Archives For Strategy

A MLB Closer: The Measure of a Man

Clave Jones —  April 23, 2013 — Leave a comment
Kelvin Herrera, a 102 mph high-five. Image courtesy of Minda Haas.

Kelvin Herrera, a 102 mph high-five. Image courtesy of Minda Haas.

I just traded away a closer, which is something I most likely will do at least once more this season. While I’m not entirely of the “never pay for saves” crowd (you have to pay something for saves), I do treat saves as a fungible commodity. My working mindset is that there’s a good shot I can find the next 9th inning guy, making my current closers perfect trade chips if I need to upgrade elsewhere. So I spin a closer off, only to then find another.

There’s my lede, written to give a nugget of fantasy baseball advice, before I shift toward looking at the qualities that make a closer. Remember, closers aren’t made in the minors. Rarely is there any type of correlation at all between the number of saves a player has in the minors and the numbers of saves he’ll get in the Majors.

Closers are rarely groomed, it’s usually a role stumbling into based upon a a skill set. So when scouting potential closers you are looking for a skill set, not experience.

Again, I’m just talking scouting the minors. Rarely will the Triple A guy with 30 saves be a dominant MLB closer, because a closer in the minors is not given the same value and it’s rarely a pitcher with upside. A closer in the minors is often the team’s 29-year-old journeyman while the young guy with more upside to his skillset is being given looks in different roles (the the starting rotation).

But often they’ll flash certain skills, make the MLB roster as a bullpen arm, show success in getting out major leagues batters, then finally get opportunities in the 9th inning when an opportunity arrises due to injuries or ineffectiveness of the incumbent.

So what’s the measure of a closure?  What’s the kind of skills you’re scouting if you want to have a deep list of possible future closer candidates?

Makeup

We’ve heard a million times from managers something to the effect of “closer experience.” They are looking for a certain amount of confidence and emotional discipline in their closer. Swagger. Machismo.

While not something that can be measured, nor it is often rational, it’s still a fact of the game. In order to get the opportunity a potential closer typically has to exhibit that he has at least a little bit of “it.” What “it” is.

Cheese

A second rule of thumb is that a potential closer candidate needs to throw the heat. A quality fastball that hits the mid-90′s certainly looks good on the resumé. If the candidate can write a killer cover letter that displays his make up, then he might just get an interview.

Obviously, every closer can’t throw 100 mph like Aroldis Chapman, not does every pitcher that throws the ball hard make a good closer. Andrew Cashner throws just as fast, but let’s look instead at Kelvin Herrera. Herrera actually had the highest average fastball velocity in 2012, but his strikeout rate wasn’t nearly as high as Aroldis Chapman’s. That’s because it’s not just speed, it’s also location and movement and a host of 100 other things. Speed alone won’t generate a swing and miss, as Herrera found out. His lack of fastball movement simply generated weak contact. But 2013 is already flashing a little more life in Herrera’s fastball, meaning that the movement coupled with the speed should pay dividends on the strikeout rate and raise his chances of a future job as closer.

Out Pitch

But it’s not always the fastball that leads to all the swings and misses. Often times it’s the secondary pitch that will serve as a closer’s out pitch, anyone who has seen Craig Kimbrel‘s filthy 87 mph curveball.

The takeaway here is that you should scout relievers whose second pitch is just as good as their first. That’s a player who is a future closer in the making, as that second pitch keeps hitters scared and leads to the quick outs needed by a closer.

 

So there is how I scout my future closers. I’m looking for a skillset that consists of a dominate fastball and equally effective second pitch, wrapped up in a player that has “it.” That’s how you measure a man with a chance to get you saves. In Part 2 later this week, I’ll share with you several guys who have made the list.

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of April 22

Michael Dixon —  April 22, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

In 2012, Dixon’s Picks was not only something I did every week, but I really enjoyed it. So, here we are again.

You don’t win a fantasy baseball league without taking chances. Some of those are season-long chances, other are short-term ones, like, should I pick this waiver wire pitcher up for a few starts, or not?

The simple word for all of that is streaming. It’s a practice that some people hate, but many use, which is why I write these every week.

Who’s eligible, who’s not?. Well, anyone available in more than half of ESPN leagues (ESPN is my primary fantasy baseball site) is eligible. For the most part, these are guys who are scheduled to pitch twice during the week and for the benefit of you head-to-head guys, this will run every Monday. We all know that Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw won’t be claimed on any waiver wires. These guys won’t be that good for the length of the season, but they’re in situations with favorable matchups. Now, you ultimately decide whether or not these guys come to your team, but I’d suggest giving these guys a look.

Of course, I’m dealing with probable starts. Things like weather delays and injuries sometimes change that, let’s just hope it doesn’t happen too much.

Let’s get 2013′s first Dixon’s Picks underway…

 

Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins – Probable Starts: Monday at Minnesota Twins, Sunday vs. Chicago Cubs

Obviously, if you claim a Marlins’ player, you know that the run support will be thin, so they won’t exactly be bankable for wins. But they’ve had some solid pitching performances through the year, and Ricky Nolasco has been rock solid. Take a look at what he’s done through the first four starts of the year.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
23.1 6 23 6 15 0-2 3.86 1.24

That’s two out of four quality starts, and none of the outings were particularly bad. Remember, this early in the season, it doesn’t take much more than a bad inning or two to really inflate things like ERA and WHIP. So, he’s pitching well and getting to pitch at Target Field & Marlins Park against a middle of the road offense (Twins), and a struggling one (Cubs). Thus far, he’s gone twice against a strong Nationals team, and once against the Mets and Phillies.

Now, the downfall for Nolasco is that he’s not a high strikeout guy. But pitching against these hitters in these parks, contact shouldn’t be a huge problem. Yes, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, and even Alfonso Soriano are fine hitters, but nobody else really strikes fear into any pitcher. I’d fully expect two quality starts this week from the Marlins’ top guy.

Nolasco’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 5 12 4 10 1-0 3.46 1.23

 

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox - Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Cleveland Indians, Sunday vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Do you like gambling? If you do, then Jose Quintana is a guy that you should give a really strong look at this week. Yes, the Indians and Rays have some capable hitters on their rosters but right now, those are scuffling offenses and Quintana is pitching incredibly well.

We also know that Quintana is capable of keeping runners from crossing home plate when he is on. Take a look at his first three months of 2012 (he didn’t debut until May).

  • May: 1.76 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
  • June: 2.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
  • July: 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Perhaps a bit lucky with that June ERA, but also unlucky in July.

The point of all of that is that over his last two starts, Quintana has been pretty hot. Take a look at the numbers.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13.2 0 6 2 14 1-0 0.00 0.44

One of those games was a seven-inning, one-hit, no walk performance against the Indians. Another was a similarly dominant performance against the Blue Jays.

Now, I am not projecting that Quintana will continue at this pace for the season or even the week, but he can be worse than that and still pretty dang good. Those numbers are just gaudy. Right now, I don’t see Cleveland or Tampa halting that in a serious way. But going beyond this week a little bit, Quintana is 24, was a dominant pitcher in the minors and was solid in 2012 as a rookie. He’s available in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues. If you have a scuffling pitching staff or have one of many guys who have been hurt, Quintana might be a valuable addition beyond this week.

Quintana’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 4 12 4 11 1-0 2.57 1.14

 

Carlos Villanueva, Chicago Cubs - Probable Starts: Tuesday at Cincinnati Reds, Sunday at. Miami Marlins

I’d like to show you how Carlos Villanueva has done thus far in 2013, but let’s look at this start-by-start.

Opponent IP  ER H BB K ERA WHIP Dec.
at Atlanta 6.2 1 6 2 6 1.35 1.12 ND
vs. San Francisco 7.1 0 3 1 3 0.00 0.55 ND
vs. Texas 7 2 4 1 6 2.57 0.71 W
Total 21 3 13 4 15 1.29 0.81 1-0

Okay, Major League Baseball insists that teams who qualify for the Wild Card play-in game are playoff teams, so we’re going to go with that right now. All three of those teams made the playoffs in 2012. I make that point and I showed the start-by-start totals because I’m sure many of you are looking at that first opponent, the Cincinnati Reds, as a team that doesn’t exactly jump out as a classic stream opponent. With Shin Soo-Choo, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce, they’re one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, especially at home. Under normal circumstances, this is not a team you’d stream against.

But Villanueva has had three brilliant outings against very capable lineups this year, including a scorching Atlanta lineup.

I’d also point out that if you really don’t want to gamble, you could leave Villanueva on the bench on Tuesday, and pitch him over the weekend against the Miami Giancarlo’s Marlins. Now, you may see that and realize that I also advised Nolasco for that game. Obviously, if you need two wins on Sunday, that’s not going to work. But I would expect a low-scoring affair there and would have no problem throwing opposing pitchers, even if I can’t pick up more than one win.

Like Quintana, VIllanueva has a history of getting really hot. Now, his career is a little longer and while he’s not a bad pitcher, he’s not a great one. But when he’s hot, you want him on your team. Right now, he’s hot. You’ll certainly want him on your team when he’s facing the Marlins.

Now, I think Villanueva will do fine against the Reds this week, but I do understand if many of you don’t want to start him against Cincinnati. So, instead of just a total projection, I’ll give you a start-by-start one.

Villanueva’s Projections for the Week

  IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
at Cincinnati 6  3  6  2 4 ND 4.50 1.33 
at Miami 8 0 4 1 7 W 0.00 0.63 
Total 14 3 10 3 11 1-0 1.93 0.93 

 

 

 

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Replacing Injured Stars: Look Left on the Platoon

Michael Dixon —  April 18, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

I don’t know about you, but it seems to me like 2013 has been the year of the injury so far. Johnny Cueto, Jered Weaver, Zack Greinke, all out for a bit. On Monday, you’ll see the first 2013 installment of Dixon’s Picks, waiver wire pitchers who will help you in the short term, especially for that week. You’ll actually see that every Monday for the rest of the season.

But today, we’re going to try try to find out how to replace Yoenis Cespedes, Aramis Ramirez, Hanley Ramirez, and every other bat that seems to be on the shelf now.

Now, you can try for a young gun that your whole league has missed out on. But honestly, most young players worth having are probably on a roster already, or in the minor leagues. You can try to play guys on hot streaks but honestly, that’s going to have limited success. You don’t realize most hot streaks are even happening until the middle of them, and they may be just about wrapping up at that point. You can go for high steal guys, who are a threat to maybe score a lot of runs or hit .300 (Denard Span, Juan Pierre), but that’s probably only a good idea if you see your team needing steals. At this point, the season is too young to make that call.

Right now, we’re trying to fill the stat sheet as much as possible. You can do that with platoon guys, specifically the left-handed hitters in the platoon. To start, let’s take a look at some numbers of different left-handed hitters with different skills.

We’ll start with Barry Bonds, who one way or another, has more home runs than anyone in the history of the game.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 535  .303 .458 .626
vs. LHP 227 .289 .417 .569

Obviously Bonds was never a platoon player, nor was he ever available on any fantasy baseball waiver wires. But we’ll use him as a bit of a control, if you will. The slash stats are pretty close, while just over 70 percent of his career home runs came against right-handed pitching.

Now, let’s look at Josh Hamilton. Obviously, Hamilton isn’t going to be available in any fantasy leagues, either. He’s not the kind of player Bonds was, but we’ll just consider this level two of our tier, and I promise, this is going somewhere.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 120 .313 .378 .578
vs. LHP 43 .277 .324 .475

The slash stats are a bit more lopsided than Bonds. But those 120 homers make up 74 percent of his career total.

Two more guys to show. The first will be Raul Ibanez, who’s pretty much a platoon guy now and was never at Hamilton’s level as an overall hitter. But in his best days, he was an everyday guy.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 218 .283 .348 .488
vs. LHP 55 .262 .315 .419

That is just under 80 percent of Ibanez’s career home runs against right-handed pitchers. A higher percentage than Bonds and Hamilton, for sure. Those two are everyday players and the discrepancy there can be chalked up to there being more right-handed pitchers than left-handed. With Ibanez, it’s not so simple.

With Seth Smith of the A’s, who Nash recently talked about as a potential Yoenis Cespedes replacement, it’s a little more difficult.

  HR AVG OBP SLG
vs. RHP 59  .284 .362 .504
vs. LHP 7 .205 .277 .332

That’s 89 percent of his career total. That’s 19 percent more than Bonds, about 15 more than Hamilton, and 9 more than Ibanez.

Here’s the thing about those guys, though. If you’re looking to replace a player who’s hit the DL, you don’t need a star like Bonds or Hamilton in his prime, nor do you even Ibanez in his best years. All of those guys would probably not be available. Seth Smith, is available in nearly every league, and will absolutely do if you’ve had an outfielder go down.

Yes, I know, those AVG/OBP/SLG splits are just not close, but they don’t need to be. Yes, Smith can’t left-handed pitching, but he doesn’t face lefties that often. There are a few reasons for that.

  1. Again, there are more right-handed pitchers than left-handed counterparts. If you were to average .284 and .205, you’d get a sub-.250 hitter. But Smith is a .270 hitter. Because again, there are more right-handed pitchers than left-handed and…
  2. Smith rarely faces left-handed pitching.

The left-sided side of a platoon works so well because platoon left-handed bats generally don’t bat against lefties, so you don’t need to worry about the slash splits as much. Since they do get more at-bats, their slash stats will impact your team more than a lefty. While a 30-for-100 and 3-for-10 hitter both bat .300, the guy with more at-bats helps your team’s average much more. Simple, I know, but worth repeating.

Smith is a pretty drastic case, but certainly not the only platoon guy who can help you out short term. Todd Helton is no longer the player he once way, but can still do damage against right-handed arms, especially in Coors Field. Carlos Pena (who Will recently talked at length on) can hit lefties is another guy who can still do damage.

Something else simple but worth saying: Hitters who get more at-bats will have better counted stats. So again, you don’t want the right-handed side of the platoon, but the lefties will do well as a short-term fix.

Now, if a star guy is down for the year, a platoon guy probably won’t work too well. In that case, your best chance at remaining competitive is a trade. But in a normal 2-4 week DL stint, go with the lefties. They’re more than likely your best chance at success.

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It was a bad day for aces.

Clave Jones —  April 8, 2013 — Leave a comment
Don't panic if your ace implodes. Photo courtesy of Eric Van Dyke.

Don’t panic if your ace implodes. Photo courtesy of Eric Van Dyke.

Many fantasy owners started Dickey, Strasburg, and Hamels yesterday. These were guys who were counted on to anchor their pitching staff, so needless to say, things didn’t go as hoped. Here are the lines for these guys, plus a few others:

IP K W ERA Whip
Cole Hamels Phi 5.2 2 0 12.71 2.29
R.A. Dickey Tor 4.2 5 0 13.50 2.57
Matt Cain SF 3.2 2 0 22.09 2.45
Yovani Gallardo Mil 6.0 3 0 6.00 1.83
James Shields KC 6.0 8 1 6.00 1.67
David Price TB 5.0 3 0 14.40 2.60
Stephen Strasburg Was 5.1 5 0 10.13 2.44

The aces weren’t aces.

Shields was probably the one taken the latest in most drafts and he was the only one with a win or any significant Ks. But he still pitched a stinker that would kill your ratios. The rest were miserable and Cain didn’t even last 4 innings.

Sure, there were aces like CC Sabathia and Adam Wainwright who pitched gems yesterday, but where I’m going with this is that it’s early season and a rough outing or slow start will get the emotions going among your more impetuous league mates.

Here are a few tips if your fantasy team got shelled yesterday:

Don’t panic.

Seriously, don’t panic. Roto is a marathon, not a sprint. No one likes to see shellacking or golden sombrero at any time during the season, but it’s going to happen. Just like great hitters will ultimately put up great numbers, great pitchers will ultimately put up great stat lines. But they will toss a stinker or two. Don’t let the fact that it’s early in the season cause any sort of over-reaction.

Be patient because the aces that got knocked around yesterday are likely to string together gems in their next 3-4 starts and be right back on track, as will your fantasy team.

Take advantage of other’s panic.

Some of your league mates won’t take the above advice and they’ll panic. They will be convinced that one bad start is an omen of a bad season to come and they’ll give up on a guy too soon. I’m hesitant to tell you to take advantage of another man’s poor choices, but you need to absolutely take advantage of another man’s poor choices.

If they panic and drop a player then burn your waiver claim or blow your FAAB (well, that’s an odd phrase). If they offer you a trade where they are selling seriously low on a guy after one bad start, then accept it immediately and say “Thanks sucker!”  Actually, do accept the trade, but don’t call them a sucker. You don’t want to burn that bridge. Call them a sucker behind their back.

Ride a hot streak.

Some players are getting off to slow starts (pun intended). Meanwhile, pitchers like Jose Fernandez  pitched a gem, despite being young and over his head. If you have roster flexibility, get a few solid innings out of the fast starters. They are out there. Look for a waiver wire surprise and even if you only use him for a start or two or might be able to flip him for an asset later. I can remember picking up Sam Fuld last year, playing him for 2 games, then trading him away for a struggling pitcher who ended up putting together the great season I knew he would.

Don’t do this at the expense your guys who are struggling. Remember, be patient and don’t drop them for a player who just happens to be hot. But do consult Dixon’s Picks if you have a little roster flexibility. He’ll provide you with some solid options.

Play day-to-day.

If you love the day-to-day nature, try daily baseball. If you find you are the kind of guy that really likes chasing those day to day breakouts, then go with it. Maybe you’re naturally a sprinter and not a marathon runner. Then roto might not be for you, so give daily baseball a try.

I’m sure you’ve seen several advertised. I play StarStreet because I like that you can do a Pick Five as well as several Daily options, such as head-to-head or buy-ins. I’m a roto guy all the way, but I do like that instant gratification of daily fantasy baseball. Give Starstreet a try.

 

I realize it’s tough early in the season to see your top round pick or guy you spent a lot of auction money just totally implode. But dont panic. In fact, take advantage of those who do panic.

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Spring Training Stats Mean Something

Clave Jones —  April 1, 2013 — Leave a comment
Yasiel Puig had a monster spring but was met with no opening on the Dodger's roster.

Yasiel Puig had a monster spring but was met with no opening on the Dodger’s roster.

Spring training is coming to a close, which means we have 50-80 at bats to consider. I know what you’re thinking, because it’s conventional wisdom: “It’s just spring training. Those stats don’t mean anything.”

This is certainly true to a point. A great spring training doesn’t guarantee a great year any more than a poor spring training means the season is lost.  But spring training stats do mean something, so don’t disregard them entirely. They mean more than the nothing you’ve been told. I’ll share a few things to look for as you make your final tweaks to your Opening Day rosters.

Opportunity

First, the primary thing that can be taken away from spring training is that it can help us determine a player’s opportunity to get at bats.

For as much talk around the accuracy of player projections, it shouldn’t be forgotten that projections are only as good as the estimate of the number of at bats a player receives. Guaranteed at bats and playing time are particularly a consideration when drafting later round players. If a player isn’t getting playing time, then he’s not contributing stats for your fantasy team. Opportunity matters.

Taking a gamble on a player like Domonic Brown is a calculated guess using evidence from his strong spring. Taking all skill out of the equation, we now know he will see opportunities to swing the bat this season.

There is the argument that most fantasy players know guys are going to get playing time because of injuries or roster depth even before spring training starts. Valid argument. But that is confirmed during spring, plus you get an idea of how they’ll fit into their teams’ offense.   There are things that you can speculate on prior to spring training, but are confirmed over the six week during spring training.

Sanity Checks

Spring training offers a sanity check against rumors flying around. When Mike Trout reported to camp having added 20 pounds of muscle, the rumors immediately began flying around the internet that he was now too big to steal bases. The idea was that he was too heavy and that his speed would decrease, which would lead to a drop in steals, a huge fantasy asset.

Mike Trout has 6 spring training steals. It’s foolishness to project those out as a regular season estimate. That’s not how it works. But what it does show us is that he’s running just fine. Concerns about his size were hyped and overblown. Spring put those fears to rest.

A quick glance at spring training stats can serve as evidence to either confirm or deny the stories floating around about players and their skills.

Scouting

Speaking of steals, Ezequiel Carrera has 11 spring stolen bases. Exactly who is Ezequiel Carrera, you ask? He’s a young outfielder for the Cleveland Indians who will not make the team and who realistically has the ceiling of a fourth outfielder. But he clearly has speed, so scratch his name down for future reference. If an opportunity arrises due to injury or he simply gets a September call, you have a candidate for cheap late-season steals.

Jackie Bradley and Yasiel Puig are others examples after their strong springs. Puig has already been sent down and Bradley is likely next. But pocket the list, and use it for future reference. You’ve just done some cheap scouting for potential second half value on your fantasy baseball team.

New Approach

A player’s offseason preparation – or lack there of –is revealed to everyone during spring training. Ask yourself ‘why’ when a player is performing either unexpectedly worse or better during spring training. Did they change their batting stance?  Are they trying a new pitch? Avoid the “best shape of their life” clichés, but do ask why.  The answer to the why question can indicate if a good or bad spring training is a long-term change or “just spring training stats.”

The rule of thumb is that “best shape of my life” rarely is an indicator that translates into a full season of improvement at the plate. Likewise, “fixed a hole in his swing” has dubious long-term success. But when you hear that a pitcher has “added a new pitch” you’d be be wise to pay attention. That can often be more than mere noise.  These things can be seen during spring training.

 

Again, no one is saying that there is a direct correlation between spring training stats and season long success. In that regard, those who say that “they are just spring training stats” are correct. But spring training stats are useful in determining opportunity, to test the validity of rumors, to scout future value, and to judge a player’s new approach. In short, spring training stats mean something, which is more than nothing.

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Ask Nash: Mid-Late Round Pitching Strategy

Nash —  March 29, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Dagny Mol.

Photo courtesy of Dagny Mol.

Nash

“I am in the middle of my draft. Most of the upper tier pitchers are gone leaving mostly guys like Samardzija, Lester, Kennedy, and Lincecum. There are many upper level closers. I am tempted to just go after the upper level closers. What do you think about this strategy? My categories are Wins, Strikeouts, home runs Allowed (the lower the better), Saves, ERA, WHIP.”

Ken, Seattle

 

Hey Ken,

Thanks for reading, and great question. I assume that by “upper level closers” you mean that Craig Kimbrel is off the board, but pretty much everyone else is available. Because if Kimbrel was is still on the board at that point, you need to take him, otherwise this decision is a bit tougher.

A good closer here might be the right move, especially if you do not have a closer at all. A guy like Sergio Romo or John Axford can go a long way in giving you something you need. Romo for instance will help stabilize your ERA and WHIP a great deal and gets a fair amount of K/9. Whereas a guy like Axford when he is on can get as many strikeouts in a season as guys like Brandon McCarthy or Mark Buehrle. Of course, both guys also help in the save category, as well.

Now as far as these starters go, I like then in this order:  Tim Lincecum, Jeff Samardzija, Ian Kennedy and Jon Lester.

Lincecum I like because of the bounce-back potential. Just two seasons ago he was a top-tier starter. Granted he is far from that now, and may never return to that level, BUT, this late in a draft, you could do worse than a guy that has 180 K upside.

Samardzija is an absolute workhorse of a pitcher. Think Carl Pavano with arm strength. If his strikeout totals from last year are him turning the corner on becoming a strikeout guy, then his future is very bright. Even if he dips down to where he was before he is still a VERY effective pitcher and great for fantasy purposes.

Ian Kennedy I have never really like a whole lot. He also pitches in a launching pad when at home AND his division is getting tougher each year.  Just think if Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez can stay healthy and productive in CO. The D’backs could be in some real trouble in their rebuilding stage.

With Kennedy it appears his 2011 success might be the black sheep of his career as in his other two full seasons he has put up 3.80+ ERA along with 1.20 and 1.30 WHIP, hardly hardly what we saw in 2011. Managers are taking a step back from drafting Kennedy so high so there’s potential to benefit from that backlash. Even still, I prefer the first 2 on this list MUCH more.

Lastly we have Jon Lester.  I would say this is about where Lester should have always been drafted: Aside from his 225 strikeouts in 2009 and 2010, he really has never shown elite stuff. Sometimes high K guys can be overrated in the same way that serious mashers are, like Adam Dunn.

People took Adam Dunn year in and year out knowing they would get killed in AVG, but netting those 40+ homers was worth it to them.  Granted Lester’s ERA and WHIP were never .240 AVG bad, BUT his Career 3.76 ERA and 1.31 WHIP are more like best case scenarios the way he is going. I say wait a round or two more on him and then maybe pull the trigger, unless you took Lincecum here. Hoping for two bounce-back hopeful guys could leave you VERY disappointed.

Well I hope this helps, Ken.

Also feel free to shoot use questions anytime on Facebook during the season. One of us is almost ALWAYS on.

Nash

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Who’d you rather: Will Middlebrooks or Todd Frazier?

Michael Dixon —  March 28, 2013 — 2 Comments
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

In a few years, it’s very possible baseball fans everywhere will be looking at 2012 as a landmark season. A seemingly endless amount of rookies debuted or at least became full time players for the first time.

Will Middlebrooks debuted in 2012 and got off to a hot start before an injury. Todd Frazier debuted in 2011, but kept his rookie eligibility, becoming a full timer for the first time during the season and finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Bryce Harper and Wade Miley.

Both Middlebrooks and Frazier play the hot corner, third base. But if you could only have one of these young bucks, who would it be?

Before we get going, I want to ask you guys a few trivia questions about the third base position.

  1. How many players with 3B eligibility in 2013 hit 20 or more homers in 2012?
  2. Of the same list of players, how many drove in 70 runs?

The answers will be at the bottom, so you have to read this whole thing first. I mean it, don’t scroll down or I’ll, well, I’ll have very hurt feelings.

Okay, Will Middlebrooks and Todd Frazier. Who’d you rather? Let’s take a look at some variables.

 

The Stat Line

Take a look at what these two did in the majors 2012:

H/AB BB R HR RBI SB AVG/OBP/SLG
Frazier 115/422 36 55 19 67 3 .273/.331/.498
Middlebrooks 77/267 13 34 15 54 4 .288/.325/.509

At a glance, this would appear to be advantage Middlebrooks, especially in the power department. In 155 fewer at bats, he was just four total homers and 13 RBI shy of Frazier. Throw in a higher batting average, and this would seem to be a no-brainer. Granted, Frazier has a slightly higher OBP, but that’s not a standard category in fantasy baseball and the gap isn’t exactly that great anyway. So, this is Middlebrooks in a walkover, right?

Not necessarily. The advantage to Frazier is that he has more at bats. Pitchers have had a chance to adjust to him and he’s had a chance to adjust back. That hasn’t happened with Middlebrooks. Not yet, anyway. Also, consider that his batting average was 15 points lower, but his OBP was five points higher. That’s indicative that Middlebrooks is a bit more aggressive (he also strikes out at a higher rate), which means that he’s a little easier for quality pitchers to expose.

So, even with a higher ceiling from Middlebrooks, Frazier gives you a steadier baseline.

 

The Help

Frazier has has Shin-Soo Choo, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, Ryan Ludwick, and Jay Bruce as help. Middlebrooks has Jacoby Ellsbury, Shane Victorino, Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, and David Ortiz. Not bad in Boston, but Frazier clearly has the better teammates. So, advantage Frazier, right? Again, not so fast.

With a little help from our friends at MLBdepthcharts, let’s take a look at where Middlebrooks and Frazier figure to stand in their respective lineups. Right now, they have Frazier batting sixth for the Reds, and Middlebrooks batting fifth for the Red Sox. At bats do matter here and a fifth hitter will get more than a sixth hitter. Additionally, every one of Middlebrooks’ top teammates is either old, has an injury history, or both. That’s not really the case in Cincinnati. Again, that seems like an advantage for Frazier, but it also means that Frazier is more likely to be stuck in the sixth spot. Middlebrooks could easily see some time at the top of the Boston order.

If Boston’s lineup was terrible, that wouldn’t matter as much. But those hitters are still competent, so the advantage here goes to Middlebrooks.

 

Looking Deeper

If you’re a Middlebrooks supporter, you’ve probably made this point in one way or another here, but while Frazier did give Major League pitchers a chance to adjust to him, he didn’t really adjust back. Frazier had a strong summer, batting .306 in July and .330 in August, but hit .176 in the season’s final month. That’s against expanded rosters, meaning Major League players should be improving facing thinned out competition, especially since Frazier did play the season before in September.

While he hasn’t lagged badly, Frazier is hardly tearing up the Grapefruit League, while Middlebrooks is doing pretty well, showing a more consistent stroke, though the Spring Training power edge lies with Frazier.

An edge that Frazier has is position eligibility. Both are third basemen, but Frazier can play first for your fantasy team.

 

Who’d you Rather?

Let’s look at our Draft Kit numbers for both:

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG/OBP/SLG
Middlebrooks 143/538 70 21 77 5 .266/.310/.439
Frazier 141/524 70 23 80 10 .269/.325/.469

You’ll have a hard time finding two players at the same position who are as close as those two are. It’s really a dealer’s choice, and this dealer chooses Middlebrooks.

Frazier’s games played edge gives him the better baseline, but his 2012 finish worries me, and while first base eligibility is nice, it’s not exactly a position where many fantasy owners find themselves desperate for help.

Also, batting down in the order in the National League is going to hurt his run totals, as all of his top teammates won’t be there to drive him in. He’ll be getting the Reds worst hitters, and their pitchers.

Of the two, Middlebrooks is more likely to have a true star caliber season. When comparing Matt Cain and Cole Hamels, I took Cain. The reason there is that I saw him as a more stable option, as even if Hamels has a more transcendent year, Cain’s numbers will still be solid across the board. Those are front-line pitchers and with front-line players (hitters or pitchers), I’ll generally be inclined to take the more stable option.

Middlebrooks and Frazier aren’t front-line players, though. Not yet, anyway. In my two snake drafts this year, both players were mid-late round picks both times. At that point of the draft, I like to gamble a little bit and go with the higher ceiling, even if the floor is lower. So, while we project these two close to each other, I’m going with Middlebrooks.

 

Now, are you ready for those answers? Okay!

  1. 12 players: Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Chase Headley, Pedro Alvarez, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Hanley Ramirez, Trevor Plouffe, David Wright, David Freese, Mike Moustakas, and Kyle Seager.
  2. 13 players: Miguel Cabrera, Chase Headley, Aramis Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez, David Freese, Chris Johnson, Mike Moustakas, and Martin Prado.

Nowhere on either of those lists are Middlebrooks or Frazier. Another name absent there is Brett Lawrie, who we also have high hopes for this year. Third base is still viewed by some as a razor-thin position, but there’s plenty of value there. Don’t worry too much about the hot corner if you miss out on the top names.

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Waiver Wire Success: Winning Teams = Winning Pitchers

Eric Pleiss —  March 27, 2013 — Leave a comment
Pitching for baseball's best team helped Gio Gonzalez lead the majors in wins in 2012. Photo courtesy of Richard Martin.

Pitching for baseball’s best team helped Gio Gonzalez lead the majors in wins in 2012.
Photo courtesy of Richard Martin.

After your draft is over, you might be excited about the guys you snuck through for a $1. You also might be disappointed that you drafted Hanley Ramirez in the first round and then he injured his hand and will start the season on the DL. No matter what the result of your draft was, you will eventually need to find a player or two on the waiver wire.

When looking to add a pitcher, go out and get the best player you can, but if you find yourself with a choice between two relatively similar players, always pick the player on the better team. Better teams win more games. More victories means more opportunities for your pitcher to pick up a win.

Pitcher wins might not be the best way to measure pitcher performance, but regardless of their analytic value, wins appear as a fantasy stat in a vast majority of fantasy baseball leagues. One of the reasons wins are frowned upon by the statistical community is because so much happens in a game to determine the outcome that is beyond the control of any one pitcher.

Even a great pitching performance cannot make up for a team that does not score any runs. But a terrible pitching performance could be rewarded with a victory thanks to a few timely hits. Every game ends with the teams earning a win and a loss, and the same goes for pitchers, someone will record a victory, and someone will be tagged with a loss. So if you have two similarly skilled players, the player on the better team (even relievers) will end up with a couple of bonus wins at the end of the season, just because his teammates are better.

This is simple advice, but let it serve as another reminder that, even on the waiver wire, real baseball affects fantasy baseball.

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How to Win via ESPN

Clave Jones —  March 22, 2013 — 1 Comment
I'm unaware if ESPN has fantasy tennis leagues.

I’m unaware if ESPN has fantasy tennis leagues.

Three trillion beings across seven planets play fantasy baseball through ESPN’s website. OK, I made that up, but still, impressive right? And while I don’t know about fantasy baseball’s galactic reach, we do know for certain that the number of fantasy baseball players is in the tens of millions. Come at us, advertisers!

ESPN is the worldwide leader in the sport (or at least we’re led to believe). I’m going to tell you how you can use this fact to beat your friends in the game of fantasy baseball. But first, we need to back peddle just a bit.

I enjoy contemplating the deep strategies of fantasy baseball, which means I’m a hoot at parties. I also like to analyze the strategies with other fantasy baseball…well, analysts. I like to analyze with analysts because I’m an analyzer, OK?

A question I asked the other fun party guys was if it is player player evaluation (Think: best player projections) or strategy (Think: How you manage your fantasy baseball team) that provides the greatest boost to sustained fantasy baseball success. Some great thoughts were shared and the experts agreed that both were important, but were split on which – player evaluation or strategy – got the clear nod. It’s like the old question of which is more important: hitting, pitching, or defense? The answer: Yes.

Although I think player evaluation is vitally important, I think that everyone has equal access to good player evaluation tools, negating much of the competitive advantage you get from player evaluation. So my bias is that strategy plays the largest role in fantasy baseball success, and I believe that the widespread availability of solid player evaluation can actually be used against your opponents. (Now we’re getting to the meat of the post!)

Let me explain. MIllions of fantasy baseball players draft their teams via the ESPN website and few do much research outside of the rankings that ESPN places right in front of their face. They have been assimilated by the Borg. OK, it’s a little harsh to say that millions of guys are mentally unfit to resist mind control from an alien cybernetic collective hive-mind and it’s equally foolish of me to drop a Star Trek reference into this piece, further manifesting my geekery. So let’s just say I was talking about Björn Borg, former Swedish tennis champion.

But it certainly is fair to assume that these millions of fantasy baseball players are influenced by the projections in front of them, explicitly or not, and most of them aren’t thinking about how they are influenced by them. Did Matthew Berry say I should draft Michael Bourn first overall?!? Well, I must submit to my ESPN overlord!

ESPN places a player evaluation tool directly in front of the eyes of millions of fantasy baseball drafters, it significantly influences their drafting behavior, and I’m going to give you a step-by-step guide as to how to use this against your opponents.

STEP 1: Do some research outside of ESPN.

I could have just as easily said do some research outside of your primary fantasy baseball league provider. The point is to do overlay at least two quality sources, for comparing and contrasting.

Take a note of where ESPN (or your provider of choice) is suggesting that players should be drafted. Your league mates will have this information directly in front of them, staring them down, and whether they know it or not, they will be influenced by it. By doing some independent research you are able to spot trends, differences in average draft position, and significant projection differences that they don’t see.

Use that to your advantage.

STEP 2: Have confidence in your own research.

You now have your own research in front of you. The next step is to learn to trust it. You’ll be going against the grain now, which can be difficult. We are intentionally passing on some picks because you feel like ESPN has them ranked too high. You’ll be reaching for some players that you found that ESPN has too low. You’re now off the grid, drafting outside of what is being pushed directly in front of your face.

Your league mates might even be giving you grief at this point, but you are still confident because you know that while everyone is drafting off the data being simply fed to them, you are drafting off data that you’ve researched on your own and compared against the data in front of you.

Remember though that confidence isn’t the same as bluster. Make sure you have a blueprint. Yes, go against the grain, but don’t go against the grain simply to go against the grain. This is a strategic draft plan.

STEP 3: Stay strong.

You’ll be both reaching for players at times and passing on players at times and it can create anxiety to go against the pick that is suggested right in front of you. But defy expectations and stay strong, being confident in your plan.

Don’t panic because the end of a draft can be a valuable time. Stick until the end.

 

ESPN’s player evaluation data is in front of millions of eyeballs and front and center in millions of draft lobbies. It would be foolish to think that we and our league mates aren’t influenced by it. Just remember that it can provide you a clear advantage if you do outside research, strategically formula a plan to go against type, and have the confidence to follow through. Happy drafting.

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Chasing Ribbies

Clave Jones —  March 21, 2013 — 3 Comments
Joe Mauer is a solid run producer despite low home run totals.

Joe Mauer is a solid run producer despite low home run totals.

I want to share three thoughts and one piece of trivia on the subject of runs batted in. Being one fifth or your offensive scoring in standard 5×5 leagues, it’s important that you don’t just scan down RBI leaders sheets, but instead you should give real thought to the factors behind ribbies. 3 thoughts:

Opportunities

Runs batted in is rightly criticized as a statistic because it measures opportunity as much as it measures performance. It can be a tough category to prepare for in fantasy baseball. A RBI depends as much on the context as it does the skill of the hitter. Giancarlo Stanton will hit a lot of solo home runs, getting one RBI, an opportunity missed for more because his teammates won’t be skilled in getting on base in front of him.

But can you draft players that make the most out of the opportunities they have? Said another way, we know the players who knocked in the most runs last year, but just how many should be have expected they knock in, considering the skill of their teammates in being on base for them?

The top two players last year were Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Hamilton. E5 should been expected to get just 61 RBI, but knocked in 107, good for a 1.77 expected to actual ratio. Hamilton was expected for 73, but hit 127. That’s good for a 1.74 ratio.

Thanks to the work of Jason Mitchell and the Baseball Think Factory, we know that in addition to Hamilton and E5, you can count on David Ortiz, Evan Longoria, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton, Alfonso Soriano, Garrett Jones, Alex Gordon and Mike Trout to be near the best at knocking in guys above and beyond what should be expected of them. (Interestingly, had E5 been given the same opportunities as Miggy, he would’ve knocked in 153 runs, while Miggy would’ve tallied just 97 RBI if he had E5′s opportunities. I’m not saying all else is equal, just further illustrating that opportunity matters.)

Inversely, Hunter Pence, Starlin Castro, Adrian Beltre and Hanley Ramirez had solid RBI totals in 2012, but had more blatant opportunity in front of them. Had they hit with the efficiency of E5 their RBI totals would’ve been significantly higher and Starlin Castro was the worst at squandering opportunities.

The takeaway is that some players excel when given the opportunity, while others are less impressive in the same context.

Extra Base Hitters

Often your home run hitters are known as the league’s best RBI guys and this is usually true. But you can tally RBI without hitting homers – it’s all in the extra base hits. Alex Gordon spent the majority of 2012 in the leadoff position, yet he knocked in 72 runners, despite hitting only 14 home runs. That was possible because he had over 50 doubles.

Joe Mauer is similar in that he only hit 10 homers, but he knocked in 85 runs. Martin Prado, Miguel Montero, Starlin Castro, Jason Kipnis, Shin-Soo Choo, Brandon Phillips, and Torii Hunter also posted solid RBI totals despite a lack of serious home runs.  But the real standout in this category is Adrian Gonzalez with 108 RBI despite just 18 home runs.

Be familiar with the doubles leader board because they’ll give you an uptick in RBI, despite potentially hitting in a poor lineup spot for RBI production.

RBI Formula

Speaking of lineup spots, which are the best producers? Well, it’s the middle of the order guys, which is logical as they are the team’s best hitters. This is especially true if the team has some solid on base guys setting the table.

I’ll take this a step forward though and give you a formula you can use to get a rough projection of RBI production, but you’ll need the team’s OBP (Baseball-Reference can give you this) and the individual’s Total Bases (double, triples, etc.).

3 – 4 – 5 Hitters:
(0.7 x Games Played x Team OBP) + (0.3 x Total Bases) + (0.275 x HR) – (0.2 x GP)

6 – 7 – 8 Hitters:
(0.6 x Games Played x Team OBP) + (0.27 x Total Bases) + (0.25 x HR) – (0.2 x GP)

9 – 1 – 2 Hitters:
(0.55 x Games Played x Team OBP) + (0.24 x Total Bases) + (0.225 x HR) – (0.2 x GP)

Obviously, there is no need to go to this amount of trouble just to project RBI, but just reading through this simple formula gives you a sense of the factors at play when talking RBI. How well the team gets on base matters, an individual player’s extra base hits matter, as does position in the lineup. But you could apply this formula at the All Star break and you can get an idea if a player’s second half should track higher or lower in terms of RBI.

 

Now the trivia.

RBI is short for runs batted in so it’s a pet peeve of many to see it pluralized as RBIs or RBI’s, as that would to them be redundant as runs is already plural. But both RBI and RBIs is considered acceptable, pet peeve or not.

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