Archives For pitching

Ask Nash: Trading for Pitching Upgrades

Nash —  May 10, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Richard Fahey.

Photo courtesy of Richard Fahey.

Nash,

Thank you for taking the time to answer my question.

My pitching is a mess right now. I have Cole Hamels, Max Scherzer, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada, John Lackey, and a bunch of bums after that. I do have Jered Weaver coming off the DL soon.

My offense is pretty stacked as of right now and as a result, I’m looking to deal an OF for some starting pitching. Right now, I’m looking at these potential deals.

  1. Shin-Soo Choo for Jaime Garcia and Tony Cingrani or Jeremy Hellickson.
  2. Shin-Soo Choo for Clay Buchholz and an undetermined player.
  3. Shane Victorino for Jaime Garcia.

I am willing to deal these guys because I have Nate McLouth to take their spot, and Mark Teixeira coming off of the DL soon.

I am leaning towards the first trade because I need pitching depth. Am I nuts to make this trade? I am not sure what the Reds plan is for Cingrani once Johnny Cueto comes off of the DL, so I am having reservations about it.

Thank you,

Pete

Pete,

The good news is that I would always rather be set on offense and needing help in pitching because it’s usually easier to bolster pitching, and any of these trades will do the trick. I would also be intrigued by the opportunity to grab Cingrani, as he has come on about as hot as anyone could have hoped.

However, I believe Choo is far and away better. So, the opportunity to obtain Garcia and only give up “The Flyin’ Hawaiian might be your best bet. If this were a dynasty league where you would now have Cingrani locked up until he’s 45, then I’d take that trade. BUT, if this is a win now move, you are in a far better situation only losing Victorino.

Regarding Cingrani, he should not be at risk of losing starts once Cueto returns. His danger is more facing an innings limit, as most highly-touted rookies do. Then again, he plays for Dusty Baker, who is about as old school as it gets and may not put Tony C on any sort of innings cap.

Homer Bailey is probably in the most danger in regards to losing some starts when the rotation gets crowded. So, Tony should be safe. Although, one does have to wonder if he can possibly keep this current stat-line up.

IP H ER BB K W ERA WHIP
24  15 7 5 33 2 2.63 0.83

It’s highly unlikely and if he levels off to finish with even solid numbers (3.00-3.25 ERA/1.15-1.35 WHIP) by season’s end, then his best starts are almost assuredly behind him.

With all of that being said, I firmly stand behind my preference to take Garcia for Victorino. You give up a little to upgrade your pitching just enough. With the return of Weaver, your pitching mess will hopefully get cleaned up.

Nash

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of April 22

Michael Dixon —  April 22, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

In 2012, Dixon’s Picks was not only something I did every week, but I really enjoyed it. So, here we are again.

You don’t win a fantasy baseball league without taking chances. Some of those are season-long chances, other are short-term ones, like, should I pick this waiver wire pitcher up for a few starts, or not?

The simple word for all of that is streaming. It’s a practice that some people hate, but many use, which is why I write these every week.

Who’s eligible, who’s not?. Well, anyone available in more than half of ESPN leagues (ESPN is my primary fantasy baseball site) is eligible. For the most part, these are guys who are scheduled to pitch twice during the week and for the benefit of you head-to-head guys, this will run every Monday. We all know that Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw won’t be claimed on any waiver wires. These guys won’t be that good for the length of the season, but they’re in situations with favorable matchups. Now, you ultimately decide whether or not these guys come to your team, but I’d suggest giving these guys a look.

Of course, I’m dealing with probable starts. Things like weather delays and injuries sometimes change that, let’s just hope it doesn’t happen too much.

Let’s get 2013′s first Dixon’s Picks underway…

 

Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins – Probable Starts: Monday at Minnesota Twins, Sunday vs. Chicago Cubs

Obviously, if you claim a Marlins’ player, you know that the run support will be thin, so they won’t exactly be bankable for wins. But they’ve had some solid pitching performances through the year, and Ricky Nolasco has been rock solid. Take a look at what he’s done through the first four starts of the year.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
23.1 6 23 6 15 0-2 3.86 1.24

That’s two out of four quality starts, and none of the outings were particularly bad. Remember, this early in the season, it doesn’t take much more than a bad inning or two to really inflate things like ERA and WHIP. So, he’s pitching well and getting to pitch at Target Field & Marlins Park against a middle of the road offense (Twins), and a struggling one (Cubs). Thus far, he’s gone twice against a strong Nationals team, and once against the Mets and Phillies.

Now, the downfall for Nolasco is that he’s not a high strikeout guy. But pitching against these hitters in these parks, contact shouldn’t be a huge problem. Yes, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro, and even Alfonso Soriano are fine hitters, but nobody else really strikes fear into any pitcher. I’d fully expect two quality starts this week from the Marlins’ top guy.

Nolasco’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 5 12 4 10 1-0 3.46 1.23

 

Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox - Probable Starts: Tuesday vs. Cleveland Indians, Sunday vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Do you like gambling? If you do, then Jose Quintana is a guy that you should give a really strong look at this week. Yes, the Indians and Rays have some capable hitters on their rosters but right now, those are scuffling offenses and Quintana is pitching incredibly well.

We also know that Quintana is capable of keeping runners from crossing home plate when he is on. Take a look at his first three months of 2012 (he didn’t debut until May).

  • May: 1.76 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
  • June: 2.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
  • July: 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

Perhaps a bit lucky with that June ERA, but also unlucky in July.

The point of all of that is that over his last two starts, Quintana has been pretty hot. Take a look at the numbers.

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13.2 0 6 2 14 1-0 0.00 0.44

One of those games was a seven-inning, one-hit, no walk performance against the Indians. Another was a similarly dominant performance against the Blue Jays.

Now, I am not projecting that Quintana will continue at this pace for the season or even the week, but he can be worse than that and still pretty dang good. Those numbers are just gaudy. Right now, I don’t see Cleveland or Tampa halting that in a serious way. But going beyond this week a little bit, Quintana is 24, was a dominant pitcher in the minors and was solid in 2012 as a rookie. He’s available in more than 90 percent of ESPN leagues. If you have a scuffling pitching staff or have one of many guys who have been hurt, Quintana might be a valuable addition beyond this week.

Quintana’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 4 12 4 11 1-0 2.57 1.14

 

Carlos Villanueva, Chicago Cubs - Probable Starts: Tuesday at Cincinnati Reds, Sunday at. Miami Marlins

I’d like to show you how Carlos Villanueva has done thus far in 2013, but let’s look at this start-by-start.

Opponent IP  ER H BB K ERA WHIP Dec.
at Atlanta 6.2 1 6 2 6 1.35 1.12 ND
vs. San Francisco 7.1 0 3 1 3 0.00 0.55 ND
vs. Texas 7 2 4 1 6 2.57 0.71 W
Total 21 3 13 4 15 1.29 0.81 1-0

Okay, Major League Baseball insists that teams who qualify for the Wild Card play-in game are playoff teams, so we’re going to go with that right now. All three of those teams made the playoffs in 2012. I make that point and I showed the start-by-start totals because I’m sure many of you are looking at that first opponent, the Cincinnati Reds, as a team that doesn’t exactly jump out as a classic stream opponent. With Shin Soo-Choo, Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto, and Jay Bruce, they’re one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, especially at home. Under normal circumstances, this is not a team you’d stream against.

But Villanueva has had three brilliant outings against very capable lineups this year, including a scorching Atlanta lineup.

I’d also point out that if you really don’t want to gamble, you could leave Villanueva on the bench on Tuesday, and pitch him over the weekend against the Miami Giancarlo’s Marlins. Now, you may see that and realize that I also advised Nolasco for that game. Obviously, if you need two wins on Sunday, that’s not going to work. But I would expect a low-scoring affair there and would have no problem throwing opposing pitchers, even if I can’t pick up more than one win.

Like Quintana, VIllanueva has a history of getting really hot. Now, his career is a little longer and while he’s not a bad pitcher, he’s not a great one. But when he’s hot, you want him on your team. Right now, he’s hot. You’ll certainly want him on your team when he’s facing the Marlins.

Now, I think Villanueva will do fine against the Reds this week, but I do understand if many of you don’t want to start him against Cincinnati. So, instead of just a total projection, I’ll give you a start-by-start one.

Villanueva’s Projections for the Week

  IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
at Cincinnati 6  3  6  2 4 ND 4.50 1.33 
at Miami 8 0 4 1 7 W 0.00 0.63 
Total 14 3 10 3 11 1-0 1.93 0.93 

 

 

 

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It was a bad day for aces.

Clave Jones —  April 8, 2013 — Leave a comment
Don't panic if your ace implodes. Photo courtesy of Eric Van Dyke.

Don’t panic if your ace implodes. Photo courtesy of Eric Van Dyke.

Many fantasy owners started Dickey, Strasburg, and Hamels yesterday. These were guys who were counted on to anchor their pitching staff, so needless to say, things didn’t go as hoped. Here are the lines for these guys, plus a few others:

IP K W ERA Whip
Cole Hamels Phi 5.2 2 0 12.71 2.29
R.A. Dickey Tor 4.2 5 0 13.50 2.57
Matt Cain SF 3.2 2 0 22.09 2.45
Yovani Gallardo Mil 6.0 3 0 6.00 1.83
James Shields KC 6.0 8 1 6.00 1.67
David Price TB 5.0 3 0 14.40 2.60
Stephen Strasburg Was 5.1 5 0 10.13 2.44

The aces weren’t aces.

Shields was probably the one taken the latest in most drafts and he was the only one with a win or any significant Ks. But he still pitched a stinker that would kill your ratios. The rest were miserable and Cain didn’t even last 4 innings.

Sure, there were aces like CC Sabathia and Adam Wainwright who pitched gems yesterday, but where I’m going with this is that it’s early season and a rough outing or slow start will get the emotions going among your more impetuous league mates.

Here are a few tips if your fantasy team got shelled yesterday:

Don’t panic.

Seriously, don’t panic. Roto is a marathon, not a sprint. No one likes to see shellacking or golden sombrero at any time during the season, but it’s going to happen. Just like great hitters will ultimately put up great numbers, great pitchers will ultimately put up great stat lines. But they will toss a stinker or two. Don’t let the fact that it’s early in the season cause any sort of over-reaction.

Be patient because the aces that got knocked around yesterday are likely to string together gems in their next 3-4 starts and be right back on track, as will your fantasy team.

Take advantage of other’s panic.

Some of your league mates won’t take the above advice and they’ll panic. They will be convinced that one bad start is an omen of a bad season to come and they’ll give up on a guy too soon. I’m hesitant to tell you to take advantage of another man’s poor choices, but you need to absolutely take advantage of another man’s poor choices.

If they panic and drop a player then burn your waiver claim or blow your FAAB (well, that’s an odd phrase). If they offer you a trade where they are selling seriously low on a guy after one bad start, then accept it immediately and say “Thanks sucker!”  Actually, do accept the trade, but don’t call them a sucker. You don’t want to burn that bridge. Call them a sucker behind their back.

Ride a hot streak.

Some players are getting off to slow starts (pun intended). Meanwhile, pitchers like Jose Fernandez  pitched a gem, despite being young and over his head. If you have roster flexibility, get a few solid innings out of the fast starters. They are out there. Look for a waiver wire surprise and even if you only use him for a start or two or might be able to flip him for an asset later. I can remember picking up Sam Fuld last year, playing him for 2 games, then trading him away for a struggling pitcher who ended up putting together the great season I knew he would.

Don’t do this at the expense your guys who are struggling. Remember, be patient and don’t drop them for a player who just happens to be hot. But do consult Dixon’s Picks if you have a little roster flexibility. He’ll provide you with some solid options.

Play day-to-day.

If you love the day-to-day nature, try daily baseball. If you find you are the kind of guy that really likes chasing those day to day breakouts, then go with it. Maybe you’re naturally a sprinter and not a marathon runner. Then roto might not be for you, so give daily baseball a try.

I’m sure you’ve seen several advertised. I play StarStreet because I like that you can do a Pick Five as well as several Daily options, such as head-to-head or buy-ins. I’m a roto guy all the way, but I do like that instant gratification of daily fantasy baseball. Give Starstreet a try.

 

I realize it’s tough early in the season to see your top round pick or guy you spent a lot of auction money just totally implode. But dont panic. In fact, take advantage of those who do panic.

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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: The Value of Jose Fernandez

Michael Dixon —  April 3, 2013 — 2 Comments
Photo courtesy of JonDigital

Photo courtesy of JonDigital

The value of interacting with readers is that even if they don’t ask for anything terribly in depth, your answers to their questions cause you to do a bit of research. Case in point: A recent Facebook conversation about Jose Fernandez of the Marlins:

Original Comment: Jose Fernandez might be worth an add. What do you think?

My Response: Not Yet.

After a slight diversion, we had Clave chime in with what is currently the last word said on the matter.

Clave: Only Jeremy Bonderman and Rick Porcello have jumped from A ball at age 20. Fernandez in the majors is a gamble, but not surprising considering the Marlins.

That last little bit got me to thinking a little bit. With such a small sample size, let’s take a look at what Jeremy Bonderman, Rick Porcello, and Fernandez did in their Age-19 seasons in the minors.

  IP ER H BB SO K/9 H/9 BB/9 W-L ERA WHIP
Bonderman (2002) 156.2 66 140 59 170 9.8 8.0 3.4 9-9 3.79 1.270 
Porcello (2008) 125 37 116 33 72 5.2 8.4 2.4 8-6 2.66 1.192 
Fernandez (2012) 134 26 89 35 158 10.6 6.0 2.4 14-1 1.75 0.925

Before we look into Fernandez, let’s take a look at how Bonderman and Porcello fared as rookies.

  IP ER H BB SO K/9 H/9 BB/9 W-L ERA WHIP
Bonderman (2003) 162 100 193 58 108 6.0 10.7 3.2 6-19 5.56 1.549 
Porcello (2009) 170.2 75 176 52 89 4.7 9.3 2.7 14-9 3.96 1.336

From a real baseball perspective, I’d actually say that Porcello’s 2009 season was pretty good. From a fantasy perspective, it was nothing to write home about. He’s not a strikeout guy so even though his ERA was under 4.00 and he won 14 games, the rest of the season was rather ordinary.

Now, I’ll grant that Fernandez as a 19-year-old was better than Bonderman and Porcello in nearly every category, but in case you didn’t know this, Major League hitters are a lot better than A-ball guys. If you’re not even 21, you haven’t learned your craft at all. Now, you can point to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper if you’d like, but I’d think about a few things before drawing the comparison with Fernandez.

  1. Hitting is much different than pitching. Good hitters fail seven out of ten times. Pitchers are expected to succeed a lot more. 
  2. Both Trout and Harper played at higher Minor League levels, with Trout even being a September call-up in 2011.
  3. Hitters or pitchers, you may not see rookies like Trout or Harper for quite some time.

There’s something else to consider about Fernandez, a pitch count that’s likely to be pretty strict (per ESPN).

He will make his MLB debut next Sunday against the Mets. Marlins president Larry Beinfest indicated that Fernandez is expected to throw 150-170 innings this season, all with the major league club.

That’s not something you want to see. It’s going to be hard enough to win games for the Marlins this year, but if they’re putting him on a tight innings watch, then he’s not going to be getting deep in games often enough to win many of them. Throw in the fact that the Marlins are an awful team, so any injuries, even if minor, will likely be treated very cautiously.

I agree with Clave and Mark Townsend of Yahoo Sports, this is a hard move to justify. There’s going to be a serious learning curve. Again, I know that Fernandez has a better track record than Bonderman and Porcello. I also know that Porcello has been okay as a major leaguer. Personally, I’d attribute that more to his style of pitching, which makes adjustments easier. But if we’re being really kind Bonderman had an average career, and a disastrous rookie season. Fernandez may be better than Bonderman was, but he’ll have to be much better to have a rookie season that’s considered good.

As bright as Fernandez’s future seems to be, I’d avoid him in 2013, at least for a while. Think back to when you were in school. Every year, there was an adjustment period, which was usually countered by teachers lightening the load in the first few weeks. Jumping from A-ball to Triple-A is about the equivalent of going from fifth grade to your senior year in high school, only with that irritating teacher who gives you three hours worth of homework on the first day of school.

The only advice I have for fantasy owners on Fernandez is to wait, probably five starts. See what he gives the Marlins then, and how rough his adjustment is. See how well he’s striking guys out, or if his walk rates are dramatically increasing. If he’s transitioning smoothly, I’d say he’s worth a spot on deeper rosters, at least on a spot start basis.

But I’m not expecting that. Fernandez has an incredibly bright future, but I think the earliest the bright part starts is late-2013, but I’m looking more at 2014 or even 2015.

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Waiver Wire Success: Winning Teams = Winning Pitchers

Eric Pleiss —  March 27, 2013 — Leave a comment
Pitching for baseball's best team helped Gio Gonzalez lead the majors in wins in 2012. Photo courtesy of Richard Martin.

Pitching for baseball’s best team helped Gio Gonzalez lead the majors in wins in 2012.
Photo courtesy of Richard Martin.

After your draft is over, you might be excited about the guys you snuck through for a $1. You also might be disappointed that you drafted Hanley Ramirez in the first round and then he injured his hand and will start the season on the DL. No matter what the result of your draft was, you will eventually need to find a player or two on the waiver wire.

When looking to add a pitcher, go out and get the best player you can, but if you find yourself with a choice between two relatively similar players, always pick the player on the better team. Better teams win more games. More victories means more opportunities for your pitcher to pick up a win.

Pitcher wins might not be the best way to measure pitcher performance, but regardless of their analytic value, wins appear as a fantasy stat in a vast majority of fantasy baseball leagues. One of the reasons wins are frowned upon by the statistical community is because so much happens in a game to determine the outcome that is beyond the control of any one pitcher.

Even a great pitching performance cannot make up for a team that does not score any runs. But a terrible pitching performance could be rewarded with a victory thanks to a few timely hits. Every game ends with the teams earning a win and a loss, and the same goes for pitchers, someone will record a victory, and someone will be tagged with a loss. So if you have two similarly skilled players, the player on the better team (even relievers) will end up with a couple of bonus wins at the end of the season, just because his teammates are better.

This is simple advice, but let it serve as another reminder that, even on the waiver wire, real baseball affects fantasy baseball.

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2013 Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles: Shelby Miller

Michael Dixon —  March 26, 2013 — Leave a comment
Shelby Miller is a bright spot for a bright Cardinals organization. Photo courtesy of Greg Nelson

Shelby Miller is a bright spot for a bright Cardinals organization.
Photo courtesy of Greg Nelson

There’s always a tendency to look young in fantasy baseball. One of the trendy names this year has been Shelby Miller of the Cardinals. It makes sense, Miller ranks sixth on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospect list. But while his long term future is bright, what kind of 2013 can we expect from the St. Louis fire-baller?

 

What we know he’ll bring

Let’s start with the basics. He’s listed as the fifth starter on the depth chart on the St. Louis website. When you’re a starter on a perennial playoff contender that hasn’t had a losing season since 2007, there’s a pretty good chance that you’ll rack up some wins. The 2012 Cardinals scored the fifth most runs in baseball in 2012, and that run support helped four of their pitchers (Lance Lynn, Kyle Lohse, Adam Wainwright, and Jake Westbrook) win 13 or more games. Say what you want about how indicative a win is of a pitcher’s value, but if he stays in the rotation all year, Miller will likely win at least 10 games. That’s a nice fallback plan.

But let’s be real. Miller’s main draw are his strikeouts. Even more than a likely good W-L record, those will come in a pretty big way. Don’t believe me? Look at the numbers.

IP K K/9
Minors (2009-2012) 383.2 472 11.1
Majors (2012-postseason included) 17 20 10.6

Not bad. Not bad at all. With the exception of a three-inning stint in 2009, Miller has never had a K/9 rate under 9.2 in a professional season.

Admittedly, young arms are generally watched very closely by their organizations and no chances are taken. But if Miller throws only 120 innings and goes at a 9.2 K/9 rate, you’re looking at about the same amount of total strikeouts that Jeremy Hellickson had in 177 innings in 2012, and more than Clayton Richard had in 218.2 innings in 2012. Mind you, Richard’s not a strikeout guy, but he did have a sub 4.00 ERA and a WHIP under 1.25.

Now, I don’t know if he’ll be under an innings watch this year like Stephen Strasburg was in 2012, but it’s nice to know that even if the Cardinals are conservative with him, he’ll bring plenty of strikeouts.

 

Where you should be nervous

Miller sometimes throws like a guy who just turned 22, which is the case. While he showed decent control in limited MLB time in 2012, his walk rates have been pretty ugly in the minors. In his Minor League career, Miller averaged 3.2 walks per nine innings, with the total never really improving. Look at the totals.

  • 2010, A: 2.8 BB/9
  • 2011, A+/AA: 3.4 BB/9
  • 2012, AAA: 3.3 BB/9

Now that he’s theoretically going to have a full Major League season against hitters who are generally more selective than any seen in the minors, I worry about that rate getting above 3.5, or even higher (which is what we project in our Draft Kit). That’s going to amount to an ugly WHIP. Really, even in the minors, Miller has never thrived in the WHIP department.

  • 2010: 1.246
  • 2011: 1.181
  • 2012: 1.376

That works out to a total WHIP of 1.277 in the minors, which is hardly a sign of a pitcher who’s ready to be dominant in the majors. High walk rates are not only WHIP killers but against good offenses, they’re ERA killers, and if he’s allowing a lot of runs, he’ll either be losing a lot of games, or pulled before he can earn a win.

 

Overall outlook

Miller has a bright future, that’s really undeniable. But looking at 2013, you have to ask yourself one question. Is his stuff good enough to overcome the walks so they don’t kill his ERA?

For me, Miller is the kind of guy to gamble on. He’s probably a late-rounder, or even a waiver wire guy (unless you’re in a keeper or dynasty league). He’s got great stuff and I’m confident that will help keep his ERA from exploding.

Having said that, he’s not an every-start pitcher. Not yet, anyway. So, I’m only really suggesting those in leagues with moderately deep benches target him.

In the early going I’d only start him against weaker lineups, and teams that don’t draw many walks. In the National League, I’m looking at opponents like the Cubs, Pirates, Marlins, Mets, and Padres. As it happens, the Cardinals face the Pirates twice, and the Cubs once before Mother’s Day, with the Mets on the schedule right after, and the Padres the following week.

If you roster Miller, only start him against those teams first two months. That could theoretically mean that you miss out on a great start but with his walk rate and the opponents they’re playing, I doubt anything will be that good. See where he’s at heading into June and go from there. He’s a special arm that fantasy owners should be excited about, so long as they keep their excitement within reason.

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Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles 2013: Matt Moore

Steve Mims —  March 26, 2013 — 1 Comment
Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Photo courtesy of Keith Allison.

Is it me, or is there less buzz about Matt Moore this season than there was last year?

It’s a crazy thought if true, but fantasy owners seemed so disappointed in his slow start in 2012 that they have forgotten how well he was during the second half of the season.

Moore is a 23-year-old lefty considered the best pitching prospect in baseball a couple years ago and nothing he has done in the last two seasons should have changed anyone’s mind.

Lets look at his brief big-league history.

Pros

After the All-Star-Game last year, Moore had a 3.01 ERA in 14 starts with more than a strikeout an inning. Even if you include his slow start, Moore had 11 wins and a 3.81 ERA in his first full season in the majors at age 22, striking out 175 in just over 177 innings.

Moore will get better in his second season and it could be considerably better because the 3.81 ERA was his worst in six pro seasons. In full minor league seasons, he had ERA’s of 1.66, 3.15, 3.36, and 1.92. He had 50 more strikeouts than innings pitched in three of his seasons in the minors.

Moore has been pretty consistent between home and road with a 3.55 ERA at home and 4.14 on the road. You would expect a young pitcher in a dome to have more dramatic difference in those splits.

Cons

Every fantasy owner seemed to target Moore last year and he started out with a 4.68 ERA in April and 4.83 in May and suddenly fantasy players were wondering if he could pitch in the bigs. Those who remained patient were rewarded the rest of the season until he had a rough September.

His early struggles were often a result of giving up homers as he gave up 18 on the year. But again, 13 of those came before the All-Star break.

Taking a pitcher in the American League East has always been a concern, but while Toronto should be improved, Boston and New York aren’t what they used to be on offense and Baltimore will not likely repeat last year’s numbers.

Wins may be the biggest concern for Moore, who had just 11 in a pretty good season. His overall stats could have easily resulted in 16 wins and that leads to concerns that Tampa Bay could have a tough time getting Moore to that number even if he shows improvement this year.

Overall

I see Matt Moore as one of the top pitching options in the American League and one of the safest bets you can take at pitcher.

It is hard to imagine him having an ERA over 3.75, less than 200 strikeouts, or fewer than 14 wins and the upside is great. This is a guy who could post a 3.10 ERA with 220 strikeouts and 18 wins.

If the buzz has worn off Moore in your league, grab him and enjoy.

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Who’d you rather? Cole Hamels or Matt Cain

Michael Dixon —  March 15, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Dinur Blum

Photo courtesy of Dinur Blum

If you can’t get your hands on a Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, David Price, or (maybe) Stephen Strasburg, you’d have a hard time finding a better fantasy ace than Cole Hamels or Matt Cain. These two have a bit of history with each other, as they each homered against the other in the same inning of a game last season. Fortunately, they won’t have to face each other a heck of a lot.

The two are ranked incredibly close to each other. We have Cain ranked at 39 and Hamels at 40, while ESPN has them at 30 and 33, with the nod going to Cain. Should they be that close? Should Hamels actually be higher than Cain? Let’s find out.

 

Wins

Alright, this category can be a little tricky to figure out, as you’re relying as much on run support and good late-inning bullpen work as you are your own performance. Still, let’s do the best that we can.

Based on 2012, you’d have to give the edge to Cain. The Giants won 94 games, while the Phillies won 81, also scoring more runs and boasting a better bullpen, especially in the late innings. The problem with that is if you eliminate 2012 from the equation, you’d have to go back to 2004 to find a year where the Giants won more regular season games than Philadelphia.

Neither are what you’d call young teams, but the heart of the Giants order (Buster Posey – 26, Pablo Sandoval – 26 , Hunter Pence – 30), have a bit fewer question marks than like likes of Ryan Howard – 33, Chase Utley – 34, and Jimmy Rollins – 34, who all have a recent injury history.

The only other thing to look at is their innings pitched, to see who will put himself in position to win more games. Those are historically comparable between these two, so you’d have to think they’ll be right around there again.

The edge has gone to Hamels in each of the last few years, but not by much. Again, wins are hard to predict but looking at all factors, the edge goes to Cain here, even if only slightly.

 

Strikeouts

This one is much less complex. Cain is a power pitcher and can certainly record some strikeouts, but he’s at his best when he mixes speeds and locations. His pitches don’t necessarily miss bats, but the contact is usually not especially loud. He won’t drain your strikeout total, but he’s never struck out more than 193 batters.

Hamels is a little different, as strikeouts are more a part of his game. Year in and year our, he’s struck hitters out at a better rate than Cain, going over 200 in two of the last three seasons, fanning 194 in the other year.

Photo courtesy of Art Siegel

Photo courtesy of Art Siegel

If Hamels’ worst season over the last three years is one better than Cain’s career high, you’d have to give the nod to Hamels here, in a moderately big way.

 

ERA

Hamels does miss more bats, so “luck” is less of a factor, but Cain’s pitching style is so straightforward and powerful that you’d have to be way too picky to focus on his higher contact rates.

The other thing to focus on here is the home park. San Francisco’s AT&T Park is far more pitcher-friendly than Philadelphia’s Citizen’s Bank Park. When pitching at his home park, Cain can get away with a lot more contact than Hamels can. The proof there is that Cain’s career ERA at home is 2.98, while Hamels is 3.20.

Those are both very solid and come down a matter of a few runs, but you have to give the edge to the guy who pitches in the better environment most of the time, so the edge belongs to Cain.

 

WHIP

Now, if you have either one of these guys on the team, he’s probably your best pitcher. So you have ask yourself if you prefer a higher risk/reward discrepancy here, or a more reliably total.

If you tell me right now that one of these guys will have a WHIP below 1.00 in 2013, my guess is that it will be Hamels. Conversely, if you were to tell me that one of those guys will have a WHIP above 1.10, it would also be Hamels. Mind you, that’s not a bad total, but Cain’s had the better WHIP in two of the last three years, coming in between 1.00 and 1.09 in every one of those years. The worst Hamels has done in that period is 1.179, but he’s also been under 1.00 once.

Personally, I’ll go with the more reliable guy here and say that Cain’s the guy to go with. Hamels isn’t much of a gamble, but he’s not quite the sure thing here that Cain is.

 

Overall

If you’re in a snake draft with two close picks, I’d consider going with both of those guys. The biggest edge of this group goes to Hamels, but Cain is stronger in more areas.

So, if you could only have one, take Matt Cain to anchor your staff.

 

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Who’d you rather? Chris Sale or Kris Medlen?

Clave Jones —  March 10, 2013 — 3 Comments

Kris Medlen can anchor your pitching staff, but is Chris Sale a better option?

Who’d you rather target for your pitching staff, Chris Sale or Kris Medlen? We’ll profile both players, comparing and contrasting, then determine which is the better bet for your fantasy baseball pitching staff.

Kris Medlen

First, let’s get to know him. He’s a barely 5’10″ righty who played shortstop in college and was drafted as a reliever in 2006′s 10th round. His wife’s name is Nicole and his drink of choice is Coors Light.

Returning from TJ surgery the Atlanta Braves started him in the bullpen in order to ease him into action. He got his first start on July 31 and ended that second half with a 0.94 ERA, 0.82 Whip, 9 Wins, and 95 Ks to only 14 walks. That half of pitching has been matched only by the likes of Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Bob Gibson. Had that been stretched over a full season, they would have been forced to rename the Cy Young award after him. It can not be overstated how unhittable he was in 2012.

Can he stretch it over a full season in 2013?

Medlen throws four pitches. First, a two-seam or four-seam fastball in the 89–92 mph range. Second, a curveball used against righties that sits between 77–80.  An insanely good changeup (80–83), which is used primarily against left-handers (Hitters hit just .098 vs. this pitch and, in fact, whiff against it an astounding 44% of the time). Lastly, Medlen will throw a handful of sliders just to keep hitters guessing.

It’s this type of pitch mix mixed with impeccable control that allows him to be so dominate despite his being a diminutive righty, and it’s also what will keep him effective in 2013 and beyond.

But will he be more effective than Chris Sale?

Chris Sale

Sale is a 6’6″ hard-throwing lefty, the rock to Medlen’s roll. In 2012 he led the NCAA in strikeouts. He also jumped from relief to the rotation, but he was stretched out early and got a full slate of innings in 2012, which ended with a 9.0 K/9, 3.05 ERA, and 1.13 Whip.

Sale also throws four pitches. A fastball that can clock in at 95 mph and a second two-seam fastball at about 90. Third, a 81-85 mph changeup to righties and finally a wicked slider that serves as his out pitch.

Sale will give you plenty of K’s, which are great for fantasy. He also doesn’t walk a ton and keeps the home runs allowed to a minimum, all the things you are looking for in a successful pitcher. He’ll be a stud for years and the White Sox agree, signing him to an extension.

Who’d you rather?

Medlen has been a poster child for what coming back successfully from Tommy John surgery can look like. There are no injury concerns with him. Additionally, his pinpoint control coupled with his ability to change speeds bring comparisons to Greg Maddux. No one places those types of lofty expectations upon him, but for him to be in the same ballpark of that skill-set makes him a fantastic fantasy baseball option.

Sale has been a poster child for what a successful shift to the rotation can look like. He has all the skills you are looking for in a successful pitcher, plus he misses bats, which makes him a fantastic fantasy baseball option as well.

I’m calling this a wash.

We have Medlen as our #16 starting pitcher off the board and Sale as the #18 in our Draft Kit. It really comes down to value with these two, meaning which of the two you can get at a bargain on draft day. If either one slides even a spot or two, don’t hesitate to draft him.

Our 2013 fantasy baseball projections:

Age IP K BB W ERA Whip K/9 K/BB
Kris Medlen $17 Atl 27 180 157 39 14 2.95 1.09 7.9 4.0
Chris Sale $17 CWS 24 198 202 53 16 2.91 1.13 9.2 3.8
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10 Spot Start Pitchers Ready for Jump to Next Level

Michael Dixon —  February 6, 2013 — Leave a comment
Niese straddles being a spot starter and taking the next step forward. Photo courtesy of flickr.

Niese straddles being a spot starter and taking the next step forward. Photo courtesy of flickr.

This isn’t the first or last time you’ll hear this from me, but drafting the game’s elite pitchers early in a fantasy baseball draft is a real risk. They only play once every five games, so even a true ace like Justin Verlander has his effectiveness limited.

Therefore, I rely a lot on guys for spot starts, or spurts. All of these players spent a lot of 2012 on the fantasy baseball waiver wire and naturally, were available for streaming, or for a more protracted period of time during hot streaks. I’m looking for that to change in 2013, and for the better. I’m expecting these pitchers to make a transition from temporary fantasy fix, to long term fixtures for your fantasy baseball team in 2013. Let’s take a look.

 

  • Homer Bailey – Cincinnati Reds

What? A pitcher named Homer? How could this be?

Sorry, I know that that joke has been told a lot since Homer Bailey came into the league in 2007, but I just wanted to try it out to see if there was some prize for being the millionth person to tell the joke. Turns out there’s not, so now let’s get down to business.

Of all of Bailey’s stats, the one that really jumps out at me is his K:BB ratio (this won’t be the last time you hear that). When you pitch at the Great American Ballpark, you have to be ready to allow some home runs. But if those home runs come with nobody on base, they don’t hurt you that much. That’s how Bailey ranked in the top (or bottom) 20 in home runs allowed in 2012, but still finished the season with a nice 3.68 ERA.

The other part of that ratio are the strikeouts, and 168 in 208 innings will give you a nice start towards being competitive in strikeouts. Put all of this in with being a part of a good team that wins a lot of games, and it’s hard to see Bailey being a drain in any fantasy category.

Bailey has been around for a long time, so it’s hard to remember that he’ll only be 27 in May. Look for a good 2013 campaign from the Cincinnati right-hander.

 

  • Wade Davis – Kansas City Royals

Being up front here, the biggest reservation I have including Wade Davis on this list is that he had by far his best year as a professional in 2012, only as a reliever. The Royals do have some pitching depth, so it’s not inconceivable that he’ll end up in the bullpen in 2013. But I included him here for a few reasons.

  1. As of this moment, he’s in the Kansas City starting rotation, at least according to their website’s depth chart.
  2. If by chance he does get bumped to the bullpen and comes anywhere close to his 2012 output, you have a very valuable fantasy player, even from the bullpen.

Now, Davis’ BB:9 ratio in 2012 didn’t really stand out against the rest of his career, but his strikeout ratio was phenomenal. Some of this comes from pitching out of the bullpen, but that’s also attributed to learning how to make hitter’s bats miss the ball. Davis was never a bat starter, but it was easy to get moved to the bullpen in the Tampa rotation. Now, he’s not in that spot anymore and used a year in the bullpen to better himself. Davis’ 2013 outlook is very bright.

 

  • Scott Diamond – Minnesota Twins

Clave doesn’t think the Twins pitching staff is a real Major League rotation. I can’t say that I completely disagree, but I am willing to call Scott Diamond the exception to that.

In a lot of ways, Diamond’s 2012 was the polar opposite of what Wade Davis did. Davis walked a lot of guys, but figured out how to strike hitters out, coming in at over 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Diamond doesn’t really strike anyone out, but he doesn’t walk anyone either. As a matter of fact, he led the league in walks per nine innings in 2012, and did so over 173 innings.Countdown 13 Graphic

Now, I won’t tell you that Minnesota has an explosive offense, but they’re not bad either. In 2012, they supported Diamond well enough for him to win 12 games with a 3.54 ERA. Diamond doesn’t walk anyone and has the stuff to allow soft contact, so that kind of ERA should be replicated. If that happens, look for similar wins in 2013 from the man who should be the No. 1 starter in Minnesota.

 

  • Jason Hammel – Baltimore Orioles

Before I get into Jason Hammel specifically, I’d like to suggest that think about coupling Hammel and Diamond together on your fantasy team. They achieve similar ERA and WHIP totals, but do so in very different ways. Look at what they would have brought your team in 2012.

  IP H BB ER W-L K ERA WHIP
Diamond/Hammel 291 288 73 113 20-15 203 3.49 1.24

Now that that’s out of the way, Hammel really showed how good he could be when pitching away from Coors Field. That’s not to say that Camden Yards is a pitcher’s palace, but it is against Coors Field.

He does walk a lot of guys, but makes up for it but striking out nearly a hitter an inning. He gets into jams, but knows how to get out of them as well. Again, the home runs aren’t what makes Coors Field tough. It’s the simplicity of getting other hits, along with the homers. In 2012, fewer “other” hits dropped in against Hammel, which dropped his ERA down to a respectable level. Again, homers aren’t the problem. Homers with men on base are.

In our American League East previews, we predicted the Orioles to finish in third place, beating the Yankees. That got a little bit of backlash, but let me clarify a few things. One, we expect the Orioles and Yankees to battle for third place. Two, we expect both teams to be above .500. What that means is that Hammel should get some good run support. If he stays healthy and gets between 170-200 innings, look for a solid year.

 

  • Hisashi Iwakuma – Seattle Mariners

First, let’s take a look at the total numbers that Hisashi Iwakuma put up in 2012.

125.1 innings pitched, 9 wins, two saves, 101 strikeouts, 3.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP. 

Pretty good, but it gets better. You probably noticed two saves in that stat-line. From April-June, Iwakuma was a reliever. When July began, he began his time as a starter for the Mariners. Look at what he did acting solely as a starter.

95 innings pitched, 8 wins, 78 strikeouts, 2.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP. 

No saves, unfortunately, but that’s about half a season as a starter. Multiply that by two and your looking at a very strong fantasy pitcher. When the month of July began, Iwakuma had a season 4.75 ERA, and needed a pretty good June to get to that mark. Again, he finished the year with a 3.16 ERA. He is much better as a starting pitcher and as I detailed in my Mariners preview, I am expecting good things from him this year.

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