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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Boston Red Sox Hitting-Pitching Projections

Nash —  December 31, 2012 — Leave a comment
Ortiz and Pedroia

Ortiz and Pedroia are stalwarts on a much different looking offense.
Photo by Flickr user Eric Kilby.

Boston Red Sox – Predicted Finish: Fifth Place, AL East

The Red Sox have made A LOT of moves starting last season and through the winter meetings. We now need to examine what all those moves have meant to their players’ fantasy value. The Red Sox are loaded with question marks, from the top and their oft-injured superstar leadoff man, Jacoby Ellsbury, to the hope of a solid season from the newly acquired Shane Victorino. They also have a few potential timeshares or handcuffing situations to be aware of at shortstop and catcher.

Then we have the worry that it is finally the season David Ortiz slows down or how the back end guys fare with a full season of at-bats. I would certainly say that at-bats is the the key for ALL of the Boston hitters this year. The one nice thing about Fenway is it is a hitter friendly park, however, if the Sox cannot make good on a few of these question marks, they can easily find themselves as the embarrassment of the the AL East.

Let’s take a look at some numbers, shall we?

 

Red Sox Offense

Pos Age Hand ABs Runs HRs RBI Stls Avg.
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 29 L 524 92 19 56 32 .298
Shane Victorino LF 32 S 571 81 14 60 32 .262
Dustin Pedroia 2B 29 R 585 92 16 69 19 .303
David Ortiz DH 37 L 498 82 27 91 0 .277
Mike Napoli 1B 31 R 377 60 26 63 3 .257
Will Middlebrooks 3B 24 R 496 72 26 89 11 .278
Stephen Drew SS 30 L 353 49 8 40 3 .249
Jonny Gomes RF 32 R 335 51 17 54 5 .248
Jarrod Saltalamacchia C 28 S 367 50 19 53 0 .226

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: Ellsbury, Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, and Middlebrooks should all be valuable plays.

It will be interesting to see how things pan out with Stephen Drew, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jonny Gomes. You’d think they would will get close to the 500+ at bats you’d hope for opening day lineup guys, BUT none of them have done so in the past three seasons. Also, a guy like Drew has to hold off a youngster like Jose Iglesias, who would be the logical replacement for him if he hits the DL at some point in the season.

Editor’s Note: We are aware that Mike Napoli has not yet officially signed with the Red Sox. But that’s a deal that was already agreed to, rather than a rumor, so we do feel comfortable including his name in the lineup. We are aware that the deal may officially fall through and if that happens, check back for updated projections.

 

Red Sox Pitching:

Role Player Age  Hand IP BB W K SV ERA WHIP
1 Starter Jon Lester 29 L 200 74 14 173 0 3.65 1.35
2 Starter Ryan Dempster 36 R 185 64 11 165 0 3.84 1.29
3 Starter Clay Buchholz 28 R 195 74 12 165 0 3.83 1.35
Closer Joel Hanrahan 31 R 55 24 1 56 31 3.10 1.32

Crackerjack Fantasy Options: These three will all bring value. I wouldn’t look beyond those starter for two reasons.

  1. Looking beyond the third starter of any staff is a risky fantasy play.
  2. The Red Sox pitching staff isn’t that deep.

I expect Hanrahan to get the nod over Andrew Bailey at closer, but Bailey is a guy to watch if Hanrahan gets hurt, or performs poorly.

 

Fantasy Star: Pedroia

Of course my star is Dustin Pedroia, I am a HUGE Pedroia fan.  Although I have to give a somewhat unbiased opinion of how I think the projected third hitter for the Red sox will fare. With that, I think if you are only able to grab one three-hole hitter on your roster, this is not your guy. Pedroia is a tough gritty player that wills himself to perform at a very competitive level. However Pedroia tends to try to battle through injury, this typically leaves you with one or two dry spells of production.

What I do like about Pedroia, is that he is with a doubt one of the top-three second basemen in the game. Although position scarcity should not be a main factor in drafting, it can mean a huge difference in stats throughout the season when it comes down to nabbing Pedroia early or passing and having to roll with Chase Utley as your 2B.

Lastly, IF Pedroia can stay healthy and productive throughout the season, then he can very well be a 90 run, 20 homer, 100 RBI, 20 steals .300 guy. It may not be likely that he stays healthy, but that is incredible potential.

 

Fantasy Bust: Shortstop Position

I just think with the signing of Stephen Drew, that Drew nor Iglasias are going to nail down the full time at-bats needed to be an impactful season-long fantasy player. At bats are the most important thing in factoring value of fantasy players and if each of these guys only gets 300 at bats, there is no need to draft either player.

 

Fantasy Sleepers: Daniel Nava

With guys like Shane Victorino, Jonny Gomes and Jacoby Ellsbury as the outfielders in front of him, I’d expect PLENTY of at bats for Daniel Nava in 2013. He also showed that he can produce when in the lineup last year, so I would certainly go after him if any one of these guys hits the DL, or if you need a replacement outfielder in a pinch.

 

More American League East Previews

 

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Why you don’t Overpay for Saves

Nash —  December 21, 2012 — Leave a comment
The Cubs do not figure to win many games in 2013. Only one reason why you shouldn't go crazy to get a guy like Carlos Marmol.Photo courtesy of Flickr user Matt Straton.

The Cubs do not figure to win many games in 2013. Only one reason why you shouldn’t go crazy to get a guy like Carlos Marmol. Photo courtesy of Flickr user Matt Straton.

You have undoubtedly heard the fantasy baseball adage at some point, “don’t pay for saves”, but do you know the “why”?

Maybe you didn’t need to know the exact logic behind this because you completely trust what the Crackerjacks tell you to do (I get that because after all, we are the experts). However, you should always want to know the logic behind these cardinal rules of fantasy baseball so that:

  1. You can understand how to build your team
  2. You can identify the exceptions.

What “don’t pay for saves means”, is exactly that, you don’t need to worry about the save statistic, especially in the early stages of any draft.  What it does not mean, is “do not get good relief pitchers.” On the contrary, relief pitchers are as important to your fantasy baseball success as any position, perhaps even more so. Certainly the MRI strategy is fully endorsed here, it is not only a way to pick up cheap saves, but it can even replace an ace pitcher like a Clayton Kershaw!

There reason that saves should not be chased, is because it is a stat wholly dependent on situation. If a guy is not pitching in the ninth inning or later, with a lead of three runs or less and gets the final out then he is ineligible to receive a save. Sorry Brett Myers, or anyone who will be closing for the Astros next season (cough) Jose Valdez (cough). Also, the fact remains, that closers are the highest turnover position in the majors, thanks Tony LaRussa. With the exception of Mariano Rivera and now a few others, there aren’t many guys that are irreplaceable midseason.

Now the main points of this are again, to understand how to build your team and to be able to identify the exceptions.

First, how to build your team. You want balance. With offense it is a little easier to achieve an across the board contributing lineup because you typically have more active roster spots and most guys contribute at least something in every category, and even if they don’t you can balance them out with opposite skill set guys.

Pitching on the other hand is a whole different animal. Depending on your league’s categories specific guys fit specific needs. If your league has quality starts in the mix, you have a little more need for starting pitchers than say if your league using holds, which will force you to employ at least one middle relief guy. As it stands, in a traditional 5×5 you need to have some starters and a few relief pitchers because you never want to punt a whole category in a 5×5 league.

This does not mean you need to have closers, specifically. But you probably cannot go a whole season without starters, because you just wouldn’t come up with enough Ks, possibly wins, and your ERA and WHIP are more vulnerable to a few bad outings messing up the whole situation.

I personally don’t put much money at all into pitching, for the simple fact that I am active an am sure to find plenty of pitchers on the waiver wire throughout the season. If you like to put it into cruise control then you are going to need to spend some money everywhere.

An ace pitcher, will of course give you terrific stats as the foundation of your rotation. However I would not spend the money on a Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw, when a Matt Cain or Cole Hamels will do just fine. Then with a little activity on the wire and perhaps a few middle relievers sprinkled in, you will be set!

Just look at what three middle relief pitchers that were available in EVERY league last year would have meant your team:

IPs Ks Wins Saves ERA WHIP
Dale Thayer 57.2 47 2 7 3.43 1.14
Javier Lopez 36 28 3 7 2.50 1.42
Juan Cruz 35.2 33 1 3 2.78 1.63
Combined 129.1 108 6 17 2.99 1.34

These guys are not even close to top tier middle relief talent. and I have to assume that these numbers would have helped your pitching last year.

The next main point in understanding why we don’t pay for saves, is to identify the exceptions. What I have been eluding to is that we want quality pitchers on our team, and a stat like saves is just the icing on the cake. The guys listed above have a little less control than I normally like, say compared to guys like Sean Marshall, Wilton Lopez or Ryan Cook.

Nevertheless they are effective and they are pretty close to 9 Ks per 9 innings. I like my pitchers to carry a 1:1 K:9 ratio, or thereabouts. Again, if you have a guy that is 2:1 then you can take a hit on another safer pitcher.

Although my overall point is that you can indeed end up with very quality relief innings coming from guys later in drafts, there is always the room for a few exceptions.

First and foremost is Craig Kimbrel, and he’ll probably be that way for the next decade. Kimbrel is a strikeout machine (116 Ks in 62.2 innings for a 16.66 K:9) and his numbers across the board justify him being the first relief pitcher off any board. Another stud relief pitcher is Kenley Jansen, who posted 99 Ks in just 65 innings to boast a 13.71 K:9. It also appears that Jonathan Papelbon is back, with his security of the closer job in Philadelphia and his K:9 at a solid 11.83, we certainly have a few great options for stud relievers.

So now you understand the reason why we “don’t pay for saves”, but better yet, you understand exactly what you should be paying for.

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Kevin Youkilis Yankees: Expect Small Fantasy Resurgence in Pinstripes

Nash —  December 11, 2012 — Leave a comment
Youk

New York Youkee. Image from flickr.

Kevin Youkilis in Yankee pinstripes? Yup. According to Ken Rosenthal, Youkilis has signed a one-year, $12 million contract with New York.

Now, Youkilis is one of my favorite fantasy players. This is because I primarily play in leagues that count either walks or OBP and in those categories Youk can make up a lot of ground compared to other third basemen who thrive in more traditional fantasy categories..

However, Youkilis has been on a bit of a decline the past few seasons. Okay, that is a bit of an understatement.

The Greek God of Walks is fading, and fast.

At one point in his career, Youkilis look was looking like the next big masher at corner infield. Unfortunately, Youk has yet to make good on his burgeoning that we saw in 2008 (29 homers, 115 RBI) and 2009 (27 homers, 94 RBI). Why is that?

  • Youkilis is injury prone, which is funny when so many people talk about how he is an old-school, tough-as-nails type. Youk has never played more than 150 games in a season, and he has failed to play more than 125 in each of the past three seasons.
  • Youk is old. I mean 33 in baseball years is like being 66 years old. It’s all downhill after that. Which also means, that power probably ain’t coming, kids.

So what does going to the Yankees do to bring some life to this old fella?

Well perhaps enough to make him an intriguing pick up late in drafts, especially if your league requires an extra 1B/3B or CI position. If your league is 12 teams or less with only one 3B spot and a UTL spot as the ninth batter, you should have better options, unless your league is one that counts walks and or OBP. Then you can still probably make room for Youkilis. All of this comes for a few simple reasons:

  1. Yankee Stadium is a hitters park, but everyone knows that already. Hopefully it could help Youk get back to the right side of .280, heck .260 would be nice.
  2. The Yankees lineup, although reeling, still offers good protection in the form of Curtis Granderson, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and others We all know that Youk can wait for his pitch.
  3. The excitement of a new scenery can be just what the doctor ordered for some guys. Youk had a nice resurgence after being traded last year, and maybe moving to New York will give the same chance.

I won’t project Youkilis to have a huge spike in production going to the Yankees, however it can’t possibly hurt since his last year’s line was a pedestrian: 72 runs, 19 homers, 60 RBI, 0 steals, .235 average.

Here are my early projections:

  AB H R HR RBI SB AVG
Floor 375 84 55 11 58 0 .224
Probable 436 107 72 18 66 2 .245
Ceiling 515 142 83 27 98 6 .275


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Ask Nash: A 2013 Fantasy Baseball Keeper Question

Nash —  December 7, 2012 — 3 Comments

Shin-Soo Choo

Should you back away from Shin-Soo Choo or is he a 2013 fantasy baseball keeper? Image by Keith Allison.

Nash,
What would you do for keepers in a deeper league (13 teams), with 6×6 categories (Holds and OBP are the extra categories).  I get 5 keepers, kept at our site’s predicted values for an auction draft.

I am trying to pick 5 of Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, Dustin Pedroia, Pablo Sandoval, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, Brian McCann, Nelson Cruz, Shin-Soo Choo or Shane Victorino.

I guess I might consider keeping Tim Lincecum on buy low value, or Rafael Betancourt for some save foundation BUT with my hitters I just don’t see how I drop any for a pitcher.

What do you think?
Steven

Hey Steven,

Thanks for the traffic and the email man.  Glad to help.

One of the things that most of us agonize over are our keepers, and trust me, I am no different.  Going straight with my gut without knowing who everyone else in your league is keeping (that might make a slight difference) I would say: Pujols, Pedroia, Reyes, McCann and Panda.

The nice thing about most of your options is that you don’t really need to wait through hot stove to know what you have.  Luckily the Reyes trade went down early, not that he wasn’t a no brainer before, but now you can be really excited about his situation.

Looking at your glut of outfielders, I would be pretty confident in getting at least 2 of them back if you play your draft right.  As much as I enjoyed have Cespedes on my squads last year, it is hard to trust that what he put out last year is what we will get this year (I think power and even steals will be there, but the average worries me).

Even still, none of those outfielders are worth chancing it at catcher, when you should get McCann at good value (since you are going at the reassessed dollar values).  Even if he misses more than a month to start the season (shoulder) you can pick up a replacement pretty easily (perhaps Russell Martin or Wilson Ramos).

If this were a league where you were getting McCann at what you paid last year or losing a pick in a snake draft, then I would easily drop him and keep, in order: Cespedes, Victorino, Cruz, Reddick, Choo.  I do not advise Lincecum or Betancourt as a keeper with the hitter options you have, however you might look around your league and if a guy is sitting on only 2 or 3 keepers and one would be even a slight upgrade to you, I’d make a play for him.

In my opinion if you are going to over pay for a player, the offseason is the time to do it.

You need to set yourself up for the best set of keepers possible, even if that means strengthening another team in the process.  Just be sure that won’t come around to bite you in the rear.

I think that perhaps the best places to look for a trade upgrade would be:

Pujols into Joey Votto

Pedroia into Robinson Cano

Reyes into Hanley Ramirez (maybe)

Panda into Evan Longoria or David Wright (Miguel Cabrera would be a LONG shot)

If you could make one of these moves without giving up another one of the guys I mentioned, you have to do so.

Hope this helps man,
Nash

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Angel Pagan Giants: How OF’s Fantasy Value looks in return to SF

Nash —  December 4, 2012 — Leave a comment
Angel Pagan

Angel Pagan should make enough to buy all the new shades he needs. Image courtesy of flickr.

We already knew that Angel Pagan has an oxymoronic sounding name. But now we also know that Pagan has re-signed with the Giants. There’s obviously not much speculation on how he can do in San Francisco, or in the National League West. He just produced a fantasy season of 95 runs, 8 homers, 56 RBI, 29 steals, and a .288 average.

So, since we can’t speculate on any new surroundings, let’s ask a few simple questions. Will Pagan repeat his 2012 performance in 2013? Will he regress? Will he improve?

Let’s take a look.

The signing may not exactly shake up his value, but it may bring a false sense of his value to be locked in for what he put out last year.

See Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Andres Torres and then think again.  Sometimes, a guy’s value changes not because he is going to a new place, or moving back or up in the lineup, but simply that it is a new season.

I don’t want to preach to be wary of guys that have a good contract year and get a contract to remain with their current team, because they will mostly likely rest on their laurels. In fact, for Pagan, I am inclined to think the opposite. I think Angel is a very good player, and I am glad he found confidence leading off for the Giants in the wake of the Melky Cabrera suspension.

Pagan is a guy that should have baseline numbers of 80 runs, 5 homers, 50 RBI, 25 steals, and a .265 average in pretty much any lineup. He is remaining in San Francisco and if they bring back Marco Scutaro (as Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area says they expect to do), their Opening Day lineup will look remarkably similar to the one that won the World Series in October.

I would be happy to nab a guy like Pagan in the 9th round easy.

For a guy like Pagan I would see: Continue Reading…

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Jonathan Broxton Reds: Current Value of Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland

Nash —  November 29, 2012 — 2 Comments
Aroldis Chapman

Will Chapman keep his K/9 numbers as a starter?

Jonathan Broxton cashed in on his last season in a big way, with a 3-year deal with the Cincinnati Reds, and he will assume the closer role for Manager Dusty Baker’s squad.

Take a look at what Broxton last year:

IPs Ks Saves Holds Wins ERA WHIP
58 45 27 10 4 2.48 1.26

This means a few things for a few people who aren’t named Jonathan Broxton, namely Aroldis Chapman and Greg Holland.

Chapman was looking like the number 2 closer in many rankings until now. Now, according to Reds Beat Writer John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, “This means Aroldis Chapman’s going to start.” More importantly, how he will grade out as a starter?

A big, strong flame thrower at the spry young age of 24 has dealt a little with arm fatigue, however, when he is on, he is about a nasty a hurler as there is. And a lefty that can top 100 MPH on the gun is about a valuable as they come.

Chapman last year:

IPs Ks Saves Holds Wins ERA WHIP
71.2 122 38 6 5 1.51 .81

One of my good buddies, and a proud Aroldis Chapman said this about Broxton signing:

“I love it more innings means more Ks til his arm falls off”.

This is the hope for Chapman owners everywhere, I’m sure. My buddy Bryce was planning on keeping Aroldis even before this move. Chapman was a Craig Kimbrel type at closer, they can give you darn near starter strikeouts in far fewer innings. Chapman had more strikeouts than, Mike Leake, Barry Zito, and Joe Saunders, who all had than 100+ more innings pitched than the reliever, just to name a few.

Chapman had a stellar 15.32 K:9 last season. Even if he comes down a bit and say has a 13.5 k:9 and would have pitched 70 innings we were talking 105 strikeouts, give or take (I rounded up from 104.9, okay?).

Now the Reds may in fact go with a pitch count on Chapman much like the Nationals did with Stephen Strasburg. Fay guessed somewhere around 180 innings, but let’s be conservative and  cap Chapman at 150 innings.

That gives us 225 Ks, again rounded up from 224.9, so give or take. That would have put him fifth overall and third in the NL last season. This isn’t saying that he will in fact sustain this sort of strikeout pace with that sort of work load; that has yet to be seen. I would however feel fine banking on 200+ Ks from Aroldis in 2013 so long as he surpasses 140 innings.

However, there is a downside to Chapman, even if he comes through on the strikeouts. He might give up a few home runs taking chances later in games when his arm is tired that could lead to a bloated ERA, he could fall to arm fatigue again and as I previously mentioned you may have to deal with an innings cap.

As it remains, Chapman is probably not going to be available in many keeper leagues anyway.  So I would like to turn your attention back to Greg Holland.

Holland has great stuff and had pretty good numbers last season, and probably should have been the closer for the Royals throughout last season, not only after Broxton went to the Reds.

IPs Ks Saves Holds Wins ERA WHIP
67 91 16 9 7 2.96 1.37

Holland could be a steal at the ends of your drafts next year, and I for one am buying on this kid.  He maintained a 12.22 K:9 last season and even though he may go down to 12 even or 11.5 K:9, he should have the ninth inning all to himself and be good for for 75+ innings.

He won’t put up Aroldis or Kimbrel type numbers but he is a heck of a lot better than scrubs like Glen Perkins, Chris Perez and Jose Valverde.

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Fantasy Baseball: Building an Elite Staff With Pitchers that aren’t

Nash —  November 29, 2012 — Leave a comment
max scherzer eyes

The eyes of Max Scherzer.

Clave and I recently spoke about pitchers, we have both noticed that the “elite” guys are slim this year. VERY slim, actually.

However, that doesn’t bother us all that much, nor should it you. You see, in a normal year, you might have good tiers of 8-10 pitchers that are close in stats to each other. In 2013, there might just be three “elite,” bankable pitchers. Those being Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez. Then you have a HUGE second tier or guys that can be your fantasy “Ace” no problem. Guys like, R.A. Dickey, Matt Cain and David Price, might even be in a small tier of their own. Depending on another pitch count thrown on Stephen Strasburg, I’d put him up with these six guys too.

After them, it’s basically 25-50 or the same pitchers.

I like Matt Moore, the same as I like Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner, Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, or Zack Greinke. It really just depends on what batter I’m drafting to pass on which pitchers.

Now, I typically will have goal set at the beginning of every off season, so that I can begin to plan accordingly. In a standard 5×5 Roto style league, I am looking for around 1400 strikeouts, 100 wins, 125 saves, an ERA under 3.25, and a WHIP under 1.25. That would be for a league that has a start cap at 200 starts. If your league has no start or inning cap, you may need to play it by ear a little more, because guys will not have a stop sign, so owners loading up on pitchers may drive the competition much higher.

For a capped basic 5×5 league, these goals should get you right around top three in each category.

So the key now is to build your staff accordingly. Whether you stream in pitchers or not, it’s a good idea to have a solid core of arms to bolster your staff. For those of you who need the peace of mind of a Kershaw, King Felix or Verlander, that is fine, but know that drafting one of these guys in the first three rounds is going to hurt you a bit offensively.

First we have our goals:

Ks Wins Saves ERA WHIP
1400 100 125 3.25 1.25

Obviously it would be nice to all these stats covered by your drafted pitchers. In that case, you can just coast to 40 or points in pitching, barring injury of course. That is the dream.

Guys like Kershaw and Verlander are great because they will knock off more strikeouts from your year end goal than anyone else. Although, guys like Max Scherzer and James Shields can provide a ton of strikeouts, they just don’t bring the total package like the “elite” arms do. If you do skip on a guy like Kershaw in round 2, grab another top bat, perhaps Ian Kinsler or Troy Tulowitzki, and then be sure to draft enough pitching later to be just as tough as anyone else.

My process building a pitching staff has 3 steps:

  1. Mind the WHIP. WHIP is a very good indicator of a pitcher’s control, and therefore you can trust it more than ERA as an indicator if the pitcher is good, as opposed to lucky or vice versa. There are just more variables that go into what constitutes ERA than WHIP.
  2. Chase Ks, not wins or saves. Again, wins and saves have a lot more variables, especially ones outside of the pitcher’s control. Strikeouts all fall on the pitcher  Furthermore, guys that miss bats, typically don’t have a terrible ERA or WHIP. I mean, less guys are hitting them, right?
  3. Innings are important. First off, if your league has an innings cap, then innings are SUPREMELY important, you need to constantly check your pace, otherwise you may mess yourself up with a week or more to go. Either way, you need to have a good amount of innings to stabilize your ERA and WHIP otherwise a few bad outings are going to hurt you down the stretch.  Also, the more innings the more opportunity for counting stats.

Now I realize you may be asking yourself, what about saves?!  Just like with wins, I say, don’t chase. However, if you are set to pick in round 5 and Craig Kimbrel is still on the board, you’d be foolish to pass. After Kimbrel is off the board, I say wait on closers a long while. Personally, I have no problem filling all my active offensive spots and a few good starting pitchers before going for closers.

Guys you got in late rounds last year: Max Scherzer (round 14), Hiroki Kuroda (round 15) Ryan Vogelsong (round 22). Nab a guy like James Shields (round 6) and you have yourself a core. Then you went after closers like: Jason Motte (round 13) J.J. Putz (round 12), Chris Perez (round 19) and Sergio Romo (round 23) and you have yourself a VERY good starting point for your goals on just 8 pitchers.

Ks Wins Saves ERA WHIP
1052 70 127 3.324 1.157

Again, I won’t chase ERA, so this won’t bother me at the beginning of a season that my projections will come up short there, as long as I am on track in all other areas. Also with the wiggle room in WHIP and being on pace for more saves already, I would be fairly confident that I’d make up a point or two elsewhere to make up for the loss of one or two points in ERA. Either way, I would feel very comfortable if this is where I stand before the season begins, because I know that each week I can come back and read Dixon’s Picks for the week and to easily make up the K’s I’m lagging. We also only drafted eight total pitchers, which means I can just fill in my bench with guys that I can wait and see what I have then start the hot hand as it were.

Surprisingly enough, these guys I have mentioned might be available in about the same rounds as they went last year. However I’ll be sure to go over this again after our 251 rankings and a few mock drafts to say exactly who I’d be targeting this year in what rounds!

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Carlos Gonzalez Fantasy: OF Must Stay in Colorado to Remain Elite

Nash —  November 26, 2012 — Leave a comment
Cargo's splits.

Cargo has some severe splits. Image courtesy of flickr.

I drafted Carlos Gonzalez in 2010 in an auction draft for $22. People scoffed at what I paid. This was largely because of the people sitting at that table, only me and two other guys even knew who he was, and even those two didn’t really think he was worth $22. I may have overpaid a bit at the time, but it was worth it by the end of the year (111 runs, 34 homers, 117 RBI, 26 steals, .336 average).

The following year I traded Cargo straight up for Prince Fielder and people though I was dumb. But I was 100% certain that Cargo could not repeat his 2010 season, AND I am also a huge fan of Prince, especially in a league that counts walks and strikeouts for hitters.

This article could very well go on to explaining the proper way to sell high, or even talk about how to find the guy that will in fact propel your team to a contender before anyone else knows what’s going on. But that’s not what we’re going to do.

Instead, we’re going to focus on Cargo’s unique skill set. Of course Cargo is one of MANY outfielders that can hit you 20+ homers and steal 20+ bases (Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Matt Kemp just to name a few). His uniqueness comes from his ridiculous home road splits.

Slowly but surely, Cargo is doing better in the power department away from Coors Field, but he still hit .368 at home and .234 in 2012. There have been many an article written about the science behind his success at home and his lack thereof on the road. Overall most guys produce better at home, but no one plays so poorly on the road and so well at home that they still grade out as a top 25 pick.

I’m not here to focus on how breaking pitches don’t break as well at Coors or how the ball flies approximately 40 feet further at Coors than at sea level.

I am writing about Cargo, because along with Justin Upton, Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo, he is potential trade bait this winter.

If Cargo were to be traded, it might in fact be a crushing blow to his fantasy value. There is NO other ballpark like Coors Field because none play at the same altitude. Even launching pads like Chase Field, Camden Yards or Yankee Stadium would not be as friendly to Cargo as Coors.

If Gonzalez is traded, you need to SERIOUSLY curb your expectations.

Cargo strikes out a ton as it is, and his average has not been as high as 2010 I doubt ever will be. Additionally, his power output has gone consistently down the past three seasons, but the steals have been about as consistent as you could ever ask for.  So what does that mean for his value going forward?

Below I have our current projections for Cargo, and what I might lean towards if he is traded

AB H R HR RBI BB K SB AVG
current 599 182 94 25 93 50 126 23 .304
trade 599 165 88 19 85 41 139 21 .275

Furthermore, I think Cargo will be hard pressed to actually get that close to 600 at bats.  He seems to be a little more injury prone than most OFs, and he tends to get rest on the road even with the Rockies. So truly these are best case scenario for Cargo.

I hate to be a killjoy for all you Cargo fans and owners, however we are here to help you keep a realistic expectations.  Why draft Cargo as a top-five outfielder when he may put up Shin-Soo Choo like numbers?

In Player Profiles
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Fantasy Baseball: Worst to (almost) First

Nash —  November 23, 2012 — Leave a comment

 

Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia. Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

In a recent Ask Nash, I was mostly asked about the real life Pirates, how do they become relevant? It was a fun question to kick around, then I started to think. I was the Pirates in the Roto league I started in for the first two seasons, then I broke out and got to the top-five, and have taken second the past two seasons with a lot of input from my brother.

I did this with a few easy steps:

  1. I learned the league.
  2. I took our draft VERY seriously.
  3. I built for balance and I took care of my weakest areas first.

Learning the league

I did this in two ways, first I sat down and studied the league parameters, settings, categories and most importantly what stats were getting what points per category (I could do a whole post about this). However the bullet points on these are.

  • Settings are your friend. Innings caps, games played maximums, and trade deadlines will help you if you understand them. For example, if your league maxes at 1400 innings for total pitching, then you need to plan to get to 1400 on the very last day. That isn’t a joke, you need to monitor your innings pace (most sites have a function that tells you easily) because you do not want to be two weeks out and have zero innings left. I have seen it happen many a times.
  • If your league has unique categories (i.e. holds, walks issued, strikeouts against batters) then you need to take full advantage of them.  (again, a whole post coming on that!)
  • Lastly, you need to see what numbers people are putting up to finish on the top part of categories. (Clave wrote a terrific post about how to win a league going for mediocrity)  It is important to set goals for your team.
  • Then I learned the players in our league. It is no secret I like trade, I live to trade. Even with how much I have written of my affinity for striking a deal, I continue to make a ton of trades in my leagues, because I have taken a lot of time to learn my fellow league mates and who they like and dislike as players. You don’t need to trade to win a league, but if you do trade, you need to make good trades!

Drafting to win

Set up a budget, make an extensive cheat sheet of tiers of players you want, and stick to the plan. It is important to pay attention all year, a fantasy baseball team is like owning a pet, it needs a lot of attention or else it will die (okay, that was a little dramatic, but you get the point).
If you are in a snake draft, then obviously you do not need a budget, BUT I say mock draft, mock draft and mock draft some more!!  You need to know where guys are falling!

Building a winner

Okay, so this last one is a little unique to me, and I have asked Dixon to give his take on how he built his team the year following his last place finish as well. If you haven’t done so, I’d suggest you read his take as soon as you’re done with mine.

First, I built for balance and took care of my weaknesses. I was HORRIFIC in the pitching categories the year that I finished dead last. So what did I do? I kept four pitchers and just one hitter. Admittedly I have changed my keeper strategy since then and for the better, BUT the first year it was important to know where I was weak and to take those worries off of the plate first.

Secondly my biggest money player was Brian Roberts for $22, sadly that was the year he was out basically the entire season and thus the end of his solid career to date. However because I built my team with balance in mind I had good enough players to trade for a good replacement second baseman.

Good strategy is one that is fluid, and as I started that year emphasizing balance and strong pitching I was able to adapt to my more current style of building a team. However, if you have any glaring weak spots on your team, I would always suggest taking care of those with your keepers then drafting and picking up guys throughout the season. If you had a glut of home runs the year before, it’s most likely because you like mashers and can pick out a masher easily. Whereas if you struggled in steals, it’s most likely that you are inclined to forego steals again, so it’s wise to go after a Michael Bourn as a keeper to give yourself a head start.

That is also where my brother came in. Some guys would NEVER take on a co-manager, and that is fine, it is not for everyone. However, my brother can identify a good pitcher like Billy Beane, no joke. So again, knowing my weakness, I asked him to team up with me as my pitching consultant and co-manager.

If you can follow these steps then you can take your team from lovable loser (trust me, your league loves you) to a team in the money in one offseason!

In Strategy
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Fantasy Baseball 2013: How Will Jose Reyes do in Toronto?

Nash —  November 15, 2012 — Leave a comment
Jose Reyes

Jose Reyes flashes his grin. Image courtesy of flickr user Lakeland.

The Blue Jays landed some of the last pieces of a blown up Miami Marlins mega team, unless Giancarlo Stanton is next on the move of course.  This happens just one year after bringing in Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell to join Hanley Ramirez (already gone), Josh Johnson, and the aforementioned Stanton and one of my personal favorites, Logan Morrison, to help open up the new Marlins Park.

Sending Johnson, Reyes, Buehrle Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck to Toronto in exchange for Yunel Escobar, Henderson Alverez, Jeff Mathis and a glut of prospects.

This is about as much excitement as we can hope for in a fairly weak free agency class that has only: Torii Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki, Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton and Angel Pagan as its big names. So let’s dive in and figure out what this means especially regarding the most marquee player Jose Reyes.

Jose Reyes has been one of my favorite players since he appeared in a ESPN the Magazine’s Body Issue. Uh, nevermind that. Needless to say I am extra excited about this trade for his fantasy value!

Reyes leaves a team that was managed about as old school as a Dusty Baker squad, by the notorious Ozzie Guillen. He had the green light to run and run he did, swiping 40 bags last season. A move to Toronto won’t really hurt his stolen bases, Toronto ran last year, as they have ran a lot the past two seasons. Even with the loss of manager John Farrell, they should continue to run. Besides you do not try to harness a guy like Reyes.

Some more added value for is gonna come from Toronto’s Rogers Centre being a launching pad right up there with Fenway and Yankee stadium. Reyes can hit for power from the leadoff spot, so let’s hope he can return to the 2006 and 2008 output with the new stadium. If Reyes can touch 15/40 as a shortstop next year then he can certainly be the top fantasy shortstop.

An added bonus for Reyes moving to an American League team is that he can have the occasional spell at DH. I am not thinking they will use him there a lot, since they primarily will bat Edwin Encarnacion as their DH with the occasional move to for Jose Bautista as well. However I have to imagine that to save some wear and tear on Reyes’ knees, a few at bats every couple of weeks at DH wouldn’t be out of the plan.

For my own projection of Reyes, I previously had:

AB H R HR RBI BB K SB AVG
581 175 90 10 52 47 53 36 .301

However I would add at least a small uptick in some categories with the move to Toronto:

AB H R HRs RBI BB K SB AVG
581 175 101 15 55 47 53 36 .301

Granted the uptick in home runs might be a little more on the hopeful side BUT, Toronto is a MUCH friendlier fly ball park than Marlins park.  Also I wouldn’t expect many more steals but I would will be keeping my fingers crossed.

A trade like this will definitely help Reyes’ stats, however for those of us trying to plan for a fantasy season we need to be realistic with our expectations going forward.

I’ll leave you with this, we recently did a slow mock with a bunch of great guys: the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast guys, Clubhouse GM, @ERolfPleiss, all the Crackerjacks were in attendance and a few others. My second pick (19th overall) was Hanley Ramirez, but I almost went with Jose Reyes. Had this trade been made previous to the slow Mock, I would have gone with Reyes without even thinking about it.

In Player Profiles ,
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