Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Value of Justin Upton in Boston

Nash — November 10, 2012 — Leave a comment

Justin Upton is being shopped right now, and for us fantasy players this can be a nice boost to a guy who should be kept in pretty much all formats and someone that you should not let sneak past round 4.

According to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald, the Red Sox are a suitor for the Arizona slugger. While this baffles me from a real baseball standpoint, it would be very interesting to see Upton with the Red Sox from a fantasy standpoint. Quite frankly, that’s all that matters, right?

Upton has shown flashes of super-stardom in Arizona. He has also shown his human side every other full year.

Take a look at Upton’s numbers over the last four seasons:

In Player Profiles Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, hot stove, Justin Upton

James Shields Twins: Fantasy Implications of Rumored Trade

Nash — November 5, 2012 — Leave a comment

James Shields lets one rip. Image courtesy of Keith Allison.

We all know that the Minnesota Twins need starting pitching, so it’s no surprise that recent rumors have suggested that the Minnesota Twins are in the market to trade for some.

Darren Wolfson of 1500espn.com suggested that they were interested in Ervin Santana. Now that Santana’s been moved to Kansas City, the Twins have shifted their focus.

Another name to monitor: Tampa Bay’s James Shields. While having his $10.25 million option exercised for 2013, he’s available. The Twins seem like a good match with the Rays because of their outfield depth. Tampa Bay is expected to lose outfielder B.J. Upton, who’s a free agent.

Before I get going too deep in analyzing this trade, I have one question.

Who in the world calls Denard Span, Josh Willingham and Ben Revere outfield depth?!?

Oh I see, Darin Mastroianni really does round THAT group out. But now that that’s out of my system, let’s look at the possibility of Shields ending up in the Twin cities, and what the fantasy baseball implications might be.

First I would have to guess that Span would be the outfielder on the move for a couple reasons:

1. He is a quality player and solid lead off man, that would fit nicely in Tampa Bay’s outfield and line-up, especially if they do in fact lose B.J. Upton. Take a look at the kind of lineup they’d be fielding.

Yes, I think you move Jennings back to the 2 hole and make room for Span to set the table. The guy can make an at-bat last a long time, has a much higher batting average (Span is a career .284 hitter, Jennings is a .246 career hitter) and consequently on base percentage (Span .357, Jennings .327) and he still has good speed on the base paths, nabbing 17 bases in 2012.

Again, when you consider that Upton’s likely gone, this is a fantasy improvement for the Rays. More importantly for this site, it’s an improvement for anyone who owns Denard Span in 2013, as he’ll be better in Tampa than Minnesota.

Now, let’s shift to the Twins side of the coin, shall we? The Royals taking Ervin Santana might just become a blessing in disguise. James Shields is a better pitcher and the Twins “outfield depth” wouldn’t help the Angels, who are already over-crowded. Span would be especially useless in Anaheim, as he would need to be inserted into a line up right away and the Angels don’t have that room right now. Plus, being in the same division, the Twins get to face Ervin a few more times a season to make it a little more interesting.

Shields came back down to earth last season posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP after a stellar 2011 where he posted a 2.82 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. Still, a 3.52 ERA in the American League East is nothing to sneeze at. He has really revived his career the past few seasons and striking out nearly a hitter an inning. Shields can be a solid number one starter for the Twins for a few seasons while they start to work in some of their young arms, such as Kyle Gibson.

From a fantasy angle, this would give help Shields put up slightly better numbers than last year (except maybe in wins). Granted, his numbers will most likely never be as good as 2011 ever again. Still, Minnesota is about as pitcher-friendly as any park in the league, certainly when compared to Tropicana Field and the parks of the A.L. East.

Overall it seems this trade could work out for everyone involved. Most importantly, it would help fantasy owners most of all.

In Miscellany Denard Span, James Shields, Rays, Twins

11 Fantasy Baseball Pitchers You Shouldn’t Touch With a 60’6″ Pole Revisited

Nash — October 29, 2012 — Leave a comment

In February we ran a series of predictive posts as a Countdown to the 2012 fantasy baseball season. Those predictions have come and gone, so we thought we’d revisit them as we Ramp Up to Fantasy Baseball 2013. Yes, it’s never too early to prepare for the 2013 fantasy baseball season.

I’ll be looking back at a list of pitchers I suggested you should avoid on draft day. To judge how I did on my predictions I’ll quote what I said then, give myself a letter grade on how in the ballpark I was, then give a short commentary on what you can expect from these fantasy baseball pitchers in 2013.

CC Sabathia – Seems like slow start CC’s slow starts are lasting longer and longer. I would tread with caution drafting CC in early rounds waiting for a big second half, much like fellow Yankee, Mark Teixeira.

Grade C+: I played it safe on CC saying “tread with caution in early rounds”, but what does that mean really? No one is drafting him before round 4 and his numbers for a late 4th round pick would have been stomachable (Is that a word?) I think in your 2013 fantasy baseball draft I’d target CC lower than 6th round.

Ian Kennedy – This guy had a STELLAR season last year, and I am not saying that he will be terrible this season, but you absolutely need to have realistic expectations for him as he is a young gun that may come with some growing pains.

Grade A: I’m looking at a 4.02 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, feeling good about my realistic expectations of the young arm. In 2013 I say draft with confidence in Round 9, but more evaluation to come.

Kyle Farnsworth – I think Clave will have my back on this, do NOT expect Kyle Farnsworth’s unreal season last year to be repeated. This is a guy with a career WHIP of 1.34 that was down to .99 last year. You might argue that he was trending down in WHIP the past 3 seasons but he will NOT be a guy you can bank on next year.

Grade A+: Farnsworth was a 1 hit wonder, and should NEVER hold a closer job for a full season again. He has no fantasy baseball value in 2013.

Ricky Romero – I actually like Romero, and it will set my brother off that he made this list, but it had to be done. Romero is a guy that might be able to turn the corner and really be a solid 2-3 starting pitcher for fantasy teams but it is more realistic that he continues to fall apart in the second half of seasons. I have benefited from selling high on him the past 2 seasons but may not roll the dice again.

Grade B+: Romero was worse than I expected he would be, so I cannot give myself an A, simply because I held out that he could turn the corner. 2013 will be a real sweet time to buy low on Romero as he might go undrafted after this horrible season. Continue Reading…

In Player Profiles craig kimbrel, Gio Gonzalez, pitchers, RP, SP

9 Players who give you a complete Fantasy Baseball Lineup Revisited

Nash — October 23, 2012 — Leave a comment

Ned Yost, Alex Gordon, Kevin Seitzer

Previously, I shared a full fantasy baseball lineup, complete with draft round and an approximate draft value you could expect to pay. You can’t just read a list of MLB’s 9 best players and expect to roster them all on your fantasy baseball team. You have to plan in order to get as much talent as you can, while competing against the other owners in the draft. It was no small task trying to layout a seriously talented lineup for our readers without letting guys in my own league know ALL the guys I was targeting!

I feel overall I fared alright, and I would certainly love another shot at doing this post again next year. For now though, let’s run through this lineup and see how well they performed.

C – Joe Mauer

Mauer was just fine this year. In fact, he was the Mauer of old. Unfortunately that means it is time to give up hope on the power ever coming. He is going to be a high average hitter that knocks in runs without a lot of home runs, ala Victor Martinez. You could do a lot worse at catcher.

1B – Joey Votto

I am gonna blame injury here. Votto is elite, and is going continue to be elite. However, I do feel really bad for Votto Owners because you certainly had to take this guy high and to see him on the DL hurts, just as much as the lack of second half home runs. Hopefully you are in a keeper league and are able to build around this stud for seasons to come.

2B – Ian Kinsler

Kinsler had a pretty good year last season, which means he had great runs scored, pedestrian average and just under achieved on home runs and steals. Kinlser is definitely a guy worth taking if he keeps falling to the late second early third round, but if people start taking him in Round 1, be happy that someone better is now falling out of the top dozen or so picks. Continue Reading…

In Miscellany Joe Mauer, Joey Votto, lineup

8 Great Fantasy Baseball Players under 25 Revisited

Nash — October 19, 2012 — Leave a comment

Let’s rehash this list, shall we? What I did was share 8 players under 25 who would be major fantasy baseball talents, only to offer another young player at the same position who might provide similar value, but at fraction of the auction price or with a much later round draft pick.

Justin Upton: value replacement was Desmond Jennings. I went out on a limb here, but thanks to Justin Upton’s pedestrian year, I wasn’t all that far off. Desmond Jennings turned out a decent season and he still does provide similar stats to an elite talent like Justin. Look for Justin to bounce back in 2013, plus look for Jennings to take a small step forward.
Andrew McCutchen: value replacement was Austin Jackson. How was I suppose to know McCutchen was going to put out an MVP type year? Austin Jackson was fine, but McCutchen ELITE this year. He has always been one of Clave’s favorite players, and now the WHOLE world sees why. McCutchen will be a 2013 first round draft pick in most fantasy baseball drafts.
Giancarlo Stanton: value replacement was Jay Bruce. The player formerly known as Mike Stanton is a burgeoning elite player. Jay Bruce would be right there with him if he could get his batting average up like Giancarlo did in 2012. I like Jay Bruce. A lot! With Giancarlo being the hot ticket on most fantasy baseball draft boards in 2013, look again to Bruce as player with similar skills, but at a discount.
Clayton Kershaw: value replacement was Mat Latos. I was watching the A’s vs Verlander the other night (sigh) and one of the announcers was talking about Verlander. He said, “Verlander is an ace. Every team has a #1 starter, but not every team has an ace, and Verlander is the definition of ace.” Kershaw is also an ace. Latos is not, and may never be, but he will give you reasonably close numbers for a way later draft pick.
Buster Posey: value replacement was Wilson Ramos. I was way off on this one. Posey had a MVP type year, while Ramos fought injuries all year and sucked even when he wasn’t injured. Sorry if you passed on Posey thinking you had a sweet inside track on a perfect replacement player. Don’t make the same mistake in 2013, but do keep an eye on Wilin Rosario as a value pick.
Starlin Castro: value replacement was Elvis Andrus. What I said for 2012 was that Castro will ALWAYS have a higher average, and Andrus will ALWAYS have double digit more steals than Castro. WRONG! In 2102 Castro swiped more bags, and Andrus hit for higher average. My bad. But wit the shortstop position being very thin, expect both to be hot commodities in 2013 fantasy baseball drafts.
Stephen Strasburg: value replacement was Madison Bumgarner. I stand by this pick and will again next year! Strasburg is great, but he is so hyped that you have to take him MUCH earlier than a guy like Bumgarner. Bumgarner also has a great future ahead of him, and that, my friends, is what makes Mad Bum a steal!
Mike Trout: value replacement was Peter Bourjos. Not…even…close. Bourjos just fell off this year amidst the crowded outfield in Anaheim. I really liked him last year, as he played well when he got his shot at the end of the season. This year, no such luck, and Mike Trout became the story of baseball.

Well, we went through and figured out where I was wrong and where I was wronger, but the whole point of this is to find guys that will give you close stats to guys that you covet, but at a bargain price in an auction or at the fantasy baseball draft board. No fantasy baseball team can have a roster full of superstars, so always have lists of guys like this because these bargains can be the difference between a championship and being an also ran.

In Miscellany Buster Posey, Giancarlo Stanton, Jay Bruce, Mike Trout

Fantasy Baseball: Congratulations, Clave

Nash — October 18, 2012 — 5 Comments

The fantasy season has been over for about two weeks now, and a congratulations are LONG over due to our dear friend and fellow Crackerjack, Clave, who was a perfect 3-for-3 this season, notching three first place finishes in three Roto style leagues.

It has obviously taken me awhile to even want to acknowledge this because of the fact that I was the runner up in two of those leagues. § bitter

However it is time to get over it and celebrate our esteemed colleague. Clave is a HUGE part of the reason why I not just play and greatly enjoy fantasy baseball, but have a renewed sense of joy for baseball in general!

Five years ago, Clave invited me to join his fantasy baseball league and thus our friendship started. He let me learn on my own and gave me tips at first, BUT when I showed interest in not wanting to be the joke of the league, which I was, he took me under his wing, like Jim Thome and Justin Morneau.

Clave is the bar that I have always compared my progress as a fantasy owner to. He is about as sharp a mind as I know, he knows just about as much about baseball and player (especially minor leaguers) as anyone I know and is as competitive as they come!

I mimic most of my fantasy baseball strategy after Clave, and therein lies my problem.

Maybe you have a Clave in your league(s), if you are trying to play their game, you will most likely never beat them at their own game. It is time to evolve as a fantasy owner, and I certainly have a full length post in the mix about that!

However let’s get back to Clave, congratulations Clave!

You are the greatest, I am the worst. You are handsome, I am very ugly. You smell terrific, I do not. You are a great fantasy baseball mind and I am just the kid you tutor!

Cheers to a LONG well played and tough fought season my friend!

In Miscellany

Fantasy Baseball: How Alex Rodriguez to Miami Would Change Things

Nash — October 18, 2012 — 2 Comments

With his contract, this wouldn’t have seemed even a remote possibility even a few days ago, But Wallace Matthews and Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York are reporting that Alex Rodriguez may be on the move to the Marlins this offseason.

What began as a casual, joking conversation between New York Yankees president Randy Levine and Miami Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria about the possibility of Alex Rodriguez playing for the Marlins may develop into serious trade talks this offseason, according to a source with knowledge of the conversation.

Then later on, they added:

A second source with knowledge of Rodriguez’ thinking said the likely only place Rodriguez eventually would accept a trade to is Miami.

Obviously this is a long way from happening. Still, Rodriguez has been pinch hit for multiple times this postseason didn’t even start in Game 5 of the ALDS and Games 3 and 4 of the ALCS, so it’s worth speculating on.

What if A-Roid took his talents to South beach??

He certainly wouldn’t be the biggest ego, there, not even in the Marlins’ clubhouse!

How much does A-Rod still have left to offer?

He gave fantasy owners 18 home runs in 463 at bats last year, playing home games at Yankee stadium. Not to mention, subpar numbers everywhere else. Rodriguez doesn’t steal anymore, he isn’t hitting for great power or high average. Could a move to a not so hitter friendly park, a club house in turmoil because of the manager and a line-up with some glaring question marks help A-Rod or just provide the finishing blow to his career?

As of right now this is the Marlins projected lineup for next season:

1- Emilio Bonifacio
2- Justin Ruggiano
3-Jose Reyes
4- Giancarlo Stanton
5- Logan Morrison
6- Greg Dobbs
7- Rob Brantly
8- Donovan Solano

No doubt the Marlins would bench Dobbs to have A-Rod at third base, and most likely they would slide Rodriguez to 5th in the order and push LoMo back to 6th. With Reyes, Giancarlo and A-Rod in the heart of the order, things look a little nicer on paper for Miami (or at least name value wise).

There are 3 things to really hope for with Alex Rodriguez to return to form, as best he can at age 38 next year.

Health - First and foremost, Alex Rodriguez needs to get his body right, and stay on the field for 500+ at bats. Perhaps he can and will do so. You’ve got to think that the joints would hurt less in a warm climate like Miami.
Pride - Second A-Rod needs to have the pride to want to prove EVERYONE wrong, ESPECIALLY the Yankees for shipping him off after toying with him in and out of the line-up this postseason. Heck, even if they don’t trade him, he needs to have this desire to prove that they were wrong for benching him and even thinking about moving him.
Confidence - Kobe Bryant has it right, Rodriguez needs to remember he was/is A-Rod. Perhaps with assurance of consistent time in the field and a solidified spot in the heart of the order, A-Rod would re-emerge!

Even with all of these things happening for Rodriguez, fantasy owners need to realize a few things as well.

A-Rod will NEVER be A-Rod again, so temper your expectations going forward.

The Marlins park is not a fantasy sexy stadium, Giancarlo will be fine there because he can hit the ball 600 feet, however it may make Alex look more like Victor Martinez or Carlos Lee type guy, GREAT RBI numbers, not matching HR numbers.

Third base is MUCH MUCH deeper than ever before. So DO NOT reach or break the bank for a 3B as you can end up with a very decent option late in drafts!

In Miscellany

2 Comeback Catchers Revisited

Nash — October 10, 2012 — Leave a comment

Back in February I predicted that Buster Posey and Joe Mauer would make full comebacks. In fact, this is what I had to say:

Here we have 2 catchers that are both coming off of injury years, but who previously were hitting 3rd in their respective line-ups. I am all in on both guys to be just fine this year, with a little more upside to Buster Posey.

Here were their numbers from the 2012 season:

	AB	Runs	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG
Buster Posey	530	78	24	103	69	96	1	0.336
Joe Mauer	545	81	10	85	90	88	8	0.319

Well, I think it is safe to say that I got one right! Joe Mauer and Buster Posey bounced back quite nicely, mainly due to getting back over 500 ABs, and should be top 5 fantasy baseball catchers (Posey likely at #1 and Mauer likely at #5) in 2013.

Overall catcher was a hard position to deal with this year, with down years from guys like Mike Napoli, Brian McCann and the overall number 1 guy for many, Carlos Santana. While there was one pleasant surprise at catch at least – Wilin Rosario – we can expect that going into next year catcher will once again be a crap shoot becaue catcher is the number one most physically demanding position in baseball.

Guys age a little quicker at catcher, and it could be that Brian McCann didn’t just have a bad year, maybe catching has finally caught up to him and he is on the down slope of his career.
Catchers are victim to injuries, a prime example is Posey in 2011. The brutal collision at home plate had him out the entire year. Luckily, Buster healed right, rehabbed well and has returned to form!
Lastly, catchers need more time off or sometimes a position change to rest their legs, exactly what happened to Joe Mauer in 2011. Leg fatigue amongst other things crippled him for an entire year and his owners were hard luck loser because of that. To combat that the Twins are trying Mauer at a combo of catcher, DH, 1B and having still some days completely off. This is similar to the Victor Martinez model in Detroit who had him catch just enough to keep him as a “catcher” but keeping his bat in the line-up as much as possible.

Heading into the 2013 fantasy baseball season it will be curious to see if the Twins slowly move Mauer completely away from catcher, and the same with Cleveland and Carlos Santana. Heck, even the Giants play Posey at 1B quite a bit. If these guys end up losing catcher eligibility it will be interesting to see what the overall catcher position will look like for us, and how they would fair compared to not catchers for fantasy rankings.

However, until then, enjoy what these guys will bring to your 2013 fantasy baseball line-ups, as catchers that give you 500+ at bats are fantasy baseball gold!

In Player Profiles Buster Posey, catcher, Joe Mauer

Ask Nash: Edwin Encarnacion as a Keeper

Nash — September 28, 2012 — Leave a comment

Nash,

I have Edwin Encarnacion on my team. I get three keepers. The only player on my team that I know for sure is a keeper is Matt Holliday. Other candidates would be Curtis Granderson and Paul Konerko, with the possibility of Elvis Andrus and Brandon Phillips. Encarnacion’s 2012 numbers are keeper worthy but he’ll likely only have first base eligibility next year. He’ll also be 30 on Opening Day next year and hasn’t had a year anything close to this in the past. Is he a keeper to build on? Should I go with some of the other proven options? Should I take the extra picks and take my chances on the rest of the non-keeper pool? (we sacrifice are first 3 rounds of picking to keep 3 players.) Oh and I am probably going to be picking 11th overall out of 12.

Thanks

Phillip in Idaho

Gosh, Phillip, this is tough. I really liked Eddy coming into this year because he had third base eligibility AND was going after round nine in most drafts. In a snake draft scenario where you’d lose one of your first 3 rounds to keep him I might pass and roll the dice that you land a better player. If you are for sure keeping Matt Holiday then you are losing your first round pick, pick 11. In a typical snake draft, you will be picking again at 22 and then every 11 picks after that…until the non-keeper rounds start up. It’s hard to say right now how guys are going to fall in 2013. Remember, the 2012 season hasn’t even wrapped up yet.

What I encourage you to do is to table this decision until you have a good idea of preseason rankings. Maybe have seen or participated in a few mock drafts. If not, do so well before the keeper deadline comes around. The reason being is that you will have a pretty good idea who will be at you 22, 33, and 44.

It is going to come down to what your options are. In round two, pick 22, if think that you can draft a guy like Albert Pujols, laugh, but where would you draft him at? Then you need to decide if Albert is going to bounce back to elite form after 2 years of really slow starts. Maybe Curtis Granderson is a viable option in that spot (I only wish he stole bases still). I certainly would not Keep Eddy in round 2, so if you are not going to keep Granderson, I say only keep Holliday and re-draft.

Now if you like Granderson, and are keeping Holliday you are now trying to figure out who is going to be the 33rd overall guy. I would guess that the first base talent at 33 and beyond is going to be MUCH better than a position like shortstop. So I may very well consider keeping Andrus. Know that I am not sold on him as a third rounder because I think better players might just be available. You have to think with the emergence of guys like Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Jason Kipnis to the higher ranks, and with struggling or aging stars such as Pujols, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira that the first few rounds of next years drafts might be pretty wild.

Ultimately it is hard to figure out who is going to be ranked where in September. Try us at the end of October when our early rankings will be out!

Thanks for the question Phillip and here is to 36 more Ask Nash’s next year!

In Ask Nash Edwin Encarnacion

Ask Nash: Is Chris Carpenter worth a risk?

Nash — September 21, 2012 — 3 Comments

Nash,

Is Chris Carpenter worth a look for my team which is competing hard down the stretch?!

Amy

Amy,

Chris Carpenter, hmmm, Chris Carpenter. I spent $2 on the bum in one of my drafts even though he was gonna be on the DL to start the year and for how long, no one knew.

Flash forward to September 21st, Carpenter is set to start at Wrigley against the terrible Cubs.

This comes at a time that will be pivotal for owners competing in various league styles.

Here is exactly how I’d approach Carpenter, depending on the situation you are in.

If you are in a head-to-head match-up, you need to really know what you need to win. One bad outing can take you out of the running for ERA and WHIP in such a short time frame. However if you are going against a team that is sure to own pitching with aces then maybe you just try to poach a counting stat like Ks from them and stream in as many pitchers as you can. Of course, for this to matter you need to dominate hitting but say you are doing that. I think I would roll the dice on Carpenter!

If you are in a Roto style league then you need to understand what a bad start will mean to your team. If you are down .50 in ERA and only up by .05 on the guy trailing you, then you could easily lose a point with a bad outing. Same goes for WHIP of course. On the other hand, the same goes for if you need counting stats like Ks or a win. Carpenter should still stand to get a win even if he can’t pitch lights out, as the Cardinals are a much better team than the Cubs.

Now taking these sort of things into consideration, you need to decide if you trust how healthy Carpenter is. I would trust Carpenter to know when he is ready. He is a seasoned veteran, so he likely has a good understanding of coming back right for the sake of his team down the stretch and for his own health.

Now let’s look at his first two match-ups. He is on the road at Wrigley and at Houston. On the road is obviously tougher than pitching at home for any pitcher, BUT I don’t think you can ask for two better match ups that the Cubs and Astros.

So what is the verdict you say? I would roll the dice with Carpenter. Hopefully I am right about this guy!

In Ask Nash

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