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Fantasy Baseball Time Travel: 2014′s First Round Draft Picks

Clave Jones —  May 21, 2013 — 9 Comments
Could Bryce Harper go #1 overall next year?

Could Bryce Harper go #1 overall next year?

I’m in one league where less than an month into the season and a couple of owners blew up their teams. I guess they couldn’t take the poor performance of their top draft picks.

Well, if those owners are already looking ahead to next’s year’s draft, then let’s look with them.  Based upon the play of this April, who would be the first round picks next year?

Now before some joker with poor reading comprehension comments on how it’s only April and much too early to think about next year’s draft, we all realize this is for fun, right? Just like those owners shouldn’t have blown up their teams after just one month, it’s silly to be thinking about next year’s draft after just one month.

Let’s do it anyway!

Realizing that drafts were different, I’ll just list 15 guys who were the odd’s on bets to be a first round pick in most leagues. We’ll give them a pass / fail grade, then jump forward to the 15 guys whose present performance is laying claim to a first round draft pick in 2014.

Miguel Cabrera gets a passing grade for certain. He went #1 overall in lots of drafts and is proving why in that he’s following up a Triple Crown season with even stronger numbers this season.

Ryan Braun isn’t having a career year, but owners should hardly be disappointed with much, unless they are fixated on his having just two stolen bases.

Mike Trout got off to a slow start and those who love to say ‘told you so’ were more than happy to decry a sophomore slump. Well, he warmed up quickly and proved that the critics spoke too soon.

Robinson Cano has once again been unspectacularly spectacular. He’s proven that he was worthy of a top pick by once again hitting for power and average.

Andrew McCutchen has seen his average free fall this year, while his homers and steals have been respectable. Owners who drafted him high hoping for an increase on his 2012 success may be wishing they took another pick.

Matt Kemp has been horrible. His average is slowly climbing as are his steals but a single home run is not first round material, particularly not for someone who has 40/40 potential.

Joey Votto loves to take long walks, something I’ve written about before. His average is superb and he’s starting to swing away a bit, but you hope for more homers and RBI from a first round pick.

Albert Pujols has seen his slow starts last longer and longer. At some point they will simply last all season. I think he’s already showing that he doesn’t belong in first round conversation much longer.

Carlos Gonzalez already has 30 runs, is hitting for power and stealing bases, while doing everything else that you hope a first round pick will do. I have to imagine his owners are pleased thus far.

Prince Fielder was probably drafted late in round one if he didn’t slide into the early second. Well, he’s performed like a late first round pick, so I can’t imagine anyone is displeased.

Troy Tulowitzki has been on the field all season and played like we all know he can play. He’s a first round pick if healthy.

Justin Verlander was most likely a second round pick, but I did hear of a few guys going against the grain to grab a pitcher first. I’m sure they are pleased with his performance thus far.

Buster Posey was likewise a probably second round pick, although his slow start would be hard=pressed to justify even that thus far. But he’s thawing out.

David Wright was snatched up by some guys who like to grab thin positions early. He’s rewarded them with solid all-around play.

Giancarlo Stanton has 50 homer potential so he snuck into the first round in a lot of drafts. So far it’s been an absolutely wasted pick.

Shockingly, the first round has held up quite well, considering that on average a full 40% of first rounders fail to return first round value. Maybe this is a year that we see that number dip and see owners rewarded for their early pick. With that in mind, let’s list out 14 for 2014, just for fun.

  1. Miguel Cabrera: Based upon his history and early season numbers, there is little reason not to look at him early in 2014.
  2. Ryan Braun: While it looks like his steals will tumble somewhat, he’s still got that track record you like in the first round.
  3. Justin Upton: He’s flashed MVP before and it looks like his age plus potential will rocket him up draft charts.
  4. Bryce Harper: He’s showing insane power at a freakishly early age. Why wouldn’t you draft him early in 2014?
  5. Mike Trout: Maybe his slow start will give drafters pause. But it looks like there is little doubt that he’ll be drafted high in 2014.
  6. Carlos Gonzalez: While he is hitting for average while flashing power and speed, he’ll be a solid #1 again.
  7. Robinson Cano: There will be so much contract chatter that folks will grow sick off hearing about him. Still, they’d be nuts not to draft him.
  8. Paul Goldschmidt: Why not? He’s now had plenty at bats to prove he’s for real. He takes the spot Pujols used to occupy as an elite first baseman.
  9. Evan Longoria: He’s right now putting together the season that folks knew he could. It’s not unimaginable he’ll be the second third baseman off the board.
  10. David Wright: One more year before his speed goes in decline and Manny Machado is making him look like yesterday’s news. But never underestimate the masses drafting a solid track record in the first round.
  11. Adam Jones: He goes a little under the radar, but he’s following up a break-out season with another gem. His stock will rise.
  12. Matt Kemp: His horrible start will scare off many, but the wise will realize that he’ll be a steal in this slot.
  13. Andrew McCutchen: Many will say his 2012 was a career year. Others will draft for a repeat in 2014.
  14. Troy Tulowitzki: It was hard not putting Joey Votto in this spot (or even Anthony Rizzo), but if Votto hits under 25 homers, folks will go for the thin SS position, provided Tulo stays on the field.

It’s obviously too early to tell, but is there anyone I missed that you think will be a first rounder in 2014? Let us know via Twitter or in the comments.

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March Madness: 16 Sweet Fantasy Baseball Prospects for Dynasty Leagues

Clave Jones —  March 25, 2013 — 2 Comments
Byron Buxton is one of baseball's top prospects, but is he THE best prospect for Dynasty Leagues? Image courtesy of Flickr.

Byron Buxton is one of baseball’s top prospects, but is he THE best prospect for Dynasty Leagues? Image courtesy of Flickr.

It’s March Madness folks, which means it’s time to think about…baseball prospects!

Specifically, we’re looking for the prospects who have the most value in dynasty leagues and we’re going to cut straight to the Sweet 16.

They are seeded according to 4 “fantasy tools”, meaning their potential in hitting home runs, stealing bases, hitting tool, or ace potential. Without further adieu, our prospects in the dance:

Power

Miguel Sano (Minnesota Twins) versus Wil Myers (Tampa Bay Rays)

Wil Myers got a lot attention as a result of the James Shields trade. Myers – the 2012 Minor League Player of the year – had fantasy owners giddy with his 30+ home run potential. While the Rays are starting him off in the minors, it won’t be long before he’s raking in the bigs and drawing Jay Bruce comparisons with a higher upside, particularly with average.

But Myers got the attention only because folks have yet to wrap their arms around Miguel Sano, not that they could wrap their arms around the 6’3″ 210 beast of a 19-year-old. Sano grades out as a true 80 on the 20-80 scout’s scale, which truly puts his power (described as “light tower” or “Godfather”) in rarified territory. He’s still a couple years away and there are concerns about him sticking at 3B, but he’ll draw Giancarlo Stanton comparisons when he does make it to the show.

While it was tempting to go with Myers because he’ll make a splash this season, Sano’s power is worth waiting on in dynasty leagues. Sano advances.

Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox) versus Carlos Correa (Houston Astros)

Xander Bogaerts (Boston Red Sox) has a chance to stick at shortstop and hit .280+ with 30+ homers. That’s Troy Tulowitzki territory. He has some warts like his plate discipline and defense, although the matter doesn’t matter much in fantasy as long as he starts at shortstop to establish his eligibility there.

I’m a sucker for what could be and Carlos Correa absolutely oozes potential, which is what made him the #1 overall pick last year. He could be a Alex Rodriguez in his youth or Hanley Ramirez in his prime. Unfortunately, he’s just 17 and there are a lot of developmental hurdles to get over before then.

While hard to pass on Correa’s potential, there are no guarantees and Bogaerts is closer to the Show. Bogaerts advances.

Stolen Bases

Billy Hamilton (Cincinnati Reds)  versus Christian Yelich (Miami Marlins)

I’ve written about Billy Hamilton before, specifically a thought experiment of his value as a pinch runner only. Just as Sano grades an 80 on power, Hamilton is a true 80 on the speed scale and the the minor league record for most steals in a season. At worst, he’ll hit well enough in the Majors and his speed will single handedly win fantasy owners the stolen base category. He could dwarf the career of Kenny Lofton.

Christian Yelich should actually be a fine all around hitter, potentially hitting 18-22 homers while competing for batting titles. But he won’t dominate a single category like Hamilton will and I’m dinging him a point because I’m skeptical about the future of any Miami Marlins lineup. A Shane Victorino comparison seems to be unfair to Yelich, who flashes much more upside.

Yelich will be a fine all around performer and a potential $25 fantasy earner, but this one isn’t even close. Hamilton has 100+ stolen base potential in the majors. Hamilton advances, then steals third.

Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins) versus Delino DeShields, Jr. (Houston Astros)

Byron Buxton is the 19-year-old from Georgia, who went second overall, while many thought he should’ve gone first. He has elite speed, but he’ll develop into a fine overall player and ultimately one of the best fantasy players in the game. But the risk is extreme as he has a long, long way to go, but he could be the player Justin Upton or Jason Heyward could be in their primes.

Even though Delino DeShields, Jr. stole 100 bases, he is hidden in Hamilton’s shadow. He has the defensive chops to stick in the middle infield and will even have 10 home run pop, but there is still a little work to do in his game, but he could have a career that matches his father.

I think Dynasty League owners will be rewarded with a potential top-3 second baseman in DeShields, granted they are willing to wait a couple more years. But if you are going to wait that long, you may as well wait another year on Buxton, who could become a top 10 overall player. Buxton advances.

Hit Tool

Oscar Tavares (St. Louis Cardinals) versus Jurickson Profar (Texas Rangers)

Oscar Taveras has the swing of man. It’s a masculine man’s swing that borders on the violent. So how does did he maintain a measly 10.5% strikeout rate? It was his freakish bat control that allows him to take monster hacks while still barreling every ball. He’ll be a future batting champ, a future home run champ, and quite possibly the future major of St. Louis because he’ll be a popular man in that town for years to come. He’s got a Bryce Harper swing with Vlad Guerrero bat control.

Jurickson Profar has as high a floor as any of these 16 guys. He’s going to be great, the only question is when he’ll get his opportunity. He’ll stick at a premium middle infield position which is great for fantasy owners, and while he might not immediately be the 20/20 guy all know he’ll be, he’ll still give fantasy value at age 20. He could have seasons that match the best from Derek Jeter.

In the closest matchup yet, we have two guys who should be solid fantasy contributors for years to come. While it was hard to pass up the middle infield eligibility of Profar, Tavares is coming off a Triple A line of .321 / .380 / .572 with 270 total bases. Tavares advances in a nail-biter.

Jorge Soler (Chicago Cubs) versus Javier Baez (Chicago Cubs)

There has been a lack of at bats with Jorge Soler, which means there are lots of questions marks before he reaches the Majors. But nearly everyone is giddy about his upside and potential to help in all 5 fantasy categories. If he takes the next step, he could be a $35, top 5 fantasy player in 2015, or he could falter under higher level pitching and drop right out of this bracket. Patient dynasty owners could be rewarded with Yoenis Cespedes type production.

I intentionally matched Cubbie versus Cubbie by putting Javier Baez in this spot. While Soler will be manning the outfield, Baez is a shortstop with tons of upside who could also contribute in all 5 fantasy categories. He’s a lighting bolt with wicked bat speed. The only problem is that he swings at everything. Everyone Cubs fan is looking for the next Ernie Banks. You don’t want to put that pressure on a young prospect, but he’s got All-Star potential.

Both of these guys have work to do and will be stashed in Dynasty Leagues for a couple more seasons. While I think that both ultimate become strong fantasy contributors across the board, Baez has shown signs of refining his approach which could make him a top 5 fantasy pick for years to come. Baez advances.

 

Ace Potential

Gerrit Cole (Pittsburg Pirates) versus Dylan Bundy (Baltimore Orioles)

Gerritt Cole has outstanding stuff and there isn’t much out standing that will prevent him from showing it off soon in the Majors. He has a fastball that can touch triple digits, a plus changeup, and a knockout slider, three pitches that will allow him to dominate. He has Clayton Kershaw upside.

I’ve already drafted Dylan Bundy in one of my Dynasty Leagues and his owners will get a chance to see what he can do later this season. He’s wisely considered the best pitching prospect in the game today and should stick in the Majors at age 20 due to his 5 pitch arsenal. He’s certain to be a solid pitc her for years, maybe even surpassing the career of Roy Oswalt.

While Bundy’s stuff has played better and shown to be more proven, I’m a sucker for National League pitchers. In an upset, Cole advances.

Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins) versus Taijuan Walker (Seattle Mariners)

Jose Fernandez isn’t the most well known on this list, but he has had eye popping numbers in the low minors as just a teenager. He has mid-90′s heat with a sweet looking curve. He’s a big, think-bodied kid that could turn into a #1 workhorse, which brings up the inevitable CC Sabathia comparisons.

Taijuan Walker pitched at Double A against hitters much older than him, which gave him the label of a gamer. He’s also a fantastic athlete and hits mid-90′s with ease.  His curveball and cutter aren’t polished and that raises the risk level and insures he probably won’t be seen until 2014. But he’s got incredible upside, works hard, and has been likened to Dwight Gooden.

While it’s close and Fernandez’s workhorse potential gives him a boost, it’s to hard to pass on the potential of Walker. Stash him in Dynasty Leagues for 3 more seasons and you may be holding one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball. Walker advances. Continue Reading…

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Who’d you rather: Alex Gordon or Austin Jackson

Will Meadows —  March 18, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

One player is coming off of a World Series appearance, while the other is trying to help his team challenge for a division title for the first time in over two decades.

At first glance you might think that Alex Gordon and Austin Jackson have very little in common. You may be right when you consider their respective team’s potential. When it comes down to comparing the two players side-by-side, “potential” is their common denominator.

 

Average

Two seasons ago Alex Gordon posted a career best .303 batting average. He also had career bests across the board in homers, RBI, runs and stolen bases. The 29 year-old followed his career best up with a .292 average last year. He hit .310 in the second half of last season after a shaky start. His average remained a constant with his excellent fly ball to ground ball ratio and increasing walk rate.

So far during the month of March he has led all hitters with a .520 average going 13-for-25 during spring training. He had a hot start like this two seasons ago, which led to his breakout season. You can expect an average between .292 and .305 with a maturing lineup around him.

When Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera hit behind you expect to see a lot of good pitches to hit. In 2012, Austin Jackson set the table for the sluggers and the rest of the Detroit Tigers, ending the season with an even .300 average.

The 2012 season saw him achieve career highs across the board just as Alex Gordon did two years ago. Austin has age on his side he just turned 26 years old. With age comes responsibility and he has proven an adept lead-off man for the American League Central defending champion Detroit Tigers. I expect his average to drop because of a lucky BABIP of .370 from last year.

Expect Austin to hit around .285 with yet another asset, Torii Hunter, being acquired to hit in the number two spot behind him.

Advantage: Alex Gordon

 

Runs

Alex Gordon’s run production only dropped by eight runs last year from his career high of 103 in 2011. He proved to me last year that he will be a consistent run producer hitting third in the Kansas City Royals lineup.

What make his run production of 93 runs scored last year so remarkable is the players hitting behind him with the exception of Billy Butler had average to wretched production. Mike Moustakas was mediocre in his no walk, no contact, strikeout over one hundred times campaign of 2012. We will not even get into the Eric Hosmer’s abomination of a season had, drying up run production for Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. In fact, I hope Alex Gordon bought Billy Butler a new sweater for Christmas because he has him to thank for the majority of those 93 runs scored.

The good news is that I expect a major contact rate improvement for Mike Moustakas and a bounce back year for Eric Hosmer. It can’t get any worse for Hosmer. With Billy Butler providing his usual run producing ways, Alex Gordon will score around 100 runs this season.

This season will be the beginning of Austin Jackson hitting his prime run producing years. With the addition of Torii Hunter and the subtraction

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

of Quintin Berry hitting behind him, Austin will see an uptick in run production from his 103 runs scored from last year.

The Tigers juggernaut will keep rolling this season as Austin Jackson approaches 110+ runs for the season. He will be a dark horse candidate to lead the American League in runs scored. Actually, barring injury, I don’t see Austin Jackson not being in the conversation at season’s end.

Advantage: Austin Jackson

 

Home Runs

Which Alex Gordon are we going to get this year? Will it be the Alex Gordon who hits 14 homeruns as he did last year, or will he approach 25 homers as he did two years ago?

His HR/FB ratio of 8% will need to improve for him to approach 20+ homers for this season. What does help is his XBH/HR ratio, which is approaching elite levels. With Billy Butler and the maturation of the young hitters around him, it won’t take much for Alex Gordon to approach 25 home runs. He will have to lift more balls in the air while remaining selective but if he gets hot in the early going, there is no reason he can’t approach these numbers.

Let’s take into consideration that Austin Jackson is a lead off man, and no one is confusing him for Rickey Henderson. The Tigers aren’t asking him to swing for the fences.

With that being said, Austin Jackson has some pop in his bat. Even so, he will be focused on setting the table for the sluggers that come after him while taking advantage if a pitcher makes a mistake. Austin Jackson will hit between 15 – 18 home runs with a peak of 20 in a career year.

Advantage: Alex Gordon

 

Runs Batted In

It is very simple to figure out a projection for RBI’s for Alex Gordon. He will either drive in 70 or 90 depending on the on base skills of those in front of him and his up and down contact rate.

He drove in 72 last year and 87 the season before. He is starting to develop a pattern of big numbers in odd numbered years and average numbers in even numbered years. As luck would have it we are in an odd numbered year. What does that tell us? Absolutely nothing.

Since the Royals did very little to improve the top of their line up, I think Alex will fall somewhere in the middle around 80 RBI’s for the year. He will have to approach career numbers for him to approach 90 RBI’s and above.

Austin Jackson posted a career high 66 RBI’s last season. He is in a different league when going head-to-head with Alex Gordon in the runs batted in department. In a great year he could approach 75 RBI’s. For arguments sake I think he drives in 60 to 65 RBI like he did last season.

Advantage: Alex Gordon

 

Stolen Bases

Alex Gordon is no speedster on the base paths, garnering 10 stolen bases last year with a career high of 17 stolen bases in 2011. However, he is one of the savviest base runners in the American League. I don’t see him running a lot this year, finishing off at 8 to 12 stolen bases with a little effort.

Just like Austin Jackson being no match for Alex Gordon in RBI, Alex Gordon is no match for Austin Jackson in the stolen base department.

Having just turned 26 year’s-old, Austin Jackson has plenty of speed left to swipe upwards of 20 to 25 stolen bases this year. You will see him run more with a much better contact and hit and run partner in Torii Hunter behind him.

He is not in an elite class of speed like a Michael Bourn or the emerging Ben Revere but he can crank up the volume when the opportunities present themselves.

Advantage: Austin Jackson

 

Conclusion

It really depends on what kind of player you are looking for when choosing between Alex Gordon and Austin Jackson. If you want speed and a large amount of runs you choose Jackson. If you want power production with some risk but upside, you choose Alex Gordon.

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Stressed over your First Round pick? You can relax.

Clave Jones —  March 18, 2013 — 2 Comments
Matt Kemp was a trendy #1 overall selection last year, but it was actually Mike Trout who returned fantasy best value. Photo courtesy of Sam Galvez.

Matt Kemp was a trendy #1 overall selection last year, but it was actually Mike Trout who returned fantasy best value. Photo courtesy of Sam Galvez.

My grammie would always say, “If I’ve heard that once, I’ve heard that a 100 times.” And you’re going to trust the truth of something you’ve heard a hundred times, am I right?

Well, I’ve heard a hundred times that fantasy baseball leagues are won or lost in the first round. But that’s nonsense.

Don’t get me wrong, you don’t want to intentionally tank your first round pick by drafting Yunel Escobar, but there isn’t reason to lose sleep over the pick either. I drafted Troy Tulowitzski in the first round last year and went on to win my very competitive league. You grab a quick substitute that helps you in a category that’s close, you maybe make a quick trade, you speculate on who may be on the upswing, you move a guy or two around, and – voila! – you’re back in the saddle. I’m not saying it’s fun to piece together a position when you lose someone that you’re expecting to be such a big cog, but it’s a fact of fantasy baseball that it can be done.

And you may need to do it more than you realize. Take this sample 1st Round from 2012:

Overall Pick Player
1 Albert Pujols, LAA, 1B
2 Miguel Cabrera, Det, 1B
3 Matt Kemp, LAD, OF
4 Jose Bautista, Tor, 3B, OF
5 Troy Tulowitzki, Col, SS
6 Ryan Braun, Mil, OF
7 Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos, OF
8 Justin Upton, Ari, OF
9 Robinson Cano, NYY, 2B
10 Joey Votto, Cin, 1B
11 Adrian Gonzalez, Bos, 1B
12 Ian Kinsler, Tex, 2B

Some might pick nits on a player here and there, but considering this was a real National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft, we can all agree that’s it’s pretty a pretty fair representation.

And if you look closely you’ll see that only Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, and Robinson Cano returned true first round value, a whopping 25% success rate. A shocking number placed into context of all the fantasy baseball writing that tells you the sole function of your first round pick is to minimize risk. Do fantasy baseball drafters simply love risky picks or are we simply in a risky business?

Taking this further, 7 years of research has shown that we get our first round selections correct roughly only 40% of the time, which isn’t surprising because between 44% and 51% of MLB players lose time due to injuries, suspensions, demotions, etc. over the course of a season. It’s a tough business folks.

A few other fun tidbits the research has shown:

  • Over the last decade or so, two thirds of Top 15 players weren’t in the Top 15 the next year. 
  • As stated above, there is a great deal of turnover in the first round, year-over-year.
  • First time first rounders only repeat 15% of the time.
  • Even established superstars are not guaranteed to repeat.

Wow, that’s all very depressing and started by saying you could relax over your first round pick!

Just do your homework, make a reasoned choice, but know that there are no guarantees. Nash gave a good primer on this year’s first round and it won’t be free of risk either. Give it a read and peek at our Draft Kit where share a little risk assessment tool.

But relax. A $40 player can slam into a wall like a $4 player, but is ten times harder to replace. But replace him you can. I wrote this to let you know that – YES – your first rounder is important, but don’t let it tie you in knots. Things don’t always pan out the way you’d hope, but that won’t mean your season is lost.

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Finding Outfield Value

Eric Pleiss —  March 11, 2013 — Leave a comment
Adam Jones is Baltimore's fantasy star. Photo by Keith Allison.

Adam Jones is Baltimore’s fantasy star. Photo by Keith Allison.

At the tail end of last week I recorded a fantasy baseball podcast segment for The Phil Naessens Show.  We talked exclusively about outfielders: who are the elite players, is this guy better than this guy, who might rebound or fall, etc.  It was mostly a fly-by look at fantasy outfielders.  Maybe not the kind of hardcore insight frequent Crackerjack readers might be looking for, but if you are just looking for some basic outfield pointers, give it a listen.

After I finished podcasting with Phil I could not get outfielders off of my brain.  With 90 outfielders starting in Major League Baseball on any given day, it should not be hard to find value at the back end of this 90 players.  Certainly there are going to be $1 players and players taken in the 15th round that turn out to be regular contributors for winning ball clubs.  But, I wondered, how can I find value at the top of that list, especially in the top 20 players?  So I pulled out the Draft Kit and got to work.

The draft kit lists two players topping the $40 threshold, and six more players valued above $30.  It will be hard for any of these eight players to perform so well that they will be providing value above and beyond their purchase price.  With Ryan Braun and Mike Trout, the $40 players, they’re likely going 1-2 in a regular draft, and the other six (Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton) are all likely to be gone before you make your third pick, and you won’t find a lot of surplus value in the first two rounds of a draft, you have to just be hoping that the player you draft lives up to his expectations.

So that leaves twelve more players on the Top 20 list from the Draft Kit.  That’s everyone between Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon.  What I want to find in this range is a player that can still fill all five of the standard scoring categories (Runs, Home Runs, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, and Batting Average).  If I can find a five category player hanging around after the first few rounds, and for around $25, I feel pretty good.

For the purposes of this exercise, let’s say that 85 R, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 12 SB, and a .270 AVG are the minimums for each scoring category.  That takes out Jason Heyward (AVG), Jose Bautista (SB, AVG), Bryce Harper (RBI), Matt Holliday (SB), Jay Bruce (SB, AVG), Curtis Granderson (SB, AVG), Jacoby Ellsbury (RBI), Austin Jackson (RBI), Shin-Soo Choo (RBI), and Alex Gordon (RBI).  Leaving only Adam Jones.

Our Draft Kit projects a healthy 2013 season for Adam Jones (93 R, 26 HR, 85 RBI, 16 SB, 271 AVG), meaning that not only do the Crackerjack minds believe that Jones will continue his run of good health (149+ games played last three seasons) but also that the increased power and stolen base totals he put up with a year ago are more indicative of his true talent rather than blips on the radar.

The runs and RBIs might be a little high for my tastes for two reasons.  First, Jones played 162 games last year so all of his counting stats are artificially inflated by his 697 plate appearances (10th best in MLB last year) and I do not expect him to be on the field that much in 2013.  Second, and more importantly, I do not believe that the Orioles did enough this winter to make their team any better.  In fact, the 2013 Orioles are probably a little worse just from the improvements made by the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox (the Rays are essentially the same team, and despite the early injuries from the Yankees, they should be the Yankees everyone expects by the middle of June).

But even if you ding Jones a little bit with the runs and RBIs he’s still a five category player, and I think you can grab him for about $25 in an auction draft, or at the tail end of the 3rd, beginning of the fourth round in most fantasy drafts.

Happy hunting.

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Personalized Pre-Draft Fantasy Rankings

Eric Pleiss —  February 20, 2013 — Leave a comment
Willingham gets a bump in OBP leagues. Photo by Ben CK.

Willingham gets a bump in OBP leagues. Photo by Ben CK.

A quick Google search for Fantasy Baseball Rankings returns 21 million results.  There is one from Yahoo! and FantasyPros, ESPN, Rotoworld, even one from the good folks here at Crackerjacks.  Everyone has one and there are draft rankings everywhere.  So how do you decided which one is best for you, and what do you do with it?

You need to understand that Draft Rankings is that they are not one-size-fits all.  Each list is composed by some combination of either last year’s fantasy performance, pre-season projections for 2013, and the authors gut-feeling about particular players.  Generally all these factors got thrown into a pot, mixed around, and then the author will rank the players accordingly.  These lists are usually comprised with a standard 5×5 league in mind, so if your league has different or additional scoring categories, you’ll need to adjust accordingly.

Also, keep in mind, especially if you are using the draft ranking provided by the host of your fantasy league, that all of your competitors have easy access to the exact same list, so if you are a slave to the pre-draft rankings you will be predictable and the savvier GMs in your league will use that to your detriment.

So what can you do?  Make your own list.

Find a couple of rankings that you feel strongly about and merge them together, making adjustments where needed to adapt the rankings to your specific league conditions.  Roster restrictions, scoring categories, league types and draft types will all affect the value of players going into your draft.  If your league lumps all three outfield positions into one position, then there are suddenly three-times as many outfielders in the draft pool than there are players in any other position (besides pitchers).  In those types of leagues, catchers, shortstops and second basement become more valuable because teams generally only have one regular player at each of those positions, so positional scarcity becomes an issue.  In that case, you would want to give middle infielders a bump up in your draft rankings.

Similarly, if your league uses On-Base Percentage (OBP) instead of batting average (Avg) as a scoring category, suddenly guys like Josh Willingham become more valuable as the .366 OBP he sported last year was well above league average, while his batting average, .260, was below average.

Once you’ve finished ranking and shuffling players on your list, I would recommend that you then make one more list.  This list will have all of the players broken down into position groups and ranked within that group.  That way you have an idea, as the draft goes on, how many of the top players in those areas are still available, and you will be able to quickly spot any runs on a particular position that could quickly damage your ability to have a quality producer.

If you are feeling particularly adventurous, you might want to enhance your position player lists by grouping the players into tiers.  I will generally put players into three tiers; Elite, All-Star, Everybody Else.  The idea here is that the value you gain from a player in a specific tier is not drastically different from any other player in that tier.

Maybe you have two outfielders in your elite category (Ryan Braun and Mike Trout), but then you have six more players listed as All-Stars (Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, Josh Hamilton and Carlos Gonzalez).  There are certainly other talented outfielders, but as you get deeper into the draft, you will need to be focused on building a well balanced team, so a players particular skillset will become more valuable than where they show up on your ranking sheet, and they will generally be at least one level below the elite and all-star players you have already identified.

So get out there, have fun with some pre-draft Fantasy Rankings, go wild and rank all 750 players you think might make opening day rosters, just make sure the list you use is your own.

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2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Clave Jones —  February 17, 2013 — Leave a comment

Here it is, our 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit, available as a FREE download.

Here’s what you’ll get:

  • Position-by-position rankings, including top 75 outfielders and starting pitchers.
  • Full player projections for standard 5×5 stats, plus a few extra for those leagues that dig a little deeper.
  • Top 251 rankings.
  • Tiers, sleepers, and health risk players.
  • Extra draft worksheets.
  • Formatted to be easy to read, print, and mark all over.
  • Risk / Reward Graphing
  • Over 25 pages, completely free!

Before you download, I’ll give you a few links if you’d like to read about how it was prepared. (How to… make projections, choose rankings, choose projections.)

I also want to tell you our philosophy concerning Draft Kits. I typically draft with a single sheet of paper, but I realize most people have at least a few sheets of paper with them or perhaps create their own spreadsheet(s). But if you take a magazine with you to your draft you aren’t prepared. If you take a 200 page draft kit to your draft you aren’t prepared. (Here’s how to tell if you are prepared to draft.) If you can step into your draft with a clear strategy and a simple cheat sheet you’ll own the draft room.

Therefore, our draft kit is intentionally lean. It’s rankings, projections, some risk/reward graphing, and a few handy worksheets to help you prepare. It’s designed to be easy to read and quick to print. We’ve already done our team previews and we have over 500 posts of strategy, advice, and analysis and in the next few weeks we’ll be releasing tons of new player profile and strategy posts. That’s already covered.2013 Crackerjack Draft Kit

In other words, we didn’t simply repackage our website and call it a draft kit. Everyone knows how to search a website and click through to categories that interest them. This website is loaded with strategy to make you a better fantasy baseball player. Peek around and stay a while. There is a search bar to the right and in the footer.

I used last year’s kit for my own drafts and I won all three leagues I participated in. We stand behind this year’s as well.

 

It’s 100% free, no strings attached. If you like it and have enjoyed reading our site we simply ask that you give a a quick follow, like, or +1. If you love us, please do all three (we have widgets to the right to make it simple). We realize it’s really needy to be begging for a like, but we simply want to extend our reach and audience. You guys helping us out on social media is a big help in that, so thank you.

Thanks for reading Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks. We appreciate it! We love fantasy baseball as you do and we’ll keep cranking out the posts, hoping that we’re offering practical advice to help folks win their fantasy baseball championships. This website is our bread and butter, so please keep coming back, and we hope that you’ll give us some feedback on this year’s kit.

 

CLICK HERE for the draft kit and best of luck in all your 2013 fantasy baseball leagues!

 

 

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Grading on the Curve

Clave Jones —  February 15, 2013 — Leave a comment

Scouting Curve
I’m a fan of the Bell Curve because it can be used to measure almost anything. If you aren’t familiar, it’s a bell-shaped curve that tapers at both ends, illustrating the idea that under normal distribution people cluster toward the center (average), then are infrequent toward the edges (far above or below average).

You may not know that scouts grade on a curve as well, using a scale between 20 and 80. When they are out scouting a player they assign each tool a number from 20 (Horrible. Think Ben Revere‘s arm or Jim Thome‘s speed.) to 80 (Elite. Think Giancarlo Stanton‘s power or Billy Hamilton‘s speed.), with 50 representing the Major League average. It’s thought that Branch Rickey invented it way back when.

Scouts are so versed in this scale that they can toss numbers around among themselves while really sharing a picture of a player’s skillset. I’ve begun to do this in my head as I’m “scouting” fantasy baseball players, but it’s important that you really understand the scale so that you properly weight players.

Look at the image above. W’eve established that 50 is average. One standard deviation above and below represents approximately 68% of players. So almost 7 out of 10 players should have their skills fall between 40 and 60, which is important to baseline so you aren’t indiscriminately tossing around “grades” too high or too low. 95% of players fall between 30 and 70. Only he players who are truly, truly horrible (bottom 2%) with a particular skillset should be graded in the 20′s. Likewise, only the truly, truly elite (top 2%) should get a grade between 70-80. (Note: You can also chop off the zeroes and just scale from 2-8.)

  • 20 = Horrible
  • 30 = Well below average
  • 40 = Just below average
  • 50 = Average Major League regular
  • 60 = Above average
  • 70 = All-Star
  • 80 = Elite, Kate Upton

As I said, I do this with fantasy players and it’s pretty fun and remarkably helpful once you’ve had a little practice so you can grade on auto pilot. I’ll also scale other things. I just had sloppy joes and I can give them a solid 50, but the dessert pizza I had afterward gets a comfortable 70. But back to fantasy baseball. Giancarlo grades an 80 power, 50 average, 65 for RBI, and 35 in terms of speed. Mike Trout grades 65 power, 80 speed, 80 in terms of run scoring, but just a 50 with RBI, simply because he bats leadoff.

But that’s just for stats and doesn’t really stretch the utility of this tool. It can also be used to scale confidence in a couple ways. Kris Medlen probably pulls down just a 35 in terms of confidence because he doesn’t have that many innings pitched to build a reputation that we can trust him. A player like Edwin Encarnacion grades a similar 35 in terms of confidence, but it’s because his skills took a huge jump last season. The moral of that lesson would be to not draft a team of players that all grade low on your confidence scale.

We’re just starting to have fun with this and we haven’t even talked about grading a player’s ceiling / floor (potential), but I want to tell you about something we’re 2013 Crackerjack Draft Kitdoing for our draft kit this year. We’re going to grade for risk / reward.

We’ll grade player for risk. That is, does he have an injury history, is it a small sample size, is he getting up in age, or has he simply shown erratic skills in the past? Those we consider dead average get a 50 risk. While no one can guess when a broken leg will strike, they should be pretty darned dependable. Some we’ll score low risk because they’re as steady as they come, while others will score high risk and you won’t want many of those on your team.

We couple that with reward. Some players offer a higher shot at reward. If a player offers high reward with low risk, you can count on paying more for them at the auction table. Inversely, a player who offers low reward, but high risk should be avoided like the plague.

Conclusion

I share this to give you another way to judge players. It’s versatile in that you can grade skills, abilities, risk, potential, or sloppy joes using it. But despite it’s versatility, it all uses a common scale that is easy to get your mind around.

Second, I share this as a way to give you a sneak peek at a tool we’ll use in the draft kit that gives a nod to the world of real life Major League scouts, who aren’t all the stiff-necked luddites portrayed in the Moneyball movie.

Finally, I share this because it’s fun to grade this way. With a little use it grows to offer remarkable utility. Now go practice on your sloppy joes.

 

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10 Spot Start Pitchers Ready for Jump to Next Level

Michael Dixon —  February 6, 2013 — Leave a comment
Niese straddles being a spot starter and taking the next step forward. Photo courtesy of flickr.

Niese straddles being a spot starter and taking the next step forward. Photo courtesy of flickr.

This isn’t the first or last time you’ll hear this from me, but drafting the game’s elite pitchers early in a fantasy baseball draft is a real risk. They only play once every five games, so even a true ace like Justin Verlander has his effectiveness limited.

Therefore, I rely a lot on guys for spot starts, or spurts. All of these players spent a lot of 2012 on the fantasy baseball waiver wire and naturally, were available for streaming, or for a more protracted period of time during hot streaks. I’m looking for that to change in 2013, and for the better. I’m expecting these pitchers to make a transition from temporary fantasy fix, to long term fixtures for your fantasy baseball team in 2013. Let’s take a look.

 

  • Homer Bailey – Cincinnati Reds

What? A pitcher named Homer? How could this be?

Sorry, I know that that joke has been told a lot since Homer Bailey came into the league in 2007, but I just wanted to try it out to see if there was some prize for being the millionth person to tell the joke. Turns out there’s not, so now let’s get down to business.

Of all of Bailey’s stats, the one that really jumps out at me is his K:BB ratio (this won’t be the last time you hear that). When you pitch at the Great American Ballpark, you have to be ready to allow some home runs. But if those home runs come with nobody on base, they don’t hurt you that much. That’s how Bailey ranked in the top (or bottom) 20 in home runs allowed in 2012, but still finished the season with a nice 3.68 ERA.

The other part of that ratio are the strikeouts, and 168 in 208 innings will give you a nice start towards being competitive in strikeouts. Put all of this in with being a part of a good team that wins a lot of games, and it’s hard to see Bailey being a drain in any fantasy category.

Bailey has been around for a long time, so it’s hard to remember that he’ll only be 27 in May. Look for a good 2013 campaign from the Cincinnati right-hander.

 

  • Wade Davis – Kansas City Royals

Being up front here, the biggest reservation I have including Wade Davis on this list is that he had by far his best year as a professional in 2012, only as a reliever. The Royals do have some pitching depth, so it’s not inconceivable that he’ll end up in the bullpen in 2013. But I included him here for a few reasons.

  1. As of this moment, he’s in the Kansas City starting rotation, at least according to their website’s depth chart.
  2. If by chance he does get bumped to the bullpen and comes anywhere close to his 2012 output, you have a very valuable fantasy player, even from the bullpen.

Now, Davis’ BB:9 ratio in 2012 didn’t really stand out against the rest of his career, but his strikeout ratio was phenomenal. Some of this comes from pitching out of the bullpen, but that’s also attributed to learning how to make hitter’s bats miss the ball. Davis was never a bat starter, but it was easy to get moved to the bullpen in the Tampa rotation. Now, he’s not in that spot anymore and used a year in the bullpen to better himself. Davis’ 2013 outlook is very bright.

 

  • Scott Diamond – Minnesota Twins

Clave doesn’t think the Twins pitching staff is a real Major League rotation. I can’t say that I completely disagree, but I am willing to call Scott Diamond the exception to that.

In a lot of ways, Diamond’s 2012 was the polar opposite of what Wade Davis did. Davis walked a lot of guys, but figured out how to strike hitters out, coming in at over 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamond doesn’t really strike anyone out, but he doesn’t walk anyone either. As a matter of fact, he led the league in walks per nine innings in 2012, and did so over 173 innings.Countdown 13 Graphic

Now, I won’t tell you that Minnesota has an explosive offense, but they’re not bad either. In 2012, they supported Diamond well enough for him to win 12 games with a 3.54 ERA. Diamond doesn’t walk anyone and has the stuff to allow soft contact, so that kind of ERA should be replicated. If that happens, look for similar wins in 2013 from the man who should be the No. 1 starter in Minnesota.

 

  • Jason Hammel – Baltimore Orioles

Before I get into Jason Hammel specifically, I’d like to suggest that think about coupling Hammel and Diamond together on your fantasy team. They achieve similar ERA and WHIP totals, but do so in very different ways. Look at what they would have brought your team in 2012.

  IP H BB ER W-L K ERA WHIP
Diamond/Hammel 291 288 73 113 20-15 203 3.49 1.24

Now that that’s out of the way, Hammel really showed how good he could be when pitching away from Coors Field. That’s not to say that Camden Yards is a pitcher’s palace, but it is against Coors Field.

He does walk a lot of guys, but makes up for it but striking out nearly a hitter an inning. He gets into jams, but knows how to get out of them as well. Again, the home runs aren’t what makes Coors Field tough. It’s the simplicity of getting other hits, along with the homers. In 2012, fewer “other” hits dropped in against Hammel, which dropped his ERA down to a respectable level. Again, homers aren’t the problem. Homers with men on base are.

In our American League East previews, we predicted the Orioles to finish in third place, beating the Yankees. That got a little bit of backlash, but let me clarify a few things. One, we expect the Orioles and Yankees to battle for third place. Two, we expect both teams to be above .500. What that means is that Hammel should get some good run support. If he stays healthy and gets between 170-200 innings, look for a solid year.

 

  • Hisashi Iwakuma – Seattle Mariners

First, let’s take a look at the total numbers that Hisashi Iwakuma put up in 2012.

125.1 innings pitched, 9 wins, two saves, 101 strikeouts, 3.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. 

Pretty good, but it gets better. You probably noticed two saves in that stat-line. From April-June, Iwakuma was a reliever. When July began, he began his time as a starter for the Mariners. Look at what he did acting solely as a starter.

95 innings pitched, 8 wins, 78 strikeouts, 2.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP. 

No saves, unfortunately, but that’s about half a season as a starter. Multiply that by two and your looking at a very strong fantasy pitcher. When the month of July began, Iwakuma had a season 4.75 ERA, and needed a pretty good June to get to that mark. Again, he finished the year with a 3.16 ERA. He is much better as a starting pitcher and as I detailed in my Mariners preview, I am expecting good things from him this year.

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11 Pitchers You Shouldn’t Touch with a 60’6 Pole

Michael Dixon —  February 5, 2013 — 2 Comments
Zito is just one big name pitcher who doesn't belong on your fantasy team. Photo courtesy of Flickr User Scott Ableman.

Zito is just one big name pitcher who doesn’t belong on your fantasy team.
Photo courtesy of Flickr user Scott Ableman.

I’m not going to waste anyone’s time by listing a group of bad pitchers that nobody has on their fantasy team anyway. We all know that they have no value.

No, instead we’re going to be taking a look at guys who were owned in a lot of leagues throughout 2012. Maybe it was because of a big name, a great season that stands out as more of an fluke than anything, not realizing how long it’s been since the pitcher was really good, or anything else.

We can’t do anything about 2012 now, but we can use it as a learning experience. Don’t let these guys on your fantasy team in 2013 and if you’re really competitive, don’t let your league rivals see this list.

 

Trevor Cahill – Arizona Diamondbacks

The problem with Trevor Cahill is quite simple, and it’s the problem with a lot of pitchers like him. Ground ball pitchers don’t strike a lot of guys out, but also walk a lot of hitters, as they rely on late movement and deception. A hitter with a good eye can draw a walk with relative ease.

But again, they don’t strike out a lot of guys, meaning they pitch to contact and in turn, allow a lot of hits. A lot of hits and a lot of walks. Hello, ugly WHIP, and Cahill’s career WHIP is 1.31. Now, Cahill can keep his ERA at a decent level, as he induces a lot of double plays.

That’s just the life of a sinker-baller. You can think of Cahill as a current version of what Derek Lowe was in his prime. On a good team, he should bring a fair amount of wins, his ERA will be good, but not great, but that WHIP will kill you. And if you’re in a head-to-head league, be aware that sinker-ballers have a few starts a year where they pitch to contact and those grounders find holes, leading to a very ugly line.

But even in a roto league, the only thing that I can confidently say about Cahill is that he’ll win between 13-16 games. I doubt his ERA breaks 3.70, and his WHIP will be around 1.30. Throw that in with an average strikeout rate, and you’re looking at a pitcher who won’t help your fantasy roster that much.

 

Tommy Hanson – Los Angeles Angels

If it was only a matter of looking at the career numbers of Tommy Hanson, I give him a pass for a bad 2012 season. But there’s one thing that I can’t look past.

The Braves have one of the best bullpens in baseball, especially at the back part of it, with Craig Kimbrel as the anchor. Yet they were willing to part with Hanson for Jordan Walden, who is a very inconsistent back half of the bullpen guy. Why did the Braves make that trade?

Now, I buy money (what would you use to pay for money, anyway?) as the reason. I could buy their starting pitching depth as the reason. But if Hanson was a guy who belonged on your fantasy team, that would mean that the team who traded him felt that he was worth more than a up-and-down player at a position they don’t need any help in.

I’m guessing that the Braves looked at him and his injuries and realized that Walden was the best anyone would give up. It probably boils down to injury concerns, as Hanson has only topped 200 innings once and outside of that season, has never been at 175.

With Hanson on your team, you’re dealing with a guy who will miss too much time. Stay away.

 

Edwin Jackson – Chicago Cubs

I know that Edwin Jackson brings some good. He’s demonstrated no-hit stuff in the past and can strike hitters out at a solid clip, although he doesn’t strike out nearly enough batters for everything else he does. The problem is that he’ll turn 30 years old in September and still pitches like Ricky Vaughn and Nuke LaLoosh rolled into one.

He has a career ERA of 4.40 with a WHIP of 1.438. In 2012, he had a 1.218 WHIP, which is nowhere near good enough to be a career low. Unfortunately, that is his career best.

The other issue I see comes with his surroundings. Wrigley Field is a better hitter’s park than Nationals Park, and the majority of his road games will take place at hitter’s parks, which wasn’t the case in the National League East.

On the same token, the Cubs look to be one of the worst teams in the league this, while 2012 the Nationals had the best record in the game. The Nationals had one of the best bullpens in the league, while the Cubs will likely have one of the worst in the game, again. Despite great surroundings in 2012, he only won 10 games. If he does that in 2013 with the Cubs, he’ll have done a good job. Let someone else deal with the drawbacks.

 

Ubaldo Jimenez – Cleveland Indians

Clave summed up Ubaldo Jimenez perfectly in his Indians Preview.

Don’t draft Ubaldo Jimenez based upon one half of 2010. The time you spent reading this sentence was already more time than you should’ve spent considering him.

I am going to tweak that a little bit. While the second half of 2010 wasn’t very good for Jimenez, it wasn’t bad. But take a look at what he’s done since the beginning of the 2011 season.

  • 365 innings pitched, 19-30 W-L record, 323 strikeouts, 5.03 ERA, 1.504 WHIP.

It wasn’t even a Coors Field problem, as his numbers didn’t get any better after being traded to the Indians.Countdown 13 Graphic

The one thing about Jimenez that draws you in are the strikeouts, but even that rate has steadily decreased since 2011. With the Rockies in 2011, he struck out 8.6 hitters per nine. That number dropped to 8.5 in Cleveland that season. Not a huge drop and easily explainable when you factor in the DH. But in 2012, that number dropped to 7.3, which is way too much of a drop and way too low for someone known for striking guys out.

Clave compared Jimenez to Francisco Liriano (another must avoid pitcher), and the comparison is apt. They are both tempting because of the strikeouts, but will ultimately kill your fantasy team. Stay away.

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