Archives For Trades

Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Hot Starters to Sell

Will Meadows —  May 23, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

We are well into the fantasy baseball season and there have been many surprises and breakout players through the first seven weeks of the season. Some of these “surprises” will have an expiration date. You wouldn’t drink spoiled milk. Why would you keep a player who has gotten off to a great start but will show a lot of downside, as the summer commences?

The following players numbers look good on the surface but when you dig deeper they will not be able to keep up their current pace. Don’t be fooled into trading for these players from an unscrupulous owner. If you own any of these players, you should trade them now while you can still get exceptional talent in return.

 

Shelby Miller – P

The top pitching prospect going into the season has not disappointed owners. He has more than exceeded expectations. A major regression is coming. Take this opportunity and trade him before he can damage your pitching staff.

Most owners will see his numbers and jump at the chance to land him on their team. I traded him for Troy Tulowitzki, which is outstanding value. I get the best hitting shortstop in the game while my fellow owner gets a very good pitcher but not the great pitcher he thinks he traded for. You should be able to get first or second round value for him right now.

His strand rate before Monday’s start was a ridiculous 87%. This is completely unsustainable. His strand rate now stands at 82.7% after giving up three runs on five hits, while striking out five in Monday’s start. Expect his strand rate to settle into the low to mid 70’s for the remainder of the season.

Monday’s start is very telling. He pitched well but he only threw five innings giving up three runs. You can expect shorter outings for him as the summer heat takes its toll.

Another factor that should worry owners is his workload. Shelby Miller has never thrown more than 150 innings in a professional season, which he accomplished last season. He has already thrown a third of those innings this season and it is not even June.

The Cardinals may limit his innings towards the end of the season. I can’t see them risking his arm especially if they are in the playoff hunt in September. They will want him fresh for a possible postseason appearance.

 

Jean Segura – SS

Before the three homer bonanza from Miguel Cabrera last week, Jean Segura was ranked number one on ESPN’s player rater. Only the most astute owners had even heard of him coming out of spring training.

He is currently hitting .355 with a K/BB ratio of more than 2:1. His average is nowhere near his 2012 minor league average of .304. In reality, I see him hitting closer to .290. His inflated BABIP of .385 is also not sustainable. He will go through prolonged slumps this summer.

Unless he is going the Melky Cabrera route, his power numbers will fall off soon. He currently has seven home runs and his career professional high is ten. Another, unsustainable number.

He plays a scarce offensive position and his speed is legit. He stole fifty bases in 515 at-bats in A-ball. He has already stolen 14 bases and has only been caught twice. This legit stolen base number is what you can sell your prospective trade partner on. There aren’t many players who have fifty stolen base capability.

A lot of owners will shy away from making a deal for him. If you can find a sucker who is in need of stolen bases and average you might land yourself a great deal in return.

 

Manny Machado – 3B

At this point in his career Manny Machado is overrated. He was one of the top sleepers going into this season and was hyped relentlessly in the minors. You might be able to receive more on your ROI (return on investment) than any other player currently ranked in the top fifty fantasy players based on all the hype.

Manny hit .257 and .266 in his first two full seasons as a farm hand with the Orioles. He is hitting a very lofty .318 in the first seven weeks of the season. His .354 BABIP is not going to happen over a full season. It will not be long before he begins a lengthy slump. His average is not sustainable.

You can sell owners on his youth and how his power numbers will only increase from here on out. Make sure you talk about his slugging percentage being at a career high. Let me be the first to tell you that his power numbers are not going to make a huge jump this year. He is on pace to hit fifteen home runs this season.

He is striking out at nearly three times his walk rate. This number will catch up to him soon and no amount of adjustments will be able to compensate for his whiff rate.

He is scoring runs at a prodigious rate, thanks to Adam Jones and the surprising Chris Davis hitting behind him. His run scoring rate should stay consistent, as his current OBP of .351 lines up with what he did in the minors.

One of the owners in your league will jump at the chance to land Machado for their team. You should jump on a premium player with a track record in return.

In Strategy, Trades , ,
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Should you buy low on Gio?

Clave Jones —  May 22, 2013 — 2 Comments
Gio is listening to Kenny Chesney. He's a big fan. Image courtesy of flickr.

Gio is listening to Kenny Chesney. He’s a big fan. Image courtesy of flickr.

Some players have had a rough start to the season. And, since Crackerjacks has a minimum word limit, I’ll even tell you who!

Gio Gonzalez had an ERA of 5 after his first seven trips on the mound. His last two starts have been solid (with the latest being superb), so he’s managed to bring his numbers closer in line to what we have come to expect.

What’s disappointing is that we saw what he was capable of last year, and so far we haven’t seen the Gio we’ve come to know and love.

Reasons for Worry

Gio has been stingy with the long ball over his career. In fact, he gave up just 9 over nearly 200 innings of work last year to lead the National League. If you keep the ball in the yard, you keep runs off the board. Sometimes it’s not complicated.

But what’s complicating things is that he’s given up 5 already, just 50 innings into the season. Last season he had cut his HR/9 in half, so it was due for some regression, but if home runs allowed stay at this high rate his ERA will suffer.

Say your prayers, sprinkle some pixie dust, or offer up whatever voodoo you do, because Gio owners have to hold on to hope that these early home runs are a fluke and not a portent to come. Considering buying low on him if you think his HR levels will bounce back to his career levels. (They will. Just trust me.)

Reasons for Optimism

Gio is struggling with his control. So why is that optimism, you ask? Gio has always struggled with his control. There’s nothing to see here.

From ’09-’11 he walked 4.3 per 9. He is carrying a 4.2 mark this season, which looks like an outlier only because of his 3.4 career best last year. Even walking over 4 batters a game in the past Gio has kept an ERA just over 3. His walks aren’t cause for concern…

…because he’s still striking out over 9 batters per 9. His walk and K numbers don’t indicate at all that Gio is in trouble.

Moving Forward

As I write this Gio has had two solid starts. The window for buying low is closing quickly. While it looks like Gio won’t have the career year he enjoyed last year, there isn’t anything to indicate that he won’t continue to lower his ERA moving forward. Couple that with elite strikeout rates and a fantastic offense behind him that should lead to plenty of WINS, and you have a fantastic fantasy baseball pitcher.

If you have a panicky owner in one of your leagues, then give him a solid offer for Gio. He’s a good buy low candidate. If you are a Gio owner, then sit tight and make sure you don’t give up on him too quickly. You’ll want his K’s later.

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Ask Nash: How Much is too Much for Matt Kemp?

Nash —  May 17, 2013 — 1 Comment
Photo courtesy of Matt Kemp

Photo courtesy of Matt Kemp

Nash,

Looking for some trade advice.

I just traded Nelson Cruz and Shelby Miller for Craig Kimbrel and Zack Greinke which I feel is a great trade for me.

I had someone knocking on my door, offering Matt Kemp for Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller. But since I just traded Shelby Miller, who would you include in that trade?

My pitching staff now looks like this: Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Max Scherzer, Hyun-jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Jhoulys Chacin, Justin Masterson.

Well, you’re right! As good as Shelby Miller and Nelson Cruz are, Craig Kimbrel gives you an ELITE closer that will bolster you in Ks as well. Actually, it’s a great trade if Zack Greinke performs at the top of his game rest of season!

Regarding Matt Kemp, I believe I speak with all the Crackerjacks when I say that you ALWAYS want to add ELITE talent to your team. This is a very good rule of thumb, and it goes along with another rule of thumb, always get the best player in the trade. Unless you play in a VERY deep league, there is always talent in free agency to fill your roster out with.

Kemp was a first round pick for a reason. He possesses 40/40 potential. Now he may be getting further away from his 40 steal potential so maybe 40/30 is more accurate. Also people are talking about his slow start, saying that he may not be be the MVP candidate any longer, and such.

However, elite guys find ways to get their numbers, so if he does make good he is in for a heck of a rest of 2013. Much like owners who are waiting on Josh Hamilton and David Price, you do not want to be the guy that trades away a struggling star to then watch him go on a tear.

I am not saying that guys never come through, Carl Crawford and Tim Lincecum are recent examples of guys that did not make good on their numbers. So it is in fact a risk. However when someone is not asking too much for an elite guy, I think you should always pull the trigger.

Jason Heyward is a fine player when he is healthy and confident, however his career has not been without it’s ups and downs so if the asking price is him and a middle-tier pitcher, you must make the move, no questions asked. It’s really that simple.

As for the other the pitchers you have — any of these arms would be okay to offer: Yu Darvish, Matt Moore, Max Scherzer, Hyun-jin Ryu, Jose Fernandez, Jhoulys Chacin, and Justin Masterson.

That’s to say that I would part with anyone other than the newly-acquired and freshly returned Greinke, Yu Darvish, or Matt Moore. Actually, I’d give up Moore or Darvish, as well. But it would be tougher to give them up, so I’d try to part with the others first. If you can give up one of the other arms you possess, this move should have already been made!

In my opinion pitchers are the best deal sweeteners because you can almost always recoup the loss of stats in free agency, especially if you like to stream.

You can get great streaming tips from Dixon Picks. You can read Will’s past pieces about sleepers. You can read Pleiss I’d Roster That column. Or you can get in touch with any of us for advice on a specific player, or couple of players.

But this trade is a must make. If that’s all you’re giving up, you have to take a chance that you’ll get the best of a struggling star for the rest of the year.

– Nash

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Ask Nash: Trading for Pitching Upgrades

Nash —  May 10, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Richard Fahey.

Photo courtesy of Richard Fahey.

Nash,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question.

My pitching is a mess right now. I have Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada, John Lackey, and a bunch of bums after that. I do have Jered Weaver coming off the DL soon.

My offense is pretty stacked as of right now and as a result, I’m looking to deal an OF for some starting pitching. Right now, I’m looking at these potential deals.

  1. Shin-Soo Choo for Jaime Garcia and Tony Cingrani or Jeremy Hellickson.
  2. Shin-Soo Choo for Clay Buchholz and an undetermined player.
  3. Shane Victorino for Jaime Garcia.

I am willing to deal these guys because I have Nate McLouth to take their spot, and Mark Teixeira coming off of the DL soon.

I am leaning towards the first trade because I need pitching depth. Am I nuts to make this trade? I am not sure what the Reds plan is for Cingrani once Johnny Cueto comes off of the DL, so I am having reservations about it.

Thank you,

Pete

Pete,

The good news is that I would always rather be set on offense and needing help in pitching because it’s usually easier to bolster pitching, and any of these trades will do the trick. I would also be intrigued by the opportunity to grab Cingrani, as he has come on about as hot as anyone could have hoped.

However, I believe Choo is far and away better. So, the opportunity to obtain Garcia and only give up “The Flyin’ Hawaiian might be your best bet. If this were a dynasty league where you would now have Cingrani locked up until he’s 45, then I’d take that trade. BUT, if this is a win now move, you are in a far better situation only losing Victorino.

Regarding Cingrani, he should not be at risk of losing starts once Cueto returns. His danger is more facing an innings limit, as most highly-touted rookies do. Then again, he plays for Dusty Baker, who is about as old school as it gets and may not put Tony C on any sort of innings cap.

Homer Bailey is probably in the most danger in regards to losing some starts when the rotation gets crowded. So, Tony should be safe. Although, one does have to wonder if he can possibly keep this current stat-line up.

IP H ER BB K W ERA WHIP
24  15 7 5 33 2 2.63 0.83

It’s highly unlikely and if he levels off to finish with even solid numbers (3.00-3.25 ERA/1.15-1.35 WHIP) by season’s end, then his best starts are almost assuredly behind him.

With all of that being said, I firmly stand behind my preference to take Garcia for Victorino. You give up a little to upgrade your pitching just enough. With the return of Weaver, your pitching mess will hopefully get cleaned up.

Nash

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Ask Nash: A Second Base Blockbuster

Nash —  May 3, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

NASH!  I have a potential huge trade, I get Robinson Cano for Dustin Pedroia and Matt Moore, I have plenty of pitching, but is this too much for Cano?  

 

The quick response:

I am the biggest Pedroia fan out there, just ask Clave and Dixon, However if you can spare the pitching, then I say pull the trigger, especially if you’re in a keeper league. I think Cano is that much better than Pedroia rest of season, as Robbie should put up MVP-caliber numbers this season.

Nash

The explanation:

Much like last week’s question when the reader was giving up Josh Hamilton for Matt Holliday and Shelby Miller, I am still on the side of wanting the best player in the trade. However Robinson Cano for Dustin Pedroia and Matt Moore is a MUCH tougher trigger to pull than holding onto Hamilton at the sake of netting Holliday and Miller.

Matt Moore is the real deal, right behind guys like Madison Bumgarner and probably in front of Jordan Zimmermann. So if this guy did not specify that he has plenty of pitching I would have asked for his pitching situation. For me, any pitcher is the perfect deal sweetener, whether it be a starter, closer or middle relief guy. Most of the time those stats can be found in free agency or made up by streaming, even with a rising elite pitcher like Matt Moore.

Now if the trade would have been Dustin and Clayton Kershaw, you decline and say, “as if…” circa the mid 90’s.

However we have to look directly at the two second basemen here to really dissect this trade. Pedroia is either 2nd or 3rd at his position. Ian Kinsler may or may not fall in front of him year in and year out, but Cano is undoubtedly the number one guy at the spot. So when dealing with a trade up, you have to truly know what you are getting in return.

Cano is about as durable as they come, while Pedroia will most likely find his way onto the DL at some point. Or even worse he will try to play through a minor injury, compounding the issue and hurting your statline in the process. Pedroia will certainly steal more bases and probably finish with a higher average but Robbie will challenge there more than you think. Cano will easily match or beat Dustin’s run production, and homers he should beat by 10 and RBI won’t even be close, even with Dustin hitting in the 3 spot.

Cano is mashing so far and that Yankees’ lineup is brutal. If, and that is a BIG if, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixiera can come back strong to fill in around Cano, then Cano will really make a run at the AL MVP.

Preseason floor projections for Pedroia and Cano were something around:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

Cano

85

20

90

5

.265

Pedroia

85

15

65

15

.275

Now their ceiling projections were around:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

Cano

110

40

120

10

.300

Pedroia

115

25

95

25

.320

In my opinion is would be about a 10% probability that Dustin would hit his ceiling numbers, even if the pieces around him (Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury) continue to swing good bats and stay healthy (another big if). Cano hitting his ceiling is far more likely.

I just think these two players are at different places in their respective careers. Cano is truly still rising to his top years, and unfortunately for Pedroia, he peaked early. Or rather, unfortunately for Pedroia’s fantasy owners, as they are still hoping for his former MVP self to return.  

As a real baseball player Pedroia still offers so much. But as as a fantasy 2B, he offers much less. This does not mean that he is not the 2nd or 3rd best 2B, just that the disparity between he and the top 2B, Cano, is great enough to need to sweeten the deal to obtain Cano to your fantasy team.

In Ask Nash, Trades , , ,
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Ask Nash: Josh Hamilton’s Struggles

Nash —  April 26, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Patrick Herbert.

Photo courtesy of Patrick Herbert.

Nash,

Are you panicking about Josh Hamilton?  I ask because I am in need of pitching and was offered Matt Holliday and Shelby Miller, pull the trigger?

-Scott

Scott,

I am not panicking of Hamilton, actually the opposite. I am hoping to grab him in a buy low market. Personally, I would not give up Josh Hamilton for Matt Holliday and Shelby Miller. No matter how bad you need pitching, it is not worth it in my opinion.

Now that is not to say that Hamilton does not have a price to me, you just need to make sure you are not trading him out of panic and desperation. Really it is too early in the season for an all out panic on a first, or at worst second round talent like Hamilton. Clearly if someone offers you another first rounder for him you pull the trigger!  However that is not very likely, so we move into the second and third rounder range.

You say you need pitching, so if someone is willing to part with a top tier guy, I hope I don’t need to tell you to take it. Now if someone were to offer you David Price for Hamilton, you need to figure out how badly it hurts you to lose Josh, because Price’s bests start are most certainly ahead of him this season.

If Hamilton is to make some what good on his preseason projected numbers:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

93

37

111

6

.296

 Then he is sure to have a pretty good rest of season, because as it stands he is at:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

9

2

8

0

.222

Over the next five months if any player is going to produce these kind of numbers, it will be Hamilton:

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

86

35

103

6

.307

These are also elite numbers, so we are talking about guys like Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Healthy Albert Pujols and Healthy Troy Tulowitzki. Guys like Matt Kemp, Mike Trout and Ryan Braun offer these numbers plus better steals, of course, and Robinson Cano should be on track to get you these numbers although the homers are a little high and average will be close.

And Giancarlo Stanton will get you the Runs and HRs and maybe steals, but not the RBI and AVG production. The thing of it is, most of these players have started out well, so some of their production is behind them. Just like the hot starts of Adam Jones and Justin Upton have put them as less valuable for a rest of season proposition.

Therefore if you were to take a hitter straight up for Hamilton, you need to get a top level elite bat, or another slow starter 2nd-3rd tier guy and hope they explode! Because otherwise you end up on the wrong end of a sell high buy low deal. Nobody wants to be there.

The point is, when dealing with a struggling star, you need to really understand what he is capable of.  A guy like Hamilton is still VERY capable at hitting is projected totals, and with a month behind us, that is a value amount of output!  Same as Albert Pujols last season, guys with their track records and ability can be relied upon!


Nash

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Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Dealing With Elite Players

Michael Dixon —  April 16, 2013 — 7 Comments

Writer’s Note: Monday was obviously a really strange and sad day for everyone. What happened in Boston was an absolute tragedy, and our thoughts and prayers are with everyone there. Certainly they go out to those who had loved ones killed or wounded, but everyone who experienced that is in our thoughts and prayers. On a personal note, some very good friends of mine live in Boston and while I didn’t know this at the time, my uncle’s wife was actually running in the Boston Marathon. Fortunately for me, everyone that I know there came away physically unscathed. If anyone who wasn’t so fortunate is reading this (unlikely, I know), please know that everyone involved with this site is sending you and your loved ones nothing but our best wishes. 

Having said that, different people deal with tragedies in different ways. Some people block things like sports (and fantasy sports) from their lives, and I completely understand and respect that. As much as we all love sports, they do need to be placed in their proper perspective at times, and this is certainly one of them.

But personally, I’ve always tried to get through days like this by allowing myself to focus on other things. We at the site know that there are a lot of people out there who do things similarly. So we’re going to keep writing and posting stuff for you, today even more than most.

If today is your first exposure to our site, welcome aboard. Likewise, if you’re familiar with us, welcome back. As always, feel free to comment in any way that you see fit and please look back at some of our posts from previous days.

Again, everyone in Boston is in our thoughts and prayers. It’s not only one of the best sport’s towns in the country, but also one of the best cities period. I’ve had the chance to visit my friends there a few times since they moved there a few years ago, and seeing how well Bostonians rushed to help one another was incredible, but not at all surprising. 

Thank you from all of us.

 

 

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Nash, Clave, and I are all in a league together. A few of us are pretty experienced, while most of the players started fantasy baseball in 2011 or 2012. One guy who started in 2012 had a phenomenal year a season ago, finishing in fourth place, beating some pretty experienced players along the way, including one of us — I won’t say who, but his name rhymes with Cash. Anyway, this guy was in realistic contention for the title until the season’s last few weeks. The three of us were impressed.

Well, that same guy let some of his inexperience show and made a really bad trade over the weekend. The kind of trade that once he made it, he instantly regretted it (saying so himself), and probably hoped it would get vetoed. No such luck. Take a look for yourself.

The intricacies of that league actually make that trade a little worse than it looks (hard to believe, I know). But this does bring up something that happens a lot.

If you removed Kendrick, Middlebrooks, Cabrera, and Wilson from that trade, I still would not have taken that move. Hosmer, Kipnis, Sandoval, and Darvish are good players, but they’re not Fielder. Fielder is an elite player, and those aren’t replaced by spare parts, even if they are very good.

Let’s detour a little bit and talk about the NBA. Think about some of the recent NBA champions.While it takes more than one great player for a team to win a championship, how many championship teams have their been who won without a Top-10 (or better) player? Not many. You probably have to go back to the 2004 Pistons to find the last one, and more than 20 years before that. It’s not a common occurrence  You need a good team, but you also need a star to make up for a lot of the team’s shortcomings. 

Fantasy baseball is the exact same way. With pitchers, you can focus a little bit more on quantity, although Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw make up for a lot, you can win a fantasy championship without an elite arm, you just have to have several good ones. But winning a championship, especially in a roto league, without an elite hitter? I don’t like your chances. Head-to-head is a little different, especially if you’re good at streaming, but the overall point doesn’t change much.

Now, there are some players who are genuine contributors in all categories, like Mike Trout, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, and Andrew McCutchen. But using some 2012 stats, I want to show you guys something using Miguel Cabrera as an example. Just a reminder, I’d like to show all of you guys what Miggy did in the five standard offensive categories used in fantasy baseball.

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
205/622  109 44 139 4 .330

In 2012, Clave, Nash, and I decided to run a standard league with us and seven readers. For those of you unfamiliar, a standard league uses runs, home runs, RBI, SB, and batting average, with 13 active offensive spots (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT). These were the total numbers of the league leaders in each of the five categories.

R HR RBI SB AVG
1127 324 1139 244 .277

Now, we talk a lot about setting goals and generally speaking, trying to be third in each category is a goal. But for a moment, let’s say you were shooting for the top spot in each offensive category. These are the average numbers that you would need from each player to do that in 2012 (rounding up in every case):

R HR RBI SB AVG
87 25 88 19 .277

Now, go back and look at Cabrera’s numbers. You are well ahead of pace in four of the five categories. Now, let’s have a gander at the 2012 numbers of Rajai Davis who is generally speaking, pretty poor in all categories other than stolen bases.

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
115/447 64 8 43 46 .257

And because I want to be a nice guy, I am going to go ahead and combine those numbers for you.

Total:

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
320/1069 173 52 182 50 .299

On average

H/AB R HR RBI SB AVG
320/1069 87 26 91 25 .299

So, if you were starting with those two alone in 2012, you would be on (or above) pace to win every single offensive category. Now, remember that Davis is at best a late-round pick, so you could have filled your roster with much better players before drafting or signing Davis for the steals.

That’s what a superstar player does. And while it’s true that a lot of good players minus Miggy can put up good numbers, you can’t depend on them like you can with Cabrera. If you’re going with good players, you’re going to have one or two that disappoint every year, even if only slightly. Miggy’s an elite player and would anyone be remotely surprised if he repeated his 2012 stats in 2013? Even if he didn’t, how much of a drop is he going to have? With elite hitters, you have an elite worst case scenario, and that’s just hard to overcome.

Now, if you have an elite hitter, he’s going to be coveted. You’ve probably received trade offers for them and if not, you’re going to throughout the year. So, here’s the question. Who are the elite hitters, and what do you do if you receive an offer for them? Well, here’s part one of that question.

Dixon’s Elite Hitters for 2013

  1. Ryan Braun
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Mike Trout
  4. Robinson Cano
  5. Andrew McCutchen
  6. Matt Kemp
  7. Albert Pujols
  8. Carlos Gonzalez
  9. Joey Votto
  10. Prince Fielder

With some arm twisting, I might move that order around a little bit and on a good day, I could probably be talked in to Justin Upton and Buster Posey, but that’s it. I can’t count on a full season of dominant production from any other hitter in the league.

So then, here’s part 2. What do you do if you receive a trade offer for them?

The answer is really quite simple. If you have one of those players and the trade would not involve you receiving another in return, it’s a very easy decline. Those guys will make up for a lot of deficiencies on your team and will do so reliably.

The Heat wouldn’t trade LeBron James for two very good players and the same logic applies in fantasy baseball. Yes, you need a balanced team to win a championship, but you won’t find that balance without at least one elite hitter. If you get one, don’t let him go unless you get one back, you will lose the trade and in turn, someone else will win the league.

In Drafting, Miscellany, Trades , , , ,
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Finding Trading Partners

Eric Pleiss —  March 12, 2013 — Leave a comment
There is an art to getting a fair "price" in trades. Photo by Alex Barrett.

There is an art to getting a fair “price” in trades. Photo by Alex Barrett.

10 months ago Clave wrote an interesting article about seeking fantasy trading partners, and even used a pun in the title, which is worth a significant amount of bonus points.  This post will build off of that post such that I assume you will not be attempting to find a trading partner while simultaneously alienating the other owners in your league.

Drafting well is the best way to build a strong team for fantasy baseball 2013, but even the best draft classes can turn into bad fantasy teams after a couple of injuries, slumps, or unexpected changes in playing time.  Even if you drafted well and your team is still performing, you still will want to find a ways to make your team better.

You might be able to find a player or two on the waiver-wire that can contribute to your team, but these players will generally only make marginal impacts, or will have value only for a limited amount of time (such as an injury replacement).  The best way to improve your team once the season has started is through trades.  You have the ability to deal from a position of strength to acquire high-impact players in the area(s) your team needs help most.

Finding a trading partner will generally require a little bit more effort than putting a post on the league message board telling the other owners that you have a Chris Sale for sale and he will cost you a David Price or a Brad Penny.  To help you get started, here are three ways to find trading partners in your fantasy baseball league.

  1. Know What You Are Looking For (Do your homework) – This seems pretty straight forward, but have a specific type of return in mind before you go out hunting for trading partners.  If your team is at the bottom of the roto-rankings for stolen bases you need to target speedy players on teams that have managers that are aggressive on the base paths.  This does not mean that you should only target players with high stolen base totals, you want to target players that WILL have high stolen base totals, or who will at least get a lot of attempts.  This means finding fast players, maybe off to a slow start, with managers who are particularly aggressive on the base paths.  This will require a little bit of extra work on your part, but maybe you are the lucky owner than found Rajai Davis in 2012 with only 3 stolen bases at the end of April, who went on to steal 46 bases and lead the MLB in stolen base attempts (59, five more than Mike Trout).
  2. Network (Talk about trades) – A lot of the groundwork on a trade happens just by talking with other owners.  Letting other owners know you want to make a trade or that you are willing to talk about a trade needs to go beyond posting on the league message board.  Identify a couple of teams that have specific weaknesses and then talk with the other owners about their teams, try and understand what they like and dislike about their own teams, and then talk about your team as it relates to theirs.  If you can get them thinking about trades before you have even made an offer you are one step ahead.
  3. Be Flexible (Negotiate) – A lot of the trades you end up with are going to look different from what you thought when you first decided to go make a trade.  You might have to be willing to give a little more than you initially wanted in order to get a little extra on the back end.  Remember that your initial trade offer should not be so low to offend the good-sense of the other owner, but it certainly should not be your best offer. Most trades that I end up finalizing contain at least two rounds of back and forth.  And that’s what you should be looking for with your initial offer, it should be just good enough to initiate a counter-offer from the other side (Obviously, a lot of this negotiating can happen during your networking with other owners and you might be able to put together the deal in one trade based upon what you’ve previously agreed upon).  Let them tell you by way of the counter-offer how they value your players and their own, then use that information to make subsequent trade offers.  What you are seeking here is a win-win scenario.  Both parties should walk away from the trade feeling that they made their team better.

Working within this framework you will not only benefit from a better team, but you will have identified yourself as a fantasy owner willing to engage in thoughtful trade discourse and you will find yourself with additional trade opportunities in the future.

In How To, Strategy, Trades , , , , , , ,
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Don’t Panic!

Eric Pleiss —  March 1, 2013 — Leave a comment
You won't be able to trade a Pujols for a Plouffe. Image courtesy of Flickr.

You won’t be able to trade a Pujols for a Plouffe. Image courtesy of Flickr.

You just had the best draft in the history of Fantasy Baseball, better than anything Daniel Okrent could ever have dreamed up.  Then it happens, your team fails to live up to your lofty expectations.  Three weeks into the season and you are in last place in the league and it seems like each and every one of your top players is having a bad year, meanwhile, something named Trevor Plouffe is leading the American League in Home Runs and RBIs and he only cost a dollar at the tail end of the draft!  The sky is falling, Chicken Little!

Except it isn’t.  As Baseball Prospectus’ Derek Carty wrote in 2011, it takes time for player stats to stabilize.  For areas where a player’s true talent shows itself quickest, like strikeout rate, it still takes more than 30 games for those stats to normalize.  So if you have started freaking out and the calendar still reads April up at the top, relax!  This is not a time to panic, this is the time to destroy your lesser opponents.  Hot players will cool off, and cold players will heat up, and knowing how to identify these types of players and how to value them, will allow you to steal from the other teams in your league.

Even the newest players to Fantasy Baseball understand that the Major League season is a grind.  162 game is a long time and players are going to have ups and downs along the way.  But when your opponents have been sitting around for a month and their team is not producing like they expected, they are going to start getting worried.   You can exploit their insecurity and use this as an opportunity to pluck some talent off of their team for a reduced rate.

Last April, Albert Pujols was hitting just .217/.265/.304 and had no home runs, and just 8 extra base hits in almost 100 plate appearances.  Analysts everywhere were falling over themselves to tell anyone who would listen that Pujols was finally over the hill, and that he must have used up all of his magic in Saint Louis.  In May Pujols picked up a little bit, managed to hit some home runs and drive in some runs, but he was slugging just over .400 and his OBP was still below .300.  At this point in the year Pujols had played 51 games, almost a third of a season, and was hitting .243.  If Fantasy GMs were not ready to move Pujols for anything resembling value after April, by the end of May Pujols was looking downright anemic, and ripe for the picking.  Starting June 1, Pujols hit .307/.370/.571.  Those numbers look a lot more like his career norms than what he did in the early part of the season.

Now, you’re not going to be able to trade any slug on your team for Albert Pujols.  What you need to do is identify those players on your team that are having a great start to the year.  Mabye Mark Teixeira is hitting like the MVP runner-up he was in 2009 rather than the .251/.332/.475 he hit a year ago.  Teixeira is a guy you can expect to regress the opposite direction, coming back down to the numbers he put up recently, so his value will be as high as it is likely to be for the rest of the year.  A high performing player like Teixeira will look pretty good to a guy with a struggling first basemen of their own. Not only are they receiving a guy that’s currently putting up good numbers for a guy who isn’t, but Teixeira is a name they recognize and trust, despite the fact that Tex has been trending down for three years in a row and probably won’t keep things going into the dog-days of August.

If you can make a trade like this, not only are you going to get the lion share of Pujos’ value squeezed into the remaining part of the year, but you’re also selling high on a mid-value player unlikely to sustain his success.

Not everyone slumping through the first 50 games is going to rebound and turn into Albert Pujols, sometimes the Adam Dunn that fell off the earth in the first half of 2011 is going to be the same dead weight in the 2nd half of the season that he was in the first. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try to identify these players and try and lure them away from other owners with the promise of a marginal player having the best two-month stretch of his life.

So don’t panic, but if you do, here is how to panic well during your draft.

In Strategy, Trades , , , , , , , ,
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Dispelling the Player Rater Myth

Nash —  August 27, 2012 — Leave a comment

Elvis Andrus

A a while back I was offered Elvis Andrus straight up for Jose Reyes.  I laughed at such an offer and proceeded to tell my dear friend that “I should punch your nuts for offering me this trade…”

Of course, that was a bit of hyperbole, as it is not the worst offer I have ever seen. Then the owner responded “…but Andrus is ranked better on our site’s player rater and you should account for future seasons” (this is a keeper league).

The owner then asked all of Twitter who they would have taken and it came back as 4 out of 6 other experts choosing team Andrus. After that, I felt compelled to dispel his misguided logic in trying to get me to take this trade. Where he went wrong:

  1. Player rater is not king.
  2. Don’t always error on planning for the future in keeper leagues

First, let’s dissect the player rater. The player is a great tool, however it is not the Bible, or some magic eight ball.

The player rater tells you how value a play has been, not how valuable they will be going forward.  At the end of the season a player rater is a great way to see who were the best players over the course of the season.  While during the season they also can be a very good tool to see just how well they are doing.  However, when it comes down to a late season push you have no idea if guys will maintain their pace.  In fact, it is wiser to trust the old saying, “trust the numbers on the back of the baseball card.”

The reality is that guys more often than not will level off.  Look at Josh Hamilton. After his torrid start people were talking about him hitting 55-60 home runs.  Now he is projected to finish with 45, which is still a great season but not out of the world like if he had kept up his pace.  Likewise, players like Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez will typically come through and get close to their projections, barring injury. So to take the RED HOT Elvis Andrus for the then average Jose Reyes would have been counter productive in making a late season push.

Second, the argument that Elvis is the better long term option is great and probably accurate if you are thinking beyond just next year.  But a team that is competing this year should not be thinking about sacrificing this year for a better shot next year.  A bird in the hand is better than 2 in the bush, my grammy always said.  There is no better time to win than your current season, my friends!

Luckily, since I declined this trade Andrus has leveled off a bit. His line since the offer: 111 ABs 13-0-10-3-.297-.350 OBP

Whereas Reyes has picked up the pace: 21-4-15-7-.345-.397 OBP in 116 at bats.

Just remember, the player rater is based on what players have done, not a ranking of how they will continue to produce and if you have a chance to win this season, then focus on this season!

In Miscellany, Projections, Trades , , , ,
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