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Fantasy Baseball Time Travel: 2014′s First Round Draft Picks

Clave Jones —  May 21, 2013 — Leave a comment
Could Bryce Harper go #1 overall next year?

Could Bryce Harper go #1 overall next year?

I’m in one league where less than an month into the season and a couple of owners blew up their teams. I guess they couldn’t take the poor performance of their top draft picks.

Well, if those owners are already looking ahead to next’s year’s draft, then let’s look with them.  Based upon the play of this April, who would be the first round picks next year?

Now before some joker with poor reading comprehension comments on how it’s only April and much too early to think about next year’s draft, we all realize this is for fun, right? Just like those owners shouldn’t have blown up their teams after just one month, it’s silly to be thinking about next year’s draft after just one month.

Let’s do it anyway!

Realizing that drafts were different, I’ll just list 15 guys who were the odd’s on bets to be a first round pick in most leagues. We’ll give them a pass / fail grade, then jump forward to the 15 guys whose present performance is laying claim to a first round draft pick in 2014.

Miguel Cabrera gets a passing grade for certain. He went #1 overall in lots of drafts and is proving why in that he’s following up a Triple Crown season with even stronger numbers this season.

Ryan Braun isn’t having a career year, but owners should hardly be disappointed with much, unless they are fixated on his having just two stolen bases.

Mike Trout got off to a slow start and those who love to say ‘told you so’ were more than happy to decry a sophomore slump. Well, he warmed up quickly and proved that the critics spoke too soon.

Robinson Cano has once again been unspectacularly spectacular. He’s proven that he was worthy of a top pick by once again hitting for power and average.

Andrew McCutchen has seen his average free fall this year, while his homers and steals have been respectable. Owners who drafted him high hoping for an increase on his 2012 success may be wishing they took another pick.

Matt Kemp has been horrible. His average is slowly climbing as are his steals but a single home run is not first round material, particularly not for someone who has 40/40 potential.

Joey Votto loves to take long walks, something I’ve written about before. His average is superb and he’s starting to swing away a bit, but you hope for more homers and RBI from a first round pick.

Albert Pujols has seen his slow starts last longer and longer. At some point they will simply last all season. I think he’s already showing that he doesn’t belong in first round conversation much longer.

Carlos Gonzalez already has 30 runs, is hitting for power and stealing bases, while doing everything else that you hope a first round pick will do. I have to imagine his owners are pleased thus far.

Prince Fielder was probably drafted late in round one if he didn’t slide into the early second. Well, he’s performed like a late first round pick, so I can’t imagine anyone is displeased.

Troy Tulowitzki has been on the field all season and played like we all know he can play. He’s a first round pick if healthy.

Justin Verlander was most likely a second round pick, but I did hear of a few guys going against the grain to grab a pitcher first. I’m sure they are pleased with his performance thus far.

Buster Posey was likewise a probably second round pick, although his slow start would be hard=pressed to justify even that thus far. But he’s thawing out.

David Wright was snatched up by some guys who like to grab thin positions early. He’s rewarded them with solid all-around play.

Giancarlo Stanton has 50 homer potential so he snuck into the first round in a lot of drafts. So far it’s been an absolutely wasted pick.

Shockingly, the first round has held up quite well, considering that on average a full 40% of first rounders fail to return first round value. Maybe this is a year that we see that number dip and see owners rewarded for their early pick. With that in mind, let’s list out 14 for 2014, just for fun.

  1. Miguel Cabrera: Based upon his history and early season numbers, there is little reason not to look at him early in 2014.
  2. Ryan Braun: While it looks like his steals will tumble somewhat, he’s still got that track record you like in the first round.
  3. Justin Upton: He’s flashed MVP before and it looks like his age plus potential will rocket him up draft charts.
  4. Bryce Harper: He’s showing insane power at a freakishly early age. Why wouldn’t you draft him early in 2014?
  5. Mike Trout: Maybe his slow start will give drafters pause. But it looks like there is little doubt that he’ll be drafted high in 2014.
  6. Carlos Gonzalez: While he is hitting for average while flashing power and speed, he’ll be a solid #1 again.
  7. Robinson Cano: There will be so much contract chatter that folks will grow sick off hearing about him. Still, they’d be nuts not to draft him.
  8. Paul Goldschmidt: Why not? He’s now had plenty at bats to prove he’s for real. He takes the spot Pujols used to occupy as an elite first baseman.
  9. Evan Longoria: He’s right now putting together the season that folks knew he could. It’s not unimaginable he’ll be the second third baseman off the board.
  10. David Wright: One more year before his speed goes in decline and Manny Machado is making him look like yesterday’s news. But never underestimate the masses drafting a solid track record in the first round.
  11. Adam Jones: He goes a little under the radar, but he’s following up a break-out season with another gem. His stock will rise.
  12. Matt Kemp: His horrible start will scare off many, but the wise will realize that he’ll be a steal in this slot.
  13. Andrew McCutchen: Many will say his 2012 was a career year. Others will draft for a repeat in 2014.
  14. Troy Tulowitzki: It was hard not putting Joey Votto in this spot (or even Anthony Rizzo), but if Votto hits under 25 homers, folks will go for the thin SS position, provided Tulo stays on the field.

It’s obviously too early to tell, but is there anyone I missed that you think will be a first rounder in 2014? Let us know via Twitter or in the comments.

In Drafting, Rankings , , , , , , ,
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Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Dealing With Elite Players

Michael Dixon —  April 16, 2013 — 7 Comments

Writer’s Note: Monday was obviously a really strange and sad day for everyone. What happened in Boston was an absolute tragedy, and our thoughts and prayers are with everyone there. Certainly they go out to those who had loved ones killed or wounded, but everyone who experienced that is in our thoughts and prayers. On a personal note, some very good friends of mine live in Boston and while I didn’t know this at the time, my uncle’s wife was actually running in the Boston Marathon. Fortunately for me, everyone that I know there came away physically unscathed. If anyone who wasn’t so fortunate is reading this (unlikely, I know), please know that everyone involved with this site is sending you and your loved ones nothing but our best wishes. 

Having said that, different people deal with tragedies in different ways. Some people block things like sports (and fantasy sports) from their lives, and I completely understand and respect that. As much as we all love sports, they do need to be placed in their proper perspective at times, and this is certainly one of them.

But personally, I’ve always tried to get through days like this by allowing myself to focus on other things. We at the site know that there are a lot of people out there who do things similarly. So we’re going to keep writing and posting stuff for you, today even more than most.

If today is your first exposure to our site, welcome aboard. Likewise, if you’re familiar with us, welcome back. As always, feel free to comment in any way that you see fit and please look back at some of our posts from previous days.

Again, everyone in Boston is in our thoughts and prayers. It’s not only one of the best sport’s towns in the country, but also one of the best cities period. I’ve had the chance to visit my friends there a few times since they moved there a few years ago, and seeing how well Bostonians rushed to help one another was incredible, but not at all surprising. 

Thank you from all of us.

 

 

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Nash, Clave, and I are all in a league together. A few of us are pretty experienced, while most of the players started fantasy baseball in 2011 or 2012. One guy who started in 2012 had a phenomenal year a season ago, finishing in fourth place, beating some pretty experienced players along the way, including one of us — I won’t say who, but his name rhymes with Cash. Anyway, this guy was in realistic contention for the title until the season’s last few weeks. The three of us were impressed.

Well, that same guy let some of his inexperience show and made a really bad trade over the weekend. The kind of trade that once he made it, he instantly regretted it (saying so himself), and probably hoped it would get vetoed. No such luck. Take a look for yourself.

The intricacies of that league actually make that trade a little worse than it looks (hard to believe, I know). But this does bring up something that happens a lot.

If you removed Kendrick, Middlebrooks, Cabrera, and Wilson from that trade, I still would not have taken that move. Hosmer, Kipnis, Sandoval, and Darvish are good players, but they’re not Fielder. Fielder is an elite player, and those aren’t replaced by spare parts, even if they are very good.

Let’s detour a little bit and talk about the NBA. Think about some of the recent NBA champions.While it takes more than one great player for a team to win a championship, how many championship teams have their been who won without a Top-10 (or better) player? Not many. You probably have to go back to the 2004 Pistons to find the last one, and more than 20 years before that. It’s not a common occurrence  You need a good team, but you also need a star to make up for a lot of the team’s shortcomings. 

Fantasy baseball is the exact same way. With pitchers, you can focus a little bit more on quantity, although Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw make up for a lot, you can win a fantasy championship without an elite arm, you just have to have several good ones. But winning a championship, especially in a roto league, without an elite hitter? I don’t like your chances. Head-to-head is a little different, especially if you’re good at streaming, but the overall point doesn’t change much.

Now, there are some players who are genuine contributors in all categories, like Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Andrew McCutchen. But using some 2012 stats, I want to show you guys something using Miguel Cabrera as an example. Just a reminder, I’d like to show all of you guys what Miggy did in the five standard offensive categories used in fantasy baseball.

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
205/622  109 44 139 4 .330

In 2012, Clave, Nash, and I decided to run a standard league with us and seven readers. For those of you unfamiliar, a standard league uses runs, home runs, RBI, SB, and batting average, with 13 active offensive spots (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT). These were the total numbers of the league leaders in each of the five categories.

R HR RBI SB AVG
1127 324 1139 244 .277

Now, we talk a lot about setting goals and generally speaking, trying to be third in each category is a goal. But for a moment, let’s say you were shooting for the top spot in each offensive category. These are the average numbers that you would need from each player to do that in 2012 (rounding up in every case):

R HR RBI SB AVG
87 25 88 19 .277

Now, go back and look at Cabrera’s numbers. You are well ahead of pace in four of the five categories. Now, let’s have a gander at the 2012 numbers of Rajai Davis who is generally speaking, pretty poor in all categories other than stolen bases.

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
115/447 64 8 43 46 .257

And because I want to be a nice guy, I am going to go ahead and combine those numbers for you.

Total:

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
320/1069 173 52 182 50 .299

On average

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
320/1069 87 26 91 25 .299

So, if you were starting with those two alone in 2012, you would be on (or above) pace to win every single offensive category. Now, remember that Davis is at best a late-round pick, so you could have filled your roster with much better players before drafting or signing Davis for the steals.

That’s what a superstar player does. And while it’s true that a lot of good players minus Miggy can put up good numbers, you can’t depend on them like you can with Cabrera. If you’re going with good players, you’re going to have one or two that disappoint every year, even if only slightly. Miggy’s an elite player and would anyone be remotely surprised if he repeated his 2012 stats in 2013? Even if he didn’t, how much of a drop is he going to have? With elite hitters, you have an elite worst case scenario, and that’s just hard to overcome.

Now, if you have an elite hitter, he’s going to be coveted. You’ve probably received trade offers for them and if not, you’re going to throughout the year. So, here’s the question. Who are the elite hitters, and what do you do if you receive an offer for them? Well, here’s part one of that question.

Dixon’s Elite Hitters for 2013

  1. Ryan Braun
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Mike Trout
  4. Robinson Cano
  5. Andrew McCutchen
  6. Matt Kemp
  7. Albert Pujols
  8. Carlos Gonzalez
  9. Joey Votto
  10. Prince Fielder

With some arm twisting, I might move that order around a little bit and on a good day, I could probably be talked in to Justin Upton and Buster Posey, but that’s it. I can’t count on a full season of dominant production from any other hitter in the league.

So then, here’s part 2. What do you do if you receive a trade offer for them?

The answer is really quite simple. If you have one of those players and the trade would not involve you receiving another in return, it’s a very easy decline. Those guys will make up for a lot of deficiencies on your team and will do so reliably.

The Heat wouldn’t trade LeBron James for two very good players and the same logic applies in fantasy baseball. Yes, you need a balanced team to win a championship, but you won’t find that balance without at least one elite hitter. If you get one, don’t let him go unless you get one back, you will lose the trade and in turn, someone else will win the league.

In Drafting, Miscellany, Trades , , , ,
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Spring Training Stats Mean Something

Clave Jones —  April 1, 2013 — Leave a comment
Yasiel Puig had a monster spring but was met with no opening on the Dodger's roster.

Yasiel Puig had a monster spring but was met with no opening on the Dodger’s roster.

Spring training is coming to a close, which means we have 50-80 at bats to consider. I know what you’re thinking, because it’s conventional wisdom: “It’s just spring training. Those stats don’t mean anything.”

This is certainly true to a point. A great spring training doesn’t guarantee a great year any more than a poor spring training means the season is lost.  But spring training stats do mean something, so don’t disregard them entirely. They mean more than the nothing you’ve been told. I’ll share a few things to look for as you make your final tweaks to your Opening Day rosters.

Opportunity

First, the primary thing that can be taken away from spring training is that it can help us determine a player’s opportunity to get at bats.

For as much talk around the accuracy of player projections, it shouldn’t be forgotten that projections are only as good as the estimate of the number of at bats a player receives. Guaranteed at bats and playing time are particularly a consideration when drafting later round players. If a player isn’t getting playing time, then he’s not contributing stats for your fantasy team. Opportunity matters.

Taking a gamble on a player like Domonic Brown is a calculated guess using evidence from his strong spring. Taking all skill out of the equation, we now know he will see opportunities to swing the bat this season.

There is the argument that most fantasy players know guys are going to get playing time because of injuries or roster depth even before spring training starts. Valid argument. But that is confirmed during spring, plus you get an idea of how they’ll fit into their teams’ offense.   There are things that you can speculate on prior to spring training, but are confirmed over the six week during spring training.

Sanity Checks

Spring training offers a sanity check against rumors flying around. When Mike Trout reported to camp having added 20 pounds of muscle, the rumors immediately began flying around the internet that he was now too big to steal bases. The idea was that he was too heavy and that his speed would decrease, which would lead to a drop in steals, a huge fantasy asset.

Mike Trout has 6 spring training steals. It’s foolishness to project those out as a regular season estimate. That’s not how it works. But what it does show us is that he’s running just fine. Concerns about his size were hyped and overblown. Spring put those fears to rest.

A quick glance at spring training stats can serve as evidence to either confirm or deny the stories floating around about players and their skills.

Scouting

Speaking of steals, Ezequiel Carrera has 11 spring stolen bases. Exactly who is Ezequiel Carrera, you ask? He’s a young outfielder for the Cleveland Indians who will not make the team and who realistically has the ceiling of a fourth outfielder. But he clearly has speed, so scratch his name down for future reference. If an opportunity arrises due to injury or he simply gets a September call, you have a candidate for cheap late-season steals.

Jackie Bradley and Yasiel Puig are others examples after their strong springs. Puig has already been sent down and Bradley is likely next. But pocket the list, and use it for future reference. You’ve just done some cheap scouting for potential second half value on your fantasy baseball team.

New Approach

A player’s offseason preparation – or lack there of –is revealed to everyone during spring training. Ask yourself ‘why’ when a player is performing either unexpectedly worse or better during spring training. Did they change their batting stance?  Are they trying a new pitch? Avoid the “best shape of their life” clichés, but do ask why.  The answer to the why question can indicate if a good or bad spring training is a long-term change or “just spring training stats.”

The rule of thumb is that “best shape of my life” rarely is an indicator that translates into a full season of improvement at the plate. Likewise, “fixed a hole in his swing” has dubious long-term success. But when you hear that a pitcher has “added a new pitch” you’d be be wise to pay attention. That can often be more than mere noise.  These things can be seen during spring training.

 

Again, no one is saying that there is a direct correlation between spring training stats and season long success. In that regard, those who say that “they are just spring training stats” are correct. But spring training stats are useful in determining opportunity, to test the validity of rumors, to scout future value, and to judge a player’s new approach. In short, spring training stats mean something, which is more than nothing.

In Drafting, Strategy , , , , ,
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Ask Nash: Mid-Late Round Pitching Strategy

Nash —  March 29, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Dagny Mol.

Photo courtesy of Dagny Mol.

Nash

“I am in the middle of my draft. Most of the upper tier pitchers are gone leaving mostly guys like Samardzija, Lester, Kennedy, and Lincecum. There are many upper level closers. I am tempted to just go after the upper level closers. What do you think about this strategy? My categories are Wins, Strikeouts, home runs Allowed (the lower the better), Saves, ERA, WHIP.”

Ken, Seattle

 

Hey Ken,

Thanks for reading, and great question. I assume that by “upper level closers” you mean that Craig Kimbrel is off the board, but pretty much everyone else is available. Because if Kimbrel was is still on the board at that point, you need to take him, otherwise this decision is a bit tougher.

A good closer here might be the right move, especially if you do not have a closer at all. A guy like Sergio Romo or John Axford can go a long way in giving you something you need. Romo for instance will help stabilize your ERA and WHIP a great deal and gets a fair amount of K/9. Whereas a guy like Axford when he is on can get as many strikeouts in a season as guys like Brandon McCarthy or Mark Buehrle. Of course, both guys also help in the save category, as well.

Now as far as these starters go, I like then in this order:  Tim Lincecum, Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy and Jon Lester.

Lincecum I like because of the bounce-back potential. Just two seasons ago he was a top-tier starter. Granted he is far from that now, and may never return to that level, BUT, this late in a draft, you could do worse than a guy that has 180 K upside.

Samardzija is an absolute workhorse of a pitcher. Think Carl Pavano with arm strength. If his strikeout totals from last year are him turning the corner on becoming a strikeout guy, then his future is very bright. Even if he dips down to where he was before he is still a VERY effective pitcher and great for fantasy purposes.

Ian Kennedy I have never really like a whole lot. He also pitches in a launching pad when at home AND his division is getting tougher each year.  Just think if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez can stay healthy and productive in CO. The D’backs could be in some real trouble in their rebuilding stage.

With Kennedy it appears his 2011 success might be the black sheep of his career as in his other two full seasons he has put up 3.80+ ERA along with 1.20 and 1.30 WHIP, hardly hardly what we saw in 2011. Managers are taking a step back from drafting Kennedy so high so there’s potential to benefit from that backlash. Even still, I prefer the first 2 on this list MUCH more.

Lastly we have Jon Lester.  I would say this is about where Lester should have always been drafted: Aside from his 225 strikeouts in 2009 and 2010, he really has never shown elite stuff. Sometimes high K guys can be overrated in the same way that serious mashers are, like Adam Dunn.

People took Adam Dunn year in and year out knowing they would get killed in AVG, but netting those 40+ homers was worth it to them.  Granted Lester’s ERA and WHIP were never .240 AVG bad, BUT his Career 3.76 ERA and 1.31 WHIP are more like best case scenarios the way he is going. I say wait a round or two more on him and then maybe pull the trigger, unless you took Lincecum here. Hoping for two bounce-back hopeful guys could leave you VERY disappointed.

Well I hope this helps, Ken.

Also feel free to shoot use questions anytime on Facebook during the season. One of us is almost ALWAYS on.

Nash

In Ask Nash, Drafting, Miscellany, Strategy , , , , , ,
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Who’d you rather: Will Middlebrooks or Todd Frazier?

Michael Dixon —  March 28, 2013 — 2 Comments
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

In a few years, it’s very possible baseball fans everywhere will be looking at 2012 as a landmark season. A seemingly endless amount of rookies debuted or at least became full time players for the first time.

Will Middlebrooks debuted in 2012 and got off to a hot start before an injury. Todd Frazier debuted in 2011, but kept his rookie eligibility, becoming a full timer for the first time during the season and finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Bryce Harper and Wade Miley.

Both Middlebrooks and Frazier play the hot corner, third base. But if you could only have one of these young bucks, who would it be?

Before we get going, I want to ask you guys a few trivia questions about the third base position.

  1. How many players with 3B eligibility in 2013 hit 20 or more homers in 2012?
  2. Of the same list of players, how many drove in 70 runs?

The answers will be at the bottom, so you have to read this whole thing first. I mean it, don’t scroll down or I’ll, well, I’ll have very hurt feelings.

Okay, Will Middlebrooks and Todd Frazier. Who’d you rather? Let’s take a look at some variables.

 

The Stat Line

Take a look at what these two did in the majors 2012:

H/AB BB R HR RBI SB AVG/OBP/SLG
Frazier 115/422 36 55 19 67 3 .273/.331/.498
Middlebrooks 77/267 13 34 15 54 4 .288/.325/.509

At a glance, this would appear to be advantage Middlebrooks, especially in the power department. In 155 fewer at bats, he was just four total homers and 13 RBI shy of Frazier. Throw in a higher batting average, and this would seem to be a no-brainer. Granted, Frazier has a slightly higher OBP, but that’s not a standard category in fantasy baseball and the gap isn’t exactly that great anyway. So, this is Middlebrooks in a walkover, right?

Not necessarily. The advantage to Frazier is that he has more at bats. Pitchers have had a chance to adjust to him and he’s had a chance to adjust back. That hasn’t happened with Middlebrooks. Not yet, anyway. Also, consider that his batting average was 15 points lower, but his OBP was five points higher. That’s indicative that Middlebrooks is a bit more aggressive (he also strikes out at a higher rate), which means that he’s a little easier for quality pitchers to expose.

So, even with a higher ceiling from Middlebrooks, Frazier gives you a steadier baseline.

 

The Help

Frazier has has Shin-Soo Choo, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Ryan Ludwick, and Jay Bruce as help. Middlebrooks has Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, and David Ortiz. Not bad in Boston, but Frazier clearly has the better teammates. So, advantage Frazier, right? Again, not so fast.

With a little help from our friends at MLBdepthcharts, let’s take a look at where Middlebrooks and Frazier figure to stand in their respective lineups. Right now, they have Frazier batting sixth for the Reds, and Middlebrooks batting fifth for the Red Sox. At bats do matter here and a fifth hitter will get more than a sixth hitter. Additionally, every one of Middlebrooks’ top teammates is either old, has an injury history, or both. That’s not really the case in Cincinnati. Again, that seems like an advantage for Frazier, but it also means that Frazier is more likely to be stuck in the sixth spot. Middlebrooks could easily see some time at the top of the Boston order.

If Boston’s lineup was terrible, that wouldn’t matter as much. But those hitters are still competent, so the advantage here goes to Middlebrooks.

 

Looking Deeper

If you’re a Middlebrooks supporter, you’ve probably made this point in one way or another here, but while Frazier did give Major League pitchers a chance to adjust to him, he didn’t really adjust back. Frazier had a strong summer, batting .306 in July and .330 in August, but hit .176 in the season’s final month. That’s against expanded rosters, meaning Major League players should be improving facing thinned out competition, especially since Frazier did play the season before in September.

While he hasn’t lagged badly, Frazier is hardly tearing up the Grapefruit League, while Middlebrooks is doing pretty well, showing a more consistent stroke, though the Spring Training power edge lies with Frazier.

An edge that Frazier has is position eligibility. Both are third basemen, but Frazier can play first for your fantasy team.

 

Who’d you Rather?

Let’s look at our Draft Kit numbers for both:

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG/OBP/SLG
Middlebrooks 143/538 70 21 77 5 .266/.310/.439
Frazier 141/524 70 23 80 10 .269/.325/.469

You’ll have a hard time finding two players at the same position who are as close as those two are. It’s really a dealer’s choice, and this dealer chooses Middlebrooks.

Frazier’s games played edge gives him the better baseline, but his 2012 finish worries me, and while first base eligibility is nice, it’s not exactly a position where many fantasy owners find themselves desperate for help.

Also, batting down in the order in the National League is going to hurt his run totals, as all of his top teammates won’t be there to drive him in. He’ll be getting the Reds worst hitters, and their pitchers.

Of the two, Middlebrooks is more likely to have a true star caliber season. When comparing Matt Cain and Cole Hamels, I took Cain. The reason there is that I saw him as a more stable option, as even if Hamels has a more transcendent year, Cain’s numbers will still be solid across the board. Those are front-line pitchers and with front-line players (hitters or pitchers), I’ll generally be inclined to take the more stable option.

Middlebrooks and Frazier aren’t front-line players, though. Not yet, anyway. In my two snake drafts this year, both players were mid-late round picks both times. At that point of the draft, I like to gamble a little bit and go with the higher ceiling, even if the floor is lower. So, while we project these two close to each other, I’m going with Middlebrooks.

 

Now, are you ready for those answers? Okay!

  1. 12 players: Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Chase Headley, Pedro Alvarez, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez, Trevor Plouffe, David Wright, David Freese, Mike Moustakas, and Kyle Seager.
  2. 13 players: Miguel Cabrera, Chase Headley, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, David Freese, Chris Johnson, Mike Moustakas, and Martin Prado.

Nowhere on either of those lists are Middlebrooks or Frazier. Another name absent there is Brett Lawrie, who we also have high hopes for this year. Third base is still viewed by some as a razor-thin position, but there’s plenty of value there. Don’t worry too much about the hot corner if you miss out on the top names.

In Drafting, Miscellany, Strategy , , , , , ,
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2013 Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles: Shelby Miller

Michael Dixon —  March 26, 2013 — Leave a comment
Shelby Miller is a bright spot for a bright Cardinals organization. Photo courtesy of Greg Nelson

Shelby Miller is a bright spot for a bright Cardinals organization.
Photo courtesy of Greg Nelson

There’s always a tendency to look young in fantasy baseball. One of the trendy names this year has been Shelby Miller of the Cardinals. It makes sense, Miller ranks sixth on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospect list. But while his long term future is bright, what kind of 2013 can we expect from the St. Louis fire-baller?

 

What we know he’ll bring

Let’s start with the basics. He’s listed as the fifth starter on the depth chart on the St. Louis website. When you’re a starter on a perennial playoff contender that hasn’t had a losing season since 2007, there’s a pretty good chance that you’ll rack up some wins. The 2012 Cardinals scored the fifth most runs in baseball in 2012, and that run support helped four of their pitchers (Lance Lynn, Kyle Lohse, Adam Wainwright, and Jake Westbrook) win 13 or more games. Say what you want about how indicative a win is of a pitcher’s value, but if he stays in the rotation all year, Miller will likely win at least 10 games. That’s a nice fallback plan.

But let’s be real. Miller’s main draw are his strikeouts. Even more than a likely good W-L record, those will come in a pretty big way. Don’t believe me? Look at the numbers.

IP K K/9
Minors (2009-2012) 383.2 472 11.1
Majors (2012-postseason included) 17 20 10.6

Not bad. Not bad at all. With the exception of a three-inning stint in 2009, Miller has never had a K/9 rate under 9.2 in a professional season.

Admittedly, young arms are generally watched very closely by their organizations and no chances are taken. But if Miller throws only 120 innings and goes at a 9.2 K/9 rate, you’re looking at about the same amount of total strikeouts that Jeremy Hellickson had in 177 innings in 2012, and more than Clayton Richard had in 218.2 innings in 2012. Mind you, Richard’s not a strikeout guy, but he did have a sub 4.00 ERA and a WHIP under 1.25.

Now, I don’t know if he’ll be under an innings watch this year like Stephen Strasburg was in 2012, but it’s nice to know that even if the Cardinals are conservative with him, he’ll bring plenty of strikeouts.

 

Where you should be nervous

Miller sometimes throws like a guy who just turned 22, which is the case. While he showed decent control in limited MLB time in 2012, his walk rates have been pretty ugly in the minors. In his Minor League career, Miller averaged 3.2 walks per nine innings, with the total never really improving. Look at the totals.

  • 2010, A: 2.8 BB/9
  • 2011, A+/AA: 3.4 BB/9
  • 2012, AAA: 3.3 BB/9

Now that he’s theoretically going to have a full Major League season against hitters who are generally more selective than any seen in the minors, I worry about that rate getting above 3.5, or even higher (which is what we project in our Draft Kit). That’s going to amount to an ugly WHIP. Really, even in the minors, Miller has never thrived in the WHIP department.

  • 2010: 1.246
  • 2011: 1.181
  • 2012: 1.376

That works out to a total WHIP of 1.277 in the minors, which is hardly a sign of a pitcher who’s ready to be dominant in the majors. High walk rates are not only WHIP killers but against good offenses, they’re ERA killers, and if he’s allowing a lot of runs, he’ll either be losing a lot of games, or pulled before he can earn a win.

 

Overall outlook

Miller has a bright future, that’s really undeniable. But looking at 2013, you have to ask yourself one question. Is his stuff good enough to overcome the walks so they don’t kill his ERA?

For me, Miller is the kind of guy to gamble on. He’s probably a late-rounder, or even a waiver wire guy (unless you’re in a keeper or dynasty league). He’s got great stuff and I’m confident that will help keep his ERA from exploding.

Having said that, he’s not an every-start pitcher. Not yet, anyway. So, I’m only really suggesting those in leagues with moderately deep benches target him.

In the early going I’d only start him against weaker lineups, and teams that don’t draw many walks. In the National League, I’m looking at opponents like the Cubs, Pirates, Marlins, Mets, and Padres. As it happens, the Cardinals face the Pirates twice, and the Cubs once before Mother’s Day, with the Mets on the schedule right after, and the Padres the following week.

If you roster Miller, only start him against those teams first two months. That could theoretically mean that you miss out on a great start but with his walk rate and the opponents they’re playing, I doubt anything will be that good. See where he’s at heading into June and go from there. He’s a special arm that fantasy owners should be excited about, so long as they keep their excitement within reason.

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Auditing an Auction Draft

Nash —  March 23, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Todd Awbrey.

Photo courtesy of Todd Awbrey.

Last Sunday night, Clave, Dixon and I all participated in an auction draft. Dixon suggested that perhaps I audit the league draft. Of course I am not going to go player by player, that would be tedious and we’d be here for a long time.

But we write a lot about drafts and auctions. It’s easy to speculate on things but now that’s one’s actually been done, it can actually be a lot more helpful to see what different players have gone for, and whether it was a good price or not. That’s what I’m going to do today, and I’d also like to show you how to do this for your own drafts.

Before getting into the players, we need to go over some basic things. Most leagues out there are 10-12 teams, with 25 total roster spots (22 starters 3 bench spots plus one DL) They also only use the basic 5×5 categories and in an auction draft each manager gets $260.  he league we drafted for is a 12-team league, with 23 total roster spots )17 starters, 6 bench plus 2 DL spots).  We also begin with $300 in our draft wallet.  There are also many more intricacies to this league, but they’re not relevant to this post.

So I did some simple math to find out the relative dollar amounts for these leagues. Overall in a typical league you have $10.4 to spend per player. In our league we had $13 per player. I divide $13 by $10.4 and I got 1.25, which I will use to figure out the relative amount paid per player.

For instance I got Jon Axford for $11. I simply divided $11 by 1.25 and i get 8.8. After rounding and adding a dollar sign, I paid the equivalent of $9  in a typical draft.

According to our Draft Kit, Axford should have been a $4 player in a 10-team league.  there is, of course  a small markup for larger leagues as more auction money is available.

So let’s say he should have gone for $6, I paid a little more than I should have. However according to the site we play through Axford should have gone for about $10 in a 12 team league, so I actually saved buck. One thing we must acknowledge is that this is not an exact science because there are many variables that attribute to how much we bid on players and why, BUT, I hope this gives you a little primer for the rest of this article.

Overpaying by a couple of dollars here and there is not bad at all in an auction draft. What you want to avoid is overpaying by a lot, and of course just as bad, losing out on a player because you didn’t want to overpay by a few dollars and leaving money on the table at the end of the draft, which I did.

The idea is that you use up all your funds, get all the players you wanted, and of course win your league. So, what is overpaying by too much?  Well, if you pay $2 for a $1 player, you paid double the “market value”. However an extra dollar to get a guy like Jayson Werth is a great deal, which Clave lucked out with on in Sunday’s draft. Let’s say you double pay for a guy like Sergio Romo, which one owner did (cough) Dixon (cough). This is a bit of a bigger hit on a bankroll because Romo was $10 according to our rankings and $8 in our site’s rankings.  Dixon paid $20 for Romo which if we do our math: 20/1.25=16

He still overpaid, right?  Well on paper and technically speaking, yes he did. However in the same auction draft Jason Motte went for $20 as well. Motte was ranked $13 and $14 dollars on our rankings and on our site’s rankings, respectively. But is Jason Motte really worth 3-6 dollars more than Sergio Romo? Hardly. Our site had him worth $3, which I can understand, However Jason Motte is not $6 better than Romo, no way. And remember I paid $11 in that draft for John Axford. Even though Axford when he is on, provides a heck of a lot of Ks as an RP, he has been on the decline the past couple of seasons.

So in terms of the market value on closers during our draft you have to understand that the price tag did not meet what guys were going for.  The best auction drafters are those who can spot that right away in drafts and go with it. On the other end, you have guys that are sucked into a bad market on players while drafts are going on.

A few of the early pitchers went for a too much in my opinion. Cliff Lee went for $36, Matt Cain went for $33 and Gio Gonzalez went for $31. For the sake of your leagues, our math says the following: Lee= $29 Cain= $26 Gio= $25.

In our projections we valued them at: Lee= $22, Cain= $25, Gio= $18. Cain was closest to his and was a good price over all. However Lee and Gio were purchases made in haste, because of the appearance of a rapidly dwindling market on starting pitchers. Had the owners passed and waited 20 minutes or so for the action to slow down they would have been able to get guys like: Mat Latos for $21 or Dan Haren for $14. Much more adequate prices for those types of pitchers.

Of course I do not know exactly how the extra money spent on those pitchers affected their owners through the rest of the draft.  I am sure mentally they were more aware of their lack of funds and perhaps pulled out of bidding on a few guys here and there, but they are likely never to admit that to anyone.

However my strategy for nominating players early in auctions is to nominate guys I want no part in because I know that people are more apt to over bid early, therefore I want as much money out of guys wallets early as I can get.  I know I have overpaid plenty in my day, so the one thing I always remind myself is to learn from my past mistakes. That’s really the most importan

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How to Win via ESPN

Clave Jones —  March 22, 2013 — 1 Comment
I'm unaware if ESPN has fantasy tennis leagues.

I’m unaware if ESPN has fantasy tennis leagues.

Three trillion beings across seven planets play fantasy baseball through ESPN’s website. OK, I made that up, but still, impressive right? And while I don’t know about fantasy baseball’s galactic reach, we do know for certain that the number of fantasy baseball players is in the tens of millions. Come at us, advertisers!

ESPN is the worldwide leader in the sport (or at least we’re led to believe). I’m going to tell you how you can use this fact to beat your friends in the game of fantasy baseball. But first, we need to back peddle just a bit.

I enjoy contemplating the deep strategies of fantasy baseball, which means I’m a hoot at parties. I also like to analyze the strategies with other fantasy baseball…well, analysts. I like to analyze with analysts because I’m an analyzer, OK?

A question I asked the other fun party guys was if it is player player evaluation (Think: best player projections) or strategy (Think: How you manage your fantasy baseball team) that provides the greatest boost to sustained fantasy baseball success. Some great thoughts were shared and the experts agreed that both were important, but were split on which – player evaluation or strategy – got the clear nod. It’s like the old question of which is more important: hitting, pitching, or defense? The answer: Yes.

Although I think player evaluation is vitally important, I think that everyone has equal access to good player evaluation tools, negating much of the competitive advantage you get from player evaluation. So my bias is that strategy plays the largest role in fantasy baseball success, and I believe that the widespread availability of solid player evaluation can actually be used against your opponents. (Now we’re getting to the meat of the post!)

Let me explain. MIllions of fantasy baseball players draft their teams via the ESPN website and few do much research outside of the rankings that ESPN places right in front of their face. They have been assimilated by the Borg. OK, it’s a little harsh to say that millions of guys are mentally unfit to resist mind control from an alien cybernetic collective hive-mind and it’s equally foolish of me to drop a Star Trek reference into this piece, further manifesting my geekery. So let’s just say I was talking about Björn Borg, former Swedish tennis champion.

But it certainly is fair to assume that these millions of fantasy baseball players are influenced by the projections in front of them, explicitly or not, and most of them aren’t thinking about how they are influenced by them. Did Matthew Berry say I should draft Michael Bourn first overall?!? Well, I must submit to my ESPN overlord!

ESPN places a player evaluation tool directly in front of the eyes of millions of fantasy baseball drafters, it significantly influences their drafting behavior, and I’m going to give you a step-by-step guide as to how to use this against your opponents.

STEP 1: Do some research outside of ESPN.

I could have just as easily said do some research outside of your primary fantasy baseball league provider. The point is to do overlay at least two quality sources, for comparing and contrasting.

Take a note of where ESPN (or your provider of choice) is suggesting that players should be drafted. Your league mates will have this information directly in front of them, staring them down, and whether they know it or not, they will be influenced by it. By doing some independent research you are able to spot trends, differences in average draft position, and significant projection differences that they don’t see.

Use that to your advantage.

STEP 2: Have confidence in your own research.

You now have your own research in front of you. The next step is to learn to trust it. You’ll be going against the grain now, which can be difficult. We are intentionally passing on some picks because you feel like ESPN has them ranked too high. You’ll be reaching for some players that you found that ESPN has too low. You’re now off the grid, drafting outside of what is being pushed directly in front of your face.

Your league mates might even be giving you grief at this point, but you are still confident because you know that while everyone is drafting off the data being simply fed to them, you are drafting off data that you’ve researched on your own and compared against the data in front of you.

Remember though that confidence isn’t the same as bluster. Make sure you have a blueprint. Yes, go against the grain, but don’t go against the grain simply to go against the grain. This is a strategic draft plan.

STEP 3: Stay strong.

You’ll be both reaching for players at times and passing on players at times and it can create anxiety to go against the pick that is suggested right in front of you. But defy expectations and stay strong, being confident in your plan.

Don’t panic because the end of a draft can be a valuable time. Stick until the end.

 

ESPN’s player evaluation data is in front of millions of eyeballs and front and center in millions of draft lobbies. It would be foolish to think that we and our league mates aren’t influenced by it. Just remember that it can provide you a clear advantage if you do outside research, strategically formula a plan to go against type, and have the confidence to follow through. Happy drafting.

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10 Fantasy Baseball Auction Draft Tips

Clave Jones —  March 21, 2013 — Leave a comment
Did you know that Rizzo had a 11.6% LOZL in 2012? Neither did your league mates! Image courtesy Curtis Kuhn.

Did you know that Rizzo had a 11.08% wLOLZ in 2012? Neither did your league mates!
Image courtesy Curtis Kuhn.

Auction drafts aren’t for children. They take drafting to a higher level with their seriously slippery strategy. In auction leagues you can’t just show up expecting it to go the way you’d hoped. There are too many variables; too many moving parts to have a rigid, non-flexible strategy. It’s a wild west unpredictability. You wouldn’t bring a checkerboard to a chess match, would you? Wait, I guess you would bring the board…it’s the pieces you wouldn’t…ah, nevermind.

But man, auctions are fun!

Here are 10 tips that will help you compete in your fantasy baseball auction league this year:

1. Go Broke. You aren’t playing with real money so it doesn’t earn interest. If you have money left on the table at the end of the draft, you did a poor job. If you have $34 out of your $260 budget left you could’ve spent that $34 on Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, or Buster Posey. Leave the draft with a $0 balance and a sore throat from trash talking the other owners who left money on the table.

2. Caffeine is your friend. An auction takes considerably longer than a snake draft. Late in the draft other managers are getting tired, losing their edge. Not you. You are sharp as a tack and hanging ’til the bitter end! Because the end of an auction draft is where bargains can be found. So draft caffeinated! (Just don’t draft drunk. That could lead to drafting a Yankee.)

3. You Got Yours! If you’ve just shelled out big bucks for a stud like Robinson Cano, then toss out a nomination for another superstar in the same position like Ian Kinsler or Dustin Pedroia. If you’ve gotten your Cliff Lee, then nominate Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, or Felix Hernandez. You got your superstar, now make them get theirs. This will run your competition out of money in a position you no longer need and put you back on an equal financial footing.

4. Play a Homer - I don’t mean bid higher on home run guys, I mean home town favorite homer. If you are in a league with a couple guys who are die-hard Cubs fans then use that to your advantage. If you already have Jose Reyes as your shortstop and it is your turn to nominate a player then nominate Starlin Castro. The Cubs fans will sell their grandma’s gold earrings to draft him, meaning you are running them out of money. Know who your league mates’ favorites are and if you don’t want them then drive up the price for them.

5. No Two Auctions are Ever Alike You undoubtedly picked this up in the intro, so this is just a tip to further help you manage your expectations. Just because last year’s auction featured high prices on closers doesn’t mean you can expect this year’s to be the same. Did last year see stars like Ryan Braun and Joey Votto go for reasonable values? Don’t count on it for this year.

Auctions are a place where you need to keep a flexible strategy. If you come in expecting the auction to look exactly like last year, then you’ll panic (Here’s How to Panic Well!) when you realize that it has a whole new flavor this time around. Keep it loose, keep it tight.

6. Draft the Guys You Want Make yourself a budget and try – if possible (see #5 above) – to stick to it. But if you are missing out on the guys you want by $2-3 each time then you need to start going for it. Don’t walk away regretting that you could’ve had Mike Trout for an extra buck. I promise you that dollar guy at the end of the draft isn’t worth it.

7. Magazines Under-Value Stars First, don’t be that guy that comes to a draft with a magazine! In fact, whatever source of advice you use on your draft you must tailor it to your league. It’s just a guide, so blaze your own trail. One area you need to walk your own path is when it comes to superstars.

I’d be shocked if the first 20 players go for the values listed in a magazine. As the first few players are nominated, owners juices are flowing and they are staring at a full piggy bank. It only makes sense that those names will go for higher prices.

As you prepare your budget you’ll need to fudge the numbers and put a little more toward superstars. Remember, stay flexible.

8. Know Your Enemy Unless you are Rain Man you won’t be able to keep track of everyone else’s team. But you need to have a general idea of how much money is left on the board.

Most auction software makes it simple to take a quick glance and see which teams are burning through their money. If a team is low and funds and they are the only team bidding against you, then that’s information that you can use to your advantage. If you don’t really want the player then drop it on them. You’ve now completely run them out of money and they’ll be quiet for much of the rest of the draft.

Likewise, if another owner is at the end of the bidding on nearly every player but hasn’t rostered any of them, then they are likely just trying to drive up the prices for everyone else. Make him eat a bid on a player that you know he doesn’t want and he’ll quiet down for a few picks.

9. Keep Your Eyes on Your Team Ignore #8 above if it is too distracting to do a quick evaluation of the other owner’s teams. The single greatest thing about an auction is that every player is available to you. If you get caught putzing around looking at the other team’s rosters you might miss a bid. Don’t stray too far from home.

Ultimately, it’s your team you are drafting so get into the zone if you need to and be prepared to pull the trigger on a guy you want. You only get to draft once a year so make it a good one!

10. Understand You’re Sometimes Competing Against the AutoDraft Online drafting has made things a breeze, but it’s also introducing absentee owners. These auto drafters can really swing an auction so it’s wise to understand how to use it to your advantage. Here is How To Defeat the Autodraft.

Bonus Tip: Heckle Creatively Make sure you politely remind another owner when he pays too much for an average player. Never miss an opportunity to mention an injury. Heck, make up a stat that sounds bad and could potentially spell doom! “Ha! Anthony Rizzo only had a 11.08% zLOLZ and only mustered a +3 saving throw on dexterity in 2012!” He’ll have no idea that is utter nonsense, but the other owner is now a) intimidated by your superior statistical mind and b) is now bidding scared. It’s a win/win for you, making it a lose/lose for him.

When he tells you to “quit trying to get into his head”, gently remind him that “you are already in his head.”

Auctions are fun.

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Who’d you Rather: Josh Willingham or Mark Trumbo?

Michael Dixon —  March 20, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of loririlling.

Photo courtesy of loririlling.

At a glance, Josh Willingham and Mark Trumbo would appear to be similar players. If they come up with men on base, they can easily put up a crooked number against your team with one swing of the bat, and do so in spectacular fashion. Another similarity is that if they don’t hit the long ball, there’s a pretty good chance that they’ll be heading back to the bench with a K to their name.

Take a look at what these guys have done on average over the last two seasons.

R HR RBI SB AVG K
Willingham 77 32 104 7 .253 146
Trumbo 66 30 91 6 .261 136

There are a few gaps there, but it’s not hard to see why we have these two ranked pretty close in our Draft Kit. Trumbo is the 28th ranked outfielder, while Willingham comes in at 32. In the Top 251, Trumbo is 94, while Willingham is 104. Our projections for each are more of the same.

R HR RBI SB AVG
Willingham 80 32 90 2 .261
Trumbo 69 32 89 4 .260

They look pretty similar, but if I could only have one for 2013, who would I be?


Where Willingham’s better

Some do, but standard leagues don’t count OBP. Still, Willingham is far better there. Over the last two years, his OBP is .350, while Trumbo’s is .305. That’s a huge gap, especially when the slight batting average advantage goes to Trumbo. Even if your league doesn’t count OBP or walks, that does matter.

It’s pretty simple, but what’s the first thing that needs to happen if you’re going to score a run in a baseball game? Well, you need to get on base. So, while their numbers are pretty similar across the board, Willingham has averaged 11 runs per year more than Trumbo has over the last two seasons. How much of a difference that can make depends on your league. In the two roto leagues I was in last year, 11 runs meant much different things. But know that it could conceivably be about two points.

The RBI gap can be more attributed to chances. Their home run totals and batting averages are similar, as are their slugging percentages (Willingham – .501, Trumbo – .484). I’d venture a guess that with Trumbo hitting behind the likes of Mike Trout for a full season, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton, he’ll close that gap this year, although Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau aren’t slouches.

But while Trumbo did improve his OBP in 2012 (.291 to .317), he’s still well below average in that category. That’s really going to hurt is runs scored in comparison to Willingham. Certainly, more leagues are counting stats like walks or OBP and if you’re in a league like that, Willingham is a lot better in those areas. Trumbo needs to close the gap elsewhere to be as valuable.

 

Where Trumbo’s better

Trumbo’s younger, significantly younger. While I know that I said this is a comparison for 2013 and not a keeper league, that is a factor. It’s a factor because Willingham has never been a model of durability. In 2012, his age 33 season, he played 145 games, his career high. That’s not exactly something that gets better with age.

To be fair, Trumbo himself has never played 150 games in a season, but with the exception of being a 2010 September call-up, he’s only had two chances. He’s also never played fewer than 144 games, a number Willingham has only hit twice. When one player is 34 with a history of missing time, it’s hard to give him the nod over a 27-year-old who doesn’t have the same problems.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Trumbo also has better teammates. While he won’t get the benefit of being driven in by Pujols or Hamilton, the Angels lineup is a lot better top to bottom than the Twins.

The other advantage Trumbo has is position eligibility. Willingham is just an outfielder (left field if your league does individual positions), while Tumbo is an outfielder (both corner positions) and first baseman, and could possibly pick up eligibility at third, as he played eight games there in 2012. To be fair, first isn’t really a position that needs much depth and third isn’t as shallow as some people seem to think, but being able to play a few extra positions is always an edge.

 

 

Who’d you rather

There’s not much separating these guys, When we were ranking these guys, it was really hard to find any separation. It wasn’t random by any means, but the 10-spot difference in their overall ranking isn’t than monumental, which it is between our No. 1 (Ryan Braun) and No. 11 (Giancarlo Stanton). The difference between 94 and 104 can easily be shaken up if literally a few swings of the bat go different than we expect.

With that, I am going to go off of the Draft Kit a little and go with Willingham.

Trumbo’s struggles at the end of 2012 really concern me, as he had an AVG./OBP of .204/.264 in August, and .214/.233 in September/October, after a solid first four months. That tells me that the league figured something out about him and he couldn’t really adjust back. That’s a concern, especially if we’re looking at one year.

Would you want to know what else worries me? Over the last two years, Trumbo has played in 293 games while Willingham has played in 281.

Now, six games per season isn’t a massive difference, but you’d think that that would give Trumbo an edge in the counted stats, wouldn’t you? Well, Willingham was better in every single counted stat. He did strike out a few more times, but that means very little when he’s better everywhere else, even if your league counts strikeouts against.

Ultimately, I do think Trumbo will become a bit more well rounded and he certainly has prodigious power right now, but I trust Willingham more in 2013.

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