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Ask Nash: Rookie Mistakes in Auctions

Nash —  February 15, 2013 — 2 Comments
If you bid big on Ryan Braun, be sure you're bidding on this one. Photo courtesy of Jibby7.

If you bid big on Ryan Braun, be sure you’re bidding on this one.
Photo courtesy of Jibby7.

Welcome back to Ask Nash. Those of you who joined us over the offseason are probably unfamiliar with this, so let me take a second to tell you what this is. Over the course of the year, I’ll receive different emails from readers asking for my opinion on something. It could be a trade, a sleeper, whether or nor some big name will turn a cold streak around, basically anything that pertains to fantasy baseball.

Every Friday, I’ll publish a question, with my answer. I’ll show you how to reach me with an Ask Nash at the bottom because right now, I want to get right to the first Ask Nash of 2013.

 

Nash,

What is the biggest mistake new players make in an auction draft?

Eric, Minneapolis, MN

Eric,

In my experience (as both a first time auctioner a few seasons ago and one who feeds off of people’s inexperience now) I would say that the biggest mistake is not doing a few mock auction drafts before hand. It is important to know what to expect when entering any draft, especially a first auction style draft.

Some guys, like Dixon and Clave, feed off of the adrenaline that gets pumping when guys start going off the board at ridiculous amounts. If you have never experienced an auction style draft, I might equate it to exactly how guys describe being a rookie in the NFL. Year after year, every rookie is asked “What is the hardest part about transitioning into the NFL?” and undoubtedly they respond, “the speed of the game!”. What they mean is the speed in which you have to act and react to a play, because the veterans are making decisions so much faster than rookies.

The same goes for a guy stepping into an auction draft. A guy is nominated and then the bidding begins, you may have only 2-3 seconds to decide if you want to bid 9-10-12-15 auction dollars on a guy and then he is suddenly out of your budget range. After a few rounds of this you may realize that you haven’t bought a player yet, but you haven’t even placed a bid.

So then you set out to be ready to make a good bid on the next guy, take the few seconds you have to adjust the minimum bid to double digits and prepare yourself to steal the next guy on the auction block. He is nominated and you strike. You appear to have scared everyone else off and as you watch the timer count down and you prepare to celebrate your purchase of Ryan Braun, for $22, literally a third of what you thought he might go for.

You then realize that you have just purchased Ryan Braun the CLOSER in the Angels organization, who hasn’t thrown a Major League pitch since 2007. You didn’t get a $22 steal, you got taken for $22. D’oh!

You think I am joking? Well, I’m not. It has happened to guys in a couple leagues I have played in. As much as I harp about being prepared for going into a draft nothing, and I mean nothing, prepares you better for an auction than mock auctioning.

Hope this helps, Eric!

Nash

 

Do you want to Ask Nash a question? Take any of the following steps.

  • Find Nash on Twitter.
  • Email him at: Nash@fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com
  • Go to www.fantasybaseballcrackerjacks.com. On the right, you’ll see Nash listed under the Crackerjacks. Click the “Ask Nash” button and go from there. 

I also realize that some of you may have a question that you want to remain private. That’s fine, just be sure to specify that. If I receive a query without that request, I consider it eligible for an Ask Nash.

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Michael Bourn Indians: A Fantasy Baseball Take

Nash —  February 12, 2013 — Leave a comment
You'd be surprised how few pics there are online of Bourn in Atlanta. Photo courtesy of Peter Bond.

You’d be surprised how few pics there are online of Bourn in Atlanta.
Photo courtesy of Peter Bond.

After a long wait, an Indian was Bourn…

Well Michael Bourn has finally signed, and to no one’s surprise he signed with the Yankees of the AL Central, the Cleveland Indians, er, uh, something like that.

Even still, the Indians have decided to use some of the money from their very lucrative television contract, which Clave mentioned in his team preview. Clave did a fantastic job writing about Indians in our team previews, and so I am going to focus mainly just on Bourn and maybe a few other top of the order guys in this post.

I would guess that the Order for the Indians might look a little something like this:

Pos. Player
1 CF Michael Bourn
2 2B Jason Kipnis
3 SS Asdrubal Cabrera
4 RF Nick Swisher
5 C/DH Carlos Santana
6 1B Mark Reynolds
7 3B Lonnie Chisenhall
8 C/DH/UTL Lou Marson or Mike Aviles
9 LF/CF Drew Stubbs or Michael Brantley

Bourn is a legit burner on the base paths, and the Indians sure were in need of one at the top of the order, as Michael Brantley isn’t exactly Willy Mays Hayes.  Speaking of Brantley, you can basically cross him off your draft lists for now (hopefully he was only a last round or dollar guy anyway), as he will not likely to get enough at-bats to be relevant this season. I would assume that he is the odd man out to start the season as Bourn will maybe split time to in CF and LF (to save his legs) and Stubbs is a solid back end of the line up guy because of his speed and power combo. Overall, Bourn is a substantial upgrade for the Indians and their leadoff position.

Bourn as the table setter for Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Nick Swisher gives a dynamic leadoff guy to maybe the most underrated heart of the orders in the MLB. Asdrubal and Swisher Are fine options as 3 and 4 hitters as they pack power and are both fairly patient at the plate.   The guy that stands to gain the most is Jason Kipnis, as Bourn is bound to be on second FAR more often that Brantley would have been, and that spells R-B-I opportunities for Kip. Kipnis was certainly a valuable player at the 2B as is, and now that he has to potential to add to his RBI total, he could be a guy that can earn a spot at the Top-3 second baseman table. Sorry, Dustin Pedroia.

In our projections for Bourn we had him at:

AB Runs HR RBI SB AVG
590 90 6 50 41 .286

Not a bad line at all, and certainly won’t warrant a fourth round pick for Bourn, which he was last season. So if you can get a Michael Bourn type of guy in the sixth round or later, you could have something to brag about.

Also, Bourn going to Cleveland isn’t the most exciting place for him to have landed. That however can play into the hands of us fantasy owners. People would have gone nuts for Bourn if had he ended up in a place like Texas (although they are set for a down year in team production) or even a big market place like New York (to the Mets, not the Yankees, of course). So Bourn’s stock could still be in a solid buy-low situation and he could be the real steal of the draft, pun fully intended.

As far as speed guy, Bourn is as good as they get, and kudos to the Indians for making a hard play at second place in the AL Central. I highly doubt they dethrone the reigning AL Central champs, the Detroit Tigers, even after this move.  Still, with a strong move like this, playing in potentially the weakest division in baseball and with the addition of the second Wild Card spot, the playoffs are in reach for just about anyone, especially the Cleveland Indians.

How does that impact fantasy? When players see the playoffs as a possibility, they are much more inclined to produce at a higher level!

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9 Guys That Will Give you a Complete Lineup

Nash —  February 7, 2013 — 1 Comment
You want Robinson Cano? He'll cost you a first round pick.

You want Robinson Cano? He’ll cost you a first round pick.

As we continue our countdown to our 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, I researched 9 guys who will provide you a competitive, well-rounded fantasy baseball starting roster, plus pitchers and bench you finish off your team.

I wrote a post like this last year and apparently I did well enough to be handed it again this year. Last year was my rookie year, I was relatively unknown and expectations were low. Now, just like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Wilin Rosario, and Yoenis Cespedes, I face higher expectations in my sophomore year. People know me more, so they can attack my weaknesses and avoid my strengths.

The key to creating a lineup is balance, you need a good mixture of power and speed production, old and young, sleepers and solid players and don’t go too heavy on one or two teams. If you were to load up on a bunch of young guns, you may be fine with the guys listed above, BUT if even half of those guys hit Sophomore slumps, you will be dead in the water. So again I say, draft for balance.Countdown 13 Graphic

Just to be clear, this is the best team that I would draft based on realistic projections (10 team). It would be nice, but you’d have a hard time fielding a team with Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, and Miguel Cabrera.

Listed below is my lineup, along with what round I would take them in:

Position Player Round
C Carlos Santana 8
1B Eric Hosmer 10
2B Robinson Cano 1
SS Jose Reyes 3
3B David Wright 2
LF Yoenis Cespedes 6
CF Jacoby Ellsbury 5
RF Hunter Pence 9
UT Mark Trumbo 11
Bench (1B) Anthony Rizzo 15
Bench (2B, SS) Danny Espinosa 16
Bench (OF) Torii Hunter 20

Now for the pitchers:

Position Player Round
SP Jered Weaver 4
SP Madison Bumgarner 7
SP Brett Anderson 14
RP Sergio Romo 12
RP Joe Nathan 13
Bench (SP) Wade Miley 17
Bench (SP) Edwin Jackson 18
Bench (SP) Jarrod Parker 19

I might be a little heavy on California Bay Area guys, so sue me. The teams are good, they are all legit options, and don’t act like you fans of poor teams like the Royals, Astros and Twins don’t make fan boy picks, too!

Nevertheless, I have tried to draft a team on balance and I believe this team is a contender. You have a solid group of bankable guys at your core with Cano, Wright and Reyes. You have some young studs like Cespedes and Trumbo, and a couple real nice picks on bounce-back guys such as Hosmer and Ellsbury. The offensive bench is a little deeper than I would draft, but that was for you guys trying to field more active hitters than just the nine spots we typically go with. Lastly, know many of you have extra CI and MI positions to worry about, so the bench is also for you guys.

Also I like this pitching staff very much. It may not look as nice on draft day when you see other squads with Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw as their aces, but I assure you, Weaver and Bumgarner will be as terrific 1-2 starting pitching punch as anyone else in your league has!  The real coup in this lineup is Rizzo on the bench, I have noted previously in our team by team projections that I am all in on Rizzo. He would make Hosmer expendable on this team, so you find the KC fan in your league, trade him Hosmer for another pitcher or something.

What is also important is that in the early rounds you should not reach, just take the guys who will be available and are towards the top of the list, they are all bankable so do not out-think yourself.

Past the tenth round is where you should reach, fill in for roster need, or take a chance on a breakout guy. It is important that you get the guys that you want because otherwise you will end up like the aforementioned KC fan impulsively trading for their favorite player midseason (I promise last joke about KC Royals fans).

All in all, it is smart to map out your picks before the draft, it can be as simple as writing your favorite players on a napkin, or it can be printed out sheets with tiers of players by position. However you choose to do it, just make sure to go into your draft prepared!

 

This is number 9, so here’s what you may have missed as we count down to our 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit:

13 Dollar Players
12 Bargain Bin Outfielders
11 Pitchers You Shouldn’t Touch with a 60’6″ Pole
10 Spot Starters Ready to Jump to the Next Level

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: San Diego Padres Hitting-Pitching Projections

Nash —  February 5, 2013 — 1 Comment
Chase Headley displayed great power in 2012. Will he do it again in 2013? Photo courtesy of SD Dirk.

Chase Headley displayed great power in 2012. Will he do it again in 2013?
Photo courtesy of SD Dirk.

San Diego Padres — Predicted Finish: Fourth Place, NL West

I do not want to say that the 2013 San Diego Padres are a bleak source of fantasy production, but I also don’t want to over value their players. They do have young stud, Yonder Alonso, who I have been tracking for about 3 seasons now.  He could be a good fantasy option if he has a true breakout season this year, but then again, he does not have much around him and he plays in a pitcher-friendly home park, so I do not see elite numbers in his near future. We also have Chase Headley, who is in the past few seasons has been a terrific 3B option. They also have a few other decent to good options in guys like Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Everth Cabrera and Will Venable, so let’s take a little closer look shall we?

 

Padres Offense:

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Everth Cabrera SS 26 S 555 77 3 40 45 .258
Logan Forsythe 2B 26 R 442 66 7 46 15 .265
Chase Headley 3B  29 S 578 81 19 84 16 .278
Carlos Quentin LF 30 R 471 74 27 84 1 .256
Yonder Alonso 1B 26 L 557 61 19 78 8 .285
Will Venable RF 30 L 499 70 11 57 25 .255
Cameron Maybin CF 26 R 523 81 11 53 29 .264
Nick Hundley C 29 R 325 34 8 42 1 .239

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Headley, Quentin, Alonso

The guys that should go in rounds higher than 10 are Headley, Alonso and maybe Quentin (depending on how deep your league is). Otherwise this team offers a lot of good late round or waiver wire options in guys with decent power and good speed. A guy like Everth could be a great late pick as a second shortstop at a MI or SS/2B position. Maybin is also an interesting late round pick, seems like we have been waiting for Cameron to turn the corner and become a legit OF option the past two seasons, so maybe this is the season?! He’s not a bad risk in the later rounds.

 

Padres Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Edinson Volquez 29 R 175 95 9 166 0 4.01 1.39
2 Starter Clayton Richard 29 L 205 49 11 121 0 3.90 1.27
3 Starter Jason Marquis  34 R 155 56 6 85 0 4.23 1.44
4 Starter Huston Street 29 R 55 12 1 56 30 2.9 1.04

Crackerjacks Fantasy Option: Street

The starting pitchers for the Padres are nothing to write home about, at all.  I mean I might stream in Clayton Richard and Edinson Volquez for a few starts here and there, but I wouldn’t draft them nor start them with any regularity. Richard is a safe and solid pitcher, but he will likely not gain you too many wins, and he does not get hardly any Ks, so if you are working with an innings cap or transaction limit, he is just not worth your time.

 

Fantasy Star: None

It is hard to see any of these guys as a fantasy “star”, Headley is mosy likely your best hitting option, and he hardly grades out as a star, also he is going to be under a different category for me in a few sentences. No starting pitchers here to name, as stated above.  I guess if I had to pick someone it would be Huston Street, Street can be a top closing option if he stays healthy, but that is a big if.

 

Fantasy Bust: Headley

I think that Headley has played himself into too high of expectations now. I do not foresee him building on his power output from last year (31 HR/115 RBI), in fact I see him regressing there. He is also not stealing as much as he used to, and I see that trend continuing. He also is not going to to ever best a .290 average, so he doesn’t offer much Lastly, don’t get stuck in the past with your thinking, the 3B is very deep these days. I would pass on Headley unless he drops past round 8.

 

Fantasy Sleeper: Alonso

The numbers above are conservative, I like this kid, I like him a lot!  I am hoping to grab him on the cheap and laugh all season while he puts up great numbers. I think he busts out in a big way, I am talking 90-25-95-10-.290/.300 way!  He will find himself hitting third by season’s end and will be the guy the Padres build around for the future, Adrian Gonzalez, who?!

 

More National League West Previews

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Milwaukee Brewers Hitting-Pitching Projections

Nash —  January 30, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Flickr user Jeramey Jannene.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user Jeramey Jannene.

Milwaukee Brewers — Predicted Finish: Third Place, NL Central

The Brewers are always one of my favorite teams to root for, maybe it is because I am marrying a Wisconsinite, or maybe it is because cheese curds are one of my favorite snacks, or maybe it is the simple fact that I typically field 2-3 Brewers on each of my fantasy teams, which is a distinct possibility for 2013.

Even though Big Prince Fielder is not longer around, the Brewers still have PLENTY of fantasy options. The Brewers aren’t as star-studded as say the Los Angeles Dodgers, or even top to bottom as solid as the Washington Nationals but they certainly provide plenty of value.

 

Brewers Offense:

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Norichika Aoki RF 31 L 534 83 12 54 28 .296
Rickie Weeks 2B 30 R 540 88 22 72 16 .252
Ryan Braun LF 29 R 605 105 34 107 23 .317
Aramis Ramirez 3B 35 R 570 82 24 94 4 .284
Corey Hart 1B 31 R 375 61 16 63 3 .272
Jonathan Lucroy C 27 R 463 59 14 68 4 .281
Carlos Gomez CF 27 R 426 58 13 51 29 .251
Jean Segura
 SS 23 R 427 58 6 43 33 .276

Crackerjack Fantasy Options:  Aoki, Weeks, Braun, Ramirez, Lucroy and Hart (when healthy)

Braun is a no-brainer. Weeks is a well balanced stat provider in homers and steals. Aoki is terrific for steals and a gem as a lead-off hitter in a good lineup, while Ramirez really seemed to be comfortable in his new surroundings last season. Corey Hart should fall to a dirt cheap or very late-round option because of his off-season injury, so pick him up and stash on your bench or DL spot and wait for his return. Jonathan Lucroy is a very good option at catcher, even in just 10-team leagues. Even Go-Go Gomez is a good option for steals and he will even pick up some homers with him.

 

Brewers Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Yovani Gallardo 27 R 205 74 12 208 0 3.47 1.27
2 Starter Marco Estrada 29 R 175 46 12 160 0 3.39 1.26
3 Starter Mike Fiers 28 R 155 48 10 155 0 3.43 1.27
Closer John Axford 30 R 65 31 1 82 35 3.32 1.35

Crackerjacks Fantasy Options: Gallardo, Axford

Gallardo may never turn the corner to become an ace. In fact he has been going a little bit the wrong direction the past couple seasons.  However he is still a valuable pitching option; you just need to avoid his starts on the road and against tougher opponents. Axford his a good closer with a high K rate, so you can certainly get some solid value from those two if you play your cards right.

 

Fantasy Star: Braun

Braun is without a doubt a guy that should be considered for the number 1 overall draft pick in any draft. He is certainly a Top-3 pick, and if he falls to four, draft him and laugh! Braun gives you terrific production in ALL categories and is a guy that you can bank on, even after the whole PED thing.

 

Fantasy Bust: Axford

If I must pick a bust guy, it would have to be John Axford. Axford has actually been one of my favorite players, he has maintained a high K:9 rate in his career, 11.39. He had a bit of a dip in 2011 (10.51) but he seemed to get back on track last season with a 12.09 last season. The thing with him is that he just hasn’t been so dominant the past few seasons, slipping k rate and his inflated ERA last season and all. Ergo, that’s right I said ergo, he is getting to that stage that some closers face, the stage of being replaceable. Look out for Jim Henderson to challenge Axford and his usual handlebar mustache.

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Gamel and Segura

Mat Gamel is a guy that can really benefit from Hart’s injury, he might be able to grab enough at bats to give it one last chance to make an impact in the show. His track record in the majors isn’t great though, so he is what we like to call in the industry a dark horse sleeper.  He is nothing short of a gamble, BUT if you are a gambling man, Gamel might just be a nice roll of the dice.

Another kid to really look at is Jean Segura, what we have up top is a conservative projections due to his at bats. However he can really be a nice find for teams if he produces, gets a lot of at bats and can at some point sneak into the one or two spot of the line up. Which could be likely as the Brewers are crazy heavy with righties. Jean can give them a solid right handed lead off bat, the Brewers could then slide Aoki into the two-hole as the ONLY lefty in the lineup once Hart is back full time. And it is not like Weeks is a sure thing to be a top of the order guy any longer. So for a nice sleeper, draft Segura late!

 

More National League Central Previews

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Chicago Cubs Hitting & Pitching Projections

Nash —  January 28, 2013 — Leave a comment
Castro looks to be one of only a few fantasy stars for the Cubbies in 2013. Photo by Flickr user Maggie not Margaret.

Castro looks to be one of only a few fantasy stars for the Cubbies in 2013.
Photo by Flickr user Maggie not Margaret.

Chicago Cubs — Predicted Finish: Fifth Place, NL Central

Oh Theo, are you regretting the move to Chi-town yet?!?

Your best…well…at least most recognizable player, Starlin Castro, is the antithesis of your batting philosophy exercised in Boston. YET if you trade him, you’ll need to get an ABSOLUTE haul or you’ll get chased out of town.

However not all is lost since Anthony Rizzo is on the rise!  You also have some nice complimentary pieces in Darwin Barney, Nate Scheirholtz and David DeJesus. Also if, and that is a big IF, Alfonso Soriano still has some missiles in the silo you might even be able to compete in your division, although that is not too likely.

The Cubs just need to rely on good old fashioned defensive baseball, especially considering their pitching. To call this staff mediocre is an insult to mediocre pitchers such as Brandon McCarthy, Dallas Braden, and Carl Pavano. Unfortunately good old fashioned baseball does almost nothing for you or my fantasy squads, so let’s get to the real details that matter.

Overall this team has a few solid fantasy options with some upside, but only a few.  

 

Cubs Offense:

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Starlin Castro SS 23 R 625 88 16 75 23 .304
Darwin Barney 2B 27 R 577 77 5 51 9 .270
Anthony Rizzo 1B 23 L 605 85 30 104 6 .289
Alfonso Soriano LF 37 R 522 62 29 96 5 .256
David DeJesus CF 33 L 512 68 11 53 5 .262
Ian Stewart 3B 28 L 412 54 12 43 4 .229
Welington Castillo C 26 R 346 38 13 47 0 .248
Nate Schierholtz RF 29 L 462 54 11 51 7 .265

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Castro, Rizzo

Castro and Rizzo are the guys on this squad to target, that’s a given, they both will be more than productive enough to draft relatively high.  I would also look at Barney and Soriano in deeper leagues as they can provide enough to make enough impact. I might also take a flier on Castillo in super deep leagues or if your catcher hits the DL, however he is a very last resort.  Also be aware of a potential platoon situation with Scheirholz, his numbers don’t grade out all that well even if he is the everyday right fielder but you certainly don’t want to grab him in a pinch if he ends up splitting time with Scott Harriston.

 

Cubs Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Matt Garza 29 R 195 65 10 164 0 3.78 1.31
2 Starter Jeff Samardzija 28 R 190 61 11 169 0 3.65 1.25
3 Starter Edwin Jackson 29 R 200 62 10 155 0 3.56 1.28
Closer Carlos Marmol 30 R 55 43 0 68 25 3.76 1.52

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Jackson, Samardzija

None of these pitchers are sure things, they aren’t even solid every start options to me. I would draft these guys knowing that I am going to use them at home and in good road matchups, at least for starters. The starters here have some strengths that would make me feel okay about drafting them.

I would draft Jackson and Samardzija because they are just work horses on the mound. Nothing stellar, just grinders. I would ambivalently take Matt Garza. He is a little less consistent than the other two BUT can have some killer games that would really help your fantasy staff. The trick is avoiding the really bad games he has. No other pitcher on this squad will end up on my fantasy teams, not even Marmol, but more on him later. 

 

Fantasy Star: Castro

Castro is a terrific contact hitter from a shortstop position, and who doesn’t need a solid SS?!  He can hit for above .300 average, double-digit home runs, and around 30 steals. He is worth a fourth or fifth round, pick or about 15-20 auction dollars, easy. Castro is my fifth ranked shortstop and really he is probably better than Elvis Andrus, but I just have taken a liking to Andrus so I can’t jump him with Castro. If you have Castro as your SS for next season, you should be more than happy with your production from a thin position.

 

Fantasy Bust: Marmol

He is just not worth the risk any longer. His K:9 rate is sliding rapidly, and he continues to walk more and more guys every year.  He is also nowhere near a safe bet in the ninth inning. In fact, if baseball were high school he would be voted “Most Likely to Lose his Closer Job by June.”

 

Fantasy Sleeper: Rizzo

Okay, I admit, this is a cop out. Rizzo is not a “sleeper”, but he is CERTAIN to out preform other guys you will draft around his value at his position. I will go out on a limb and say that he will finish as the fifth most productive first baseman by season’s end. Just imagine if he was in a legit lineup, he could post some elite numbers. As it is now I would expect 90-35-105-5-.290 if he has the season I would hope for!

 

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: New York Mets Hitting and Pitching Projections

Nash —  January 22, 2013 — 1 Comment
David Wright is the unquestioned star of the Mets.Photo by Keith Allison.

David Wright is the unquestioned star of the Mets.
Photo by Keith Allison.

New York Mets — Predicted Finish: Fourth Place, NL East

Meet the Mets!  Meet the Mets!  Step right up and greet the Mets.

The New York Mets aren’t much to look at this year,. Their roster is full of mediocre players with one legit star trapped in the middle of this lackluster lineup (some alliteration for Clave). I like David Wright. I like him a lot, actually. He is a still a top 3B, even though the position is substantially deeper than years past. Other than Wright, there just aren’t that many fantasy options here other than a couple of interesting sleepers.

 

Mets Offense:

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Ruben Tejada SS 23 R 524 57 1 36 6 .278
Daniel Murphy 2B 28 L 563 73 11 73 8 .298
David Wright 3B 30 R 565 87 22 90 14 .287
Ike Davis 1B 26 L 501 80 31 96 1 .269
Lucas Duda RF 27 L 518 59 19 78 2 .252
Mike Baxter LF 28 L 377 52 7 47 9 .276
Kirk Nieuwenhuis CF 25 L 397 61 11 43 8 .259
John Buck C 32 R 393 37 15 51 0 .224

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Wright, Davis

David Wright is an obvious pick, Ike Davis is a solid pick to hopefully fill a UTL or CI position, just not your primary 1B.  Also, I’m not saying that Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda are not fantasy options, only that they are best as contingency plans  Otherwise there really is not much to be excited about in this line-up until we get to some guys that need to prove themselves ready early on.  Baxter needs to play well to hold off Collin Cowgill from usurping his at bats. Same goes for Buck holding off Travis d’Arnaud, the stud prospect hitting catcher obtained in the R.A. Dickey trade.

 

Mets Pitching

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Johan Santana 34 L 185 61 11 162 0 3.98 1.24
2 Starter Jonathon Niese 26 L 190 55 10 153 0 3.46 1.35
3 Starter Dillon Gee 27 R 150 44 7 117 0 4.08 1.30
Reliever Bobby Parnell 28 R 70 19 3 59 0 2.70 1.34

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: See below

None of these guys are slam dunk options, Bobby Parnell is your closest safe bet at productivity, however he is nowhere near a secure closer position guy, as you can see by my predicted saves. Johan had some moments last season including one Mets fans have been waiting on for a long time, but really cannot be relied upon on an every start basis. Neise and Gee are fine spot start/stream options and they may turn the corner this year but only time will tell.

 

Fantasy Star: Wright

As stated above, David Wright is a no brainer for a fantasy stud on this team. He is the cornerstone of the Mets franchise and can be the cornerstone of your fantasy squad for at least one more season. The projections above are conservative in my opinion, so you can certainly draft Wright with the hopes of a 90-30-100-15-.300 line if he can stay healthy and comfortable at the plate. And of course, there is always the chance that they trade away Wright for more prospects and then his value could take a nice spike!

 

Fantasy Bust: See below

It is hard to peg a bust on this team as there aren’t many guys that you should have great expectations for. The only real thing to be concerned with is the aforementioned Wright and his health and happiness with the team this year. Otherwise be warned to have tempered expectations for any other Met on your fantasy squad.

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Cowgill, d’Arnaud

Collin Cowgill could be a mainstay in this New York outfield and lineup by season’s end. He should start the season as the fourth outfielder and take at bats in a platoon with Mike Baxter, handling the left handed pitching. If Cowgill can prove himself and take over the everyday duties he will be a very nice pick up after the drafts.

Since I kind of ducked the bust section I guess I could be kind enough to double up on the sleeper section. Travis d’Arnaud should be able to hit his way into the lineup at some point, he has the makeup of a professional hitter that would be the best hitting catcher the Mets have seen since Mike Piazza, but don’t expect Piazza batting average.

 

More National League East Previews

 

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Oakland A’s Hitting & Pitching Projections

Nash —  January 17, 2013 — Leave a comment
Reddick and Cespedes will be fixtures for the A's offense again.Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Reddick and Cespedes will be fixtures for the A’s offense again.
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Oakland Athletics — Predicted Finish: Second Place, AL West

Well last season, the A’s out-performed anyone’s wildest expectations, even after bringing like Coco Crisp back, and bringing in the Cuban phenom Yoenis Cespedes!  Billy Beane worked on under the radar trades Josh Reddick and in-season acquisitions such as Stephen Drew, as he normally does. This offseason is much of the same as he traded for Chris Young at a discount price and signed Japanese player Hiroyuki Nakajima to fill the void at shortstop. However, the trade for C.Y. has created a bit of a log jam in the Oakland outfield, even after trading away Collin Cowgill, a prize piece from of last season’s trades.  

So what does that mean for guys like, Cespedes, Crisp, Young and Reddick? Well that will be of the utmost importance for us as fantasy owners. There are lots of rumors swirling around a Coco Crisp trade, however until that actually happens, we can assume that the odd man out is Chris Young and that Coco will lead off. So let’s take a look at what we might get from the A’s this season shall we?

 

Athletics Offense:

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG
Coco Crisp CF 33 S 425 63 9 46 36 .266
Hiroyuki Nakajima SS 31 R 492 71 10 53 11 .279
Yoenis Cespedes LF 27 R 537 81 28 88 16 .291
Josh Reddick RF 26 L 523 79 24 84 9 .250
Brandon Moss 1B 29 L 489 74 24 79 3 .264
Josh Donaldson 3B 27 R 475 64 17 67 9 .247
Seth Smith DH 30 L 458 58 15 56 4 .259
John Jaso C 29 L 350 48 15 58 4 .266
Scott Sizemore 2B 28 R 489 71 8 48 9 .261

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Crisp, Reddick, Cespedes

These three guys are solid or better fantasy contributors, a guy like Chris Young would be too if he appears to be getting regular at bats, depending on where he hits in the lineup. I also like drafting Moss at the end of drafts (late round or for a dollar) and seeing if he can build on last season.

Donaldson had built up a fair amount of ownership last season due in part to his solid hitting but mostly because of his catcher eligibility. Unfortunately, he no longer qualifies at catcher so unless you have your 3B hit the DL he should not be your third baseman. Also, Hiroyuki Nakajima is a real wild card. He has been a solid contributor his whole career in Japan, however, as we saw recently with Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Japanese players do not always translate well into the MLB.

 

Athletics Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Brett Anderson 25 L 180 44 11 140 0 3.65 1.25
2 Starter Jarrod Parker 24 R 200 72 12 164 0 3.33 1.32
3 Starter Tommy Milone 26 L 190 43 10 162 0 3.60 1.21
Closer Grant Balfour 35 R 70 27 1 75 31 2.96 1.11

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Everyone listed

More on Balfour shortly. But something to remember is that the A’s do have a very deep pitching rotation all the way through the minors. These are good guys to look at to roster, but if they struggle early, don’t be surprised to see them moved to the bullpen. Oakland has the depth to do it.

 

Fantasy Star: Cespedes

If you own Cespedes in a keeper league, congrats. If you are in a re-draft or start fresh league, then I would say draft this kid.  Like always you don’t want to overpay or draft him exceedingly early, BUT, if this guy gets a full workload 575+ at bats, AND builds on last season, then he could become ELITE in just his second season. I am truly optimistic about him next year, so no warning about sophomore slump…ok…small warning. However, Cespedes showed the willingness to work on his flaws as a hitter as pitchers started to catch on to them.  If he continues to work then he will have a very productive career!

 

Fantasy Bust: Balfour

Balfour held the title as “closer” at two different times last season, which means he lost it once.  I would be wary of drafting him high, as he may not hold the position if he begins to stumble. The A’s have another option, as well.

 

Fantasy Sleeper: Ryan Cook

Which brings me to my sleeper pick, Cook. He is a flame throwing youngster that had a terrific season last year. He did fizzle a bit in the later months, but he was only a rookie, so he should be ready to come back strong. He had a K:9 of 9.82 last season, and though he may regress, I would still fully expect him to be above 9.0.

In closing, I fully think that what you see is what you get with the Oakland A’s, no big surprises in that lineup, and very solid pitching. The thing to watch for is of course Coco Crisp to be traded. His value would most likely be a little impacted depending on where he lands, and it would create an opening for everyday at bats for Chris Young. As well as it will create an opening at the top of the A’s order, most likely that opening could be filled by C.Y. as he has lead off for Bob Melvin before.

 

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Texas Rangers Hitting & Pitching Preview

Nash —  January 16, 2013 — Leave a comment
The Rangers are a team in transition, but stalwart Ian Kinsler is the clear star. Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison

The Rangers are a team in transition, but stalwart Ian Kinsler is the clear star.
Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison

Texas Rangers — Predicted Finish: Third Place, AL West

The Texas Rangers are at a crossroads. They were the class of the American League in 2010 and 2011. While 2012 was a good year in Arlington, they failed to make it past the Wild Card game. Worse for 2013 is that they lost perhaps their most recognizable player, Josh Hamilton, to free agency, to a division rival, no less.

Their starting pitching is inexperienced and average, at best. Their lineup lost Hamilton and two more above-average hitting contributors in Mike Napoli and Michael Young. On the bright side, they are also sitting on two heavily hyped prospects in Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar. But with the addition of free agent Lance Berkman, it appears that the lineup is set to be without those two young bats to start the season.

So where does that put the Rangers? Well as we take a look at their potential opening day lineup, it honestly baffles me that they would slide Berkman in and hold out Olt and Profar. As you can see, we have them placing third in their own division, which they could do with those ywo prospects and gain them valuable at bats. Over the past three plus years, the Rangers have been one of the better lineups to draft onto your fantasy team, however, this year they might not be as safe a bet.

 

Rangers Offense

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Ian Kinsler 2B 31 R 580 104 25 70 25 .269
Elvis Andrus SS 24 R 601 96 5 54 30 .290
Lance Berkman DH 37 S 268 43 13 43 2 .283
Adrian Beltre 3B 34 R 554 84 29 92 1 .300
Nelson Cruz RF 32 R 515 74 25 87 10 .269
A.J. Pierzynski C 36 L 474 54 18 64 1 .278
David Murphy LF 31 L 434 57 13 57 11 .292
Mitch Moreland 1B 27 L 332 43 14 45 2 .265
Leonys Martin CF 25 L 374 48 7 40 16 .283

BONUS!!

Player Name Pos. Age Hand AB R HR RBI SB AVG.
Mike Olt 3B (1B) 24 R 226 28 11 39 2 .269
Jurickson Profar 2B (SS) 20 S 479 54 14 59 18 .265

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Andrus, Kinsler, Beltre, Cruz, Murphy

Clearly there is enough with this lineup to keep Washington busy for the next few months. They need to figure out their lineup and they need to do so fast, as the AL West is getting tougher to compete in. Looking at their options, it appears to me that they do not have a clear cut three-hole option. The fact of the matter is Berkman has had two injury ridden seasons in the past three and will be 37 on opening day. By my numbers, he doesn’t stand to exceed 300 at bats. In case you were wondering, Berkman batting third comes from Drew Davison of the Star-Telegram.

 

Rangers Pitching

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Yu Darvish 26 R 215 88 11 248 0 3.30 1.24
2 Starter Derek Holland 26 L 185 58 10 153 0 4.28 1.29
3 Starter Matt Harrison 27 L 200 59 12 126 0 3.65 1.34
Closer Joe Nathan 38 R 65 17 1 77 33 3.04 1.08

Crackerjacks Fantasy Options: Everyone listed.

The Rangers pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired, Yu Darvish should be a fine pitcher on any staff, however don’t be deceived by him being a number one starter; he won’t be a fantasy ace. This rotation and bullpen is filled with guys that should be second, third, and fourth tier guys on your team’s staff.

 

Fantasy Star: Ian Kinsler

Kinsler is just an elite player, at a thin position, and is a lock for a 20/20 season. What I suspect is that perhaps Kinsler can finally make his way to the heart of the order this season. If he does, then he will bring up his RBI total to an absolute star level. Think of 90-20-90-20 season from Kinsler. I can see Clave salivating at the thought.  A

lso, I think with Kinsler it is far better to trust his good plate discipline rather than his inconsistent average. If you add a .280 average with that stat line above, that is your number one second baseman.  However, there are a lot of moving parts to that outcome.

 

Fantasy Bust: Lance Berkman

I guess if your expectations for Berkman are like mine above, then he really isn’t a bust candidate. However, I just want to make sure that if I have to eat crow, I REALLY have to eat crow!  So I cannot imagine you will get worst stats from any other opening day 3 hitter than you will Berkman.

 

Fantasy Sleeper: Olt and Profar

Much like Berkman, these guys don’t really fit their given titles here.  They are hyped prospects that should live up to their potential if given the at bats. This will most likely happen for them with the injury potential on this Rangers club. I would certainly draft either of those guys and stash them on my bench, Profar preferably then Olt. I think it is always wise to make room on your bench for at least one prospect, especially if they are as highly touted as these kids.

 

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Chicago White Sox Hitting-Pitching Projections

Nash —  January 9, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo Courtesy of Keith Allison.

Chicago White Sox – Predicted Finish: Third Place, AL Central

The Chicago White Sox are an interesting team for fantasy purposes. They have a few burgeoning younger talents in Alejandro De Aza, Alexei Ramirez and Dayan Viciedo. They also have two of the more bankable older players in recent history with Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn and they also boast a guy that has always teased us with superstar potential, Alex Rios.

However, none of these guys are a slam dunk as a solid contributor for your team next year. To paraphrase Tom Hanks as Forrest Gump, “The Chicago White Sox are like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.”

These guys have certainly had some ups and downs in production the past few seasons, and none of them grade out as Top 3 round talent.  These are guys that I would wait on, every one of them, even down to my superstar pick, whom I will reveal at the bottom of this article. The key to early rounds is getting guys that you can really build around, they need to be a little more bankable than these guys will be next year. This even goes for the pitchers who are listed below, Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, Addison Reed and company are solid with great potential for next year, but they are SO much more valuable if you can get them past the fifth round

Timing is everything when it comes to the White Sox players, trust me.

 

White Sox Offense:

Pos Age Hand AB Runs HR RBI SB AVG
Alejandro De Aza CF 29 L 529 89 11 56 26 .294
Jeff Keppinger 3B 33 R 436 47 8 42 1 .284
Alex Rios RF 32 R 577 84 21 76 22 .279
Adam Dunn DH 33 L 506 71 31 81 1 .205
Paul Konerko 1B 37 R 539 72 30 91 0 .301
Dayan Viciedo LF 24 R 543 68 23 76 1 .262
Alexei Ramirez SS 31 R 597 70 13 72 15 .269
Tyler Flowers C 27 R 476 44 19 39 0 .241
Gordon Beckham 2B 26 R 501 61 13 53 5 .238

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: De Aza, Rios, Konerko, Ramirez, Dunn, Viciedo

The one guy to note here is Dunn. He might be a good source of power once again, but you’re really going to have to gear your team to compensate for his batting average.

 

White Sox Pitching:

Role Player Age Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Chris Sale 24 L 200 56 16 216 0 2.74 1.09
2 Starter Jake Peavy 32 R 190 62 14 180 0 3.74 1.18
3 Starter John Danks 28 L 180 56 13 138 0 4.05 1.30
4 Starter Gavin Floyd 30 R 180 66 13 141 0 4.25 1.36
Closer Addison Reed 24 R 55 16 2 66 33 3.76 1.11

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Sale, Peavy, Reed

Danks and Floyd are typically very good stream options or worth rostering in deeper leagues.

 

Fantasy Star: Rios

Alex Rios is a guy that constantly toys with his fantasy owners, as he has shown flashes of brilliance along with some very forgettable seasons.  With what we saw from Rios last season, and given where some of the possible alternatives are with this team, Rios is the logical guy to hit third.

Given that opportunity with some of the burgeoning talent on this weirdly old club, Rios could pay big dividends to fantasy owners. Perhaps 30/30 is a little out of reach for Rios these days, however, I would certainly hope and plan for him to provide somewhere around 25/25.  It may take a lot of help from his friends, but if Rios can build on last year with another good season, he could provide somewhere around a 95 runs,25 homers, 100 RBI, 25 steals, and a .300 average (all closer to ceilings, not expectations for him), that would be a pretty darn good season from a guy that should be available around $12-15 or in rounds 6-7 in most 12-team drafts. This makes him a steal!

 

Fantasy Bust: Dunn

Adam Dunn had a bounce back in the power department last year, rewarding the owners who nabbed him for a dollar or in the last round of a draft. However, the season prior to this showed us exactly the damage a guy like Dunn can do if he has a bad year. He decimates your batting average while providing no power, that is a recipe for disaster. The fact is that Dunn is another year older, his bat is a little slower, and he is not worth the pick or money he will cost if people are paying for a 35+ home runs for.

That being said, if you are drafting with like-minded people and Dunn falls into the rounds past 15-16, I would take a chance on him in case he does have a little powder left in the barrel. Who wouldn’t like an additional 30 or so home runs from a guy that late in the draft? However it is not so much the rounds or even the money you would spend on Dunn as much as it is the guys that are still available that are similar.

If guys like Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena or Justin Morneau have fallen late into drafts, I would take each of these guys over Adam Dunn.  Essentially these guys are all about the same type player at this stage in their careers. Although Morneau has held a much higher batting average in his good seasons than the rest, and LaRoche has been on a steady incline the past three full seasons he has played. Those two are a slam dunk over Dunn, Pena is much more of a toss up, but still a better pick than Dunn

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Vicideo

He could be a steal late in drafts, although he should be on more radars after his 2012 campaign, as he hit 25 home runs at 23 years of age. Viciedo could very well end up hitting out of the heart of the order, although he needs to work on his contact and average to be very effective from that spot. This team is aging, and there are very few options with power on this team, and his even his .255 average last year was .051 better than Adam Dunn.

If we look at what DV posted as batting averages in the minors, he hit over .280 total and over .300 in that short stint in the show during the 2010 campaign. Now, dating back to his call-up in 2011, he has hit a lean .255, which is fine if his power increases to the 35 homer range.  As it stands I would be hopeful for a 30+ homer season with the chance at Viciedo hitting closer to .275.

It might be a little optimistic, but when you consider this guy could much later or for much less than guys like: Nick Swisher, Nelson Cruz or Garrett Jones and you could end up with similar or better stats, that’s what I call a sleeper.

 

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