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Simple Sabermetrics: OBP and SLG

Clave Jones —  March 15, 2013 — Leave a comment
Country Breakfast will spend a lot of time on base the this year.

Country Breakfast will spend a lot of time on base the this year.

Sometimes it’s OK to talk about the basics. I’m playing in a league this year with the a few of the writers from ESPN and in lieu of home runs and batting average as scoring categories, both on base percentage and slugging percentage are used. Let’s use this as an opportunity to talk about both on base (OBP) and slugging (SLG) percentages, and how understanding these two statistics can help you build better fantasy baseball teams.

OBP

OBP has been an official MLB statistic since 1984, so it’s odd to talk about it in context of sabermetrics, but again, we’re keeping things simple and you’d be surprised at how many people haven’t really thought about how it’s calculated or why it’s useful to understand. (I promise in the future we’ll graduate up to wOBP, a great statistic focus on linear weights).

On-base percentage is calculated using this formula:

OBP = H + BB + HBP  /  AB + BB + HBP + SF

  • H = Hits
  • BB = Bases on Balls (Walks)
  • HBP = times Hit By a Pitch
  • AB = At bats
  • SF = Sacrifice Flies

This is how often a player gets on base, not counting errors, a fielder’s choice, or anything like that. A team only gets 27 outs in a game, so needless to say, getting on base is vitally important, and the reason that this may be used in your league as a scoring category.

I’m a fan of back of the napkin math, so don’t hesitate to assign a simple constant for sacrifice flies or the number of times a player is hit by a pitch. Sure it’s not exact, but it’s gets you in the ballpark so to speak, and allows you to quickly scan walks to get an idea of the leagues best performers.

The league average has fluctuated over the years. It’s gone from a dead ball .300 to around .340 in our modern area. (The Simple SabermetricsSplendid Splinter Ted Williams is the all time career leader at .482, meaning for his career he made an out barely half the time, while the single season best was Barry Bonds‘ 2004 season, which ended with him having a .610 OBP. Let that sink in.)

So guys adept at getting on base will come in above .340, while your no walk knuckleheads will often time be below .300 even.  Set your fantasy baseline at the .340 league average, knowing that drafting guys above that gives your best chance to compete in the category.

Joey Votto will lead the Majors in 2013 at or around a .420 and it really won’t be close, but Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer and Buster Posey will give you a strong showing. Billy Butler, A.J. Ellis, Shin-Soo Choo, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Santana, Miguel Montero, and Alex Gordon are some lesser names that will also give you a strong showing in the category.

SLG

Slugging is a measure of hitting the crap out of the ball. Slap bunting singles hitters need not apply. It’s calculated by:

SLG = (1 x 1B) + (2 x 2B) + (3 x 3B) + (4 x HR) / AB

Walks are excluded and you can see that a player is rewarded for their total bases. In fact, it can be simplified to TB (total bases) / AB.

Babe Ruth retired with a .6898 slugging percentage. Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig followed with a .6338 and .6324, respectively. The highest active career SLG is Albert Pujols at .6079, which barely nudges Barry Bonds‘ career .6069.

Miguel Cabrera is likely to lead the Majors in 2013, but Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, and Josh Hamilton will be near the top of the leader board. Sneaky good with be Mike Napoli, Ike Davis, Josh Willingham, and Allen Craig. Again, these aren’t singles hitters. They hit the ball over the fences or drive it into the gaps, meaning there is a strong correlation with RBI as well.

On day we’ll talk about ISO, which pulls singles out of the equation and is a even better measure of a player’s true power, but I hope this basis primer was helpful for those who may play in a SLG league.

 

Here are other some other posts in the Simple Sabermetrics series: Command Ratio, FIP

In How To, Projections, Rules , , , , , , , , ,
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Can soccer influence the future of fantasy baseball?

Clave Jones —  January 22, 2013 — Leave a comment

Baseball Games 1992 World Series Toronto vs Atlanta Game 6

I thought I came up with a fantastic new idea for a fantasy baseball league and pitched it to my brother-in-law. He listened, nodded, and said, “Yeah, that’s how the soccer leagues do it over in Europe.” So much for my originality.

But here’s the pitch anyway: what if we could if we could structure a fantasy baseball league where there were greater consequences for winning and losing, and every year felt fresh, yet familiar?

The idea is that we create tiered leagues. In soccer these are called “Premiere” leagues I think (would it kill me to look it up?!?!). It makes more sense in fantasy baseball for it to be tiered as:

  • Major League
  • Triple A
  • Double A

You could take it as low as you wish, but the idea is that each tier would contain 12 teams each. If you think you can only rally 20 owners, then you have two tiers with 10 teams each. Specific numbers don’t matter, the point is that it can scale to fit your needs.

At the end of the season the teams who finish at the bottom drop down and tier while the teams that finish at the top advance up a tier. Talk about having owners engaged until the very end of the season!

Let’s return to our original example and say there are 3 tiers, each with 12 teams. The most movement is in Triple A. The 4 teams that finish at the top move up to the Majors and replace the 4 teams in that league that finish at the bottom. The four teams who finish at the bottom of the pack in Triple A drop down and are replaced by the top four finishers in Double A, who move up. The bottom finishers in Double A just sit there and wallow in their misery, but they’ll get a shot the next season to climb up the ladder.

Again, scale this how you’d like, but the point is that there are real consequences for finishing well. Owners would play to the end. Plus, every year would have a little different flavor while still keeping the basic owners. Every year, guys would be playing together in an individual league, but connected to a larger whole that ups the ante on their finish.

Can I use you for free therapy and share some of my pain with you? NO?  OK, here I go anyway.

My least favorite thing about fantasy baseball is being a league manager. There is a lot of complaining to deal with and it’s impossible for all 12 guys in any league to be happy at the same time.

Why did I share this? Well, I’ve shared this idea – that I’ve come to realize was an idea I’ve apparently stolen from soccer – with several of the guys I play with and each and every one of them said they liked it. Eight guys out of eight – including my borther-in-law – said, “Hmmm. I like that. Sounds like it would be fun.”

Sure, there have been some questions asked like ‘So how would you do keepers?’,  and ‘Is there a way that all guys could communicate across leagues?

Some quick thoughts:

  • Consider creating a group for all the guys to communicate in. Fantasy baseball is social so if a buddy is climbs or drops into a tier where he doesn’t know as many guys, it gives him an opportunity to make new friends, but having a larger group promotes overall camaraderie.
  • League settings would need to be similar across tiers, or else it should be communicated very clearly that to change a tier means that you need to do the research to play by the new rules. That would be fun for some owners, but frustrating for others who don’t handle change well.
  • You could say no keepers and start afresh each year, or you could say that when you drop or climb that you simply adopt that team as your own. Fantasy baseball is a competitive, after all, so this could create a fresh challenge.
  • Some guys aren’t competitive. They’ll be happy as a clam checking their team just once a month, simply floating along in Double A. Most will work like a dog to climb into the Majors and will fight to stay there.
  • First year is tricky: in which league do guys begin? If you’ve played a while, reward previous winners with a seed in the Majors and work down from there. If it’s brand new you can simply draw out of a hat.

Others come to mind, but I’d love to hear your thoughts. This is an opportunity for us to use the comments as a place to ask question, suggest ideas, and tweak through this to see if it could really work. Comment below!

In League Manager, Rules , ,
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Never Forget to Always Remember that Fantasy Baseball Is Not Real

Eric Pleiss —  January 18, 2013 — Leave a comment
Jason Kubel lost in the outfield. Photo courtesy of Lost Town.

Jason Kubel lost in the outfield. Photo courtesy of Lost Town.

This post comes from E. Rolf Pleiss.  E. Rolf currently writes about the Minnesota Twins for Knuckleballs Blog, is the co-host of a weekly Minnesota Twins podcast, Talk to Contact and his Twitter feed is a hilarious must follow.  E. Rolf has been playing fantasy baseball for nearly a decade, but starting in 2012 he started getting serious about his fantasy-swag, and started putting some of the tips he has seen here on Crackerjacks to use. He will be sharing some of his advice for first-time fantasy baseball players with us over the next several weeks.

The name says it all, FANTASY baseball, and yet, year after year, I found myself attempting to run my fantasy baseball team the same way I imagined that real baseball executives were running their own teams.  I was valuing players as if they were playing on my REAL baseball team.  The problem of course, is that fantasy baseball is not real, players have different values in fantasy-land than they do, say playing second base for the Detroit Tigers and hitting third.

I had not yet delved deep enough into the intricacies of fantasy baseball to understand where those differences in value are found, and how to exploit them to my advantage.  Luckily for you, you will not have to spend years forgetting, because I have compiled a list what I think are the top three basics you should always remember about fantasy baseball.

 

Defense Does Not Matter

Fantasy baseball is all about offensive numbers.  Some leagues use traditional stats like RBI, HR, SB and some use more advanced Sabermetric numbers like wRC+, wOBA, and wRAA.  But whichever type of league you are in, what players do with a glove in their hand is largely irrelevant, and until there is a surefire way to measure defensive ability, it will continue to be a non-factor in fantasy baseball.

So while Peter Bourjos might be a really fun player to watch, his offensive numbers (.247/.301/.402 career triple slash) let you know that you should not bother having him on your team except or for steals only.  Conversely, a guy like Jason Kubel who can’t play a lick of defense, has MORE value in fantasy baseball because his 30 home runs are still 10th in the NL, no matter how many runs he costs his team waving at fly balls in the outfield.

 

Playing Time Matters

Most fantasy baseball leagues will establish some maximum number of innings played/pitched for each position on your fantasy roster.  These totals usually mirror some number of appearances that could be reasonably expected from a Major League everyday player, or in the case of pitchers, what could be expected from a full time starter or reliever.

In real baseball, a team like the Los Angeles Angles are willing to tie up a lot of money in a guy like Josh Hamilton who might take off a game a week.  They can justify that loss of playing time because they get enough value from him in the 130 games does play, to more than make up for the 32 games he takes off.  Plus, it is not like they are getting zero value when Hamilton is not in the lineup because someone else takes his spot in the order.

In fantasy baseball, unless you are monitoring your team everyday, when Hamilton has a day off, so do you.  You earn no stats.  Because often times fantasy baseball is based on counting stats (hits, RBIs, stolen bases, etc) you lose an opportunity to pad those stats, and if you are in a league that has no bench spots, or requires you to set your lineup at the start of each week, you wave goodbye to any chance at reclaiming those missed games.  If your league allows you to stream pitchers, then this will not be as big of an issue, as you can grab lots of extra innings by moving guys in and out of your roster, but again, any time you are not at least approaching those maximum limits, you are wasting opportunity.

 

Your Favorite Player is Worse and More Expensive than you Expected

If you are going to be successful in fantasy baseball, just as in real baseball, you need to build the core of your team around a strong draft.  Sure, you are going to make a lot of great trades and sneaky waiver wire pick ups, but you need to have a solid core of players to help you start the season strong.  That means that when it is your turn to draft you need to throw emotion out of the equation.

Derek Jeter might lead the MLB in jersey sales, and could be the most iconic player in baseball, but you have no business drafting him as your starting shortstop. Sure, he might have another surprise rebound season, but the guy is 38 years old and more likely to be the player he was in 2010.  Even if he does have another solid year, you’ll likely have to overpay for him on draft night, not only costing you draft dollars, but also a lost opportunity to draft a younger player or a player with higher upside.

Do your research before draft night and then trust it.  Forget Jersey sales and find a Jeter substitute for far less. Last year his OPS of .791 was matched by Ian Desmond and Asdrubal Cabrera, but they had more HR, SB and RBI.  So don’t get stuck on a name, get stuck on finding the same player with a different name.

In Rules, Strategy
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Predicting the Future of Fantasy Baseball

Clave Jones —  December 27, 2012 — 4 Comments
Baseball is a game of traditions, yet change is slowly coming.

Baseball is a game of traditions, yet change is slowly coming.

Playing fantasy baseball means that you’re attempting to predict the future. We’re trying to predict a player’s future performance, are we not? Sure, we are using past performance to predict future results, but c’mon, this is time traveling, future teller stuff we’re playing with!

I say we take prediction to another level. I don’t want to just predict player performance, I want to predict where the game of fantasy baseball itself will go. I’m talking big time prognostication. We’ll do this for play styles, strategies, trends, and everything big and small in between. Here are 5 predictions for the future of fantasy baseball, in no particular order or category:

Future Shift #1: Play styles will change, BIG time. We’ll begin to see more “pick ‘em” type games and less Roto. There’s a sadistic beauty to the long grind that is rotisserie baseball, but it doesn’t capture the daily nature of baseball. Head-to-Head isn’t the answer as it merely tries to jam the oval peg of football into the round hole of baseball.

And we’ve already seen the rapid rise of daily baseball and the not-quite-gambling sites that are all the rage. I’ll buy into the rage as I’ve found the daily nature to be a lot of fun (and it doesn’t hurt that I’ve made some money off the sites). Look for this fantasy baseball trend to continue into the future and push into the mobile sphere as well. (Disclosure: I have the development of some fantasy baseball iOS games in the hopper.)

Future Shift #2: We’ll see more use of stats and more understanding of advanced stats. WHIP was created specifically for the game of fantasy baseball, yet we see it on Major League scoreboards now. Advanced statistics are seeing rapid understanding and adoption for the utility they bring. While 5×5 will continue to be the standard, advanced players are beginning to flock to points leagues like Fangraph’s Ottoneu that are based on linear weights. Is it time for your league to shift from AVG to OBP? Maybe, if you want to be ahead of the curve.

Future Shift #3: ERA and WHIP are trending lower league-wide, which will subtly influence future draft strategies. Sometimes the trends in real baseball heavily influence fantasy baseball. The long ball era is long gone and baseball is seeing more and more pitchers sport healthy ERAs by fantasy baseball standards. Why draft a pitcher early when you can now wait an extra round or two? Plus, those 1.40 WHIP baselines just won’t cut it anymore if you want to win your fantasy baseball league. This will require you to notice trends in real baseball and how you can exploit those in your fantasy baseball league.

Future Shift #4: Norms of positional scarcity will feel uncertain for the foreseeable future. Remember in 2009 when first base was absolutely dominate? Remember in 2011 when we thought third base was the most shallow position? Well, second is thinner than ever but catcher is on the rise. And on and on it goes.

How will position scarcity play in 2013? Well, it looks like the only thing that is certain is that it certainly won’t play the same in 2014. Major League tradition said corner infielders and corner outfielders had to look a certain way, but modern realities are dictating that teams are being more creative in this. The takeaway is that you can’t use last year’s data in regards to this year’s positional scarcity. Positional depth is a shifting thing and it looks like this will continue in the future.

Future Shift #5: We’ll see more rookies make a greater impact. Mike Trout shook up fantasy baseball when at age 20 he was the fantasy baseball’s MVP. Let’s not forget that Bryce Harper was no fantasy slouch at age 19. I think the future of baseball will have players peaking earlier. We’ll say that players will hit “baseball puberty” a little younger, if you want to. It used to be the age 28 season that everyone worked their strategies around, but age 26 is looking closer to the breakout norm, with many players like Andrew McCutchen or Giancarlo Stanton catching stride earlier than that.

Maybe it’s because greater skill and financial resources trickling down into high school game, in addition to better training methods. If 16-year-old kids are being surrounded with coaching and training that was previously only available to 19-year-olds, then you have to think that players could hit their peak a little earlier. Plus, I think something is in America’s water (in more ways than one).

I’m curious to know everyone’s thoughts on this. What are your predictions or the the game of fantasy baseball’s future? Or what do you think about the 5 predictions listed above? Let me know in the comments.

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Fantasy Baseball Trading: Buyer Beware

Nash —  May 21, 2012 — Leave a comment

Ryan Howard & Chase Utley

So, twice this season I have been on the very lucky end of trades. In each case, one of the players I was sending to another team ended up on the DL shortly after.

Trade 1: I traded Chase Utley and Ryan Raburn for Clayton Kershaw.

Trade 2: I traded Jayson Werth and Mike Moustakas for Matt Cain and Zack Cozart

For as long as I have played fantasy baseball, this is just something we’ve chalked up to buyer beware.  However, should there be some statute of limitation in which a player must at least provide some service to the team or else the trade can be voided?!

In the pros players have to pass a physical before a trade is finalized. In the fantasy baseball world we don’t have such a luxury.  In the above case of Trade 2, the other owner accepted the trade. Just two hours later, Werth, a key piece to him, was walked off the field and will now miss 12 weeks.  With Werth hitting the DL this trade really hurts his team as he gave up value to get value.  As we learned from William Ladson (among others), this is a serious injury.

I know that for most of us “all is fair in love and fantasy baseball”, and I can be as cutthroat as the next guy, but something about this struck a chord with me Sunday evening, and really made me question my ethics, if I don’t at least offer some sort of restitution.

It made me also think back to the preseason trade – Utley for Kershaw.  When it was made, some league rivals thought was unbalanced. You can only imagine what people thought Utley ended up on the DL. As it happens, he still hasn’t made his season debut.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that I was responsible for these players hitting the DL, nor is any owner who is the beneficiary of such transactions.  But should there be an unwritten rule, or better yet a written one, to help facilitate fairness in these circumstances?!

Our suggestions:

  1. First, Clave had a VERY good article  about LMs having a constitution, even had a copy of our Tunacorn Constitution.  This is a must for all leagues!
  2. Second, in said document there can be amendments when things such as this arise.  Our document does not have such a clause but at our mid-season rules summit, I will certainly bring it up!
  3. Third don’t lose friends over fantasy baseball, it really isn’t worth it.  If you want to be that guy that just says C’est la vie, there are public leagues that you can join.

PS – You might enjoy following me and all the Crackerjacks on Twitter.

In League Manager, Rules, Trades , , ,
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Fantasy Baseball Trading: How to use the Veto

Michael Dixon —  May 16, 2012 — Leave a comment

If you want to be a successful fantasy baseball player, you have to know the rules of the league you are in. Know what statistics are used, innings minimums/maximums, at-bats minimums/maximums, that kind of stuff. That should go without saying, but too often people are left clueless over things they should know (“I would never have drafted Jay Bruce if I knew that Ks against was used”). Members of a league also need to know how a trade goes from two parties agreeing on it, to actually becoming official.

In the case of some leagues, the LM has all of the power. He’ll see a trade, look over it, and approve it or decline it. This is not something that I recommend, as there’s too much potential for someone to complain about a Conflict of Interest. No, I like the veto system.

First of all, I rarely ever vote a trade down. Normally, I am of the mindset that two people who know the game entered into an agreement, let that be the end of it. I know that both Clave and Nash share that attitude far more often than not.

That attitude is fine 99 percent of the time. Even if a trade ends up being one-sided, it doesn’t mean that it was a bad move when it was made. After all, you can’t predict that someone’s going to get hurt, or go through an awful slump. Every now and again, I will see a trade between two people who are related, or I know to be close friends. If said trade is blatantly one-sided, then I will vote it down, especially if the team getting the better end of the deal is contending while the other isn’t.

But maybe you’re a little more proactive, or up in the air on the issue. I am here to tell you that it’s fine to be that way. There is nothing wrong with looking at a trade and voting it down, even if you don’t think collusion was at play.

It’s also okay to try to get the league’s attention on the matter. Go to the message board and say something like this.

“Hey, I noticed Person A traded Matt Kemp to Person B for J.P. Arencibia. I would really like to know what Person A was thinking, because this looks like a horrible trade to me. Unless I hear something good, I am going to vote it down and think the other owners should do the same.”

That is a perfectly fine post to make. Where league mates get annoyed is if a person makes a post that somehow makes it seem as though this trade was done to screw him over. I guarantee that there isn’t a league with 10 or more people in it that doesn’t include at least one of these guys. If there’s a way to quarantine these kinds of players, I would love to hear it. But if we’re looking at potentially vetoing a trade, don’t be that guy. That’s where people get annoyed and tune you out.

It is also not okay to just decide to vote down any trades that involve someone you don’t really care for, or to accept any moves that involve friends of yours while taking a hard line on others. If I am running a league, the quickest way for someone to get the boot out is to show inconsistent effort, and those kind of actions certainly qualify.

So, if you’re an LM (or a prospective one), this is a blueprint for what to do in the veto period.

  • Give a period of time between 24 and 48 hours between an accepted trade and a processed one for league members to approve it or vote it down.
  • Make it so just under half of the league has to vote it down for the veto to take place. If you’re in a 10-12 league team, four people works well.
  • Don’t ever automatically process a trade. There are two problems with doing this. One is that you don’t give the rest of your league a chance to be heard. Two is that you leave yourself vulnerable to be accused of something, even if you’re not doing anything wrong. Think about it. If the trade involves you, you know about it immediately and will process it then. If the trade involves two other members, it may take you a few hours to process the move, meaning that the players won’t show up on their new teams until the next day. This can make a huge difference, especially in a weekly head to head league. Make the period of time between the trade being accepted and processed consistent and known to the whole league. They have no room to complain when this happens.
  • Don’t veto a trade as an LM unless it’s obvious collusion. Obviously, if we’re talking about someone who is about to quit the league unloading his best players to a friend of his, step in and explain why. Otherwise, your vote shouldn’t count any more than any of the league’s other members.
  • If you’re trying to decide if it’s obvious collusion, talk to a league member that you trust. Better yet, talk to someone not involved in the league in any way, but who knows the game. There’s a difference between obvious collusion (which needs to be struck down by the LM) and a bad trade (which needs to be left open to the rest of the league). If you’re having a hard time placing which group a certain trade belongs in, seek a second or third opinion.
  • Make the period of time known to the league members. Usually, 24 hours is plenty, as it gives everyone a chance to check the league at a reasonable time of day, regardless of time zone. Depending on how active your league us, you may want to move it to 36 or 48 hours. Don’t go beyond 48, the people who are involved in the trade need to know what their team is going to look like. If a person goes two days without voting or making his opinion known, he has no right to complain.
If you are a member of a league.
  • Be consistent. Again, don’t express outrage when a guy you really don’t like ends up on the right end of a bad deal, but endorse another bad deal that benefits a friend, or hurts a person you don’t care for. If you are inconsistent in any way, I suggest you look for other leagues to play in, because you shouldn’t be in that one for a long time.
  • Don’t be afraid to be active, or campaign. If you think a trade is bad, make it known to other people in your league. Maybe it will work, maybe it won’t, but there’s nothing wrong with sticking to your guns.
  • If you decide to let all trades through, keep your mouth shut if a team gets hot as a result of it. At the risk of getting political, this is similar advice I would give someone who doesn’t vote in an election. If you don’t take the time to vote or care, that’s your business and I won’t question you on it. But I also won’t be too patient to listen to you complain that things aren’t going the way you wanted them to. Be active or get out of the way. Either as fine, as long as you stick to the same guns throughout the course of a season.
In How To, League Manager, Rules, Trades , , , ,
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An Exception to the Fantasy Baseball Rules

Nash —  May 8, 2012 — 5 Comments

Washington Nationals right fielder Jayson Werth (28)
I believe that Clave, Dixon and I have made our feelings known about how much more valuable hitters are than pitchers in fantasy baseball.  It is typically very hard for any of us to trade a hitter for a pitcher that aren’t at least a couple tiers away from each other.

However, with anything, there is an exception to the rule.  Recently I have started trading off hitters for pitchers based on 2 simple reasons:

  1. I was super light on pitching and
  2. I was loaded with a surplus of hitters.

In one league I was offered Matt Cain for Mike Moustakas and Jayson Werth.  At first glance I was like, “Man, that’s too much”, then I realized the recently acquired Werth would never play for me as long as Shin Soo Choo and Billy Butler remain healthy.  So he was VERY expendable. Likewise, as soon as Youkilis is back healthy Mous goes to the bench, and if I trade him I just slide Mike Aviles (lord bless his position flexibility) to 3B.

I decided to roll the dice and counter offer asking for Cain and Zack Cozart in return for Werth and Moustakas. Luckily the guy didn’t take much time to ponder before accepting because Werth ended up breaking his wrist hours later. So I feel bad about the bad luck of my trade partner, but how was I to know Werth would be hitting the DL?!

In our Crackerjack Readers League I actually traded Dixon Matt Holliday and Shaun Marcum for Logan Morrison and Matt Cain (do you see a theme here?).  I knew that he couldn’t resist Matt Holliday even for his beloved Matt Cain, and I actually like Lomo a lot as well.  It was a solid “give a little to get a little” trade, confirmed by a text from Clave shortly after it was accepted.

If people were to email me an Ask Nash about these trade for themselves I would hope (and definitely send a follow up email if omitted) that you would explain to me your league structure and your teams rosters so I could understand your team’s needs and surplus areas.

Because on face value I would not have made these trades in the preseason.  However, when you get a full month into the season it is OK to loosen the reigns on some rules/guidelines the fantasy owner should live by.

You certainly do not want to be the guy half way through the season (or later) with a glut of hitters on the bench and 1s across the board in pitching because you were unwilling to come down in your asking price for hitters that are essentially going to waste on your bench.

Sometimes you need to create an exception to your rules in order to put yourself in the best position to win!

In Rules, Strategy, Trades , , , ,
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Know Thine Enemy

Clave Jones —  May 1, 2012 — 3 Comments

I know each MLB team’s starting pitching at least 8 deep. I know the 5 starters, obviously, and I also know who’s next in line if an injury hits (and an injury always hits), plus the top 2-4 prospects that are soon to make the jump to the majors.

I also know at least 5-6 guys in each bullpen; the closer, the next in line, plus several dark horse candidates for saves and holds.

I firmly believe that you need to know pitching if you want to be successful playing fantasy baseball. Anyone can rattle off the overall top 20 superstar pitchers, then subsequently overpay for them in the draft. But the winning edge comes when you can properly evaluate the bargains.

So I get to know the pitchers and I evaluate them by a different criteria that has helped me be competitive. Instead of Wins and ERA, I’m studying pitcher’s ground ball,K/9 and command rates.

As a result I have always been able to find bargain pitchers sitting on the waiver wire and had no competition in picking them up for a spot start. This has given me an edge.

Except for the last couple seasons. A friend of ours at first came on as a co-manager for another team, then quickly showed off his skills.

It is no exaggeration to say that he knows each MLB team’s pitching 47,000 deep. He knows pitchers who haven’t been born yet. He undoubtedly owns some creepy orb of future telling, because he is absolutely brilliant at picking up a pitcher off the waiver wire the day of their no hitter, then dropping them the day before they get shelled for 7 runs in 1 1/3 innings.

What this meant was that for the past couple years I was getting beat at my own game. Badly.

Let’s get all literary and stuff for a second. Sun Tzu in The Art of War talked about knowing your own strengths as well as knowing the strengths of your enemy.

It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.

This is true in fantasy baseball as well. Before, I had little competition in mining the FA pitching pool. Suddenly, I was playing against someone who played that strategy better than I did, and quickly made an unlimited resource scarce to me. Understanding who I was competing against, I had to quickly change strategies to be competitive.

Below are some thoughts on how this may practically play out in your fantasy baseball leagues:

  • Play to your strengths (know thineself). If you have a knack for discovering pitching, then get your roto points on that side of the equation. If you are great at working trades, then build your team that way. If you are an active owner then go Tony LaRussa style and manage the heck out of your team, maximizing counting numbers. The point is that you should play to your strengths when possible.
  • But understand who you are playing against (know thine enemy). If there are 4-5 owners in your league that favor a certain type of player (or follow a certain strategy), then you need to find the new “market inefficiency.” You are competing for resources in the player pool. Study who you are playing against so that you can zig where they zag, if necessary. Understanding your leagues mates’ tendencies makes you a better fantasy baseball player.
  • Be a student of the guys you play against. Making a point to get know the tendencies of your league mates helps you in a variety of ways. You make make informed decisions come draft time because you know the players they’ve drafted for years and years. You know what players they’ll draft for, plus if they favor two for ones, or a straight up blockbuster. You’ll know how much patience they have with players, or if they hit the waiver wire hard. It is the sum of all your league mates’ “ticks” that can give you great clues in competing against them.
  • Keep them guessing on your strategies! Keep them guessing yourself, and don’t get stuck in a rut. I’m not suggesting you throw out what you are comfortable with, just for the sake of doing it. I’m saying if you’ve thought about trying out a different strategy, then this is a good reason to step up and give it a shot. It reminds your league mates that you have tricks up your sleeves; that you are a dangerous man. You want your leagues to think you are dangerous.
  • Always keep an eye out for your competitive edge.

In conclusion, there is no conclusion. Why would we draw a conclusion? “Mix it up and try to win!” isn’t much of a conclusion. I just hope I gave you a little to think about.

In Rules, Strategy ,
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Fantasy Baseball: Building a pitching staff in season

Michael Dixon —  April 16, 2012 — 1 Comment

Chad Billingsley vs. Aramis Ramirez

Before I get into some advice, let me tell a quick story. It’s draft day in an auction league that Nash, Clave, and myself are all a part of. I am sitting in front of my computer, Slurpee in hand (I am so thankful that I have a 7-11 within two minutes of my house), and Matt Kemp’s name comes up.

Now, I had no plans on drafting Matt Kemp. Generally, I don’t lay a draft out as thoroughly as Nash does, but I do know the big names that I am targeting; Kemp was not on that list. But he seemed to be going for a little cheaper than I had anticipated, so I uttered a phrase which I will not repeat, bid on Kemp, and landed him.

In doing so, I basically passed on any real chance I had of getting a true ace, but I did not care. The reason is that I have no problem having a revolving door for a pitching staff.

No, I am not talking about streaming, more selective streaming.

That’s not a foolproof strategy but if done well, it will work out for you. Here are a few tips to look at.

1. Look for people against bad offenses
This is not all that unlike streaming defenses in fantasy football, which I also do. Basically, there are offenses to avoid, and offenses to attack. For example, in a few of my leagues, I brought in Chad Billingsley to start for me on Friday vs. the Padres.

In that start, he went 8 1/3 innings, allowed three hits, one walk, and struck out 11 men. Quite frankly, I know that the Padres have no offense. Billingsley isn’t good enough to activate in every one of his starts, but when he’s facing a bad offense in a pitcher’s park, he’s easily good enough to play.

Basically, ask yourself “What’s the worst that can happen?” I know that this strategy works a lot better in weekly head to head leagues, but idea still works. The Padres aren’t going to go out and rock anyone. If we’re talking about a team like the Reds or Diamondbacks, leave Billingsley on the pine. Teams like the Padres are safe bets. Stream pitchers facing them at will.

2. Bring in high strikeout guys
At the very least, you know that you’ll get something. Don’t bring these guys in during weekly play when you’re in a battle for WHIP (as they tend to walk a lot of hitters), but the rest of the categories are fine.

But if nothing else, the strikeouts will be there. Look at Tim Lincecum’s Opening Day start against the Diamondbacks. Arizona roughed him up a little bit, but he still had seven punch outs in less than six innings. That ratio will work very well for your squad. Look to guys like Jonathan Sanchez or Francisco Liriano if you’re trying to find players that could be available.

Even in bad outings, high strikeout guys fill that stat very well. That’s something to keep in mind.

3. Look at your league’s standings
Okay, this is a piece of advice I would give to anyone trying to figure any roster dilemma out, but it really applies here.

Let the season go a little bit. I am not suggesting that you draft no pitchers, just don’t waste money or early round picks on them.

If you are in a weekly league, you can look week to week to see what the critical categories will be. If it’s a roto league, give it a month or two to get a shape of where you stand in what categories.

If you’re in need of a strikeout guy but aren’t as concerned with walks (or WHIP), then you bring in a guy like that. Maybe you need a guy to solidify your WHIP (a guy like R.A. Dickey is a stud in that regard). If you don’t need the strikeouts, look for that guy.

Lastly, maybe you just need a high win guy, in which case pitchers on the Yankees or Red Sox become valuable.

The bottom line is that you need innings to have any chance in pitching categories. With innings, you will get more strikeouts and wins, as well as saves if you carry a few closers. But it also helps you minimize the damage done by a single runner (WHIP) or run (ERA).

If you stream properly, you can be sure that those innings are almost all effective ones. Going after guys in good situations that fill needs will go a long way in making your pitching staff one of the best in your league.

Best of all, it will also allow you to build a killer offense. Think about streaming pitchers in for the rest of the year. If you need any help, it’s a strategy I like to use a lot, and I can promise it will populate a lot of my posts.

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Ask Nash: Outfield Eligibility

Nash —  April 6, 2012 — Leave a comment
Nash,
You always promote individual outfield positions: LF CF RF over general OF spots like most of the fantasy baseball playing world.  Why is that exactly?
Ryan in Philadelphia, PA

Hey Ryan,
That is a great question.  I think for me it is that I started playing in a league that only rostered C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, RF, UTL spots, so it’s always felt natural to me that you’d have to field a fantasy baseball team like you would a real team in baseball, and not just throw together 8 or 9 hitters.

In other leagues I have started I have used those above positions, but I’m not opposed to throwing in a 1B/3B or one extra general OF spot. It really depends on the size of the league. If you have fewer owners then you might want to consider adding more positions to force owners to dig deeper into the talent pool.

No league I have ever played in just allows you to roster 4 generic IF positions instead of the traditional 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, so why should outfield be so different?

You may call me a fantasy baseball elitist but I feel that fantasy baseball is most fun when it is a bit more challenging.

Maybe it is just me.

However, I am not gonna pass judgement on leagues that just use general OF spots because I realize it just makes it MUCH easier to get new people to join leagues that aren’t too much work, and I am all for getting more and more people into fantasy baseball!

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