Clayton Kershaw, you decline and say, “as if…” circa the mid 90’s.

However we have to look directly at the two second basemen here to really dissect this trade. Pedroia is either 2nd or 3rd at his position. Ian Kinsler may or may not fall in front of him year in and year out, but Cano is undoubtedly the number one guy at the spot. So when dealing with a trade up, you have to truly know what you are getting in return.

Cano is about as durable as they come, while Pedroia will most likely find his way onto the DL at some point. Or even worse he will try to play through a minor injury, compounding the issue and hurting your statline in the process. Pedroia will certainly steal more bases and probably finish with a higher average but Robbie will challenge there more than you think. Cano will easily match or beat Dustin’s run production, and homers he should beat by 10 and RBI won’t even be close, even with Dustin hitting in the 3 spot.

Cano is mashing so far and that Yankees’ lineup is brutal. If, and that is a BIG if, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixiera can come back strong to fill in around Cano, then Cano will really make a run at the AL MVP.

Preseason floor projections for Pedroia and Cano were something around:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

Cano

85

20

90

5

.265

Pedroia

85

15

65

15

.275

Now their ceiling projections were around:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

Cano

110

40

120

10

.300

Pedroia

115

25

95

25

.320

In my opinion is would be about a 10% probability that Dustin would hit his ceiling numbers, even if the pieces around him (Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury) continue to swing good bats and stay healthy (another big if). Cano hitting his ceiling is far more likely.

I just think these two players are at different places in their respective careers. Cano is truly still rising to his top years, and unfortunately for Pedroia, he peaked early. Or rather, unfortunately for Pedroia’s fantasy owners, as they are still hoping for his former MVP self to return.  

As a real baseball player Pedroia still offers so much. But as as a fantasy 2B, he offers much less. This does not mean that he is not the 2nd or 3rd best 2B, just that the disparity between he and the top 2B, Cano, is great enough to need to sweeten the deal to obtain Cano to your fantasy team.

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Ask Nash: Josh Hamilton’s Struggles

Nash —  April 26, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Patrick Herbert.

Photo courtesy of Patrick Herbert.

Nash,

Are you panicking about Josh Hamilton?  I ask because I am in need of pitching and was offered Matt Holliday and Shelby Miller, pull the trigger?

-Scott

Scott,

I am not panicking of Hamilton, actually the opposite. I am hoping to grab him in a buy low market. Personally, I would not give up Josh Hamilton for Matt Holliday and Shelby Miller. No matter how bad you need pitching, it is not worth it in my opinion.

Now that is not to say that Hamilton does not have a price to me, you just need to make sure you are not trading him out of panic and desperation. Really it is too early in the season for an all out panic on a first, or at worst second round talent like Hamilton. Clearly if someone offers you another first rounder for him you pull the trigger!  However that is not very likely, so we move into the second and third rounder range.

You say you need pitching, so if someone is willing to part with a top tier guy, I hope I don’t need to tell you to take it. Now if someone were to offer you David Price for Hamilton, you need to figure out how badly it hurts you to lose Josh, because Price’s bests start are most certainly ahead of him this season.

If Hamilton is to make some what good on his preseason projected numbers:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

93

37

111

6

.296

 Then he is sure to have a pretty good rest of season, because as it stands he is at:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

9

2

8

0

.222

Over the next five months if any player is going to produce these kind of numbers, it will be Hamilton:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

86

35

103

6

.307

These are also elite numbers, so we are talking about guys like Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Healthy Albert Pujols and Healthy Troy Tulowitzki. Guys like Matt Kemp, Mike Trout and Ryan Braun offer these numbers plus better steals, of course, and Robinson Cano should be on track to get you these numbers although the homers are a little high and average will be close.

And Giancarlo Stanton will get you the Runs and HRs and maybe steals, but not the RBI and AVG production. The thing of it is, most of these players have started out well, so some of their production is behind them. Just like the hot starts of Adam Jones and Justin Upton have put them as less valuable for a rest of season proposition.

Therefore if you were to take a hitter straight up for Hamilton, you need to get a top level elite bat, or another slow starter 2nd-3rd tier guy and hope they explode! Because otherwise you end up on the wrong end of a sell high buy low deal. Nobody wants to be there.

The point is, when dealing with a struggling star, you need to really understand what he is capable of.  A guy like Hamilton is still VERY capable at hitting is projected totals, and with a month behind us, that is a value amount of output!  Same as Albert Pujols last season, guys with their track records and ability can be relied upon!


Nash

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Ask Nash: Are the Red Sox Pitchers For Real?

Nash —  April 19, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Nash,

Do you think that Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are really set for a good year, or do you think they’ll come crashing down at some point?

Mark, Connecticut

Mark, this is a great question because these guys are not just off to a good start, they are basically lights out right now, AND they have shown to be aces or rising aces in the past. They have also had some rather pedestrian numbers as of late.

Let’s start with Jon Lester, in 2009 and 2010, Lester was an absolute STUD, posting 225 strikeout seasons with solid WHIP and ERA. The 2011 season was solid overall, and 2012 was less than solid, but still good. So owners began to wonder if Lester was seeing his career take an early decline.

It has happened to others, it may be happening to Tim Lincecum. However Lester is only 29, the reality is that he is still in a sweet spot for pitchers to regain their prior glory. What is most impressive with Lester currently is that his BB:K ratio is at 1:9, that is worth A LOT as he seems to be controlling the strike zone. Since being a 180+ innings pitcher, Lester has not had a bad season, so it is safe to assume he has righted his slow decline and may even return to his prime form from a few years back!

Moving on to Clay Buchholz we’ll see a bit more of a turbulent career. His early seasons in the bigs were not kind to him. His first “full” season (173.2 innings) was VERY good. Then came another short season because of injuries, but posted solid numbers.

Then he put together an above average 2012 only to come on this year and basically be an early season elite ace in the making.  A little tougher to wrap my head around as far as making him a sure thing rest of the season. Clay is a fine pitcher when he is on according to his track record, but he has two glaring weaknesses.

  1. He is not a high strikeout total pitcher H
  2. He usually boasts a 1:2 BB:K ratio.

He is right in line with that this season. This means he puts guys on base and relies on contact outs, which could very well spell trouble playing in the AL East.

Both these pitchers thus far have faced AL East opponents and fared very well. Granted the Yankees are just a shadow of what they usually are, and the Orioles do not seem to pose a realistic threat at the moment, and Toronto and Tampa, who should be the class of the division, are scuffling.

That said, these guys mowed right through these match ups, and their continued success depends on how they handle their division opponents.  All in all I would not suggest rushing to acquire these two as they are absolutely at a sell high price.  You do not want to give up a year in and year out ace, which would be a lateral move at best.

The best place to be with either of  these pitchers is the current owner. You are in a position to trade for a more sure fire pitcher or perhaps a need elsewhere. I would suggest shopping Clay for sure, as I doubt he maintains his ERA and WHIP rest of season, and his BB:K ratio will likely stay the same. You can certainly upgrade there. Lester on the other hand is a better hold on to option. He very well could be returning to his ace form, and I am sure you drafted him well after the other aces were off the board, so he is certainly found money!

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Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Replacing Yoenis Cespedes

Nash —  April 16, 2013 — 1 Comment
Photo courtesy of Rocor.

Photo courtesy of Rocor.

Fantasy owners of Yoenis Cespedes have to be saying to themselves, “here we go again”. YC has hit the DL and has been seen sporting a soft cast to protect his left hand.

Cespedes strained a muscle in his left hand in last Friday’s game against Detroit. Fortunately he will not be missing as much time as Jose Reyes (too soon?) and hopefully he can stay as close to a 15-day DL stint as possible.

Unlike an extended stay on the DL like in Jose Reyes or Zack Greinke’s cases, you do not have to scramble to make sure your team is in good shape for the long season ahead. The reality is that 15-day DL stints have become commonplace in today’s MLB, so any fantasy owner should be able and ready to make adjustments in these situations. The key to a 15-day DL adjustment is to remain working towards your stat goal progress.

If Jose Reyes or Zack Greinke causes a mid-level surgery to your team, an injury like this to Yoenis Cespedes should be nothing more than a bandage or some burn cream.

Some owners break their stat goals down from full season into halves, quarters or even down to month to month. Whichever you do, you need to be ready to do your quick math on what you need from a decent replacement for a 15-day loss of a key player.

A guy like Cespedes is typically good for a 9.5 runs, 3.25 homers, 11.25 RBI, and 2.25 steals in the 4 typical counting stats per month. You just need to cut that in half and you come up with 4.75-1.62-5.6-1.12 for a 15-day absence.

If you struggle to round your numbers, you are simply looking for 5 runs, 2 homers, 6 RBI, and 1 steal while he is out. As previously stated for the longer term losses of key players, it is unlikely that there will be just one player sitting in free agency to fulfill the need you have.  The one major benefit to just a 15-day DL visit is that you certainly can play the hot hand and or stream in players to help bolster your numbers.

This of course gets a little trickier in leagues with transaction limits or that use a free agent bidding system. In those league you are going to want to grab the best overall guy to hope you hit on your pick up. So for best available guys I have a list of names that I might be going after:

Available in 50% or more leagues:

Now to go over this list in brief, Jon Jay is the typical free agent outfielder pick up!  Year in and year out he does just enough to be the best OF in FA, but never quite puts it together for a whole season to stick on a squad. Jay is probably your best bet. With these other guys you have some intriguing pick ups,

Schierholtz seems to be all over it right now, He is at a nice line of: 8 runs, 2 homers, 6 RBI, 2 steals, and a.343 average/ so far this year. If he keeps it up he may just need to be kept around on your squad, even after Cespedes returns. In that case you could try to couple 2 players together to get an upgrade elsewhere.

For those of you in deeper leagues here are some guys that I like that should be available in any size league

Smith is a nice addition as he is sure to get plenty of at bats while Cespedes is out, BUT guys like Duda, Denorfia or Venable should be great pick ups as well and they aren’t at any risk of losing at bats, either. Any of these 8 guys can get you 5 runs, 2 home runs, 6 RBI and 1 steal in a two-week period. You just have to hope that this is the right two-week period.

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Fantasy Baseball: Replacing Jose Reyes

Nash —  April 16, 2013 — Leave a comment
Brandon Crawford might be a nice short-term replacement for Jose Reyes. Photo courtesy of John Pastor.

Brandon Crawford might be a nice short-term replacement for Jose Reyes.
Photo courtesy of John Pastor.

Well, if you are a Jose Reyes fantasy owner, then you are the same place I am in, scrambling to find a way to replace him in your lineup.  Watching the top rated SS go on the DL for 3 months is NOT a pleasant feeling.

However, this early in the season it doesn’t necessarily leave you dead in the water. Of course you are not just going to find a guy sitting in free agency that you can insert into Reyes’ spot and get the exact same production from. Also, the task of replacing Reyes in your fantasy lineup get markedly greater the deeper your league is.

If you are like me, you will have also looked around at potential trade options. Which again, will be a bit tougher in deeper leagues, as people aren’t all that eager to trade reliable production at a position like shortstop. Also, some leagues require 2B, SS and a MI (middle infield) position, and most leagues have UTL (utility) spot that they may have an extra SS in.

The key to this is, how much do you have to give up?  Well if you have any trade possibilities and need a second opinion, feel free to shoot me an email (nash@fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com) and I can tell you if you are giving up too much.

Most times it is a bit tough to throw out a blanket about who to trade for in one of these instances, so for replacing Reyes we are going to focus on free agency.

I immediately went to the free agency page of my leagues and found a few good options available: Jean Segura, Marwin Gonzalez, Zack Cozart and Daniel Descalso. Really, with Segura being available, I struck gold, and snatched him up!  Unfortunately he was available in less than 50% of leagues, so that means most of your Reyes owners were not so lucky.

Gonzalez, Cozart and Descalso are available in more than 80% of leagues though, so you should be exploring those options heavily.

Of those three, none seem to offer too much in terms of Reyes’ stolen base production. So if you were banking on the 30-40 steals from Reyes, you will have to look elsewhere. However, in the meantime, quickly grab one of these guys and see what happens, I would suggest going for Marwin, he is a bit more of a wildcard, BUT he could really come on to become a sleeper stud this season.

For those of you in deeper leagues, I have a short list for you as well:  Brandon Crawford, Ruben Tejada, Eric Sogard and Cliff Pennington.

Crawford has been off to the best start of these four players, and he should continue to produce well. He will get consistent at bats, and does not have much pressure on him. Even though he bats at the bottom of a National League lineup, he also has good players around him to be on base and hit him in. If he’s on base with less than two outs, the lineup will turn over to Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro. So, if crawford is available I say grab him up!

The nice thing about Sorgard is that he is likely to serve as the A’s primary 2B (while keeping his SS eligibility) as Scott Sizemore is done for the season. There is of course no guarantee that the A’s do not recall Jemile Weeks to share time at 2B, but as long as Sorgard is producing, he should get the bulk of the at bats.

Again, you aren’t going to get a perfect replacement of Reyes’ hopeful production of 110+ runs, 20+ homers, 60+ RBI, 30+ swipes, and a.300+ average. However if you can figure out a way to compensate at other positions, then any of these can help you.

The way I see it, perhaps you pick up Brandon Crawford, Crawford is hitting in the 8th spot for the Giants currently, with a few at bats in the 2 hole on Scutaro’s days off. If Crawford could move permanently into the 2 spot then he could really pick up some nice RBI production. If he could get his stats on pace with 75-15-75-10-.280, then you will have a little wiggle room to trade a solid RBI guy for a bit more a steals guy.

Of course, if you unload a Dan Uggla type for Jose Altuve, you are really shaking up your projected team stats. I am thinking a bit more a subtle move, like Josh Reddick for Shin Soo-Choo or something like that. You can recoup the loss of steals and not lose much else in the process.

Also, you must remember that while we do our best to set up or statistical goals in the preseason that we believe should win us our league championship, fantasy baseball strategy must be fluid.  You need to monitor closely the standings to make sure that your numbers will hold up, otherwise you will be scrambling to catch in areas later in the season.

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Ask Nash: Sleeper Closer Candidates

Nash —  April 12, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of slgckgc

Photo courtesy of slgckgc

Nash,

I play in a 10 team, 5×5 roto points league. NL players only. I opened the season with only Jason Motte for a closer and it looks like he might be headed for Tommy John surgery. I need a reliever who has a good chance of taking over the closer role for a while on an NL team. I have Antonio Bastardo for Philly and Mark Melancon for the Pirates. The rest of my staff are starters. Most set up guys are gone. Drew Storen, Kenley Jansen, Tyler Clippard, Luke Gregerson, Santiago Casilla, and others. So it should be pretty clear the owners in this league are quick to grab closers and guys with closer potential. Do you have any suggestions for some sleepers out there?

Thanks for the help.

This, in general, is a common Ask Nash type of question, with only a few, yet significant changes here and there.

  1. Most leagues aren’t in NL only leagues
  2. In most leagues, the majority of even elite set-up men are available

However, if you find yourself short on closers, I do have some solid across the board advice, followed by a list of potential sleepers.

First and foremost I am going to refer you back to one of my favorite pitching montras, “don’t pay for saves.”  Even though we are not drafting or bidding, this ALWAYS applies. Too often new and experienced owners alike, chase the category the need, in this instance, saves.

That will be your undoing as you well end up trading a young stud player, ie: Josh Rutledge for the current league leader in saves, Sergio Romo.  Now don’t get me wrong, Romo is a terrific pitcher, actually one of my favorites, and yes, Rutledge is struggling mildly this season so far, but you still do not want to chase the saves.

Now for this poor owner, it appears his league rivals are vultures on the waiver wire for any set up guy worth going after, and all of those guys above are very rosterable in any league format as they are very good pitchers. So who is left to go after?  Well, there are quite a few pitchers I like, and for the sake of this post I am going to list AL and NL players. If you are in a specific league like this guy, you can act accordingly.

Guys like Kelvin Herrera and Jim Henderson should be long gone in most leagues by now. If they are not, go get them! Like, now. You can come back and read the rest in a few minutes.

Meeting the challenge of finding the next closer comes not as much from looking at depth charts. It’s more about looking at peripheral stats like BB and Ks per 9 innings (BB:9, K:9),  When a pitcher is good in these categories, he will usually find his way into the save opportunities we all covet.

Generally you want a strikeout an inning (or 9:9), and 1:3 BB per 9 or lower. In short 3:1 K:BB works just fine. I also don’t get too caught up in ERA especially this early in a season, because 1 bad pitch can lead to a really ugly ERA. Over the next month that ERA can be down to a nicer number and you have gotten all the good production in that category. WHIP is far more important, I like a pitcher to carry a 1.2 WHIP at the highest.

So let me list off a few pitchers that are carrying these sort of numbers and should be available in pretty much any league:

Just to name a few.

In closing, once you have created a short list of guys to consider, then it comes down to depth charts.

Tim Collins, Bruce Chen and Aaron Crow are all on the same team AND they are waiting out Greg Holland AND Kelvin Herrera, so it may not be worth your time if you really need a saves guy in a hurry. Chad Gaudin may not be very close to an saves either, so these guys are just very good pitchers that will only help you with holds, but not saves for the foreseeable future.

Another thing to note is that when you have you short list, you may have had a loogies slip through, like Darin Downs. For those who don’t know, a logy is a left handed specialist. It’s not unheard of for a lefty to be a closer, it just is not very common, so you may be waiting a while for nothing in his case.  All in all the key to finding the next RP is finding a good pitcher and waiting for them to get the opportunities.

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Fantasy Baseball Reaction: Roy Halladay’s First Start

Nash —  April 8, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.

Photo courtesy of Tom Hagerty.

Roy Halladay is all over the place. Literally, if you saw his first start of the season against the Braves, the guy was all over the place.

Before that start, if I told you that Roy Halladay would throw 95 pitches, strike out 9 batters, walked 3, while giving up 6 hits, you might assume that his ERA ended up around 5.87 and his WHIP was around 1.17 assuming maybe he went 7 2/3 innings or so.  Well, you would be wrong.  Halladay only lasted 3 1/3 innings giving him a 13.5 ERA and 2.7 WHIP. He did own the outs, recording 9 of 10 with a strikeout.

The real question here is what Doc Halladay to expect the rest of the season.

You might be picturing Roy much like how Doc Holliday was portrayed in the Movie Tombstone by Val Kilmer. Barely able to get around on his own in the closing scenes, but was able to muster the strength for the final showdown with his personal rival Johnny Ringo. Well, I do not think that the coaches had to drag Roy Halladay out to the mound on Wednesday, or that he had tuberculosis

However that does not dismiss the fact that there were two very different pitchers on the mound. I noted in the preseason to wait on Halladay as he was going as high as the 4th round. Well for those of you who drafted him that high,

I told you so.”  You were not drafting THE ROY HALLADAY! You are drafting the much more human form of the once elite pitcher.  

Sorry.

This is not to say that he cannot right the ship. The guy still made a lot of bats miss. If he can work on his location and stay away from throwing a lot of pitches in such few innings, he’ll be fine. We also need to address that he was going against one of the more loaded lineups in baseball this season. The Braves have some serious bats with the Justin Upton, B.J. Upton, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman (now on the DL, but he was in the lineup), and Dan Uggla. I still haven’t mentioned an impressive debut from Evan Gattis. So for a pitcher like Roy, when the ball was hit, it was hit long and hard by these fellas.

I think that Roy Halladay’s body of work has to gain him some bad game equity. Surely owners should not be dropping Roy at the first sign of trouble. As it stands even in a bad start, Doc showed he still has to bullets in the chamber, pun fully intended.

Unfortunately for Halladay owners you will need to temper your expectations and maybe be a bit selective on when you start him until you have a better idea of which Roy Halladay you will be getting. Tonight will be a nice indicator, as he toes the rubber against the Mets.

In Miscellany , ,
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Send Nash Your Questions

Nash —  April 6, 2013 — Leave a comment

We all are hoping that you’re enjoying the first week of the baseball season and of course, the fantasy season.

If you’re familiar with the site, you know that every Friday, I take an Ask Nash question. The concept is simple, readers ask me for my opinion on something, I pick one question per week, and publish the question and my answer.

There are no guidelines and I’m never looking for anything specific. Any question about fantasy baseball will do.

Now, asking me a question will not guarantee that your answer will be published, but you will receive a response from me with the answer. All that I ask for is enough time to help. Please don’t send me an email five minutes before a game is set to start asking if I should sit/start a pitcher. That probably won’t work.

  • Email: Nash@fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com — This is probably the best way to reach me. Please make the title “Ask Nash.” We all know that emails can get sent into the Spam folder from time to time. If that happens, I’d like to be able to identify it. You could also email Clave (Clave@fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com) or Dixon (Dixon@fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com) with your questions. If they feel it’s something that many readers would benefit from, they may forward it on to me after giving their own answer.
  • Facebook: Contact me at our page. Private message, post on our wall, whatever works for you is fine for me. While you’re there, “Like” us, if you haven’t already.
  • Twitter: Feel free to drop me a tweet. I am not on Twitter a lot, and the character limit makes things tough at times. Still, if this is the best way for you to reach me, I promise that I’ll make it work. As is the case with email, you could also contact Clave, Dixon, or our site’s account. Please do try to include an alternate way to reach you, in case my reply takes more than 140 characters.

We hope you guys are all enjoying baseball again. I know that I am. I look forward to a season of interacting with our great readers out there.

In Ask Nash
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