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Fantasy Baseball Time Travel: 2014′s First Round Draft Picks

Clave Jones —  May 21, 2013 — Leave a comment
Could Bryce Harper go #1 overall next year?

Could Bryce Harper go #1 overall next year?

I’m in one league where less than an month into the season and a couple of owners blew up their teams. I guess they couldn’t take the poor performance of their top draft picks.

Well, if those owners are already looking ahead to next’s year’s draft, then let’s look with them.  Based upon the play of this April, who would be the first round picks next year?

Now before some joker with poor reading comprehension comments on how it’s only April and much too early to think about next year’s draft, we all realize this is for fun, right? Just like those owners shouldn’t have blown up their teams after just one month, it’s silly to be thinking about next year’s draft after just one month.

Let’s do it anyway!

Realizing that drafts were different, I’ll just list 15 guys who were the odd’s on bets to be a first round pick in most leagues. We’ll give them a pass / fail grade, then jump forward to the 15 guys whose present performance is laying claim to a first round draft pick in 2014.

Miguel Cabrera gets a passing grade for certain. He went #1 overall in lots of drafts and is proving why in that he’s following up a Triple Crown season with even stronger numbers this season.

Ryan Braun isn’t having a career year, but owners should hardly be disappointed with much, unless they are fixated on his having just two stolen bases.

Mike Trout got off to a slow start and those who love to say ‘told you so’ were more than happy to decry a sophomore slump. Well, he warmed up quickly and proved that the critics spoke too soon.

Robinson Cano has once again been unspectacularly spectacular. He’s proven that he was worthy of a top pick by once again hitting for power and average.

Andrew McCutchen has seen his average free fall this year, while his homers and steals have been respectable. Owners who drafted him high hoping for an increase on his 2012 success may be wishing they took another pick.

Matt Kemp has been horrible. His average is slowly climbing as are his steals but a single home run is not first round material, particularly not for someone who has 40/40 potential.

Joey Votto loves to take long walks, something I’ve written about before. His average is superb and he’s starting to swing away a bit, but you hope for more homers and RBI from a first round pick.

Albert Pujols has seen his slow starts last longer and longer. At some point they will simply last all season. I think he’s already showing that he doesn’t belong in first round conversation much longer.

Carlos Gonzalez already has 30 runs, is hitting for power and stealing bases, while doing everything else that you hope a first round pick will do. I have to imagine his owners are pleased thus far.

Prince Fielder was probably drafted late in round one if he didn’t slide into the early second. Well, he’s performed like a late first round pick, so I can’t imagine anyone is displeased.

Troy Tulowitzki has been on the field all season and played like we all know he can play. He’s a first round pick if healthy.

Justin Verlander was most likely a second round pick, but I did hear of a few guys going against the grain to grab a pitcher first. I’m sure they are pleased with his performance thus far.

Buster Posey was likewise a probably second round pick, although his slow start would be hard=pressed to justify even that thus far. But he’s thawing out.

David Wright was snatched up by some guys who like to grab thin positions early. He’s rewarded them with solid all-around play.

Giancarlo Stanton has 50 homer potential so he snuck into the first round in a lot of drafts. So far it’s been an absolutely wasted pick.

Shockingly, the first round has held up quite well, considering that on average a full 40% of first rounders fail to return first round value. Maybe this is a year that we see that number dip and see owners rewarded for their early pick. With that in mind, let’s list out 14 for 2014, just for fun.

  1. Miguel Cabrera: Based upon his history and early season numbers, there is little reason not to look at him early in 2014.
  2. Ryan Braun: While it looks like his steals will tumble somewhat, he’s still got that track record you like in the first round.
  3. Justin Upton: He’s flashed MVP before and it looks like his age plus potential will rocket him up draft charts.
  4. Bryce Harper: He’s showing insane power at a freakishly early age. Why wouldn’t you draft him early in 2014?
  5. Mike Trout: Maybe his slow start will give drafters pause. But it looks like there is little doubt that he’ll be drafted high in 2014.
  6. Carlos Gonzalez: While he is hitting for average while flashing power and speed, he’ll be a solid #1 again.
  7. Robinson Cano: There will be so much contract chatter that folks will grow sick off hearing about him. Still, they’d be nuts not to draft him.
  8. Paul Goldschmidt: Why not? He’s now had plenty at bats to prove he’s for real. He takes the spot Pujols used to occupy as an elite first baseman.
  9. Evan Longoria: He’s right now putting together the season that folks knew he could. It’s not unimaginable he’ll be the second third baseman off the board.
  10. David Wright: One more year before his speed goes in decline and Manny Machado is making him look like yesterday’s news. But never underestimate the masses drafting a solid track record in the first round.
  11. Adam Jones: He goes a little under the radar, but he’s following up a break-out season with another gem. His stock will rise.
  12. Matt Kemp: His horrible start will scare off many, but the wise will realize that he’ll be a steal in this slot.
  13. Andrew McCutchen: Many will say his 2012 was a career year. Others will draft for a repeat in 2014.
  14. Troy Tulowitzki: It was hard not putting Joey Votto in this spot (or even Anthony Rizzo), but if Votto hits under 25 homers, folks will go for the thin SS position, provided Tulo stays on the field.

It’s obviously too early to tell, but is there anyone I missed that you think will be a first rounder in 2014? Let us know via Twitter or in the comments.

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Why I’m Staying Away from Josh Hamilton

Eric Pleiss —  March 19, 2013 — 1 Comment
Is the injury risk reason to stay away from Hamilton? Photo courtesy of Aggie.

Is the injury risk reason to stay away from Hamilton? Photo courtesy of Aggie.

A friend of mine was prepping for a draft of his own and asked me, “What is the thinking on taking multiple guys from the same team? I ask because I see Josh Hamilton is a Free Agent.”* I did not bother to answer that question (which probably deserves a post of its own), instead I gave him a reason why I would stay away from Hamilton.

Anaheim is a pretty tough place to hit, and with Hamilton’s history of injuries, you will need to not only watch your lineup everyday because he will get a lot of off days, but you will need to have a pretty decent replacement player for him that is going to get one-sixth of Jamilton’s starts. Risky for a guy that’s going in the high rounds of most drafts.

Now, if you are going to watch your lineup closely, and you think you can find someone to get value in those once a week spots, then he is worth taking because he will provide a ton of value while he is on the field, and the extra value you gain by swapping in the other player once a week essentially increases the value of your roster spot. But I figure I usually have enough to worry about that I do not want to try and predict and find his off days every week, so I avoid that kind of stuff.

Plus when games start at noon there are days I have not even thought about lineups and then you just lose plate appearances because you did not pay enough attention to your roster. Sometimes those off days are surprises, so unless you are checking rosters an hour before first pitch, you are out of luck.

What is more, if Hamilton goes down with a big injury or misses extended time, now you have drafted a guy with a top pick and are getting only mid-round returns.

Hamilton is all talent, but a ton of risk and a lot of work for a fantasy owner.

R HR RBI SB AVG
Josh Hamilton 93 37 111 6 0.286

 

*He already has Albert Pujols has one of his keepers, and was a little leery of having two players from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

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Stressed over your First Round pick? You can relax.

Clave Jones —  March 18, 2013 — 2 Comments
Matt Kemp was a trendy #1 overall selection last year, but it was actually Mike Trout who returned fantasy best value. Photo courtesy of Sam Galvez.

Matt Kemp was a trendy #1 overall selection last year, but it was actually Mike Trout who returned fantasy best value. Photo courtesy of Sam Galvez.

My grammie would always say, “If I’ve heard that once, I’ve heard that a 100 times.” And you’re going to trust the truth of something you’ve heard a hundred times, am I right?

Well, I’ve heard a hundred times that fantasy baseball leagues are won or lost in the first round. But that’s nonsense.

Don’t get me wrong, you don’t want to intentionally tank your first round pick by drafting Yunel Escobar, but there isn’t reason to lose sleep over the pick either. I drafted Troy Tulowitzski in the first round last year and went on to win my very competitive league. You grab a quick substitute that helps you in a category that’s close, you maybe make a quick trade, you speculate on who may be on the upswing, you move a guy or two around, and – voila! – you’re back in the saddle. I’m not saying it’s fun to piece together a position when you lose someone that you’re expecting to be such a big cog, but it’s a fact of fantasy baseball that it can be done.

And you may need to do it more than you realize. Take this sample 1st Round from 2012:

Overall Pick Player
1 Albert Pujols, LAA, 1B
2 Miguel Cabrera, Det, 1B
3 Matt Kemp, LAD, OF
4 Jose Bautista, Tor, 3B, OF
5 Troy Tulowitzki, Col, SS
6 Ryan Braun, Mil, OF
7 Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos, OF
8 Justin Upton, Ari, OF
9 Robinson Cano, NYY, 2B
10 Joey Votto, Cin, 1B
11 Adrian Gonzalez, Bos, 1B
12 Ian Kinsler, Tex, 2B

Some might pick nits on a player here and there, but considering this was a real National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) draft, we can all agree that’s it’s pretty a pretty fair representation.

And if you look closely you’ll see that only Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, and Robinson Cano returned true first round value, a whopping 25% success rate. A shocking number placed into context of all the fantasy baseball writing that tells you the sole function of your first round pick is to minimize risk. Do fantasy baseball drafters simply love risky picks or are we simply in a risky business?

Taking this further, 7 years of research has shown that we get our first round selections correct roughly only 40% of the time, which isn’t surprising because between 44% and 51% of MLB players lose time due to injuries, suspensions, demotions, etc. over the course of a season. It’s a tough business folks.

A few other fun tidbits the research has shown:

  • Over the last decade or so, two thirds of Top 15 players weren’t in the Top 15 the next year. 
  • As stated above, there is a great deal of turnover in the first round, year-over-year.
  • First time first rounders only repeat 15% of the time.
  • Even established superstars are not guaranteed to repeat.

Wow, that’s all very depressing and started by saying you could relax over your first round pick!

Just do your homework, make a reasoned choice, but know that there are no guarantees. Nash gave a good primer on this year’s first round and it won’t be free of risk either. Give it a read and peek at our Draft Kit where share a little risk assessment tool.

But relax. A $40 player can slam into a wall like a $4 player, but is ten times harder to replace. But replace him you can. I wrote this to let you know that – YES – your first rounder is important, but don’t let it tie you in knots. Things don’t always pan out the way you’d hope, but that won’t mean your season is lost.

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Fantasy Baseball 2013: Overrated Players, Underrated Value

Michael Dixon —  March 11, 2013 — 1 Comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison

Like every other fantasy baseball player in the weeks before the draft(s), I often find myself trying to figure something out. How do I get my hands on a good sleeper? If it’s an auction, how do I get good value from a player I paid $5 or less for? If it’s a snake draft, how do I get my hands on a valuable player in the late rounds? 

There are plenty of secrets and honestly, they’re all a little hit-or-miss. Still, there’s a group of players that’s can be something of a goldmine, and you don’t even need to know about the farm systems of any team, or any Spring Training under-the-radar studs. Nope, quite the opposite. The group of under-the-radar guys I’m talking about are players generally considered overrated, or at least overpaid by their real team.

You see, people often associate the word “overrated” with “terrible,” which is really a false association. Take a step outside of baseball for a moment. I always considered Brett Favre to be an overrated quarterback, but only against people who talked about him as one of the best quarterbacks ever, if not the best quarterback ever. I just never saw that in him. That doesn’t mean that he wasn’t one of the best going, or doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. I just didn’t think he belonged in the same discussions as quarterbacks like Joe Montana, John Elway, Roger Staubach, Johnny Unitas, and a few others.

Favre is actually an interesting example. While plenty of people feel the way I do, plenty others do continue to put him in that class. But today, I am talking about players that are seen as overrated/overpaid by just about everyone. Jumping back into the world of fantasy baseball, there are a few relevant examples headed into 2013.

Take someone like Alfonso Soriano. Is anyone really going to argue that he’s worth anywhere near as much as he’s being paid? I would doubt it. The Cubs signed him to a huge deal after a 40-40 season, who had gone 30-30 in three of the previous four years, missing 40-40 by home run in one of those campaigns. Well, 2006 might as well be 1906 now. In 2013, we all know that he’s overrated and paid way too much money.

So, fantasy owners get it stuck in their heads that Soriano isn’t any good. How valuable can a guy be if he’s making $18 million for a team that lost 100 games? It’s quite the stigma, no doubt. But Soriano’s home run total (32) was tied for 14th in the league, while his RBI total (108) was tied for seventh.

Sure, his .262 average left a lot to be desired, but that’s not the same drain that Adam Dunn provided with his whopping .204 clip. Curtis Granderson slugged 43 homers with a .232 average, while Josh Reddick and Ike Davis each equaled Soriano’s 32 homers, coming in at .242 and .247, respectively. None of those players met Fonzie’s RBI total and only Granderson even got to 100. That’s not to say they weren’t better in other areas but overall, they were no more valuable than Soriano was. But Soriano is pretty well accepted as an overrated player and is certainly overpaid.

Just remember that in fantasy, nothing matters but the numbers. Those guys, notably Davis and Reddick might have brighter futures, but that doesn’t mean they’ll be more valuable in 2013.

Two other good examples of this are Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. Both have battled some injuries over the last few years and like just about everyone else associated with the 2011 and/or 2012 Red Sox, are a touch overrated. Also, like just about everyone associated with those two Boston teams, there’s a stigma attached to them.

That’s where you want to step in. So many fantasy players associate those Red Sox teams as a joke that they will be really hesitant to touch anyone from those teams. That may seem ridiculous, but that kind of thing happens every year. Owners are afraid to touch players associated with under-achieving, big market teams. Crawford under-performed, while both dealt with injuries, so they deserve some blame, but not as much as they’ll get in your draft rooms.

Let’s take a look at our Draft Kit and see what you can expect from an outfield of Soriano, Ellsbury, and Crawford in 2013.

H AB R HR RBI SB AVG
Alfonso Soriano 139 541 72 26 83 5 .257
Jacoby Ellsbury 175 600 93 15 62 35 .292
Carl Crawford 160 571 79 11 59 29 .280
Totals 474  1712  244  52  204  69  .277

Obviously those numbers pale in comparison to what something like Mike Trout, Matt Kemp, and Ryan Braun would get you, but the Soriano/Ellsbury/Crawford outfield is realistic. A Trout/Kemp/Braun outfield can only be attained if you’re a very skilled traded, or are in about a two-team league. Also remember one more perk about the overrated outfield. That’s not only a realistic assortment, but if you’re using them as your outfielders, you can use early round picks on some top of the line infielders, catchers, or pitchers. Continue Reading…

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What I like About Fantasy Baseball

Michael Dixon —  February 22, 2013 — Leave a comment
Fantasy baseball is beginning again. Let's celebrate! Photo courtesy of M. Seamans.

Fantasy baseball is beginning again. Let’s celebrate! Photo courtesy of M. Seamans.

Okay, I admit it, fantasy baseball has me completely hooked.

That’s probably not much of an admission, since you’re either familiar with me and the site, or you’ve stumbled onto a fantasy baseball site and probably deduced that someone writing about fantasy baseball is probably a fan. Still, it did need to be said.

As the new year is here and spring training is now in full flight, I figured I’d take some time to tell you just what I like about fantasy baseball. To start that, a little autobiographical information.

 

About me

I was born in San Francisco, California on July 30, 1985….Okay, this is going to be long enough, so we don’t need to go that far back. Here we go.

Unlike Nash and Clave, the fellow founders of this site, I am a writer. That’s not to take anything away from them and their skills at all, but they have other jobs, I don’t. If I’m not writing about fantasy baseball here, I’m writing for my local newspaper.

In the summer of 2011, I took a job with an online sports writing company. It’s not a big secret or anything, but I don’t want to name them here because I don’t want people to mistake this as sour grapes. It’s far from it.

As a matter of fact, I really enjoyed that job, I just ended up writing about similar stuff every day, often times more than once per day. Now, make no mistake, I am not claiming that this was a grueling job, it wasn’t, but it got a little monotonous at times. Towards the end, I really didn’t enjoy writing for anything or anyone that much. Why was that? I’ll tell you that I’m as big a sports fan as anyone you will ever meet, but it can get a little stale, especially when writing about sports that play several times per week (ie: every sport but football), or sports that play once a week with a lot of time in between games (ie: football).

It was towards the end of my tenure there that Clave came up with the idea for this site. We all contribute evenly but make no mistake, this site is his brainchild and he needs to be commended for that. While I agreed to it, I have to admit that I wasn’t very enthused about writing some more, especially about sports. But this site’s been up and running for more than a year and I can wholeheartedly say that I not only have no regrets about agreeing to write for this site, but I am significantly more enthused towards the process of this than I was a year ago at this time.

So, what changed? Well, I enjoy working with Clave, Nash, and our new (and great) additions, Mims and Will, very much. But honestly, there’s a little more.

 

What do I love about fantasy baseball?

Well, it combines the best elements of covering every sport. You have the urgency of a sport like football, there is always advice to give. Real baseball doesn’t really have that until after the trade deadline, if even that early. Perfect example: The 2012 World Series matched the Tigers and Giants, two teams who were each 10-10 after 20 games. I know that there wasn’t any talk in San Francisco about dumping Buster Posey, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgarner. While I wasn’t there so I can’t say for certain, I doubt that there was ever talk of dumping Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Justin Verlander in Detroit, either. Just a hunch.

But in fantasy baseball, there is significantly more urgency. If someone’s stars get off to a bad start, there’s almost always some thought about dumping them. So, even if the advice is to “Chill out and remember that it’s a 162-game season,” there is always something to be reacting to, even in a sport where things don’t seem to matter much day-to-day, like baseball.

There are other elements, too. Clave is right, he and I have never met in person yet we still consider each other good friends. I don’t see Nash more than once or twice a year, but I still consider him a good friend, as well. These were friendships started in many ways through fantasy baseball.

But I’ve played other fantasy sports with both, what makes fantasy baseball stand out?

 

How fantasy baseball is different than other fantasy sports

I need to get something off of my chest first. Recall the 2012 AL MVP Debate. Mike Trout dominating the new stats vs. Miguel Cabrera dominating the traditional stats, notably the Triple Crown ones. Not only did everyone have an opinion, but those who favored Trout were not only less than impressed by the arguments in Cabrera’s favor, but they actually made it seem as though those achievements were negatives. The reverse was true with Cabrera backers to Trout’s stats.

I say that because I actually see similarities with fantasy sports people. Yes, fantasy baseball is my favorite fantasy sport. No, it does not mean fantasy football is awful. As a matter of fact, I enjoy fantasy football, I just prefer baseball. I’d also prefer to drive a Mercedes Benz, but it doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with my Honda Civic.

Okay, now that that’s out of the way, I love the day-to-day grind of fantasy baseball. I think it does a good job of separating the really devoted players to those who just play for the sake of playing.

I admit that this is a double-edged-sword, as I get frustrated with people who check out after a few months if their team isn’t any good. I’m not talking about people who make a mistake and forget to set their lineup for a day (I am the person who forgot to activate Matt Cain, my favorite player on my favorite team, when he threw a perfect game). But I like that at least at the top of most leagues, you’re competing with very serious players. If someone wins a fantasy baseball league, he’s a good owner, period. That’s not necessarily true in other sports.

You can’t be a bad owner but be successful in fantasy baseball. Granted, it doesn’t need to be a massive time commitment, but you do need to check your lineup every day, to be sure that nobody’s done something stupid like over-stream and cut a good pitcher, or that someone’s nagging injury doesn’t become a DL trip. It happens fast in baseball because they play every day.

 

The Best Players are the Best Fantasy Players

Again, this is not an attack on fantasy football, but I’d like to show you some of the NFL’s best passers (by yards) in 2012. Matthew Stafford (second), Tony Romo (third), Josh Freeman (ninth), Carson Palmer (tenth). I’ll grant that if you look at touchdowns, the stats are truer to how these guys actually rank as quarterbacks, but there are still several guys who are way out of position. Does anyone remember 2009 and 2010 when Kyle Orton was a valuable fantasy quarterback?

In the NFL, you have more garbage time points that contribute to fantasy points. I lost a fantasy matchup this year (and in turn, missed the playoffs), because Jason Witten scored a touchdown in the last minute in a blowout loss to the Bears.

I’m not saying that never happens in baseball, but garbage time points aren’t anywhere near as prevalent. Remember that great hitters fail seven out of ten times. Great power hitters sock about 40 homers in 600 or so at bats. Conversely, quarterbacks complete well over half of their passes. So, it’s a lot easier to pick up points in a sport like that. By extension, it’s easier to pick up cheap but valuable (oxymoron, I know) fantasy points a sport like that, making some average players look like stars.

Let’s take a look at the top players from 2012 in all five standard fantasy baseball categories.

Runs HR RBI SB AVG
Mike Trout Miguel Cabrera Miguel Cabrera Mike Trout Buster Posey
Miguel Cabrera Josh Hamilton Josh Hamilton Rajai Davis Miguel Cabrera
Ryan Braun Curtis Granderson Chase Headley Everth Cabrera Andrew McCutchen
Andrew McCutchen Edwin Encarnacion Ryan Braun Michael Bourn Mike Trout
Justin Upton Adam Dunn Edwin Encarnacion Jose Reyes/Ben Revere Adrian Beltre

Before we break that down a little bit, let’s do the same thing with pitchers.

Wins Strikeouts Saves ERA WHIP
Gio Gonzalez Justin Verlander Jim Johnson Clayton Kershaw Jered Weaver
R.A. Dickey Max Scherzer Fernando Rodney David Price Clayton Kershaw
Jered Weaver R.A. Dickey Rafael Soriano Justin Verlander Matt Cain
David Price Clayton Kershaw Jason Motte R.A. Dickey R.A. Dickey
Johnny Cueto Felix Hernandez/James Shields Craig Kimbrel Johnny Cueto Justin Verlander

Okay, steals and saves are kind of black sheep categories, and I wouldn’t let Adam Dunn within 10 miles of my fantasy team. Actually, unless he was that close because he was an opponent, I wouldn’t let him that close to my real team, if I was running one. But most of these guys are people you’d want on your real team if you were a general manager.

Any one pitcher can have a great start, just like any hitter can have a great day. But because those games don’t mean as much over a fantasy baseball season, the cream is a little more likely to rise to the crop. One great baseball game is one out of 162. One great football game is one out of 16. You don’t need to be a genius to see which sport is more impacted by one game. Ultimately, I enjoy playing a fantasy sport where I know that the list of most valuable players will look similar to a list of the sport’s best players. It doesn’t stop there.

 

It’s Less Dependent on Draft Luck

I don’t mean to say that other sports don’t have sleepers every year, they do. But the nature of baseball, and fantasy baseball, is that you rely far less on one or two players than you do in other sports.

In a fantasy football league, you can often tell who the top teams will be just in the draft. If someone has an early pick and grabs on of the few true elite running backs, and then gets one of many big stat quarterbacks in the second round, that person has to screw up in a big way to not be competitive in the league.

In baseball, I’ll give a bad owner both Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun as a head start still guarantee that I’d have the better season. Actually, I’d be pretty confident that I’d have the better team coming out of the draft, and I don’t consider drafting my strength.

You need to be able to put a complete roster together if you’re going to compete for a title. Lord knows, I’ve tried to just go hitter heavy and it didn’t work. You need a complete roster and you need to maintain it throughout the year. So, the season isn’t really going to be dictated by where you pick in the draft.

 

Ultimately, all of this is what makes fantasy baseball appealing to me. I love competing in all fantasy sports but if I had to choose one, America’s Pastime would be it.

In League Manager, Miscellany , ,
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Personalized Pre-Draft Fantasy Rankings

Eric Pleiss —  February 20, 2013 — Leave a comment
Willingham gets a bump in OBP leagues. Photo by Ben CK.

Willingham gets a bump in OBP leagues. Photo by Ben CK.

A quick Google search for Fantasy Baseball Rankings returns 21 million results.  There is one from Yahoo! and FantasyPros, ESPN, Rotoworld, even one from the good folks here at Crackerjacks.  Everyone has one and there are draft rankings everywhere.  So how do you decided which one is best for you, and what do you do with it?

You need to understand that Draft Rankings is that they are not one-size-fits all.  Each list is composed by some combination of either last year’s fantasy performance, pre-season projections for 2013, and the authors gut-feeling about particular players.  Generally all these factors got thrown into a pot, mixed around, and then the author will rank the players accordingly.  These lists are usually comprised with a standard 5×5 league in mind, so if your league has different or additional scoring categories, you’ll need to adjust accordingly.

Also, keep in mind, especially if you are using the draft ranking provided by the host of your fantasy league, that all of your competitors have easy access to the exact same list, so if you are a slave to the pre-draft rankings you will be predictable and the savvier GMs in your league will use that to your detriment.

So what can you do?  Make your own list.

Find a couple of rankings that you feel strongly about and merge them together, making adjustments where needed to adapt the rankings to your specific league conditions.  Roster restrictions, scoring categories, league types and draft types will all affect the value of players going into your draft.  If your league lumps all three outfield positions into one position, then there are suddenly three-times as many outfielders in the draft pool than there are players in any other position (besides pitchers).  In those types of leagues, catchers, shortstops and second basement become more valuable because teams generally only have one regular player at each of those positions, so positional scarcity becomes an issue.  In that case, you would want to give middle infielders a bump up in your draft rankings.

Similarly, if your league uses On-Base Percentage (OBP) instead of batting average (Avg) as a scoring category, suddenly guys like Josh Willingham become more valuable as the .366 OBP he sported last year was well above league average, while his batting average, .260, was below average.

Once you’ve finished ranking and shuffling players on your list, I would recommend that you then make one more list.  This list will have all of the players broken down into position groups and ranked within that group.  That way you have an idea, as the draft goes on, how many of the top players in those areas are still available, and you will be able to quickly spot any runs on a particular position that could quickly damage your ability to have a quality producer.

If you are feeling particularly adventurous, you might want to enhance your position player lists by grouping the players into tiers.  I will generally put players into three tiers; Elite, All-Star, Everybody Else.  The idea here is that the value you gain from a player in a specific tier is not drastically different from any other player in that tier.

Maybe you have two outfielders in your elite category (Ryan Braun and Mike Trout), but then you have six more players listed as All-Stars (Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, Josh Hamilton and Carlos Gonzalez).  There are certainly other talented outfielders, but as you get deeper into the draft, you will need to be focused on building a well balanced team, so a players particular skillset will become more valuable than where they show up on your ranking sheet, and they will generally be at least one level below the elite and all-star players you have already identified.

So get out there, have fun with some pre-draft Fantasy Rankings, go wild and rank all 750 players you think might make opening day rosters, just make sure the list you use is your own.

In Rankings, Strategy , , , ,
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13 Dollar Guys who will Triple your Money

Clave Jones —  February 1, 2013 — 2 Comments
Jon Jay might have some value if he can sneak into that leadoff spot.

Jon Jay might have some value if he can sneak into that leadoff spot.

We’re counting down to our 2013 Draft Kit, which will include position-by-position rankings, projections and play tips, all in an easy-to-read format. As we count down to our ’13 release we’ll be sharing 13 lists, all of which we hope will give you a little edge on draft day.

Our first list is 13 guys who shouldn’t cost more than a buck in an auction or a late round draft pick, but could bring you triple their value.

These aren’t necessarily sleepers or unknown players, instead they are a collection of guys who may only contribute in one area, have injury histories, lay claim to a spotty performance history or simply may fly under the radar. But while flawed, they could come cheap and offer the potential for a little reward if you toss them a line. As we jump in, know that these are listed in no particular order.

Everth Cabrera is the 26-year-old Nicaraguan shortstop for the San Diego Padres. I like him because he once stole home in the 9th inning to tie the game. That’s my kind of guy and the kind of guy you want to give you some stolen bases for your fantasy baseball team. SS is his job to lose and it’s possible he’ll bat 1st for the Friars, which means a boost in runs as well. His current ADP is 296 and he’ll “steal” much more value than that.

Jon Jay is currently being drafted around the 245th player overall and that might be generous, considering he’ll never reach double digit homers again. But he should be good for a .285 average and a dozen steals. An injury to Rafael Furcal – which is likely – might allow Jay to hit his way to the top of the St. Louis lineup. Those potential runs could give you a great return on a $1 investment.

Dillon Gee has a blood clot in his shoulder, which ended what could have been a solid season. This 27-year-old Met was striking out 8 guys per 9 innings when he went down. So while there are question marks, your dollar investment could net you a sub-3.50 ERA.

David Hernandez has closer material; he’s just waiting until opportunity knocks. 2012 saw him K over 12 guys per 9, so while he’s known to walk a few too many, he limits any damage done. J.J. Putz is the closer in Arizona, but Hernandez is just an injury away. Plus, he’s a perfect fit if you want to maximize relief innings.

Ryan Cook held up all season for the Oakland A’s, and in fact had a huge second half skill gain by dramatically cutting his walk rate. He’s got a fastball / slider mix that works well as a closer. He comes with a cheap contract and Billy Beane is always itching to make a move. It could be that Balfour finds a new team, opening the door for Cook. If that happens, your $1 investment would pay huge dividends.

Trevor Plouffe is a first round draft pick who was slow to put it all together and find his place on the field. Now that he has little competition for the Minnesota Twins third base job, he’ll get plenty of at bats. He’ll get 20+ homers, but if his approach at the plate continues to improve, he has the potential for even more. He won’t get any attention during your fantasy baseball draft, but he could be a sneaky corner infielder pick.

Scott Baker has always showed big skills, but frustratingly produced little results. If he bounces back quickly from his Tommy John surgery the Cubs will be very pleased in 2013. If not, they might have to wait until 2014 to get their money’s worth. You can watch him pitch a few starts in early 2103 to see if you can get your money’s worth, plus turn a little profit on what will probably be no more than a waiver claim. Countdown 13 Graphic

Ryan Doumit has always hit when he’s been in the lineup. Being a part time DH while sharing catching duties with Joe Mauer allowed him to get plenty of at bats and the switch hitter produced. Expect more in 2013 to the tune of 16 or so HRs to go with a .275 AVG. Unfortunately, his ADP is currently about the 170th player off the board, so you’ll want him to fall a little further in the draft to truly feel like you are turning profit.

Jason Vargas is being drafted just outside the top-75 starting pitchers, but that’s too low. He’s steadily improved the past 3 seasons and his move to Anaheim will give him better run support. Keep in mind that the steady improvements have barely brought him to sub 4.00 ERA levels, but his low walk rates keep his WHIP low and for a $1 investment you could easily get triple that in using him as a back end fantasy baseball starter. Continue Reading…

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Interview with a Fantasy Baseball Rookie

Clave Jones —  November 6, 2012 — Leave a comment

Black and White Baseball
I think you can learn a lot by listening and observing how others approach things. I reached out to Steve Gansen, a friend who has Guest Posted for us in the past. Steve is also someone who is new to the game of fantasy baseball. I wanted to get a little insight into what some of the things a rookie fantasy baseball player learned in the past year.

Read through, soak it in, and perhaps Steve’s experience last year can help you avoid some of his early fantasy baseball mistakes, or encourage you in your fantasy baseball approach. I left it uncut, so let’s get to it.

Steve, you’ve played just a couple years so you’re still learning new strategies and growing in your knowledge of the game. How do you approach the draft? Do you have a predetermined plan and budget split or do you just go where the draft takes you?

Last year I had about five superstars in mind, three hitters and two pitchers, and wanted to come way with at least two of them as the foundation of my team. I was willing to spend up to $70 to get at least one of my hitters, and $50 for one of my pitchers. With that strategy I was able to land Justin Upton and Cliff Lee. Needless to say, I learned no one person is worth breaking the bank. This year I’ ll be practicing better sabermetrics in my draft choices, spreading risk across lesser names but higher all around value.

What’s your edge? What is it about your play style or strategy that allowed you to out-fox your opponents?

I pay close attention to roster trends to make sure I don’t miss a red hot player who can help my team at a week position. For instance, I noticed David Murphy was up 20% or so in roster adds and with some more research learned the reason was his manager was giving him a greater role in the lineup due to his hot bat. In our league you have to move quick, so I snatched him up and it paid off for several weeks when I needed him as an injury replacement.

What player will you never touch again? Why?

Tie between Upton and Ryan Zimmerman. Burned badly with both, Upton for having faith in what turned out to be overvalued power. Zimmerman for hitting .220 for me and .400 when I traded him. Yes, I am irrationally bitter toward him.

What are the harder position for you to fill when playing fantasy baseball?

I have had difficulty with middle infield power ever since Brady Anderson stopped taking steroids. My teams have had disappointing power in general, but I’d kill for 30 combined homers at SS and 2B.

What are some common misconceptions about player evaluation?

That strikeouts are a trade off for homers. Some of the best power hitters seem to have reasonable contact rates. I will never look at someone seriously who K’s 150 times over a full season unless he guarantees 40 homers and 110 walks, which is nobody. Another misconception I’ve had is undervaluing batting average. You have to be at .270 overall to be reasonably in the mix.

What is the most fun aspect of Fantasy Baseball?

The chess match with all the various intelligent strategists, guessing what they are up to while keeping them guessing what you are up to.

Reading through that it’s easy to find takeaways, from not putting too much faith into superstars, to undervaluing batting average in drafts, to watching roster trends closely. It’s also comforting to know that every fantasy baseball player has a couple guys that they irrationally avoid. A big ‘Thank You’ you to Steve for sharing what he learned this past fantasy baseball season.

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All Star Repost: How to Panic Well in a Snake Draft

Clave Jones —  July 11, 2012 — Leave a comment
During the Baseball All-Star break we’ll be reposting some of our “All-Star” articles. This is a repost written by Clave, with no other purpose than the fact that fantasy baseball should be fun.

Aim High
SCENE: You, shoulders relaxed, with your computer on your lap and your feet propped up on the table. You’re confident. You didn’t prepare much for your draft because you’ve got this. Your mind is clear, only wasting valuable space remembering the exact guys you want to target. Your pick is two away and you nonchalantly eye your guy, thinking about how good he’ll look on your team. It’s your buddy’s pick, then yours…

“SON OF A MONKEY!” A knot forms in your neck. A sweat bead forms. “He just took the guy I had my eye on!”

IT’S FULL ON PANIC!! But I’ll tell you how to panic well. Trust me.

1. The first player you want to look for when someone pulls the chair out from under you is one with an alliterative name. Alliteration is almost always awesome. Grab Stephen Strasburg, Coco Crisp, Chris Carpenter or Miguel Montero. Draft by name, not for stats. You say this is 3rd round when this happened? Shoot, go for Brandon Belt. No way he’s been drafted yet!

2. If the player you’ve been eye-ballin’ gets drafted just ahead of you, then draft an injury-prone player instead. The other owners have dropped these guys lower in their rankings over injury concerns. You zig where they zag and reach for them! No way Justin Morneau plays even 50 games. Grab him. Your 3B spot is open? Chipper Jones! Shoot, Joel Zumaya would’ve been good about now, but Grady Sizemore will do in a pinch. And you are in a pinch!

3. Grab an over the hill veteran, just on name recognition. This might be the ticket to revive his career. Is the Jason Varitek retirement official? What about Wakefield? Darn! What are the Red Sox good for? I got it – the Angel’s outfield. Vernon Wells or Bobby Abreu ftw. It doesn’t matter if they are producing anymore, you just need a name that you can recall when you are on the clock. Oh, Craig Counsel! He’s versatile and alliterative!

4. Ok, take a breath. Have fun with this. Just draft the most hillbilly sounding player available. Too bad Oil Can Boyd retired, because that is some kind of crazy hillbilly sounding name. But I bet Bud Norris is still on the board! For every Butch Huskey that didn’t make it in the majors, there is a Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Dan Uggla, Ike Davis, Drew Stubbs, Billy Butler, Freddie Freeman, John Buck or J.J. Putz. You might not compete, but other teams will fear you if you have a roster full of Lucas Dudas.

There you have it. Plenty of valuable tips for how to panic well in a fantasy baseball draft. Makes you almost want the guy you were targeting to be drafted out from under you. Almost.

What about you? Any advice to add?

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Drafting Zen

Nash —  April 10, 2012 — 2 Comments

American Zen

In our final draft leading up to this fantasy baseball season, I decided to take Dixon and Clave’s “zen” approach to drafting.

There are a few strong differences between the 3 of us and how we approach fantasy baseball, especially when it comes to drafting. I am WAY more meticulous than those two. I spend hours and hours researching, creating spreadsheets and budgets, mapping out snake drafts and memorizing other teams’ keepers and their favorite players, all to figure out my best and most plausible team.  I always carry my binder that holds all of my folders for my leagues to each draft.

And yet, I am still waiting to draft the perfect team; I usually have to settle for 1 or 2 guys that I did not have even on my 4 tier deep draft chart.  This year for Tunacorn, my brother and I were working in tandem. He was drafting on the laptop and I was using the trusty spreadsheets on a second laptop.

Clave and Dixon may consider this over-kill as they are minimalists when it comes to draft cheat sheets.  I have never drafted in the same room as Dixon, so all that I know he has with him at his drafts is a slurpee.  I assume he also has a piece of paper with some names scribbled on it, but it could very well be the napkin that came with said slurpee.

Clave at least shows up with the appearance of preparation by bringing along a sheet of paper with printed lines and sometimes a penciled out baseball diamond on it.  That and some sort of snack his wife would not approve of.

A lot of times I find that I manage my teams during the season in the same rigid way that I draft.  This year, my goal is to be able to adjust on the fly better than I have in the past.  I am really tired of second place.

Don’t misunderstand me here, I am the KING of transactions.  I average upwards of 300 transactions (trades, drops and adds) a season each league.  It’s insane.  However, I am always looking to fill my goals that were set in the pre-season.

So I felt a good test would be to relax and go into a draft with nothing more than my McDonald’s Coke and my favorite player in my heart.  (Too sappy or just too weird?)

I did so and was pleased with the outcome.  As a result, I am more encouraged that I can be a little more fluid during the season, a little more zen-like.

Of course, I always will set goals at the onset of a season, and before the season starts I will make trades to get me on the best track to obtain those goals.  However, once the season starts if I am unable to deviate from my preseason strategy, then I will end up with another 2nd place finish or worse.

Clave talked about how to win a few weeks back without winning a single roto category.  Those words were not lost on me at all, as it is VERY valuable advice.  You cannot gain extra points in a roto league by dominating a category.  Whether you win home runs by 1 home run or by 100 home runs, you still max out at 10 or 12 or 15 points depending on your league size.

Last year the Bash Brothers found themselves WAY out in front in home runs and we were unable (er, unwilling) to dump off some home runs for other stats we needed soon enough because of our rigid goals.  Hoping to not redo that mistake, I developed a spreadsheet to help track our pace in each category for this season. This will help us gauge in which categories we can sacrifice to gain in others.  However, no spreadsheet can help if you are unwilling to adjust your thinking and go with the flow of your roto league.

So with a new zen-like approach,  we wait and see how this season plays out.

I have taken steps to becoming a zen owner:

  • Being able to set my lineup once and forget about it.
  • No longer sitting at my computer and watching stats happen, but instead checking in just to make sure my guys aren’t hurt.
  • And not making trades to get my teams to pre-season goals, but rather to position them in the right place to make a run!

So here is to being fluid in our approach to Roto leagues this year, here is to being zen all day every day, and here is to bringing home the championship!!

What about you? Share your draft and managerial style with us in the comments!

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