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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of June 3

Michael Dixon —  June 3, 2013 — Leave a comment
Photo courtesy of Matthew D. Britt

Photo courtesy of Matthew D. Britt

I can not tell a lie. Last week was not a good one for me.

Something did occur to me though. Just so you guys get an idea of my overall success rate, I’d like to show everyone my up to date numbers with picks.

Total Starts IP ER H BB K ERA WHIP QS W-L
33 196 89 197 58 143 4.09 1.30 16 12-8

Before really judging that, I’d like to show you the combined numbers of three other starters. Take a look.

Total Starts IP ER H BB K ERA WHIP QS W-L
36 221.1 115 215 73 224 4.68 1.30 21 12-16

The three pitchers who have those numbers? Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, and Justin Verlander. They won’t be found on any waiver wires. The point? With waiver wire guys, as well as established aces, all you can really do is play the percentages and hope for the best.

I’ll keep a running tally of my guys’ stats throughout the season. But for now, let’s see who we’re gonna be looking at this week.

 

  • A.J. Griffin, Oakland Athletics — Probable Starts: Tuesday at Milwaukee Brewers, Sunday at Chicago White Sox

I’m genuinely a fan of this guy. A.J. Griffin has the game to pitch away from Oakland. He’s not a strikeout guy, but he can strike hitters out when need be. He’s also had some solid outings against some of the better American League lineups this year. This week, he’ll be facing two of the league’s Bottom-10 scoring offenses. 

That’s a little hard to believe with the Brewers. Their lineup includes the likes of Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, Ryan Braun, and Aramis Ramirez. But for whatever reason, they don’t score runs. Actually, they’re at best middle of the road in most offensive categories. The season is still young but at this point, that’s definitely not a fluke. Also, remember that they’ll be in Milwaukee, so there won’t be a DH. That’s not a huge loss for the Brewers, as they’re used to it. But for Griffin, who’s used to facing a nine-hitter lineup, it will be a nice break.

The White Sox strive to be a middle of the road offense. They rank in the Bottom-5 in nearly every offensive categories. They’re near the bottom of the league in both hits and walks. They’re also below average in home runs hit but being so bad at hits and walks, those home runs rarely put a big dent on the scoreboard.

Griffin has had only one really bad start all year. This is a good week for him to post two more good outings. Additionally, the A’s are a red hot team right now and have a great bullpen. So, you’re looking at two games that really should be wins.

Griffin’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
14 5 12 5 11 2-0 3.21 1.21

 

  • Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia Phillies – Probable Starts: Monday at Miami Marlins, Saturday at Milwaukee Brewers

Like Griffin, Kyle Kendrick is someone that I have written a lot about. There have only been a few rough outings this year for him and going back to the second half of last year, he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Now, I do think he’ll level out at some point — but not this week.

When it comes to playing the odds here, you find better than a pitcher going against the Marlins. They are dead last in just about every major offensive category, and are still without Giancarlo Stanton. We’ve already gone over the Brewers, so no point in repeating myself there.

Kendrick won’t get you big strikeout totals, but he remains a solid option. He knows how to pitch to contact, which means he doesn’t walk many hitters. If you’re ever looking for a good Waiver Wire guy, finding a guy who doesn’t issue free passes is a good bet.

Kendrick’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
13 5 11 4 9 1-0 3.46 1.14

 

  • Jonathan Pettibone, Philadelphia Phillies – Probable Starts: Tuesday at Miami Marlins, Sunday at Milwaukee Brewers

Obviously, we’re talking about the same opponents here. Actually, the Brewers are recommended with all three guys here, which I’m not sure has ever happened.

Again, the Marlins are about as bad as you’ll ever see from a Major League offense, especially without Stanton. So, I’m not too focused on that outing here. But what’s good about Jonathan Pettibone is that he keeps the ball down against all opponents, so he doesn’t surrender many home runs.

That’s what has kept his ERA in the mid 3.00 range (minors and majors), despite a WHIP that leaves a little to be desired. I don’t know that you’re going to see him as a good full time fantasy guy until he finds a way to get his WHIP (especially walks) down. But for these two starts, you’re looking at a pretty good option.

Pettibone’s Projections for the Week

IP ER H BB K W-L ERA WHIP
12 5 12 3 8 1-0 3.75 1.25

 

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Ask Nash: Owners in a Fire Sale

Nash —  May 31, 2013 — 2 Comments
Jeff Loria is no stranger to purging talent. Photo courtesy of Ohad.

Jeff Loria is no stranger to purging talent.
Photo courtesy of Ohad.

This week for the feature Ask Nash question, I thought I would mix it up with a very general type question that we have faced – and will face – at some point in our fantasy careers. League Managers deal with this more than most, as they’re impacted when anyone does it.

What do you do with an owner who is purging talent?

This can look a variety of different ways and I am going to try to touch on as many of them as I can. That means I’m looking at it from a pretty general perspective. But feel free to ask these types of question in a private email, as well as specific player and transaction type questions.

Let’s start with the last place purge:

Often times you can get an owner who finds themselves stuck in dead last and they cannot seem to catch any traction in getting out of the cellar. There are a few options they have at the rest of their season, and 2 of those can be considered talent purges that can throw off the balance of the league.

  1. The cowardly, “white flag approach”. This owner accepts last place 2-3 months into the season and just drops everyone except the minimum required players. They even drop serious talent in favor of fanboy picks, or even worse. I call this cowardly because the owner is trying to save face by “giving up” instead of trying to play it out and just plain failing to get out of last place. Believe me, you’ll get a lot more respect from your league mates by playing it out honestly and legitimately finishing in last place. Anyway, often times this approach is accompanied by a name change.
  2. The classic, “hail mary”.  The owner thinks to themselves, “I gotta take a huge chance and hope it pays off.”  So they go after as many slow starters and struggling players as possible in hopes to catch a whole lot of lightening in a bottle. It can work to get them out of last place and sometimes even gets them back to the middle of the pack or better. However, much like the white flag approach this brings an imbalance to the league by way of their stud players going to teams who are luckily at the top of the waiver order or on the nice end of a crazy trade.

Both of these approaches lack consideration to the rest of the league who are trying to play it out honestly and strategically.

Another form of purging can be through a few or more forms of questionable moves over a period of time. Sometimes this can just be the work of a very irrational owner and some sometimes it can even be a form of collusion. Actually, let’s talk about that for a moment.

I believe that the word collusion can be thrown around a bit liberally in fantasy baseball. There are plenty of leagues where a few members are relatives, or maybe close friends. But generally speaking, everyone in those league knows each other, or there are a few different groups. But way more often than not, it’s hard to call collusion unless a few things are in play.

  1. The people involved are relatives, or close friends. 
  2. One of them is a contender, the other isn’t. One may also care a lot more than the other, even if both or neither are contenders.
  3. They make a series of one-sided trades with each other.
  4. Also, if they’re in a few leagues together (baseball or other sports), the possibility exists that Owner A will help Owner B in this league, while Owner B will help Owner A in another league. If this is a league that carries over from year-to-year, then you may want to think back to previous years. If Owner A is benefiting from a terrible trade from Owner B this year and Owner B benefited from a bad trade from Owner A the year before, this same scenario is possibly in play.
  5. If the league’s favorite is not well liked by a few guys, or has dominated the league for a while.

Not all of these things have to be in play, but if three or more are, keep your eyes open. Again, be careful in throwing around the word “collusion,”  but it does in fact happen and should always be addressed if the evidence is substantial enough.

If you have an owner that has made a few or more questionable moves, a bad trade or some bad add/drops, I see nothing wrong with asking the owner what the deal is. Perhaps they are giving up, hoping for some surprises, or maybe they’re just clueless. Simply asking can help you ascertain that information. The key is to ask in a non-threatening way, of course.

So, for some Do’s and Dont’s:

  • Don’t Accuse: If you come out of the gate accusing the owner in question, the owner will most likely get defensive, and it could get ugly. Also, if your accusation is collusion, you might have two or more owners getting defensive.
  • Don’t Insult: Like I said, it could be a series of honest moves that just didn’t make as much sense outside of the owner’s own head. If you insult the moves it will only make the poor owner feel even worse.
  • Do be Honest: Everyone should be adults about a situation. If you ask about some questionable moves, I would hope the owner would fess up to the reason(s) behind the moves.

Also, if people slam the message boards with questions or angry posts, be open and honest about discussions being had. If people start crying collusion it is best to squelch those thoughts ASAP.

Lastly I want to address something I mentioned earlier and that is the talent balance of the league. Of course no league has perfect talent balance between teams because there is no perfect league wide draft, ever. So I am not saying that our fantasy leagues should be some sort of weird socialistic fantasy league where talent MUST stay evenly distributed the whole season.

Trades happen, add/drops happen, that is the beauty of playing it out. However, when an owner begins to interfere with the organic nature of a fantasy league by blatantly dropping good players with no real rhyme or reason, it should be addressed!

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When to burn a waiver claim.

Clave Jones —  July 31, 2012 — 3 Comments

Ryan Raburn, Nick Markakis
Getting the right players off the waiver wire can give a great boost to your fantasy baseball team or plug a need in your roster. All the cool kids are hitting the waiver wire, so if you aren’t doing it then you need to get in on the action.

For those new to fantasy baseball, let me give you a Waiver Wire 101.

  1. What is true in the majority of fantasy baseball leagues is that when a player is dropped from an owner’s team they are placed on the waiver wire for a period that is typically 3 days.
  2. These players are commonly designated with a “W” and ultimately will become free agents unless they are claimed by a team.
  3. Each team had a priority level for waivers. Immediately after the draft, the first team that drafted will have lowest priority. After a team makes a waiver claim they are in turn given the lowest priority on the next claim. For example, if you have a 10 team league and you make a successful waiver claim then you will drop to the #10 in line for your next claim.
  4. As other teams make claims they are dropped to the bottom of the pile and your team is then bumped up a position. If enough different teams make a claim on a player from the waiver wire in the time since your last pick, then your team will slowly climb toward waiver priority #1.

I know some fantasy baseball owners that will be extremely judicious in using the waiver wire. They’ll let some pretty solid players slide by, hoping they will clear waivers and become free agents, so they don’t need to burn a waiver claim on them. These owners will patiently wait for their team to slowly climb to a top position waiver spot, in hopes that if a really coveted player is unexpectedly dropped to waivers that they can be sure to get them.

Other fantasy baseball team owners will argue that if you save your waiver pick for the perfect opportunity, you neglect to factor in that that allows several good enough opportunities to pass them by. They’ll claim whatever player they want, disregarding the fact that they most likely have little shot if a truly valuable player happens to show up on waivers. I began this post with the picture (by Keith Ellison, who has the absolute best collection of baseball photography on Flickr) of Nick Markakis and Ryan Raburn because I’ve seen those guys claimed off waivers about a dozen times in the leagues I play in.

Do you hoard your high waiver pick, waiting for just the right player to hopefully by available, or do you lay claim to every player that might tickle your fancy? There is a cost involved in burning your waiver claim, so when should you use yours?

  • You should burn your waiver claim on a player that will help your team. If a player is available that would offer a legitimate upgrade and would start right away on your team then you should lay a claim on them. Don’t wait for the perfect opportunity when a good opportunity can be adding stats to your team right away.
  • Burn your waiver claim if you feel lie the odds swing greater than 50/50 that you won’t be able to snatch them as a free agent. I, personally, play the odds all the time. If the player is marginal (like a pitcher you would just be claiming for a spot start or two) then I’ll often take my changes that they will clear waivers and I can grab them as a free agent. Occasionally I’ll lose the clim, but I didn’t lose my waiver position. If the odds are pretty good that he won’t clear waivers though, then you might not want to gamble he becomes a free agent, and just make a claim on him already.
  • Burn your waiver claim if you are at the bottom of the order. If you are claiming 9 out of 10, then you might as well go for it. You aren’t falling that far, right?
  • Burn your waiver claim regardless of your position if the player is just too good to pass up. This is the player you were waiting for. Claim them and stash them even if you don’t quite know what to do with them yet. Other fantasy baseball owners will occasionally make a poor decision and drop a solid player. This is where you have to take advantage of the opportunity.

Fantasy baseball owners play the waiver wire differently. Some seemingly never make a claim, waiting for that perfect haul. Others seem to grab a guy once a week. Ultimately, it’s your team, so roster whoever you want to. I do hope, however, that this helped you think about your waiver wire strategy at least a bit. Then lay claim to your sweet pick-up.

 

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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of June 4

Michael Dixon —  June 4, 2012 — 5 Comments

Jason Vargas

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks. This is a rough week for pitchers, as there aren’t many going twice that I would genuinely advise picking up, at least when looking at who’s likely available to you.

This week, I would look at guys like Ryan Vogelsong, as well. He’s not available in over half of the leagues, but still can be had by a fair amount of owners. Vogelsong is throwing well and has two starts this week, so he’s a nice play.

Also, on a somewhat related note, take a look at Vance Worley. He’s due to come off of the DL. Having said that, I wouldn’t start him this week. Pitchers coming off of an injury tend to be heavily protected, especially young ones. On top of that, his weekend start comes against Baltimore, so this is not his best week. Still, Worley is a solid arm, and you will want him on your side through the summer months.

But enough about those guys. Let’s take a look at some good plays for this week.

 

Jason Vargas - Seattle Mariners

Projected Starts: Monday at Los Angeles Angels. Sunday vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Maybe this sounds like a broken record, as both Nash and myself have written about Jason Vargas recently, but the fact is that he’s been a remarkably consistent pitcher all year.

Vargas has been a quality start machine all year, with only a couple starts that you would call poor efforts, and nothing that you would call awful. Against the Angels two weeks ago, he did take a loss, but his outing was fine. I am not at all nervous that he’ll keep them at bay on Monday.

The Dodgers have been a scuffling offense recently, and will be without Kemp for a while. Yes, they still have other talented hitters, but without Kemp, that offense is quite mortal.

I certainly can’t predict that Vargas will win two games this week, but there’s no reason to expect anything other than two good starts. He’s been doing it all year. Vargas is just a good pitcher. For a guy who enters June with a 3.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, he’s owned in far too many leagues.

Vargas’ Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    14    11      3      4       1     10     2.57     1.00

 

Homer Bailey – Cincinnati Reds

Projected Starts: Tuesday vs. Pittsburgh. Sunday at Detroit Tigers

I’ll be up front about this. The way that Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera are swinging, I would not advise pitching anyone but elite pitchers against them, with one exception. If you’re in a head-to-head league and come Sunday, ERA and WHIP are not concerns. In that case, you don’t have a lot to lose. Since I am actually saying you should bench him, I’ll give game specific projections below.

But looking at that first game this week, it’s hard to not be optimistic. Homer Bailey enters the week with a respectable ERA (3.73) and WHIP (1.26), and beat the Pirates in his last outing. Not only did he beat them, but Bailey threw a complete game. The Pirates are one of the worst offenses in the league and generally one of the better teams to stream against.

Do your own thing on Sunday. but Bailey is a strong bet on Tuesday.

Bailey’s Projections vs. Pittsburgh

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    8     5      1      1      1      6     1.13     0.75

Bailey’s Projections vs. Detroit

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    5     8      3      4      0      3     7.20     2.25

 

Gordon Beckham - Second Baseman, Chicago White Sox

Week’s Schedule: 3 vs. Toronto. 3 vs. Houston

When someone plays a thin position, is available in nearly 80 percent of leagues, and is riding a 10-game hitting streak, it would be hard to recommend you to do anything other than sign him.

The advantages don’t stop there, as Toronto and Houston are statistically average at best in the pitching department, and U.S. Cellular Field is a fine park for hitters. On top of that, the White Sox are playing very good baseball right now, so there will be plenty of help around him.

Gordon Beckham is a streaky hitter. When a streaky hitter is going well, you want him on your team. Give Beckham at least two bad games before kicking him back to the curb.

Beckham’s Projections for the week

    H         AB          R         HR          RBI           SB         AVG     
    8     22      4      2        6       0     .363
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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 28

Michael Dixon —  May 28, 2012 — Leave a comment

Bronson Arroyo 02

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks. Before we get going, I want to wish a Happy Memorial Day to everyone out there. It’s certainly a day to have fun, but take some time to remember what we’re honoring today. I actually got to spend some time last week with some old friends, who are both in the Armed Forces. I am certainly not ashamed to say that these are two of my heroes. They deserve all the praise in the world every day, but certainly today is a day to be thankful to those who serve and have served, whether they’re still with us or not.

Anyway, baseball on Memorial Day is a great tradition. Since it features a lot of unusual Monday day games, most of you guys are probably in a hurry to make some moves for the day, so let’s get to it.

 

Scott Diamond – Minnesota Twins

Projected Starts: Monday vs. Oakland. Sunday at Cleveland

Right off the bat, I should clarify that I am not telling anyone to stream against the Indians. They are a pretty good offense, notably when it comes to getting on base. The purpose of having Dixon’s Picks on Monday, however, is for the benefit of people in weekly league. In roto leagues, one week to the other makes no difference.

So, those in weekly leagues should pick Scott Diamond up for Monday’s start and see how things are looking on Sunday. If you’re in need of some counted stats and aren’t concerned with WHIP and ERA, put Diamond in the lineup on Sunday. If you don’t want to gamble, then don’t.

But while I am not recommending you start him against the Indians, it’s not the worst of ideas. After all, in four starts this year, Diamond has gone against the Angels, Blue Jays, Brewers, and White Sox. While he gives up hits, walks are rare, and the run totals have been respectable. The only time he’s thrown and it wasn’t a quality start was against the Brewers, where he went 5 1/3 and allowed three earned. Not a quality start, but hardly getting shelled.

The A’s are a good offense to stream against at all times. You can decide what to do against the Indians based on your own team, but I am certainly not expecting a terrible outing.

Diamond’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    14    14      2      4       1     11     3.21     1.14

 

Bronson Arroyo – Cincinnati Reds

Projected Starts: Monday at Pittsburgh. Sunday at Houston

Just as a quick note, I stream a lot of players every week. In our head to head league, I rarely ever lose strikeouts, because I stream so often. Now, my K’s per nine innings totals are never high, but that doesn’t matter. If I throw two guys who have a seven-inning, four strikeout game, that’s eight strikeouts, albeit not with a great average. If someone throws one starter who throws seven innings with seven strikeouts, his guy had the better start, but extrapolating that out, my guys will have the better week in that category.

The risk comes with stats like WHIP, which is why I look for low walk guys, which perfectly describes Bronson Arroyo. He enters the week with 58 2/3 innings thrown and 66 hits, not good. But by the same token, Arroyo has only eight walks, leading to a cool WHIP of 1.26. No, that won’t lead the league, but for a guy available in almost 95 percent of leagues, it’s not bad at all.

Arroyo is an especially nice play this week as the Pirates and Astros are both in the bottom-third in most major offensive categories. If you don’t beat yourself with the walk against these teams, you are going to have a good day. Again, I will repeat, eight walks in nine starts. If you don’t like those odds, something’s wrong with you.

He’ll be around the plate against two unimposing offenses. In all, there is nothing that I don’t like about this play.

Arroyo’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    15    14      1      4      2     10     2.40     1.00

 

Jeff Suppan – San Diego Padres. Travis Wood – Chicago Cubs

Projected Starts: Monday vs. each other in Chicago

Both of these guys do go twice this week, but Sunday’s matchups aren’t great. Jeff Suppan will be at home against the Diamondbacks, while Travis Wood will be in San Francisco. Wood is probably the better play there, but I wouldn’t suggest either.

But I am always looking for guys going twice. Taking both starting pitchers when two of the worst offenses in the league are going against each other works for me. As it happens, these pitchers are both available in more than 99 percent of leagues. Obviously, you won’t get two wins, but the other numbers will be quite nice for you.

I look at these offenses, and I don’t see much happening. Wood has been good thus far and Suppan’s struggles have been against far better offenses than the Cubs. Again, you won’t get two wins from one game, but you will be off to a good start in nearly all other statistics.

Suppan and Wood’s Combined Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    13    11      5      4       1      9     2.77     1.23

 

Joaquin Arias – Infielder, San Francisco Giants

Week’s Schedule: 3 vs. AZ, 3 vs. CHC

Arias has a few things working well for him here. For one, he’s swinging too good of a bat for the Giants to even consider benching him. The top of the order guys in San Francisco get on base well, but beyond the five spot, their offense takes a big drop, if Arias is riding the pine, that is. He should not ride the pine for that reason and also, reason number two, his swing is custom built for the gaps of AT&T Park, which is where he will be for all six games this week.

The way that guys like Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, and Buster Posey have been swinging, Joaquin Arias will have plenty of chances to drive runs in. He is swinging a good bat right now, hitting a lot of line drives. With men on base, those will produce runs.

Lastly, what works for Arias is that he has eligibility at second, third, and short, which aren’t the deepest of positions. He reached base in every game last week, even hitting one over the fence. While I am not normally big on average over one week, note that Arias went 0-for-3 on Sunday (drawing a walk to reach base), and still hit .345. Over a week, if you have a guy who goes 0-for-3 one day and still hits at a strong clip that week, it’s a sign that he’s seeing the ball well.

Look for good things to continue, especially against two teams that are near or in the bottom-third of most major pitching pitching categories.

Arias’ Projections for the week

    H         AB          R         HR          RBI           SB         AVG     
    7     24      3      1        5       1     .292
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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 21

Michael Dixon —  May 21, 2012 — Leave a comment

Jerome Williams

Welcome back to Dixon’s picks. I don’t want to waste a lot of your time, so I’ll get in to my picks shortly.

One thing I do want to give a heads up on a project I am working on. I always advise people to look for good matchups when streaming, especially pitchers. This project I am working on is kind of a 2012 cheat sheet for finding a good matchup. There will be two separate lists to look at. One will be a list of teams to stream against, the other will be a list of stadiums that are good for streaming in. I don’t have an exact date for these lists, but I will get it out as soon as possible. After all, it wouldn’t do any good if I came out with this list sometime in November, would it?

So, just file that in your memory bank, and feel free to hit me up if you have any insights for me. For now, let’s take a look at a few good names to look at for this week.

Jerome Williams - Pitcher, Los Angeles Angels

Projected Starts: Monday at Oakland, Saturday at Seattle.

If you tell me that a pitcher is going twice in a week, once against the A’s in Oakland and once against the Mariners in Seattle, I would take it sight unseen and nine times out of 10, walk away just fine. The Athletics and Mariners are both in the bottom 10 in most major offensive categories, which is arguably more important to look at than the actual pitcher.

But looking at the actual pitcher, Jerome Williams has been solid all year. The only two bad starts he’s suffered through came against the Yankees and Rangers. He won’t be opposing those kind of lineups this week.

Yes, Williams does allow some hits, but the walks are rare. A pitcher with an ERA below 4.00 going against these offenses in hitter’s parks is a good play.

Williams’ Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    15    11      5      4       2     10     2.40     1.07

 

Mark Buehrle - Pitcher, Miami Marlins

Projected Starts: Monday vs. Colorado, Saturday vs. San Francisco.

I never like advising to stream someone when they’re playing the Giants in one of their starts, but San Francisco is far from an offensive juggernaut. Also worth noting is that starting two times in Miami’s park is a good thing for just about any pitcher.

Mark Buehrle has been solid this year. Six of his eight starts have been quality starts on the young season, and the other two weren’t exactly dismal efforts. What makes him a nice fantasy option is that he doesn’t walk anyone. In those same eight starts, Buehrle has never issued more than two free passes.

The WHIP of Pitchers that don’t walk anyone can survive, the extra hits that come with being around the plate are essentially the only runners allowed. I don’t Buehrle to get two wins this week, but two more quality starts is to be expected.

Buehrle’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    13    10      4      5       1     11     3.48     1.08

 

J.P. Arencibia - Catcher, Toronto Blue Jays

Monday-Wednesday: at Tampa. Friday-Sunday: at Texas.

Catcher is not exactly a position known for its depth in fantasy. So, when you have one riding a hot streak who is available in nearly 70 percent of leagues, you would be foolish to not give him a really good look. Make no mistake, J.P. Arencibia is on a ridiculous hot streak. Last week, he hit .360 with four homers and 10 RBI.

He doesn’t need to be anywhere near that good this week to be one of the week’s best hitters. Toronto is playing good ball. That will give Arencibia all kinds of opportunities to build his stats throughout the week. His average can be a weak spot but over the span of one week, that doesn’t concern me.

Again, the difference between a good average and a bad one can be one hit, especially when you factor in a catcher’s off days. So, even if he drops down to below .250, it won’t be hard to pick up the slack. This week, look for the power numbers to be there. The average won’t be at .360, but it will be more than respectable.

Arencebia’s Projections for the week

    H         AB          R         HR          RBI           SB         AVG     
    5     19      4      2        6       0     .263
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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 14

Michael Dixon —  May 14, 2012 — Leave a comment

Ryan Vogelsong

Welcome, one and all to another edition of Dixon’s Picks. This is something of a weird week for two reasons.

One, every team plays every day this week. Of course, this excludes rainouts that may happen, but we have  a full slate of games. So, pitchers going on Monday and Tuesday are good streaming plays, especially in counted categories. Barring injuries and again, rainouts, those pitchers will each be going twice this week.

Number two, this weekend will give us the first weekend of Interleague Play. Get used to it, as starting next year, the Astros will be an American League team, each league will have 15 teams, and Interleague Play will be going all year. I will refrain from jamming my traditionalist point of view down everyone’s throat right now, but instead give some advice on how to stream Interleague Play. For that matter, you can take this as some advice on how to draft next year.

The only people that really matter to me are the designated hitters playing in National League parks, like David Ortiz. When the Red Sox are playing in the National League, it’s not a good time to have him. Even if they bite the bullet and play him at first base, it stands to reason that Boston will pull him for defense in the late innings, costing Papi an at-bat or two. So, if you have a guy like that on your team, look for a replacement in weeks where they are playing in NL parks.

As for pitchers, I know of some people who pretty much don’t ever roster American Leaguers. In this case, you have to look for National Leaguers in AL parks. I don’t buy that idea. While it is tougher to face an American League lineup, it’s also easier to go deep in a game, as managers don’t have to worry about the pinch hitter.

When streaming pitchers in Interleague Play, use the same strategies as normal. If the pitchers are going against a bad offense, give them a green light. If they are going against the Yankees or Red Sox, don’t trick yourself into thinking streaming is a good idea if that team is in a National League park.

So, now that we’ve gotten off of that sidebar, let’s take a look at some good guys to stream this week.

 

Ryan Vogelsong – Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

Projected Starts: Monday vs. Colorado, Saturday vs. Oakland

AT&T Park is a stadium that’s almost always a good luck for streaming. So, having someone going twice there in a week is a good thing.

It’s not exactly news that the Rockies are not the same offensive team away from Coors Field. They never play particularly well in San Francisco, so the first start is a fine one to go on.

As for the A’s, they haven’t won in San Francisco since 2008. Ironically, the Giants haven’t won in Oakland since 2009, but we’ll get into that next month.

Regardless of who wins or where the game is, these teams tend to play close, low scoring games when they collide. Yes, there are exceptions, but for the most part, those came in years when the teams had much more offensive talent. With Yoenis Cespedes and Pablo Sandoval out, these games aren’t going to feature a lot of runs.

I like Ryan Vogelsong to get two wins this week. But he’s a good play because even if he gets zero, the other numbers will be there.

Vogelsong’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    14    10      6      4       2     12     2.57     1.14

 

Jeanmar Gomez – Pitcher, Cleveland Indians

Projected Starts: Monday at Minnesota, Saturday vs. Miami

Part of streaming is that you have to be willing to gamble on occasion. Sure, there are bigger names likely available to you, but Jeanmar Gomez has been a solid arm thus far this season. The problem with pitchers and their numbers is that this early in the season, it doesn’t take much to inflate things.

Entering the week, Gomez has a 4.66 ERA. But, if he allowed four earned runs instead of eight in his last start against a powerful White Sox lineup, his ERA would be sub-3.50. Take that for whatever it’s worth.

Against the Twins and Marlins, I like his chances at a few quality starts. Even better is that the less risky start is the first one. If you’re in a head to head league or get some good starts in roto, you might be in a position where you can afford to bench Gomez in Saturday’s start against the Marlins.

All in all, I like this play – and Gomez is available in over 99 percent of ESPN leagues.

Gomez’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    13     9      5      5       1     11     3.46     1.08


Raul Ibanez – Left Fielder/Designated Hitter, New York Yankees

Monday-Tuesday: at Baltimore. Wednesday-Thursday: at Toronto. Friday-Sunday: vs. Cincinnati.

We’ve all established why streaming hitters is a shaky idea, especially as it relates to batting average. Take my last week’s pick, Chipper Jones. Last week, he hit a paltry .238. Bad pick, right? Well, if he got one more hit, he would have been at .285. So, it doesn’t take much to pick up the slack. Still, some people stream hitters, especially with injuries. So, let’s take a look at Ibanez.

The American League East is a good division to hit in. So, when a hot hitter is going against AL East pitching in four of seven games, and in an AL East stadium all week, things are looking good. Ibanez is making the most out of his playing time, as he hit over .350 last week with four homers.

In all, this is a good play. Raul Ibanez is a type to worry about losing at bats in Interleague Play, but it’s all AL parks this week. The average is of course a gamble, but a hot hitter in the Yankees lineup batting in hitter’s parks is going to produce some power numbers.

Ibanez’s Projections for the week

    H         AB          R         HR          RBI           SB         AVG     
    7     23      7      3        9       0     .304
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Dixon’s Picks: Waiver Wire Additions for the Week of May 7

Michael Dixon —  May 7, 2012 — 2 Comments

Braves vs. Diamondbacks

Welcome back to Dixon’s Picks, where we take a good look at some players to at least take a look at signing for the upcoming week of action.

As is always the case, an emphasis will be placed on pitching, but I will never completely neglect hitting.

Without further adieu, let’s take a look at some available players that promise to have a big week. I know that you would rather they have a big week for you than for someone else, so make it happen.

 

Carlos Zambrano – Pitcher, Miami Marlins

Projected Starts: Monday at Houston, Sunday vs. New York Mets

Big Z has been a strong arm this year, throwing a quality start in four of his five starts on the young season. Heck, even the one start that didn’t fall in that category was a six inning, four earned run affair at Cincinnati in his first outing; that is hardly getting shelled.

So, despite not having a win on the season, he enters the week with a 2.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.19. I will take that any day of the week.

You could say that the first start of the week is something of a gamble. The Astros are hitting pretty well as a team right now, and Minute Maid Park is friendly to the hitter. Personally, I would take the gamble, as Zambrano is throwing well enough to justify it.

Sunday against the Mets is a much better bet. The Mets do get on base at a nice clip, but they have little to no power. As a result, they are one of the league’s worst scoring teams through the first month. Don’t look for that to change when they go on the road to the pitcher friendly Marlins Park.

As of this writing, Carlos Zambrano is available in over 90 percent of ESPN leagues. Going twice in the week in decent to good matchups, he’s worth adding.

Zambrano’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    14    11      5      5       1     10     3.00     1.14

 

Erik Bedard – Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates. Ross Detwiler – Pitcher, Washington Nationals

Projected Starts: Wednesday, vs. each other (at Washington)

With respects to Nash, we’re going to call this my own version of coupling. If only one of these players is available to you, then that person will be a solid pickup. But the greatest value will come if both are available. In that case, I suggest that you pick both up.

Each man is only throwing once this week. Obviously, between the two, you’re not going to get anything more than one win. But the Nationals and Pirates are two of the bottom offenses in the league. So, while you’re potentially losing one win when compared to what someone going twice will bring, the rest of the numbers are going to be solid.

This is the kind of game that we can completely expect to be in the 3-2 range. Combined, I am looking at these guys to bring a lot of value.

Erik Bedard will bring the strikeouts, while Ross Detwiler will be consistently around the plate, limiting walks.

On the young season, Detwiler has an ERA of 1.59 and a WHIP of 0.99, with 21 strikeouts in 28-and-one-thirds innings. Bedard’s WHIP is a little higher at 1.41, but his ERA is a stellar 2.65 with 37 strikeouts in 34 innings. We’re going to see a well pitched game in Washington on Wednesday. I’ll accept one possible fewer loss to have both pitchers going in a pitcher’s duel.

Bedard & Detwiler’s Combined Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    16    10      5      4       1     15     2.25     0.94

 

Philip Humber – Pitcher, Chicago White Sox

Projected Starts: Monday at Cleveland, Sunday vs. Kansas City

The Chicago pitching rotation is going to be a little off base this week because it starts with a double-header, but they have a Thursday off day, which should normalize the rotation and give Philip Humber is second start of the week over the weekend.

Humber had a start last Thursday against the Indians. While he did struggle, he still struck out six hitters in six innings, while allowing only three runs. That is not a bad thing to have in your back pocket to get the week going. But the start I really like him in this week is over the weekend against the struggling Royals.

Kansas City is just not scoring runs this season, and Humber’s already shown us that he can work well against a slumping offense. No, I am not projecting a perfect game, but I am looking for a solid start.

The start in Cleveland may not be that great, but there’s every reason to believe that Humber will keep the damage down, at least in terms of who crosses the plate against him. Also, Humber has stuck out hitters at better than one per inning this year. At the very least, you know that one category will be filled up quite well.

Humber’s Projections for the week

    IP         H         BB         ER          W           K         ERA        WHIP    
    13     9      6      5       1     15     3.46     1.15

 

Chipper Jones – Third Baseman, Atlanta Braves

Monday-Wednesday: at Chicago Cubs. Friday-Sunday: at St. Louis Cardinals

Jones’ Projections for the week

Considering Chipper Jones plays a position that currently has three of its top players on the disabled list, I am guessing a lot of you are looking to fill some gaps right now at the hot corner. Jones is a future Hall of Famer and while his best days are behind him, he’s playing like a Hall of Famer right now.

Jones had three different three-hit games last week and managed a .429 average with seven runs, two homers, and nine RBI. You do need to realize that Chipper will probably have a day off or two, but when he’s in the lineup, the production is there.

The Braves offense is also clicking right now, as they are in the Top 10 in most major categories, first in baseball in runs scored, especially impressive for a National League team.

There will be no shortage of RBI chances for Chipper, and plenty of opportunities to score runs as well.

Jones’ Projections for the week

    H         AB          R         HR          RBI           SB         AVG     
     6      19      5      1        8       0     .316


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R.A. Dickey: Get him while he’s hot!

Michael Dixon —  April 17, 2012 — Leave a comment

RA Dickey

Folks, I have to admit to being a little confused about something, and I am really looking for your help. I guess the best way to get an answer is to just ask the question, so why is R.A. Dickey not on more fantasy rosters?

As of right now, he’s owned in less than 10 percent of ESPN leagues. This is puzzling, to say the least. I know that I have written that I like to stockpile depth in pitching, and also stream. While those strategies have worked for me, others do have different strategies, that’s fine.

With Dickey, we’re not just looking at a guy to stream in against a bad offense, or to add depth. This guy is good. Let’s take a look at Dickey’s overall production in his two years as a Met, and you can judge for yourself.

W K ERA WHIP
2010 11 104 2.84 1.19
2011 8 134 3.28 1.23

 

We can start with the negatives. The main one is that the Mets are likely going to be a distant fifth place in the National League East. All four of their rivals have been pegged as at least good threats to win the division, while the Mets are more in the “If everything breaks right, they could win about 80 games” range.

Expecting anything more than about 12 wins would be being optimistic, and I only give that number because he’s currently 2-0 in only two starts.

The strikeouts aren’t great, but I don’t see that as an overall negative. See, with very few exceptions, guys who strike out a lot of hitters also walk a lot of hitters. There are exceptions, but those are elite names, and I don’t think that writing about Roy Halladay is going to do anyone any good, it’s not like he’s available to you.

But Dickey hardly walks anyone, hence a low WHIP. While he will occasionally allow some hits, the ERA shows that those don’t tend to score. Citi Field is still a nice pitcher’s park, and he plays half of his games there.

While knuckleballs do get hit, it’s usually not very hard. You can dink and dunk your way to a few hits, but it’s extremely hard to turn those into serious run-scoring rallies without a shot to the gap, or at least a clean shot to the outfield. Dickey doesn’t allow many of those, so not many runs cross the plate.

I’ll tell you what else Dickey does, because the ERA and WHIP are so reliably low. With a guy like that, you can afford to bring in guys on teams like the Red Sox and Yankees. These pitchers will win a lot of games, but it’s doubtful that they will have a low ERA or WHIP. Look at the currently injured John Lackey’s 2011 season. His ERA and WHIP were abysmal, but still managed 12 wins.

You can mold Dickey along with one of those types into a pretty decent duo.

Now, if you’re in a league with me, you’re out of luck. If Dickey was available after the draft, I nabbed him. But if you’re in what appears to be many other leagues, there is a very reliable arm in many different formats waiting to be claimed. I wouldn’t waste much time doing so.

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Replacing Jacoby Ellsbury

Nash —  April 16, 2012 — 10 Comments

Alejandro De AzaLast week I wrote about how I disagreed with Jacoby Ellsbury being touted as an MVP type fantasy baseball player.

Even though I never saw a shoulder subluxation coming,(because I just would have said, “dislocation,” like a normal person)  I didn’t say he was not valuable to your fantasy baseball team. In fact, he was very valuable and now we have to try to replace him with waiver wire guys.

This is no short order. It was reasonable to expect Jacoby to be a 20/40 guy and a lock for 110 runs scored.  So where are we gonna find a guy in free agency that can get us remotely close to those numbers?

 

Well here are some guys that might still be available in your leagues:

  1. First is the hot outfielder Alejandro De Aza. He’s currently RF eligible but needs just 3 more appearances to gain CF eligibility for those that need it.  He is hitting well, getting on base even more, can run and is hitting leadoff for an offense that is better than I expected.  I nabbed him in one of my leagues already. In our CrackerJack 5×5 reader league he was already rostered before I could get him so the word is out.
  2. Second is a guy who is off to a slow start but is starting to come alive: Brennan Boesch.  He is hitting 2nd so he may not get you over 100 runs, but he could being that is hitting in front Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder!  Also, hitting second means that he will get you closer to Jacoby in the RBI column than most other options.  Unfortunately, he probably won’t be as useful in the steals column.
  3. Third is Jordan Schafer. He is also dealing with a little injury issue right now, but if he avoids missing time he could be a nice option replacing Ellsbury in terms of steals, even on a terrible team like Houston.

Now let me be clear, these guys are nothing better than band-aids for the Jacoby size wound to your lineup. All are short term if Ellsbury misses just the initially thought 6-8 weeks.

Here’s what I would do: pick up one of these guys, hope you guess right on which one will stay hot longest, and try to couple them with probably a pitcher to get a legit replacement.  Try Drew Stubbs, Desmond Jennings or even the still injured Carl Crawford (if LF, CF doesn’t matter) as they would be great additions in the short and long term and are guys you’d love to have alongside Ellsbury upon his return.

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